Posts posted by Old_Observer
On 5/6/2020 at 5:42 PM, Oodweyne said:
That is all there is to it. And what Kenya and Ethiopia are doing now over Somalia is essentially what the Yanks call "dick contesting", in terms of measuring who is (anatomically speaking) a "well-endowed" in some such competition in relation to the other one (as it were).
Just watched late Carlin the comedian of the "dick contesting" theory. Its so incredibly sureal.
Kenyans have always been able to avoid military activities. I think their short MauMau experience has thought them something. No matter how much you win militarily sometimes you come out the loser at the end of the day.
It seems the place of Economy in ones survival is well understood by the Kenyans. Ethiopia is the opposite. Will go to military talk in empty stomach.
On 5/6/2020 at 9:38 PM, galbeedi said:
If Trump is re-elected , America will cease to be the lone power.
And if Trump is not re-elected it will cease to be a power and its continuity extremely uncertain.
The Russian guy's prediction/theory of 4 countries may come to pass.
On 5/7/2020 at 10:16 AM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:
Xabashiland reporting credible positive coronavirus numbers second day in a row. What is going on? Wax ayaa jiro.
SOL has been part of the scene for many years.
Don't be shy.
20 hours ago, galbeedi said:
Could you imagine the so called opposition want to take the power without winning any elections. They are campaigning for transitional government if the elections are not held on time.
Abiy should never accept a vacuum or any means to create chaos and interfere with his legitimacy. If the term of the government ends September 2020, the current government will continue to rule and can only be replaced through elections.
The TPLF is daring Abiy Ahmed in order to lead toward chaos and war. If I were him, I would not fire any bullet toward the Tigray enclave which is landlocked. All you have to do is blockade them from essential goods including fuel. THey will starve in few months.
There is too many oppositions and not even two organizations can make alliance that lasts more than a week.
There is more than 100 registered groups, parties, fronts etc.
The country can never develop since will never have one direction of movement.
You are too invested in Abiy to see what can very quickly change. You are part of Kililka split at this time. A split almost always based on alliances with outsiders rather than internal interest issues.
On 5/7/2020 at 10:35 AM, Che -Guevara said:
Me thinks Abiy and his main side do not trust each other.
His temporary allies are afraid that if he consolidates power, they will be the first to go take a hike.
PM Abiy also feels that if he gives too much role to his temporary allies, he will be the first to go.
Too many groups with so far distance interests. Who ever has America, French, British side will win as always.
On 5/5/2020 at 3:16 PM, cadnaan1 said:
This was deliberate attack on civilians plane it was only 2000 ft high when it was shot down they could clearly see what kind plane it was
Don't expect the Ethiopians to put their soldiers who did this under investigation.
The Farmaajo government is beholden to them and cannot even speak let alone do something which does not have the capacity.
Just one more sign when one is beholden to somebody for protection.
Farmaajo administration hands and now mouth are tied and tight. What is important to know to other plane operators is what kind of hand or role the Farmaajo administration had in this unnecessary and total without even doubt of justification.
I am suspicious of any Somali real or claiming, that says one of the two time wasting objectives:
1. We Somalis should ally with this or that group to rule Ethiopia. Every horse saddle is made for its lord they say in the west. Ethiopia is made for the Xabeshi by Xabeshi and Europeans together. If a Somali wants to riule it the Somali has to change it from the ground up otherwise the saddle will be too uncomfortable to sit on for more than a day or few days.
2. We Somalis should right now focus on uniting all Somalis in one country, one flag, one state. That is also idea for next generation or next decades, but not right now. It is waste of resource, time and energy at the moment.
These are two of the obvious ideas that sound good, easy to accuse others like Illey, and easy to cover one's alliance with non-Somali interest groups.
Jawar thinks the Tigray are just sending trial balloon from the Executive and not from the CC or Assembly. Jawar is also suspicious that Abiy and Eritrea have certain conexion with the Tigray and Jawar thinks the Oromo should not tip his hand to either side.
What makes you think the Somali should be party to some game that is so remote from the Somali.
Who ever wins the tussle or competion in Xabesha land is for themselves not for the Somali, at the end of the day. If the Jawar Oromo wins, they will be running to form alliance with Amxara or Tigray to rule the place. The Amxara will be running to find an Oromo side to stand with them to rule the place. We have seen the Tigray ruling the place for 30 years with at least half the Oromo siding with them including the Jawars.
Practical issues Kililka can achieve:
1. Unity based on full and complete autonomy from Xabeshi. (Eductaion, Culture, Media, Development plans and direction, local administrations, security..at the top)
2. The Ethiopian government to involve Kililka in its work with Somalis in Djibouti and other regions. It means a Kililka interest rep should be there at every Ethiopian embassy or Consulate. This method is common in federal countries.
3. Kililka be free to join some activities with other Somalis in East Africa. Culturl and language institutes. Same as Turkic peoples have in Euro asia and middle east together.
All this does not need Amxara, Tigray or Oromo. It only needs strong Somali, and friendly relatons with Afar and Oromo the two bordering Ethiopian regions and people.
8 hours ago, Tillamook said:
Bet against “Merika” at your own peril.
That was the case for every empire, but the world always have betting side.
The fact that America is sanctioning, militarily hitting..at every thing seemingly against it, tells you that America feels time is not on its side and has to act fast and furious at everything that moves.
All Empires run out of money before they run out of fighting soldiers.
5 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:
Actually, blacks are the hardest hit group. They are barely recovering the great recession and now this. The angry whites are the ones who used to be in the manufacturing industry which has been shipped to China and beyond. In the 50s and 60s, if you worked, let's say for Ford Company, you lived comfortably, bought a house, raised a family, and retired with a good pension. That's no longer the case.
The blue-worker whites are simply finding out how bad others had it.
Blacks are out of the game no matter how the game goes.
If the game is money..Blacks are out
If the game is guns..Blacks are out
If the game is having leaders and organization..Blacks are out
If the game is sacrifice for common good...Blacks are out
Why did the Ethiopians shoot the plane?
Either a threat to them or asked for help by SFG should be the reasons for such action. Which one is it in this case?
Did Farmaajo government play a dirty game here of using an Ethiopian commander bypassing regular communications?
You are too deep in the country. You cannot fight your way out of there. You are in Confederate country.
But you can secure a territory if you have some friends or friends of necessity then.
America pretty soon will be ungovernable.
Each side will not be governed by the other. Trump has no chance, but to polarize further the situation and get other side to blink.
Or make war with China or Russia somewhere else other than their territories.
But then the Russians have no chaoice, but to end it all from the get go.
Catch 22 for ALL
From what has been said so far by Ethiopians who are protectors of SFG is:
Nobody told us the plane is with proper permits and no threat.
Nobody from SFG informed us about the plane.
What the Xabeshi are saying is very credible. Nobody from Farmaajo side told them that plane is safe, secure, in good order and peaceful non military non security mission.
There would be nothing on the Black Box about this.
Ethiopians did not communicate, they just shot the plane. There is no exchange between Ethiopians and the plane.
The Ethiopians have spoken already. Farmaajo and Co. did not tell them that the plane has permit and everything is in order. They shot the plane in self and SFG protection.
14 hours ago, Holac said:
What does this mean Old Observer?
I think they are doing it for their own local public consumption. Jawar does not seem to impressed, since Jawar now feels the Eritrean is coming third time to take the Oromo out of the top and all prefer to use Tigray if possible rather than Amxara who has proven to be incompetent and unwelcome by most nationalities.
Unless Abiy does soemthing military, all the jostling maybe fake or he has no confidence on the Amxara and is afraid of Oromo and or Tigray taking the initiative.
11 hours ago, galbeedi said:
Old O usually does not comment Tigray issues only Somali issues.
The TPLF is playing with fire. The federal parliament will decide whether to amend the constitution or set up another date since the term of government ends in October. these are the same despots who controlled 99% of the parliament and refused any democratic changes.
Abiy should give them the same medicine. A landlocked Tigray can not go anywhere.
I think you are missing the most important issue. I hope it is not on purpose.
The fight/competition between Amxara and Tigray and Eritrea which so far is another Tigray is "who comes/stays on top"
The fight/competition among Somali is who can best keep the autonomy and strengthen if possible.
If one of them loses, they only loose being on Top, but you know that, unless you have joined the weakness of some Kililka politicians that says "too hell with autonomy if its going to be always Oodweyne's bigfoot brethern, the loss is a century's achievement and will be near impossible to bring back.
As for Abiy and Tigray, follow Jawar and see what he thinks. He knows better than you and I on this, since Abiy has to first keep the Oromo's. Jawar feels that Abiy will make concessions to Tigray and keep both Tigray and Amxara at bay and fight the Oromo and Somali until they are completely in the bag.
I am not sure who is sending the Arabs to do such a dirty and cruel work in Libya? You would think Arabs would feel bad of what NATO did to Libya and work to restore a government.
The Only country I can understand what they are doing is Egypt, the water carriers of anyone that has money or power. Shameful messengers of Europeans, Arabs, America, Israel....Egypt has no self respect.
What the Arabs are doing is called You see the grass, but not the cliff. Too bad that both Somalia and Yemen have been taken out of the action by their own as well as foreigners. Oman is cautious. Djibouti does not want to behave lie Arabs.
See what I was talking about the Turkish having principles? The Turkish from time to time may deal with unsavory guys here and there, which everyone cannot avoid doing, but generally they have principles and stay higher level.
Erdogan: Vaccine should be made for all humanity and Turkey will announce its contribution of Money, effort, Science and Technology in May 23.
Half the population suspects the Abiy regime of playing games with Coronavirus and are mistrustful to testing.
The mistrust of Abiy by Ethiopians is an infinitely more than that of Kenyatta. So if its this big of problem in Kenya, its more of problem in Xabeshilands.
On 4/30/2020 at 7:27 PM, Che -Guevara said:
These Gulf Arabs are all spoiled children. No matter how much money they have, there are certain things money cannot buy. Culture, intelligence, dignity, faith..etc
The Turkish may have dealt with some bad guys here and there, but basically have principles and for the most part sticking to their principles. Almost in every case standing for the poor, weak, oppressed, unjustly treated..etc.
It is to be expected.
They could have said they do not have capacity to test or tell the dead what was the main illness/reason they died.
The numbers do not make sense even for one neighborhood in Addis Ababa let alone for the country.
As shown Ethiopian airlines did not change any of its flights. 4 or 5 flights to china daily.
On 5/1/2020 at 2:53 PM, Oodweyne said:
That is a bit rich coming from the likes of Turkey, given that they were supporting various Jihadi outfits in Syria, from one time to another. And on top of that, the current outfit they support in Libya is no more of a legitimate government ruling all over Libya any more than a "bunch of brigand" or a "collection of bandits" with "UN's legal mandate" to their name, can be called a proper government of a State. So it's all a silly and tendentious argument from top to bottom.
But that is what one would expect to hear from the likes of Sultan Erdogan of Anatolia and his current ruling government nowadays since they have the lost "strategical plot" a long time ago in terms of what is the essence of Turkey's strategical and regional's position ought to have been.
And that is particularly the case, given that one day she (i.e., Turkey) is a friend with Russia, and the next day she is spitting blood about Russia's action in the region, whilst at the same time, she is cooing with all sorts of seductive talks of how good she is with the Yanks instead. And the third following day, of course, she will be talking aloud of "making peace" with all of her neighboring States, including Iranians, before the Yanks call them up (in the dead of the night in Turkey's time), and proceed to say to her: "no you can't do that".
So, I really don't put too much stock of what Turks says about anything, at least since, men like Mr. Gul and others of the heavy-weight strategical thinkers within the current ruling party of that country, left the political scene on the account of falling out with the Sultan Erdogan and his merry band of "yes-men" and the cheap minions of that sorts, who seems to be around him nowadays.
Do not be too harsh on the Turkish. Especially you being from England the home of the British Empire, home of hypocritical methodology/perfection.
Its hard for your camp, but UAE by all accounts is playing, childish, cruel games by the weak especially in Yemen and Libya and also in Syria.
The Turkish cannot be blamed for consistency, which shows that in good or bad times the Turkish have some principles. That is why in Yemen, Libya and Syria, but also in Iraq, Iran, Saudi, Kwait..etc the Turkish are consistent.
7 hours ago, galbeedi said:
Folks, breaking news from Hargeisa.
A large number of soldiers were dispatched to the house of vice president Zaylici tonight.
Looks like Bixi gets called to Ethiopia and a coup or some weird things happen. That looks like what Abiy and Farmaajo would do, but Bixi would be experienced enough to avoid it/escape it.
Turkey accuses UAE of supporting terror Al-Shabaab.
Turkish side is involved in Qatar, Syria, Libya, Yemen (humanitarian agencies), Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, Venezuela, Iran, Euro-asia..etc.
They face some temporary set backs in some places like Sudan and Syria..but over all they are marching forward.
The Greeks have realized this and are desperately trying to find a way to have living arrangement with Turkish.
UAE on the other hand is a helper trying to appear as driver. Might look as driver in poor places like HoA, but everywhere else they are exposed. Even in HoA the likes of UAE are not highly respected or feared in likes of Djibouti.