Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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Here we go another long term headache being brought to Somalia for some short term problem. Allowing Ethiopians to deal with district level issues in a neighboring country. Once you invite Ethiopians down to minute issues, you allow or invite them to interfere at will even when time comes you do not want them to do so.
This is also unmitigated disaster for Ethiopia, being done for temporary relief to PM Abiy. What ever happens in Jubaland will happen in Kililka. The litle support PM Abiy has among Somalis in Kililka will be even more shaky after this news makes its way to Jigjiga and Addis.
Bad idea, bad steps all the way. Ethiopia and Kenya may go about it diffeently, but have no different security interests
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3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Observer,
During the last EPRDF meeting, rhe TPLF head didn't show up for the meeting, what gives?
Was Debretsion Gebremichael afraid of entrapment?
It could be that TPLF wants to give prominence to the rising star Getatchew Reda, since TPLF agenda and decisions became EPRDF decisions.
1. Election should be held on time. This has angered PM Abiy himself and his close friends in G7 and Eritrea.
2. Amxara party wanted meetings with TPLF to solve problems, but TPLF refused and stated that any meetings should be public and agreements and disagreements public.
3. ODP is weak in Oromia and ADP is very weak in Amxara, but TPLF is strong in its home base. The opposition everyone of them in Oromia and Amxara agreed with TPLF that election should be held on time. This has already created panic in the parties that thought election should be forgotten.
Election should be held under this constitution. Others including Abiy wanted to change constitution before election. They failed.
Agjar was on the fence leaning to postponment. He was wrong by Somali interest.
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Cagjar is too focused on himself and his future in Ethiopian politics.
He should focus on the Afar, Oromo and South which have direct impact on the Somali and interaction with the Somali people good or bad.
The Amxara are too far away geographically, too different from the Somali in interest, culture, language..etc. The closer he gets with the Amxara who are anti-federalists he divides the Somali and weakens.
Generally is good idea to have peace and friendship with everyone possible, but the Somali is not an insider in Ethiopia. No matter the size of the population or location, the Somali is not best positioned to mix it up between Amxara and Oromo.
Agjar is also acting against Illey and Illey shadow, but in doing so weakening and destroying things that Illey did that were good for the Somali.
As galbeedi mentioned even the broadcast is now getting diluted with programming that has nothing to do and no benefit to the Somali.
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On 8/3/2019 at 3:27 AM, cubano said:Somalia lost 1977 because cuban troops helpd Ethiopia. Most somalis accept this opinion.
If that makes your day.
The war was lost since it became an invasion of Ethiopia instead of a liberation of the Somali people from Ethiopia. Too big of ego and too much belief in power of guns played in the head of late Barre.
It would not have mattered. Even if the Cubans or Russians or Germans did not come, as long as its an invasion would have been reversed a decade later or be another Cashmere.
The organization, the name, the open Somali Republic soldiers...was all wrong.
This is not a reason/excuse after the failure. Late Barre was told clearly before the start.
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One of the gravest acts of Farmaajo with Ethiopia is actually what happened in SWS. Arresting a leading candidate, using Ethiopians, remove him from competition. The payback for this will come in another form and then most of you will be accusing some group of allying with Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somaliland, UAE or Qatar..etc.
Madoobe was a personality long before Jubaland and Kenya interference. How did he become successful and How did he get to be allied with Kenya? Was he not accused of UAE? Was he not accused of Ethiopia?
All this comes, because its easy to speak about Kenya, Ethiopia, UAE or others.
Its very uncomfortable to talk about the real underlying issues and trying to solve them once and for all.
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Ex Camel trader across Libya, Sudan, Chad, Former Janjweed commander, now RSF commander is deputy of Military council.
Minawi the Darfur rebel leader and Hammeti the RSF commander now have common lobbyist with Haftar in Libya and both Sudanese are now supporting Haftar in Libya with soldiers.
Who got them together...Dickens and Madson...Lobying firm.
Hameti and Minawi met in Chad. Minawi who never made peace with Al Bashir is now making peace with Janjeweed commander.
Cruel world for the nomads across Darfur, Chad, Libya...
Sudan's military sidesteps protesters with lobbying and rallies
WWW.MIDDLEEASTEYE.NET
With $6m deal, Sudan military turns to foreign powers and a British-era tribal system to recognise its authority -
This is indication for the level the situation has reached.
For a businessman to risk this openly and as MMA indicated for this long, shows the frustration among Somali.
But on the other hand, that is the trend now a days even in the west. Long live the tribe.
We tend to forget that the Somali is a very big people and cannot be cohesive. Interests differ based on geographic location, which again is very big as well, natural resources which is also varied from agriculture, nomad economy to oil to ports.
Many Somalis see the people as small community that can stay together around some impractical ideas. Its big population, big land/s, many countries...
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This article reads like science fiction. It shows clearly how corrupted the world is. The sad part is its all real.
Iranian born, Israeli intelligence person, Canadian lobbying firm founder, represented Haftar and another year a secret group in Tripoli and the year after Gaddafi clan...all in a days work each paying from 2 to 6 million at a time.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/haftar-hemeti-and-lobbyists-libya-connection
The same story continues unabated after overthrow of Al Bashir and transporting 1000 RSF to Haftar through Eritrea. Commander of RSF is deputy of Military council in Current Sudan government. Again another seeming fiction, but real. Telephne conversation between Haftar and Trump..etc can be had as anti-terrorist front. Sad but funny.
https://www.aljazeera.net/news/politics/2019/7/24/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%AA%D9%8A
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The new Amxara president is already at work how to reconcile with Tigray. He cannot have peace in his Kilil without making peace with Agew, which the Amxara accuse are Tigray 2. The Agew are almost half of Amxara kilil population. The statistics are wrong because Agew were taken out of the list in last 2 census.
Most of Amxara kilil is governed with warlords right now.
The Amxara influence on Oromia is almost half, but Amxara influence on Tigray is next to zero.
Tigray influence on Amhara is more than half and Tigray influence in Oromia is still big, since the opposition are more influencial in Oromia than Abiy and the opposition are closer to Tigray on federalsim than to Amxara.
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I am afraid to pour a cold water on your idea and wish, but that is what it needs.
Reconciliation always needs a strong common state or reconciliator.
If you do not have a central/federal government that governs/rules for all Somalis, no hope for having fruitful reconciliation.
Never happened in the world either. You need a state, constitution/framework for reconciliation.
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5 minutes ago, Dahireeto said:@Abtigiisis finished. Dead to us and all Somalis. He wants to bring back Amhara noecolonianist at the expense of his own people so that he can stay in power in Somali kilil and be given more prominent role in Ethiopian politics.
He is a loser.
agree. He is going about it the wrong way. He will soon lose Dirdahaba completely and then problem or miscommunication with Djibouti.
He should speak up and stand up in Diedaba. Dirdaba is dry run for the Oromo in Addis Ababa.
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It would be preferred that she focus on Africa and more on Horn. She can get allies from both parties very easily. Everyone in congress has pet project.
As for standing up for herself, I think she has enough legal advisers and not much to worry. They must have gone with fine comb all her life as son as she was candidate for congress.
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On 7/23/2019 at 8:19 PM, Apophis said:Where is Cagjar’s towel boy to explain the abhorrent supplication by cagjar to Amharas in Bahir dar.
It was the stuff of nightmares watching this disgusting so called “somali president”, kowtow to ahmara neo colonists.
There’s one born every minute.
He is trying to raise his profile and following in Ethiopia. What he misses is that his profile among Somalis determines even his rise more than the Amxara ever will.
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On 7/23/2019 at 10:39 PM, Che -Guevara said:I don't understand his thinking!
He does not have solid base in Kililka. He is trying to be big in Ethiopia outside kililka, which does not work with Somali thinking.Amxara will never influence the thinking of Somalis in the street.
Oromo and Afar can by neighborliness and Tigray can by having long relationship. Its 50 years with some parties.
Even ONLF prefers to discuss or fight with Tigray rather than those who do not and cannot state what they want.
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On 7/24/2019 at 4:24 AM, Tillamook said:Even though it all seems cloak and dagger down there behind the scenes and there doesn't seem to be any direction, I believe Abtigis ultimate objective is to buy Somalis time by playing these competing forces in Ethiopia against one another.
Che, however unlikely it may seem, but SomaliGalbeed, for better or worse, is emerging as the de facto king-makers of Ethiopia. And we should take full advantage of such an eventuality.
Oromada hala taageero; Amxaarada carabka ha loo laadlaadsho; Tigraygana hoos ha loogu iljabiyo— and in the meantime, our resident Tigray bot Old Observer, iimaanka ha laga soo rido.
Typical wishful thinking.
How could one be a king maker in a place that is part time home?
Abtigis and Shide are the two sides. Shide is closer to Oromo, yet still not cut off from Tigray, since there is a big part of the Oromo who wants to make some peace with Tigray, especially with situation in South.
Amxara can say anything now, but will never ever will accept kililka independence and they hate the small autonomy it has now or it had during Illey which has been already reduced.
For Somali to be a king maker has to have strategic partner. Amxara will never be strategic partner. Their interest is unitary system, the somali interest is distributed devolution system. Its just the nature of things. Somali has home base, Amxara are everywhere in Ethiopia. A century old difference of interest.
I like your statement of king maker, when Abtigis is not king in his own home. Shide and Co. have more wight in Ethiopia on the ground. Abtigis has more weight with the face book and Media focused Amxara. The closer to Amxara the further he goes from others like Afar, South..Tigray maybe not since they know a lot more about Kililka than any of the others in Ethiopia.
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This is hard to believe:
Here is what the journalists were able to find out for now:
The Administrator/mayor is Somali, the Deputy is Oromo.
The Administrator is on official work visit in France
The Deputy called for meeting and did evaluation of Administrator (not mentioned, but was decided to bring down the adminisrator.
Asked if the deputy has now taken responsibilities of the Aministrator..no answer
Is the Deputy working from the Administrator office, why did this happen...no answer
So many childish, but very dangerous things being done in PM Abiy time. His popularity has really gone down everywhere and respect has been lost. Trust is now at lowest. These are critical.
Since Dirdaba is federal city PM Abiy should have fired the deputy, make a clear statement and admonish publicly the coup attempt using QERO. Otherwise PM Abiy is inviting chaos everywhere.
The Somali maybe slaow starter, but is hard to stop. Never forget that.
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Then Caare is done.
Every Somali I spoke to even those far away in NFD or Kililka are fed up with this issue. He is also not good for the federal government. He is not good for Puntland and he is not good for Somalialnd. These are the 3 main players.
End this issue one way or another, is becoming every Somali that has heard about it.
If I were him, this is the only window to talk and go home to Hargiesa or Mugadishu with little left.
Next week or next month will be too late.
Body count after some time, loses its meaning.
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15 hours ago, galbeedi said:OO,
The constitution file is static. I do not know why.
Most Somalis will not accept the current one written in a haste. It is the job of the president to appoint prominent Somalis across the region and then start the consultation. I do not know why everyone is scared to start the process.
You do not need an army or even to work in Mogadishu. They could go a quiet place like Garoowe and deliberate as long as it takes. At the end , you do not need the opinion of the regions but the federal parliament and referendum among Somalis.
Vote yes and no. 51% margin should be enough.
You have defined what is needed to be done. The main problem is there is no leader to tell people even what they do not want to hear.
Example: What is Farmaajo stance on federalism. If a leader cannot chose a clear unambigeous stance on this issue, he is simply sitting on the chair, travel by airplane, sit behind some big leaders..etc.
A leader can be wishy washy on some smaller issues, but if a leader wants to do big fundamental issues by tricking, arresting, bribing..etc he is sowing discord among people that cannot be fixed in less than one generation.
People generally like leaders who are clear. You either follow them full heart or you bring them down full heart. No enmity. Some anti federalists were happy by what happened in SWS, but the people will never forget the humiliation done by using Ethiopians.
Everyone is afraid of the constitution, because they are all weak and they think if the constitution is done right now it will benefit only the other side. Every Somali knows if constitution is done right now, Puntland will be most influential. All provinces will side with Puntland to get some small power sharing for themselves.
Mugadishu cannot accept this. That is the bottom line and the hold up.
Yet the more time is wasted the more federalist Somalia becomes by necessity. If there is no effective central governent, regions, provinces are forced to organize locally. That is federalism.
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4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:He went to Eritrea instead of dealing with the issue. The guy is done for.
Both Farmaajo and Abiy are following Afwerki way. Be tough arrest or kill if you have to. No Federalism.
They forget that Afwerki is dictator, no opposiion, more than 300 prisons..etc
PM Abiy trying to say if there is violence, I was not there. Very weak.
Sinically one can say Abiy is trying to co-ordinate with Afwerki to pressure Tigray. This will definitely undo Ethiopia. The Oromo separatists field day. They get what they want and they are ready.
I am afraid Kililka is at its weakest. The President may have education, but is no substitute for leadership and gutsy decisions.
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5 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:
Ethiopian city braces for protests as activists promise to declare new region - Reuters
WWW.REUTERS.COM
Activists in Ethiopia were set to declare a new region for their Sidama ethnic group on Thursday in defiance of the central government, with...PM Abiy has put himself in a corner.
If he compromises he gains more support in Oromia, If he doesn't he gains some in Amxara.
What is behind this issue will affect Somalis in a major way, Dirdhaba.
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1 hour ago, galbeedi said:yet, I still believe that Somalia should never trust the American unless they lift the arms embargo and leave us alone to print our own money.
galbeedi,
Let alone Somalia, even America cannot print its own money. The Federal reserve does and loans to America.
Somalia will need to give share to one of the bankers and also to pint the money.
But first have constitution that is agreed and ratified. Otherwise Garowe can now invite a banker and set up a bank that can print money.
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1 hour ago, galbeedi said:OO, if the going get tough, the snow flakes of the left will be crushed by the armed right wing.Too bad , the stupid medis was chasing the innocent Muslims while the right wing nuts were agitating and arming. for the last two years, 90% of mass killings and shootings are done by the right wing nuts.
Anyway, I have a theory that I have developed for the last few years. Every time Trump does something outrageous or headline grabbing statement, he is probably preempting a damaging story about him.
There were a video in the media that supposed to air Monday about his close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein the guy accused of molesting under age children. He is angry and has to unleash some crazy twitter in order to get some help.
here is the video.
In that regard Trump is OK.
He quit the guy as soon as Trump saw and heard something wrong
He cut off the guy as well. Some are even praising Trump for not being friends with Epstein.
But your theory is correct. Not Epstein, but something else.
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Last Year most Somalis were condemning Illey and none of what he was condemned for is important in Ethiopia. Illey is accused in Ethiopia of preparing Kililka for separation. That is the only case and some false accusation about incidents like church burning which every Ethiopian can witness that it was not Illey that did it.
The Steps taken in Kililka by PM Abiy within one week were:
1. Remove 7 Somalis from Dirdhaba 4 of them memebers of CC of Somali party assigned with authority of party and government power
2. Remove Chief of Security of the city who had not only competence, but most importantly able to work with all Ethnics in the city
3. Now have replaced the rest with Abtigis face book buddies acceptable to Jawar and Abiy.
4. The Brodcasting Agency chief and program folks were removed
5. Education authorities were replaced
6. Liyu was kept in Limbo and some commanders replaced and its cohesiveness negatively affected
These 4 years ut was a Somali that should be governor of Dirdhaba. He travelled to USA and when he returned his office was taken over already with QERO. They have no time to wait. Dirdhaba was one of the reasons Illey was removed. He had always assigned very strong Somalis.
Dirdahaba
Autonomy
Oil
Trade line with Djibouti
Were among main targets for current Ethiopian government. All was blamed on Tigray alliance as well. The close alliance is true, but the close alliance also brought a lot of autonomy for the Somali. Since Somali is not an insider in Ethiopia, he can only be an ally and choose what is better as a Somali.
Very sad situation in Dirdhaba. Almost lost within a year.
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What is going ON?
Before yesterday Turkey says will not observe unilateral US sanctions on Iran
Yesterday China says will not stop buying Iran oil
Yesterday Congress passed resolution telling Trump to go back to Nuclear deal
Yesterday Pompeo says we will negotiate with Iran
Yesterday Iran FM says US has to return to agreement to negotiate
Trump looking for way out now to negotiate with Iran. Very funny.
Trump afraid that a drone operator or some corrupted commander can start war.
I love Persians. These are people with dignity and also developed country. The Turkish are really great. Stood up and now won.
Both Iran and Russia will do favor to Turkish in Syria.
Mustafe Cagjar, Suldaan Duulane in the Amhara State
in Politics
Posted
Its a bad day when you see Somalis competing to demonstrate who is more Ethiopian. What Cagjar is doing is just that. So far the good thing is after 10 solid years of cultural, educatinal, media, development plans, security..autonomy the Somali will not lose it for the benefit of the Cagjar and Co.