Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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9 hours ago, Suldaanka said:You have to help me here Maakhiri, show us the 'real history' that you are talking about. Anyone can make claims and counter-claims. But in the end, the facts speak for themselves.
I know that I am questioning all that you were thaught from younger age and it is hard to reconcile this with your preconceived feel-good-stories passed down from one clan story-teller to another and which has since cemented itself as truism and no one actually bothered to apply the BS factor filter through it.
Every clan has their own feel-good stories. But that is not 'real history'.
Suldan of Warsangali was trying to bargain a little more for his own clan. There is nothing nationalistic about that. Every clan has done it.
And speaking of ancestors, at least my ancestors once ruled the whole region. They actually done it, not dreamed about it. Emir Sharmarke Cali Salah's administration in Zeila ruled from Tojorah in Danakil to Erigavo in Sanaag to Harar City, at one time.
Probably should re-read the history of what led to Somaliland becoming a protectorate rather than a colony of the UK. It had a lot to do with the rulers of Zeila and what happened in 1870s after Sharmarke's death.
Again, I am not here to talk about ancestors. I am here for actual answers to the questions I raised earlier.
'Somali Nationalism' doesn't go beyond clan interest, it begins with clan interest and stops at clan interest.
That is true, but clan interests coincide and that means 2 clans.
Few Clans preferred Britain than France or Italy. Then or now in hindsight they were better off.
The only fairly clear fight between Somali and colonizers was Puntland. Even after defeat Italy could not put its tax collectors or administrators, bases..in Puntland.
Somaliland also achieved the next best deal. Protectorate rather than outright colony. Makes big difference.
You may think Somalilands bargain was to preserve balack/white, Muslim/Christian, Somali structure/direct imperial structure and not Somali nationalism.
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6 hours ago, Apophis said:I don’t know why people take Cagjar seriously.
He was a junior UN employee who occasionally “penned” badly thought out “articles”, which in a nation of illiterates, made him some philosophical genius.
In a way, he is no different to Farmajo, he was selected because they knew his limitations, and they knew he would not take these people far.
Don't underestimate the power of government. He can weaken and destroy Liyu, He can corrupt some persons or provinces, he can split ONLF...few things he can do. All these are instructions/wishes by PM Abiy and Amxara as well.
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5 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:Have u checked latest poll, Trump went up by 5%, if continues , tribal warfare, will get re-elected.
These 4 squad novice girls are walking into trap, Pelosi gets it.
100%
He has to win otherwise civil war 2
His are armed and evrywhere. Left, Democrats, Gays, Communists...not aremed, not cohesive, no discipline, no sacrifice...
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On 7/16/2019 at 5:14 AM, cadnaan1 said:China had 7 States before it was united by man called Qin he was fed with the 7 States had non stop wars between them each state was attacking the other and he united them by force.
Somali people had similar opportunity almost peacefylly.
NFD, Kililka, Somaliland, Somalia at the end of WWII.
The British were the financiers and with most interest and enthusiasm. A Conference of all Somalis from all regions was held. The conflicts from the 1900-1920s fresh in their experience and also the expected competion with the roaming and expanding tribes...did not work.
1. The British Empire was closing shop and house keeping. NFD and Somaliland that have no trouble, stays in British Empire for any future considerations.
2. King Haileslassie was given offer of Zeylac and 10 to 20km wide access. He rejected instead asked for Eritrea.
3. Some lands from British control, which was taken from Menelik just for security reasons only was returned/given to Ethiopia.
4. British through UN decided Italy to stay 10 years. British as winners were not interested in taking over Somalia. British stayed 10 years in Eritrea. Wanted to divide Eritrea in half between Sudan and Ethiopia. America rejected and Gave all to Ethiopia and America opened military base in Eritrea stayed next 25 years. 4-5 thousand Americans.
That time when British were in a hurry to go, America was new to being super power and in charge, Soviets were in terrible shape, france was on its knees, Arabs were just camel herders like Somalis with something starting, then the Somali had best chance. There was no imposing leader who can talk well to those in doubt, make legal guarantee to those who really were afraid, read poems and songs for those enthusiastic.
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A leading Arab newspaper referred to Riyadh's failures in its internal and foreign policies, stressing that the Saudi-led coalition in war on Yemen is collapsing after the UAE left the Yemen war.
"After the gap created in the Saudi-UAE coalition, imminent changes are waiting for the region and considerable changes will be made in the regional power balance to the detriment of the Saudi-led coalition," the Arabic-language al-Quds al-Arabi paper wrote on Tuesday.
It added that after the Saudi-led coalition persuaded the US to launch a war against Iran, its difficulties and destructive impacts were revealed and therefore the Americans avoided such a war which would annihilate all sides, noting that the Yemeni forces' advances and reinvigorating their side of the military balance also made it difficult for Riyadh to end the war militarily and therefore, Riyadh is after a political solution with unclear results.
"The UAE may retrieve a part of its balance after withdrawing forces from Yemen and decreasing tensions with Iran but Saudi Arabia will lead the region and itself to a catastrophe by continuing its current policies," the paper underlined.
The New York Times reported on Saturday that the UAE had pulled most of its forces from the Yemen “quagmire” in a “face-saving” decision that has deeply upset its Saudi allies.
UAE officials have been saying for several weeks that they have begun a phased and partial withdrawal of forces, estimated at 5,000 troops a few years ago.
However, significant reduction has already occurred, The NY Times quoted Western and Arab diplomats briefed on the drawdown as saying.
Over the past month, the UAE has cut its deployment around the strategic Red Sea port of Hudaydah by 80 percent to fewer than 150 men, according to people briefed on the drawdown. They have pulled out their attack helicopters and heavy guns, effectively precluding a military advance on the city.
The UAE, according to a senior Emirati official, announced the drawdown is intended to support a shaky United Nations-brokered ceasefire in Hudaydah that came into effect in December.
The drawdown, the daily said, is “a belated recognition that a grinding war that has killed thousands of civilians and turned Yemen into a humanitarian disaster is no longer winnable”.
The Associated Press also quoted experts as saying that the troop drawdown aims to restore the Persian Gulf country's reputation, even though it may strain ties with Saudi Arabia at a time of heightened tensions with Iran.
“The Emiratis are driven mostly by their desire to exit a war whose cost has become too high, even if it means angering their Saudi allies,” the newspaper added.
The paper quoted Mike Hindmarsh, a retired Australian major general who commands the Emirati presidential guard, recently telling Western visitors that Yemen had become a quagmire where the Houthis were the “Yemeni Viet Cong”.
The drawdown “is going to expose the Saudis to the reality that this war is a failure”, stated Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute, a research group in London.
“It tells us the two main protagonists on the coalition side, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, don’t have the same idea of what success looks like,” he told The Times.
According to diplomats, the Saudis were “deeply disappointed” by the Emirati decision.
“Top officials with the royal court personally intervened with the Emirati leaders to try to dissuade them from the drawdown,” a Western diplomat familiar with the matter was quoted as saying.
The Emiratis have avoided publicly announcing their decision in part to minimize the unhappiness of the Saudis, noted several people briefed by the Emiratis.
Western diplomatic sources announced in late June that the UAE was scaling back its military presence in Yemen as worsening US-Iran tensions “threatened security closer to home”, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia and a number of its regional allies launched a devastating campaign against Yemen in March 2015, with the aim of bringing the government of former Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi back to power and crushing the Ansarullah movement.
The war has been unsuccessful to this day, and reports have revealed cracks in the coalition in the form of differences between Hadi and the UAE, which has reportedly gained oversized influence in southern Yemen.
Tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi — yet to play out in full display — could have major consequences for the Saudi-led coalition, which has for more than four years been fighting a war it hoped to finish in a matter of weeks.
In May, the UAE reportedly deployed dozens of Southern separatists on the Yemeni island of Socotra in the Arabian Sea as divisions grew in the Saudi-led coalition over Abu Dhabi’s military build-up on the strategic island.
Citing sources close to Hadi, the Middle East Eye news website earlier reported that Hadi was angry at Emirati forces for acting “like an occupation power” in Yemen.
Despite Riyadh's claims that it is bombing the positions of the Ansarullah fighters, Saudi bombers are flattening residential areas and civilian infrastructures. Weddings, funerals, schools and hospitals, as well as water and electricity plants, have been targeted, killing and wounding hundreds of thousands.
According to a December 2018 report by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), a nonprofit conflict-research organization, the Saudi-led war has claimed the lives of over 60,000 Yemenis since January 2016.
Save the Children, a charity, has reported that more than 84,700 children under the age of five may have starved to death in Yemen since the Saudi regime and a coalition of its allies launched the brutal war on the already-impoverished nation.
France, the United States, the United Kingdom and some other Western countries have faced criticisms over arms sales to the Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose aggression against Yemen has affected 28 million people and caused what the United Nations calls “one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world". According to the world body, Yemen is suffering from the most severe famine in more than 100 years.
A UN panel has compiled a detailed report of civilian casualties caused by the Saudi military and its allies during their war against Yemen, saying the Riyadh-led coalition has used precision-guided munitions in its raids on civilian targets.
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UAE has pulled out of Yemen, or has told Houthis its pulling out. Too risky. Few Houthi drones can destroy its market, tourism, everything
UAE has told America no war with Iran, only bother Iran. UAE has contacted Iran..don't destroy me I do not want war.
Saudi had wanted America to start war with Iran, America was told is bad idea maybe by British. Israel just wants Iran paralyzed economically, but Everybody is afraid if Iran finds this unbearable they will start something or push west to start.
Saudi now are totally alone and some mercenaries and some countries like Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea that need money really terribly. Saudi is already approching the South Yemeni separatists and wants to ditch Hadi. Unfortunately the South Yemeni have said NO. They will not fight against Houthi for sake of Saudi.
Erdogan is so mad at Gulf Arabs, will not give hand until last minute. He can end Yemen wars in a week of negotiations.
He will want Egypt to get smashed a little bit in Yemen, to learn that money has limits. No dignity. A lot of countries would like Egypt thought a lesson for Mursi.
UAE Saudi fracas is sure thing. Read this article. Farmajo go to Ankara get instructions fresh instructions. Follow them to the letter.
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21 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:Somalis should be careful, and trust noone
Extremely careful.
What was sold as regional economic integration..so many nice sounding words is a project for confederating Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia. Its UAE project fully supported by America. Extremely dangerous to give ports to Ethiopia without any sweat.
Djibouti does not want any part of this project whose only reason is to make all ports directly or indirectly under Ethiopia and kill Djibouti.
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On 7/14/2019 at 10:28 PM, Che -Guevara said:That is for sure.
The Deputy PM said it clearly. There is a hand behind Gen. Asaminow.
TPLF said it the same. There is a hand behind it.
Everybody in Ethiopia agrees there is someone behind it. The only difference is everyone says its someone other than them. Unfortunately for the government and opposition, TPLF is the least suspect in this, if at all.
Most Amxara are accusing PM Abiy Oromo. Most Oromos are accusing Amxara chauvinists nationalist extremist..etc
Afwerki would have loved nothing less than Gen. Asaminow succeeding and pressuring TPLF with war. Afwerki also would want counterbalance to Oromo and who better to have than Amxara who are against Tigray. Afwerki is first suspect of most
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update:
Amxara Kilil has chosen replacements for theleaders that died.
1. President will be PM Abiy advvisor, just like the late President was also PM Abiy advisor bad optics and meaning
2. The party V/P and Government president has been split for first time
Rumour is that the party V/P was not PM Abiy choice and the President of the KIlil is not Amxara party choice. There is also deep regional/clan rift and this is temporary solution.
PM Abiy has now completed changing Kilil government heads as he said except Benishangul and Tigray. He was very childish to say that.
He said starting from Somali, except Benishangul and Tigray, we have changed all kilil governments at least Kilil presidents. Meles used to do that, but never would he even mention let alone bragg about it.
For the Somali its humiliating. Even when Abiy threatened the Sidama, he said in parliament, I will do what I did in Somali Kilil, if you don't listen and obey my plans and timing.
He changed everywhere, but only the Somali president is willing to talk openly supporting PM Abiy and Co. All others are holding on to Federalism and not saying anything bad about their past Kilil leaders. There is change of President in Afar, but not change of nuance and not even small criticism on their past leaders.
PM Abiy party is now the weakest in Oromia, his home state. His party is now shifting to issues of the opposition and becoming more Oromo nationalist which immediately breaks their alliance with Amxara who is also becoming more Amxara nationalist.
The situation is really bad. There is no imposing leader. Too much outside reliance from UAE to America to Regional neighbors.
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On 7/13/2019 at 2:05 PM, Apophis said:I have highlighted the blatant lies.
Name any Somali enclave that has more parts of clans and sub-clans of Somalis more than Kililka?
Lets use: NFD, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, Kililka...based on current governance.
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18 minutes ago, Amigos said:If it is normal, why do you think those who seek to revise documented history hide the fact that he was begging the British and signing letters as their most humble servant?
Or calling the British his masters?
You are being obtuse.
If you see letters from King Menelik of Ethiopia, are the same. I am sure some documents this date in Britain or Canada are written with the same words. So many powerful men do bend their knee for the Queen, others bow...
You have to see the man in three very different conditions:
Rebel
Prisoner
Semi- Prisoner, but back home
All he said is he will get out of politics and live like ordinary colonized Somali.
In my view he gave up on his struggle since his people had practically surrendered. On his capture his people should have rebelled. For some reason they gave up and that is the end of his leadership.
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This is something one can see coming from far away.
It was inevitable. If she used to her advantage being Somali, Muslim, African, Black, Democrat...etc in America then any of these reasons can also be used against her. It was only a matter of time.
galbeedi,
Your list is good, but cart before horse. Have a constitution first even if not worth the paper..some regions will implement it and that is good.
Money printed without constitution is recipe for disaster. How are you going to stop some regions from printing money, their own and setting exchange rates. You have no means.
Framework is important and critical. Without it its strong individuals, weak individuals..same circle.
The problem is that Mugadishu is not interested in constitution that limits it, and distributes jobs.
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On 7/9/2019 at 5:18 AM, maakhiri1 said:5 star reunion is inevitable
Not sure if even be remembered. Every generation that comes is less concerned. Now is second generation without doing anything about 5 star. Actually doing against 5 star.
I think this better be left for next century, like when world superpowers change or major world war and some chaotic situation or really big change.
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1 hour ago, Amigos said:Are we fabricating history this unashamedly?
Before you continue with your revisionism of history and presentation of this man as some kind of super-nationalist, read with me the letter he wrote to the British colonial officers, and tell us, if you will, if these were the words of the hardcore nationalist you are trying to paint:
Note the use of words by the Sultan of Warsangali:
He swore to Allah that he wants to be an "obedient servant" three times.
You lot must understand, the Kacaan is dead, you can not make up history any more.
Another lie, it was a concubine girl of 16 years of age that the old man took! Read the original sources.
To me everything he said is normal.
He misses his country and above all family.He is jailed in far land/island that has nothing in common with him.
Language also changes with Politics. That was normal language in those days and the same in Common Wealth countries.
The British senate is called House of Lords, yet one is not supposed to Have lord human.
In Turkish society AttaTurk banned so many religios traditions and was taken as hero.
Put things in perspective and give them reasonable weight. Don't fight the dead from the present.
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The biggest problem is normal development interrupted.
Now it cannot go back to the state it was before the rude interruption..impossible
Now cannot contnue straight fom where the Interruptor left...impossible
Now cannot scrap evrything and get on with new arrangement...so far proved impossible.
BTW its everywhere around the world. Let alone Somalia that was colonized by completely alien system, even Britain that ruled 1/4 of world population and 1/5 of world lands and seas is splitting up to its Ethnic roots.
Somalis were at different stages of development in the 19th century. From ordinary village rule to Sultanates and kingdoms. All this difference was squished into one system. When a foreigner squishes societies goes to lowest. When local power squishes goes to highest.
Ethiopia which says not colonized (fake) is also going through the same. Except has support of every world power and still cannot move forward.
One of the solutions in Somalia could be to let go Somaliland and eliminate at least 1/3 of issues.
If the American and Arab project of confederating Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea happens then Somalia will be even in worst place. Even Eritreans will line up ahead or equal to Somalis.
Another 50 years in the 19th century would have made the Somali similar to the Irans, Mexico..etc. Either Puntland or Somaliland would have imposed themselves until Kenya and Dirdaba.
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22 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:This just showed why the Amxara are in big trouble. Raising a manifesto of 1975 which was changed in 1979 is meaningless. Why did they work with TPLF for 40 years. They forgot that and even the Amxara public felt more humiliated that ADP is now focused on 40 and 30 year ago cases, instead of today's arrests.
Its like ONLF accusing WSLF why they argued against Late Barre about the name, conduct of the 1977 war. Most Somalis think that is the point where the war was lost, before it started.
Another point is ADP did not make clear in blaming TPLF for Federalism, Constitution..etc which is actually the only issue most in Ethiopia would appreciate TPLF support. Not easy for Xabeshi group in those days to side with discriminated and opressed Southern nationalities.
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23 hours ago, FBISOMALIA said:Those Jeegan should give workers their money and stop looting.
Look at it this way.
These workers seem to have Jobs and all the safety features from what can be seen.
On top of that they also have the confidence to do alla yellow vest.
That is big progress.
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Hopefully people will wake up and do something and her be remembered for it as the incident that made people take measures to prevent other cases like it.
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21 hours ago, Apophis said:I don’t know if he grew up in Kenya but he has certainly spent a significant amount of time there.
I know he was working from Nairobi and I think his experiences there have greatly shaped his centralist attitude.
Does he wish to see Ethiopia become like Kenya? I think so, I also think he sees himself as a pragmatist like Aden Bare Duale.
Perhaps becoming a right hand man to a strong ruler.
Of course this is all an error, in my opinion, as Ethiopia is quite different, in every sense, to Kenya.
Although I do believe the whole of East Africa can learn a great deal from Kenya, in this case I think Cagjar is mistaken if he thinks he can copy paste the Kenyan model to Ethiopia.
The best thing for Ethiopia is disintegration, peacefully.
Such a thing will rejuvenate the horn.
The problem of East African politicians is that they forget that the Somali nomad is very different to other nomads. The Somali nomad has always had some kind of laws and organization. Has reached level of Sultanates, Kingdoms and even empires.
Other nomads went straight to European system from very very primitive life. They did not have much habits good or bad. The Somali had a lot of habits good or bad and some of them conflicted with European systems.
100 years at war produces its own culture.
This is what politicians or apprentice like @Abtigis miss. Kililka is even different from any other Somali enclave. It has every clan or sub-clan of Somali that ever walked on earth. Only American Somali, Candian Somali...clans are missing which are on their way. Kililka has already British Somali.
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51 minutes ago, galbeedi said:OO,
why not make the EPRDF CC larger by adding Somalis, Afar and others?. THis old system is no longer working for many.
Good idea, but there was a big problem.
Tigray wanted your idea, but all opposed it because it was almost guaranteed the Afar and Somali will side with Tigray on most issues. Now the Oromo still do not want this. They have not consolidated in Oromia let alone in other areas.
They prefer others to join as individuals since the Oromo party has 3 million members. African style.
Individually would be worst for Somali, since the unity is not as strong as others. Only Oromo is less united than Somali.
If its individual membership in Ethiopian parties, it may bring death of autonomy. There is no peer pressure. Ethiopians will buy or pressure half of MPs from Kililka.
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13 minutes ago, galbeedi said:If Illey had moderated his abuse, the people would have followed him. You can't lead your own prisoners and victims to fight for your survival. They can't trust you. So, this new Guy Mustafe must unite the Somalis for any eventuality.
Illey was going to leave, but nobody wanted him to leave orderly. Nobody, mainly Oromo and Amxara wanted Illey to leave the structure intact or even better.
The only accusation that keeps repeating in Ethiopia is: Illey was separatist and we saved the country from fracturing.
That is what Abiy stated in parliament.
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20 minutes ago, galbeedi said:I bet that those in Jigjiga probably do not even have plan B. This Cagjar guy must prepare the people for the eventual collapse of the new Yugoslavia of Africa.
I hope his actions are not as his talk. What he talks is scary. Some of his talk makes you question that he forgot he is Somali and in Ethiopia.
galbeedi,
Its international or global phenomenon now to be nationalist. Maybe there will be major war who knows.
From what I heard, Cagjar will be removed if the Ethiopian situation gets worst. He does not have the personality or experience to lead almost 7 million people to safety.
He is also not cognizant what it means to the Somali if there is change of power in Oromia itself. Abiy is no more the favorite anywhere in Ethiopia. That maybe a plus.
Plan B is the most important question. If others know that you have no plan B, then you become victim of circumstances.
Your Amxara friends rely too much on foreigners. On the other hand its because of foreigners they won in 19th century.
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3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:This reminds of the end of the Soviet where Gorbachev and communist party were undermined by the new elected regional parliaments. The Baltic States were first to undermine him and he was eventually challenged openly by the president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin. The Soviet ceased to exist that day!
The infighting is a not good news. Sidama and Wolkait could be his Baltic States and Tigray is his Russian Federation followed by Afars and Somalis.
Looks like it.
Abiy speech in parliament last week was humiliating to Somali. What he said threatening to Sidama was:If you don'y obey, I will do to you South what I did in Somali kilil.
Crisis group told him, that he cannot do in South what he did in Somali Kilil. The Sidama are united from 3 political parties to the farmer. The Somali were divided and many wanted vengeance on Illey first.
But Generally the Soviet and even Yugoslavia have a lot of similarity to Ethiopia.
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7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:TPLF is still shaker in Ethiopia.
It has now come out in the open that EPRDF is finished.
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President Issayas Afewerki may have had a hand in encouraging Amhara militancy in Ethiopia
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The Americans, UAE and Eritrea are behind him. A simple American official's comment means a lot more than 10 Million people in Ethiopia.
He was played in Djibouti for lack of experience and of course the sanctions on Eritrea, which he had no say, but to sing Kumbaya on UAE billion and Yamamoto (Somalia watch out).
He seems to be partly reconciling with Tigray or trying to. He has not enthusiastic support in Oromo and the Amxara are not reliable. Too angry to work with discipline.