Old_Observer
-
Content Count
3,669 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
30
Posts posted by Old_Observer
-
-
Is Ethiopia falling apart?
There is one obscure issue that the diasporas are not talking about, but will soon do. That is re-settling, returning or settling the displaced mainly Somalis and Oromos.
500 million of Ethiopian money has been allocated for this task.
The 600,000 displaced Oromo is fake number. It was used to campaign and generate hate or suspicion against the Somali by Oromo diaspora and some Oromo government officials. The number 6 is bad omen when used in such cases.
The Somali were simply helping the displaced and not making propaganda using the displaced or throwing numbers.
The Ethiopian federal government needs to be careful on this. The Somalis that have simply gone and stay with relatives and settled in some Somali villages should be counted and helped and where applicable compensated.
The diaspora Amhara are saying, oh we should not have expected much from those falks? Already have moved on to other issues.
The Oromo diaspora are saying, well we showed what we can do, but where did we go wrong? What happened that we are being looked at with suspicion by everyone else now?
Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya and Sudan and South Sudan all stayed as far away as possible from the issues in Ethiopia. This was very dangerous for 3 countries and they all saw the danger. Eritrea, South Sudan and Somalia in that order.
What do SOLers think happened or happening?
-
galbeedi,
You would have made a perfect talking head and turned a lot of heads around.
-
2 minutes ago, Holac said:I haven't seen helicopters during Farmaajo's Puntland visit. Who owns them? Why are the copters there?
They are Liyu helicopters. IT IS A JOKE.
The soldiers look really great though, very modern and latest versions like other countries, even much better than those of Kenya.
-
2 minutes ago, Holac said:OO, is it true that Ethiopian government is exaggerating GERD Dam's output power?
A number of experts believe the dam is not going to produce as much power as is claimed, and that the dam should be smaller in size for efficiency and cost. Asfaw Beyene, a Professor of Mechanical Engineering at San Diego State University (California) says the dam is 300% over-sized. “More than half of the turbines will be rarely used,” he says. “GERD’s available power output, based on the average of river flow throughout the year and the dam height, is about 2,000 megawatts, not 6,000. There is little doubt that the system has been designed for a peak flow rate that only happens during the 2-3 months of the rainy season. Targeting near peak or peak flow rate makes no economic sense.” Beyene notes that that the issue is so highly politicized that “it seems to suppress legitimate engineering inputs and environmental discussions.” He suggests that the concerned authorities should make the project transparent, and resize the hydroelectric power output by reducing the number of turbines.
https://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-fact-sheet-8213
The man is not writing/speaking as an engineer, but an opposition politician, just using the title engineer for fake credibility. He was not happy that after hundreds of years, it has to take the Tigray leadership to build it. I do not have the link now, but he is more of a politician than an engineer in this issue.
The best witness in this case is Sudan. Sudan is between Ethiopia and Egypt. Sudan analysis and or statements, I find more credible than anyone else. Sudan has not only hydrologic experts, but also interest.
-
17 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:The first phase will span some 6 200km and will link Pakistan (Gwadar and Karachi), Djibouti, Somalia and Kenya
Che,
There are already 2 cables one very old and one fairly new that are already there. Ethiopia uses these cables from a terminations in Djibouti. This cabes are encompassing all around Somalia.
-
8 hours ago, Holac said:Strong leader but not a dictator. Let us not play loose with the facts.
Thank you.
Looks like lately anyone that can stand up for his heritage, culture is called a dictator.
Mr. Trump is the greatest dictator, people miss this point. Since the most important feature of America is money, and he has most influential decisions on money he is dictator. Among nomads ownership and control of grass lands and water makes one powerful or not.
-
8 minutes ago, Holac said:Isn't it fair to say that bringing the Irob (Catholic Saho people) under Ethiopian "Christian" rule was the main thing driving Ethiopia-Eritrea war? Irob is one of the clans of Saho people. Sahos are 90% Muslim and are cushitic people who mainly live in Eritrea. Irob are the only Saho clan that is Christian and Ethiopia wanted to separate them from Eritrea.
The Irob are Tigray by ancestry, check from their own web site. They originate from village closest to Negash. They are Orthodox, Catholic and Moslems.
The Saho are rebelling in Eritrea too, but against injustice and not against independence of Eritrea.
Since people are intermingled everywhere religion has not been a separating issue in these areas. There are Moslems in every nationality and there are Christians in every nationality (of course different percentages) in northern Ethiopia and Eritrea. Remember first Moslems are deep inside the first Christians and both have same ancestry and language.
-
Some Egyptian parliament members have done everything they can to get this visit cancelled. Reason:
The Ethiopian prime minister will convince parliament that the dam will not harm them, there fore should not be given platform. That is how weak the argument of some Egyptians is against the dam.
"shortly after the visit was announced, MP Abdel Hamid Kamal and another 18 MPs submitted a memorandum to Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel Aal rejecting the visit, arguing that Addis Ababa will garner points from the visit in case it plans to go to international courts. "
https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/12/20/desalegn-visit-raises-controversy-ethiopias-intentions-gerd/
-
I have a question.
Why was it necessary to bring from Oman when Somalia has the most opportunity to tap anywhere from the international cable all around her from Kenya to Djibouti?
Is the international cable that from south Africa all around to Red Sea too expensive and the Oman outlet is cheaper?
Security wise its not hard to see why the International cable would not be more secure than the Oman one which I heard has satellite link at some point (weakest link).
-
Suldaanka, Holac,
We are all aware that colonial borders were not set by someone walking the places. The way they were set was from mountain or hill such and such, to river such and such..etc.
Generally speaking this would be less of a problem among Somalis, since two most significant factors that of Language and culture, Religion would not be an issue, but peoples daily life is regulated by clan, sub-clan, village, territory etc. That is where problems happen.
This is big problem between Eritrea and Sudan and between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Eritrea and Sudan share 3 peoples: Tigre (Tigray +Beniamer Beja), Hidareb(beja) and Rashayda(Arabs). Most of these border people are nomads. Never observed the borders until Eritrea became independent country.
The border between Ethiopia and Eritrea has Afar, Irob, Tigrinya and Kunama as shared peoples. The famous place of the border conflict was called Badme. The border in this area was done between Italy and Ethiopia by pointing from one hill to a place where two rivers meet. It so happened that with use of modern satellites the village was split. Most houses were on Ethiopian side including a church, but the cemetery falls on Eritrea side. Has not been resolved to date. Of course Ethiopia controls the area since they evicted and defeated Eritrea, but Eritrea has court decision on its side.
There is similar cases with the Irob where couple of villages are on Eritrea side while 95% of the Irob are in Ethiopia. Again this is also under Ethiopia since they took it by force.
The lasting solution to such problems is letting the 2-3 illages of Irob join those in Ethiopia.
-
Aren't you afraid that, these incidents are following the same pattern as happened with Eritrea and Afar-Tigray if we take Somaliland as Eritrea and Afar-Tigray as Puntland?
There has to be a different way of approaching this.
-
12 minutes ago, Tillamook said:^
Can you not see the ploy yet, Che?
What you refer to as abdication of responsibility on the part of the Tigray led federal government— to not protect Somali civilians from the Oromo massacres— is a deliberate act choreographed to turn these two communities against one another.
Our resident Obscurer-in-chief who goes by the pen name Old Observer should resist the temptation to obfuscate the truth about the situation on the ground.
You are giving me a lot of credit that giving me a position beyond me.
Che,
The Federal government can go in one of two ways:
1. The regional government calls for it
2. The federal cabinet determines by recorded and publicly announced meeting. Its based on report and or recomendation of the federal police.
-
57 minutes ago, Duufaan said:Erdogan and turkey have implemented a policy of win-win without interference. They are dealing Muslim and non-muslim countries same way. They already made history.
Absolutely.
When you see the Egyptians confused over Turkey getting a base in Sudan. The Russians and Iran including China on side and now for sure Pakistan is in the box will run to Ankara.
-
The man still has not made up his mind and stick to it. Federal or local. He should realize that these days you are nobody at the federal without the local. Which is 'natural"
-
1 hour ago, Suldaanka said:Irro had a choice to make: to heed the voice of reason and save Somaliland and its people from another bloody civil war by conceding/going to court or to reject the outcome, which could have enticed his supporters to challenge the outcome by any means necessary including civil disobedience and violence. Irro heeded the voice of reason and chose the former thereby keeping the hard won peace in Somaliland. In his concession speech Irro said “I took the tough decision of conceding for preserving the unity and peace of Somaliland, a decision that would not be popular among many of my supporters whose votes were stolen”. These words echo the sentiment of a leader who placed the interest of his people above personal or party interests. For this, the HOL editorial board has unanimously voted Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, Irro as the Hiiraan Online’s 2017 Person of the Year.
This must be the number 1 criterion to place a Somali politician as good or bad. Nothing can be done without physical peace. There should not be threat to life on everything. Every Somali can only achieve what he/she wants when physically alive.
HOL also deserves congraulation for using best criterion.
-
1
-
-
34 minutes ago, galbeedi said:It is typical OO to mix things to confuse people.
When SPLA was founded in 1983, and their soldiers and bases were in Ethiopia. At that time there were no Eritrean state. What you referring was when Eritrea had clashed with Sudan and cut diplomatic relations.
galbeedi,
I think you missed this:
"Eritrea took the Sudanese embassy in Asmara and gave it to SPLA (Garang). Eritrea was training SPLM. Eritrea trained and organized what is called Eastern Front and threatened the pipeline which goes close and parallel with Eritrea.
Actually Ethiopia balanced for Sudan against Uganda and Kenya. That is why Sudan had no accusation or blame on Ethiopia. If you are talking Derg and King Haileslassie you are correct."
-
41 minutes ago, galbeedi said:If Egypt goes ahead and stops this dam, it will be also helping Sudan.
galbeedi,
Are you telling us that the Sudanese do not know their interest or they are going against their interest?
Astonishing.
Sudan benefits from the dam as much as Ethiopia does. There is something you are forgetting I am sure. Sudanese agriculture. They have been trying to regulate the flow of this dangerous river for ever. Boom the Ethiopians come with a dam that will completely regulate the flow year round. This benefits even Egypt, but except few Egyptian officials are cowardly to tell their people that there is no loss of water beyond first filling of the dam and better yet you can forget the destructive floods during rainy season in Ethiopia.
Electricity of course Sudan benefits as much since its closer to Sudan than Ethiopia.
-
What makes Egyptians treacherous throughout history with many empires? Trying to use fake origin. If any people are prepared to change their roots, origins, history, religion at a drop of a hat, through time cannot be relied to stand through thick and thin on anything.
Do you realize a lot of populations around middle east trying to claim they descend from the Prophet (PUH)? Some of them are known to have no relation at all. These kind of people are not just happy and greatful that Islam has reached them and they are Moslems. They need to go all the way to being from Saudi Arabia and the tribe.
Only 17% of Egyptians are Arab. Yet Egypt calls itself the mother of the Arab world. When the Arab flag is down Egyptians are ready to become South Europeans of which they have about 3%. Who knows since the Jewish flag is now up Egyptians may claim to be the real Jewish of which they have 4% of them are from Jewsish tribes.
http://www.egyptindependent.com/dna-analysis-proves-egyptians-are-not-arabs/
-
15 hours ago, cadnaan1 said:Right now shebele River and jubba are dry and Ethiopia is building more dams to completely stop the follow of the water to somalia we should side with Egyptian for this reason.
IMHO that is the absolute wrong approach. If you oppose electrical generation, you are telling the Ethiopians that they are allowed only to enjoy the scenery of flowing river with empty stomach and backward zero economy. That will not fly anywhere and you loose since you don't even show basic human relations.
Your objective should be:
Let the Ethiopians have electric generating dams since what ever comes to the dam flows after the turbines minmum lose.
You can even be a share holder and invest in it. Good investment.
The Ethiopians should also not use the big rivers for irigation, but the small ones. That is a win win.
The Egyptians regret is they did not become share holders when invited. The Egyptians were too arrogant and thought the dam cannot be built by Ethiopians. Somalia should use different approach from beginning. Somalia has also many times more influence on Ethiopia than Egypt. The Ethiopians understand this. Ethiopians would be more concerned and worried about a Somali warlord in some region than Sissi of Egypt. Hard to believe I know, but that is how things work with current governemnt in Ethiopia. They would be more worried about Sudan than Egypt. Its natural.
A collection of guns or jets does nothing as time goes by. Don't forget Somalia had some latest collection in its day too. The Ethiopians have a staying power just like Mohamed Ali, can withstand more shocks than others.
They are also most religious people. It doesn't matter Moslems, Christians in each of their religions they are traditional (Christians dont take to Evangelicals or zionist christian fad of the day and Moslems never accepted Wahabi no matter if petrodollars was flowing). That is also a strength in peace in war in draught in wealth good times they praise bad times they beg and pray each according to their faiths. So far its the only country with such numbers of christians and Moslems that has found its balance. That is a big factor in war. It gives one patience, gracefully accept defeat and magnanimously take victory.
-
This is small potatoes, but good if tied to Arabs and Erirea, which by the way is in Arab league. An Abyssinian in the Arab league is funny, but if one is Egypt's friend there is no shame.
-
Che,
So far the only groups blaming the federal forces are Oromo and some ONLF.
One cannot hide any misdeeds by the federal forces this long and this wide. The Oromo police in some areas could have claimed they are federal.
Every Oromo police that the Oromo claimed was killed by Liyu so far, every single one was killed inside Somali region. That is a fact even the Oromo have not denied, but they say the Oromo police went to protect Oromos from Somali.
That is fake, for one simple reason. The Somali even the ones who lost family members and property are not for vengence or retaliation, their stand is that this has to stop. Secondly the Somali region has enough influence and power in controlling its region so that there would not be vigilante actions. There are Oromos who work in the Somali Regional government, that is the extent of the Somali practice in federal system.
What is happening is that the Oromo leaders hesitated. On the one hand they wanted to side with the demonstrators wanting to increase their status. On the other hand they know that if the federal system goes so goes Oromo. The Oromo would have the least chance of survival as a region. Look at the map.
Hesitation in matters of basic principle makes one untrustworthy by both sides. That is exactly what happened. Now the Oromo themselves have to roll back and take back every slogan raised. You will soon see the investigation becoming public, the Oromo officials apologizing and being self critical for their weakness in protecting people.
-
Egyptians stabbed the Syrians in the back as well, when Sadat and Mubarek became obedient to Israel for 2 billion dollars a year from America. That was the ultimate betrayal and after that Arab league became useless.
-
1
-
-
Why the opposition cannot unite?
The basic question is: What is the opposition opposing?
Opposition in Amhara for example:
Those who want the old like Derg fascism
Those who do not want Derg but go back to the way Kings were
Those who blieve that they should be at the Apex of power and regions should not have power
This automatically brings them in opposition to almost everyone including Amhara who are convinced that Ethiopia cannot survive as a country with the old system.
The Amhara inhabit mainly from centre to North. Those in the north are northerners, they have always been aligned with the Agew, Afar, Tigray. The Agew are in Amhara region, the Afar and Tigray have their own regions.
We are talking about majority here not individuals or a village here a town there that can have its own local problems.
The Agew, Afar, 3/4 Amhara zones and Tigray opposition demand is good government in their region and not the set up of Ethiopia. All of them are accepting and some of them were leaders when the system was setup.
How could all these groups unite? Its impossible. Some groups want to dismantle the system others will defend the system, but want to go further than EPRDF.
You cannot unite for unity sake:
Lets take ONLF and OLF. ONLF is solidly support for the federal and regions system. ONLF has no aim of ruling Ethiopia. On the other hand OLF is vacilating between Independence to ruling Ethiopia to Federal system. They splinter and weaken according to the times. When they think EPRDF is weak they start talking with Amhara opposition into ruling Ethiopia. They splinter because there are OLF who are convinced that centralized Ethiopia is impossible to survive.
There has to be common objective to unite.
-
I hope not.
The Oromo Qero just want chaos. They were expecting Illey will do the same or send Liyu and fight. None of that happened.
The Oromo Qero expected the federal to come to every Oromo town to fight the youth. Instead the federal told the Oromo government, if you are not capable to keep law and order in Oromia according the constitution we take over.
Things are changing fast. The investigation is going to be made public, that was the condition others all except the Oromo decided.
According to the BBC its the Oromo police that you are calling troops, not federal. The federal are quite disciplined. So is the Liyu. The Oromo is not as organized, as experienced and as disciplined. One sergeant can do a lot of damage.
Ethiopia PM to arrive in Egypt on Monday after one-month delay
in Politics
Posted
The dam is big will hold more than 70 billion meter cube, but this has nothing to do with how much water flows out of Ethiopia. The dam is big for the simple reason that all turbines need to work year round, since the flow of the river during rainy season and dry season has big difference.
What the Egyptians are really concerned, but hiding it, never wanted it discussed is the water speed will be slower, thus more evaporation in Sudan. As it is now without the dam 10 billion cubic meters a year evaporates.
Since its the Ethiopian nile that gives the whole nile flow speed, falling from 2km altitude, and the white nile moves very slow, the Sudanese have been proposing to Egyptians from 40 years back to build channel at least in some areas if not all the way and save the evaporation.
The Egyptians found it cheaper to paralyze Sudan and Ethiopia with civil wars and other means not to use the river, rather than build a tunnel cheaply to prevent evaporation and regulate the flooding which is big problem even for Egypt.
And since Every dog has his day, it does not look like the Egyptians can use the old ways. They cannot even go under British Empire protection anymore. Sudan and Ethiopia relative to Egypt are not what they used to be. Now Egypt is itself in termoil and has to face the music they played for centuries. The music does not sound good anymore for their ears.