Old_Observer

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Posts posted by Old_Observer


  1. 15 minutes ago, Holac said:

     

     

    The UAE is most likely interested in bullying Sudan for supporting the Turkish initiative. In essence, the UAE is already encouraging the overthrow of Bashir and the opposition in Sudan may try to take advantage of the UAE move. 

     

     

     

    Holac,

    I agree. For Egypt to attempt attacking the dam is unthinkable and also most militry analysts reason is not possible. Ethiopia had ready preventions from beginning. The Egyptians also know a fact that is not repeated or shown in Media. If Egypt attacks Ethiopia the Nile will be diverted in the mountains. Then the Egyptians have to physically and fight their way to destroy the diversion.

     

    The target is Sudan. Sudan and Turkey is the trigger with these petro dollar drunk arabs and the dollar starved Egyptians.

     

    Me thinks Ethiopia will destroy the Egyptian force in Eritrea.

    4000 Eritreans go to Ethiopia every month as per UN refugee agency and about 6000 Eritreans go to Sudan every month. Sudan and Ethiopia have evry information one can think off for free.

     

    Egyptians are blaming the Brotherhood for the news. They are saying fake news. Next news from Eritrea will be that Ethiopian army is in Sudan of which there is about 10,000 already in Darfur and Abiye.

     

    The Amhara diaspora had in their web sites last few weeks that Sudan Military was setting base and joint excercising in Ethiopia.

     

     


  2.  

    Sudan shut down border with Eritrea

    January 6, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - The Sudanese government on Saturday has closed its borders with Eritrea amid heightened security.

    On Thursday, Sudan deployed thousands of government militia Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters to the eastern state of Kassala on the border with Eritrea.

    In statements to the official news agency SUNA on Friday, Kassala State governor Adam Jama’a denied that Sudan has decided to close the border crossings with Eritrea.

    However, hours after his statements, Jama’a issued a decision to shut down the border crossings with the eastern neighbour, saying the move was based on the presidential emergency order.

    The decision provides for “the closure of all border crossings with the State of Eritrea as of the evening of 5 January 2018 and until further directives were issued”.

    Sudan Tribune has learnt on Saturday that a high-level security meeting was held in Kassala amidst heightened security.

    According to reliable sources, the Sudanese government has assembled a significant number of troops and SRF elements from the various units across the country and dispatched them to the eastern border.

    It is noteworthy that the Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir last week issued a decree imposing a six-month state of emergency in North Kordofan and Kassala states.

    The government said the decision was prompted by security reasons pertaining to the collection of illicit arms as well as combating illegal drugs and human trafficking.

    Sudan’s First Vice-President Bakri Hassan Salih last month paid a two-day visit to Asmara in which he discussed bilateral relations and issues of common concern.

    (ST)

    __________________________________________

    What ever economy Eritrea had is now finished, no need for Sudan to fire a single bullet. Half the Eritrean army will be in Sudan or Ethiopia at first sign of trouble.

     


  3. This is very dangerous development. The Egyptians have decided to tackle Sudan before Ethiopia. Eritrea will never allow Egypt to do anything against Ethiopia from its territory, but will allow Egypt against Sudan.

     

    What Eritrea will be blind sided is that Ethiopia for sure will attack Eritrea, for any move on Sudan. Sudan for Ethiopia is more important than any other country. Saudi and UAE money is making Egyptians do things detrimental to their interest.

    Sudan is also the Brotherhood and that will not bod well for Sissi. He might become Gaddafi.


  4. It can only be that way. Can't be any other way.

    The important thing is what they talked, and that is not for TV, that you can be sure.

     

    They could have talked of issues that will affect the region greatly.

     

    Don't forget Djibouti and Somaliland are in fierce competition for Ethiopian business and Djibouti is afraid Somaliland may have leapfrogged by making Ethiopia a share holder, not just a customer.

     

    Djibouti did not wake up one day and decided to build 3 ports in the Afar area of Djibouti simply to provide better service to Ethiopia. Competition was main and only motive.

     

     

    • Like 1

  5. The Liyu has been a force for good for the Somali not just Somali region. I am certain there are a lot of Somalis not happy of the power the Liyu has and its actions in some instances.

     

    All other Ethiopian regions and Somalis in other areas are envious positively. All the campaign by Oromo and Amhara diaspora and some Somalis could not succeed. The Liyu has even lead to improvement of the image of all Somalis. Its a Somali institution now, not an individual's private army as some opponents try to portray it.

     

    The funny thing is Ethiopian diaspora bring the Liyu into every trouble spot in Ethiopia. That should tell you that all these groups are afraid of something perceived or real. What they are afraid is that the Somali will be so strong equal to a country to himself in Ethiopia.

     

    I hope every Somali knows that the Somali region in Ethiopia is a microcosm of the total Somali. Its amazing one region having very single clan and in many cases sub-clans of the Somalis represented there.


  6. On 12/17/2017 at 11:23 PM, maakhiri1 said:

    ^true, they put that fail-safe in the constitution, for themselves.

     

    Me thinks the Somali was the one that wanted it the most. I am certain I have read or listened an interviw from an ONLF side on this one.

    WSLF had it in a conerence resolution that there should be a Guarantee of completely autonomous self government and recognition of self determination for Somali to stay in Ethiopia.

    • Like 1

  7. Fake news based riots lasted too long and got exposed. Now the counter attack comes which will set back Trump Netanyahoo for a decade to organize and train for next one.

     

    The armed part of the "democratic" Israel/US agencies did not get off the ground. 2 teams of what was supposed to be snippers like Ukraine and bomb throwers to create chaos were captured.

     

    This may be the end of remote controlled Colour "revolutions"

     

    "

    To address these concerns as to why former CIA Director Brennan was visiting the UAE, this report details, the SVR enlisted the investigative aid of MOSSAD—and whose findings revealed the presence of over 100 former CIA operatives at two locations in and around the UAE capitol of Abu Dhabi—one being a villa near the northeastern Zayed Port, and the second at a location known as “The Academy”, roughly a 30 minute drive from the city's downtown.

    Being confronted with this MOSSAD evidence by the SVR on Friday (22 December) as to why these CIA operatives were operating within their monarchy, this report notes, UAE intelligence officials stated that they all had been hired by them to create a “spy empire—and whose leader in doing so is an American citizen named Larry Sanchez—who is a former member of the CIA's clandestine services—with Sanchez, also, during the Obama-Clinton regime, being under the direct command of then CIA acting Director Michael Morell."


  8. It looks like the Oromo leaders realized they could lose everything. It seems these killings will stop. They thought a quick victory can be achieved by shocking people, but as time went by only their crimes and incompetence is coming out.

     

    If fake news does not succeed in a day, before its exposed as fake, once people stand and think it goes the opposite.

    The Somali was brave and calculated.

     

    The Somalis killed cannot be brought back, but one can achieve to save more Somali from being killed and better security and peace for future. By all accounts its working.

     

     

     

    • Like 1

  9. Interest of the Somali should not be based on some folks frustration that the Weyannie won't go away. No Somali interest should be based on "friendship" that has always been in practice reason of failure and chaos.

     

    The following points are important historical and current actions of Egypt that were detrimental to the Somali:

     

    1. The Egyptians promised a lot of support for Somalia in the 77 war. When the real need arose, you could not get the Egyptians to say Hi calling them with Megaphone. Was all silence.

    2. After the Arta conference and formation of first TFG, Egypt was first country the president of Somalia visited, the Egyptians did not even provide scholarship to students let alone to come on the ground and help with training, diplomatic support. All this for single reason. The president told them that he sides with them, but at the moment he could not fight Ethiopia. He needs to stand Somalia at least on one foot.

    3. Egypt did not support Somalis 10% of what Sudan did

    4. In their recent tour Egyptians promised Somaliland that Egypt will insist Somaliland's view and delegation be recognized for build up of future recognition. Somaliland knew better of the treacherous Egyptians.

     

    Even if one is so blinded by hate of Tigray/Ethiopia, one has to consider that Ethiopia will always be a neighbour to Somalis everywhere, so no choice of neighbour, but one can choose a far away friend.

     

    I did not even mention that Egypt is working at this time to overthrow Sudan, not from its land but through Eritrea. Sudan has already declared emergency status for the regions that will be involved.

    Egypt is the most expensive and most useless water boy for America. The only purpose for Egypt is Gaza. Too expensive to maintain a country of 80 million for just one purpose of making prison and also being prison guard for Palestinians in Gaza.


  10. galbeedi,

     

    Stopping or if possible eliminating any violence among any people let alone neighbors, brothers is always a human as well as best way to achieve victory (Tzan Tsu).

     

    As for Illey being the go to man for everything Somali, I would be happy if I were you. I would not want Ethiopia to deal with Mogadishu with out consulting and consent of the Somali region in Ethiopia. Everything Ethiopia does with Somaliland also needs to be not skipping Somali region. At the end of the day these are territories that are neighbors, brothers.

     

    I would not like it a bit if Ethiopia starts dealing with Somaliland that is detrimental or disadvantageous to Somali region. Same with Djibouti. Ethiopia and Djibouti have shared populations, there fore the shared population must be considered in as much activities as possible.

     

    With all his power and influence PM Netanyahoo always has a meeting with Ethiopian Israeli Jewish a day or two before his trip to Ethiopia. He also includes an Ethiopian/Israeli jewish among his delegation. USA has chinese and Japanese origin Americans officials at state department. Canada consults and invites her Somali community before making policy change or supporting or opposing a cetain action at UN or other mechanisms.

     

    Its so natural for any country and in this case Ethiopia to take advantage of 6-7 million population who is the same with population in many countries and territories. You do not think the Netherlands Dutch consider the Dutch population in Belguim (half popultion of belguim that is Dutch), when there are policies in Bruxelles that will affect them?

     

    The Somali case is even much greater than that. Its critically important for Mogadishu as well to consider Somali Region, Puntland interests and situations when dealing with Ethiopia. No matter how great of an idea or policy it will never materialize or succeed if not supported or at least accepted by Somali region.

     

    Don't set policy or principles based on individuals. Today you have Illey, tomorrow different person. No matter how difficult it looks now, if one follows principles it will outlast individuals.

     

    Its extremely rare for two societies to be friends or enemies based on individual leaders. Let alone now where people are aware of economic, political and social aspects, even middle ages where the issues of life were limited. Ethiopia was expected to be one of the powers for the crusades. It did not crusade. The memory of that is the Ethiopian Monastery in Jerusalem is called Dier Sultan. It had full protection for centuries. With all the changes happening everybody including the Ottomans, no body touched Dier Sultan or christian monks there. The common interest was peace and security with all.

     

    What do you prefer instead that Illey a Somali is ignored when Ethiopia is dealing with Somalis in other countries?

    How would you have reacted if you were in Illey's place and you and your region interest is ignored and Ethiopia is dealing with Somaliland?

     

     

     


  11. About time the SFG starts a different approach. Rewarding any Somali for order, government (be it town, city or region) and relative peace. Make places that have chaos compete for order and governance. You would see regions going for order in a Garowe minute. Some regions would not even have time to develop their own, they would simply copy Puntland even creating jobs for Puntland in training police, how to run functions of government, security including education and health from local government perspective.

     

    SFG Parliament sets open list or criterion for getting federal funds and how much with what measurables. Example in Ethiopia the criterion for federal funds to regions is a well written open public formulae. Some region may get 1 billion another region 10 billion, but the measureables and criterion are set by House of Federation.

    In US its program based and is a bit messy work by Senate all the time, bribing and negotioating with each senator.

    In Canada its a set formulae called Equalization formulae.

     

    Somalia needs this ASAP. Will be messy in begining, but if few example 20 MPs are selected to do this work can be done easily. Just one year give Puntland half the money and the next year regions will have marathon to be best for next year.

     

    The way its done now looks more encouraging those who have not achieved order and governance over city, town or region, to not put best effort, because the federal army will come the police ministers will pay more attention where its chaotic.

     

    • Like 1

  12. 11 hours ago, Deeq A. said:

     

    Since then, without relinquishing its concerns, Egypt has acquiesced in principle to Ethiopia’s right to build GERD.

    In March 2015 Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi and his counterparts from Ethiopia and Sudan signed a cooperation deal on the principles of sharing the Nile River water and the construction of the GERD. 

    However, negotiations held 11-12 November in Cairo between the three parties broke down over the studies, with Egypt’s water minister accusing Sudan and Ethiopia of trying to direct them in a way that would “render them useless”, reported Middle East news site Al-Monitor.

    Global Construction

     

     

    That is the key. Egypt was invited to be share holder by late PM Meles, but refused since Egypt was so confident that by stopping WB and IMF the Ethiopians cannot build such a dam by themselves. There is nothing more angering someone when called "you can't". Even the Somali nomad so far away from the Sudanese border contributed a goat or bought bond with that goat, the dam is almost done. Egypt will never attempt military adventure, its just worst time and not in the cards now.

    Israel and media they control will also not be on Egypt's side. Ethiopia is not Yemen and Egypt is client state of Saudi Arabia.


  13. MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The Iranian authorities announced that anti-government protests, which hit the country in recent days, have ended.

    Since December 28, Iran has faced its largest protests in nearly a decade. The demonstrations started in response to a surge in fuel and food prices and high rates of unemployment, inflation and air pollution. At least 20 people have reportedly been killed in the nationwide protests, and 450 people have been detained, according to media reports.

    The official figures said that about 15,000 people participated in the protests in such cities as Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Rasht. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Monday that the unrest had been provoked by the combination of existing domestic problems and outside influence.

    'Riot Has Failed'

    Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on Wednesday that the riot had failed and the protesters had not reached their goals.

    "I announce that the riot of 1396 [year according to Iranian calendar] has failed… The number of protesters was small and it did not exceed 15,000 people across Iran," Jafari said as quoted by the IRGC information portal.

    The official added that Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States had ordered the militants from Daesh to enter the Iranian territory in order to carry out subversive activities.


  14. 23 hours ago, galbeedi said:

     

    America has empowered Iran the day they invaded Iraq,. 

     

     

     

     

     

    The Roman epire also started unnecessary war in Iraq and was defeated by Farsi. It was first major battle where the roman empire was routed. Everyone in the area heard that roman soldiers were defeated and eveyone started attempting to fight them. From there was all downhill or uphill from any perspective. History repeating.

    The Roman empire vs. Farsi was started by fire wood forest where the roman empire started charging kind of tax on people on their own forest. The Farsi said will not pay and attacked the Roman empire tax/charge collectors.

    To a large extent the 2003 war on Iraq was oil/dollar/euro and the Shiia (Arabs but close to Farsi) took control and Al Sadr and company pushed US out of Bagdad.

     

     


  15. I think the Mullahs are getting smarter. Inserting slogans and emblems into the demonstrations:

     

    Forget Palestine use money here at home

    Pictures of Shah and restoration of King

     

    These are slogans that show its Israel and US driving the demonstrations. Since the government and Mullahs have agreed to the economic issues, some of the demonstrators are frustrated and raising issues that are more than the the dead or lost goat.

     

     


  16. 15 hours ago, Holac said:

    OO, there is nothing wrong with the Somalis having an alliance with one of the powerful groups in Ethiopia (TPLF) for the sake of safeguarding own survival, but you have to understand that, in Somali street, Illey doesn't have the legitimacy or the moral authority to make a decision on behalf of our people.  Illey is seen as a despot forced upon us by the Ethiopian powerbrokers for their own survival at the expense of vulnerable Somalis. If the Oromos and the Amharas gain power, it is the Somalis who will suffer the most.

     

     

    I agree of the concern, of not having a local dictator, but it also helps to look at issues from the opposite side:

    Example one of the top members from Derg Mengistu committee has written:

     

    "The Weyannie Tigray are allowing only the Og (his writing) and nobody else in Ethiopia, to have so much regional independence. All other regions are not allowed to have forces. What do we do if one day the Tigray and Somali are not happy and want to separate?" He has gathered from media statements given by ONLF and others given at different times. His name is Captain Dawit Weldegiorgis. He was governor of Eritrea, deputy foreign minister and Executive member of ESAP the Mengistu socialist party.

    The most important issue to consider at all times is the condition and interests of peoples. Somali and Tigray are not same ethnic, they do not speak same language, ancestrally I am not an anthropologist to say they have or not have kinship, but in recent history they both have suffered same oppression and wanted self government at all times. Both were also rebellious. Don't you think this creates more closeness than individuals from Tigray or Somali can create? Common conditions, common interests are always far stronger than anything else even blood kinship. Somali region has changed leaders, Tigray region has changed leaders, but the relationship has not changed. Same with Afar.

    The close relationship between Tigray and Somali is in fact more than leaders that come and go. ONLF leaders had same close relations with TPLF.

    Illey may have enhanced what was there, but did not create it. Late president Abdullahi Yusuf and late prime minister Meles may have enhanced it, but did not create it.

    Its easy to blame Illey for his opponents, but those same opponents were actually the closest to Tigray when the federal system was set up in Ethiopia.

     

    What is the way to make sure that the Somali region does not become victim of others hegemony in Ethiopia. The prevention is only and only one. Strong Somali region in education, health, economy and governance security and if  need be elite forces. There is no other guarantee. Friendships even brotherhood is not guarantee. Self reliance and self confidence is most important guarantee. In that regard Illey is not part of the problem, he is part of the solution.

     

    Why did late president Siad Barre and Mengistu agreed to disband WSLF the moment the two regimes met after the war. The reason is simple. WSLF most in the leadership had decided to stay in Ethiopia with strong and guaranteed self government, contacted Tigray, Afar and others and obtained complete agreement and support. That was the day Mengistu decided to compromise on anything with Somalia and both of them to dismantle WSLF and SSDF.

     

    Why did ONLF and OLF in 20 years never done any thing co-ordinated, except forming so many names and declarations from Eritrea, north america or europe? This is not Tigray or Afar. Its something else.

     

    Fighting or competing to control the door for a house should not destroy the house. One can criticize Illey, can oppose Illey, but not destroy the region. Build more and better than Illey, but not destroy what he has lead building. Its the only regional state in Ethiopia that built an international Airport from its own, because Ethiopia will have built it, but after 5 or 6 years, which would have been too late for investment and business.

     

    That is how I see it.


  17. Mr. Netanyahoo seems can't hide his glee and getting media blackout in Palestine, such a "coincidence" timing.

    The Mullah's left president Rouhani to deal with it, but he was shakey and maybe wanted to use the situation to do some reform, but forgot that this is war "demos" are for more than a goat.

     

    Looks like Ukraine, but the Mullahs are in luck. Turkey is on their side, Iraq is on their side, Pakistan by sheer coincidence will not be an American/Israel tool, Iran is capable to secure sea cost for any "democratic" operatives landing by boat. Kwait, Qatar will keep away.

     

    What do you think is happening?

    What do you think will happen next?

     


  18. 14 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

    Saudi Arabia could be in trouble but the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait will be very rich with or without oil as these states have small populations and vast investments across the world.

     

    That is an ingenious way to look at it, but they all suffer from none being able to produce food. Your point is till valid since its less trouble to feed small popultion than a large one. Qatar being a good example of what can happen.

     

     


  19. As per different regions of the somali people having different interests related to their status in different countries or regions, I don't think anyone can deny that the Somali in Djibouti has different interests than the Somali in NFD. Some times these regional interests may even be so different as to be close to opposite. If one can not recognize this and try to minimize the effects and negative impact of the differences, one will have a difficult and even impossible to keep one region together orderly and at peace let alone to bring different regions together.

     

    There is a book written on the death of two brothers, both colonels one on Ethiopia side and another on Eritrea side in 2000.

     

    After seeing the Scottish voting wanting to separate from the home of one of the greatest empires, which the Scottish participated, and more than 300 years of united government, almost lost their Gailic language and for the most part speaking English....It gives one to look at things calmly and less emotions.

     

    As for you being so convinced that I am Tigray, can't help, sometimes what looks apparent is far stronger than truth. Its not useful to try to explain someone who has made up their mind and trying to fit everything into that box.

    To add to your conviction or misconception, Weyannie means revolutionary and was name of the rebellion in northern Ethiopia (led and mostly Tigray) in 1942. It was defeated by British planes and fire bombing, same as German cities like Dresden, planes from Yemen since the ones from Eritrea were not enough. The Weyannie captured 4 Generals of King Haileslassie in 2 weeks and the British empire could not allow the toppling of King Hailesslaslassie who they were trying to restore after defeat of Italy in 1941. That rebellion was called Weyannie I.  And the next Rebellion that started in 70s (led and mostly Tigray) is called Weyannie II. Hope this helps confirm what you already believe to be a fact.


  20. On Issue of Somaliland:

    1. I said the population in Somaliland is same as rest of Somali, but had different colonizer separately and the population in Eritrea Afar, Tigrenya, Kunama, Saho, Agew are same as in Ethiopia, but had been colonized by Ital separately. T/F

    2. Somaliland got independence from British empire winding down, and Eritrea was given to UN as Allied liberated territory, which the British plan of splitting Eritrea half to Sudan and half to Ethiopia failed and UN placed it a federated state with Ethiopia. T/F

    3. Somaliland joined the rest of the Somali that were under Italy 1960s and Eritrea was forced to join the unitary rule in Ethiopia 1960s. T/F

    4. Eritrea wanted to be a country of its own, and achieved it with so much bloodshed and destruction, separate from Ethiopia and Somaliland is trying to achieve same with no or least bloodshed. T/F

    5. Colonial borders did not apply to both Eritrea and Somaliland, so AOU could not recognize Eritrea and AU cannot recognize Somaliland since both Eritrea and Somaliland were in their respective countries when Africans agreed to keep countries based on Colonial borders. T/F

     

    These are facts no matter stated by anyone.

     

    Just to give you an example to this problem of having different colonizers please see this article about Libya, where the British, French and Italians are not allowing negotiations by various means among different entities.

    https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1122526/‘former-occupiers’-seeking-role-libya-66-years-after-its-independence

     

    " As Libya marked on Sunday its 66th Independence Day, its officials lamented that their country is still the focus of the old colonialists, represented by France, Italy and Britain.

    Benghazi MP Issam Jihani stated that Libya is now being divided between French, Italian and British interests.

    Our country is now an open ground to them and others. It is clear to all that each side wants to empower one Libyan side against the other. As soon as Libyan forces come close to national reconciliation, they meddle to make sure that it fails,” he stressed.