Old_Observer
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Posts posted by Old_Observer
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What ever the grievances, the small ones and the big issues, I think this is absolutely wrong timing. If some of you think this is the right time to get at Illey since he is facing challenging situation as everyone is in Ethiopia, and this is the right time to get rid of him for reconciliation with Oromos, I do not think the desired result will be achieved, without creating bigger wounds.
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I have a feeling this will rub off to Soaliland and Puntland. What do you think? Djibouti of course will fight tooth and nail for the monopoly it has with Ethiopia and now considering south Sudan as well. Djibouti is guaranteed 60% of Ethiopias business and now 70% including new ports, even if Eritrean ports open for Ethiopia. That is signed and sealed.
The eastern board from Qandela to deep in Kenya seems all dead. Ports like Kismayu could have had a lot of competion for Ethiopian busness. Distance is not far for Ethiopias trade with eastern Asian cuntries.
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Holac, You had the serious picture, and here is a picture of money both laughing.
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Its late for some of them, but finally seems the federal government will provide support.
The problem with Somali is like Afar from Eritrea. The Afar from Eritrea are not registered as refugees in Afar and Tigray regions, therefore not registered for UN refugee programs. Same with Somali displaced. The number is much less than the real displaced.
here is more gruesome news hard to believe, but real:
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Djibouti will be singapore or Monaco soon. Every important country wants Djibouti to be safe secure. A lot of Ethiopians are already there with restaurants, clubs, shipping work etc..Imagine all the intelligence agencies that will come following the bases and ships and all Djibouti coast line becoming ports.
Even corruption becomes tolerable if there is such future. Corruption is intolerable where hope gets dimmed.
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Che,
Those are a lot of chickens to count, some of them hard to count not hatched yet.
The Saudis have failed, but heavy cloud hanging over Syria. I do not think the Mullahs will lose control, but a lot of destruction can happen to Iran. That is all Saudi money used by Israel and America.
Of all the risks, Yemen is most significant and if the current media shutdown, poisonings and weaponized colera ccontinues, expect unthinkable acts of bravery from Yemen on Saudi and others.
Until now Yemen is fighting clean war against dirty Saudi war, but at some point Yemen also will start dirty war.
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Both water and Electricty are close to being solved by importing from Ethiopia. As demand increases Djibouti needs to increase the purchase.
Somalilanders and Djiboutians are in fierce competition business wise in Djibouti and in both. Somaliland had business plan and close to implement a port dedicated to cattle and meat exports, Boom Gelle builds a port dedicated for this purpose in Northern Djibouti. Some businessmen including from Somaliland were interested in handling of Potash, Boom Gelle builds a new port dedicated for this purpose in northern Djibouti.
The French must have been the most useless empire. They kept djibouti the way they found it and handed it the family from Ethiopia as it was. Everyone seems to talk about employment etc, but the place is not conducive to manufacturing or textiles. Relative to Saudis and others Gelle is doing a better job in terms of developing the place as service.
One should see Saudi Arabia in the east and the border areas with Yemen as compared to Ryad or Jeddah to appreciate what is being done in Djibouti. As per corruption and nepotism, its same as what goes on everywhere. Some who have nuclear power corrupt ith it and some who have camel power corrupt with it. Its with what one does from the left over that matters.
Djibouti is doing better than all the countries around it. That is positive.
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Expect some trouble with DEMOCRACY. I don't think George Soros democratic empire is active there, but who knows all those educated Somalilanders, some can be recruited to join the army of democracy, human rights and all the Orwellianism.
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I have contrarian view on this. This is British work against everybody. The British will come now to Reconcile and ask for pound of flesh to do that. Syria will gain a lot out of this. Iraq will benefit a lot out of this.Turkey also is benefactor. Israel and Egypt biggest losers, the Saudis will try to reconcile with money.
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To my knowledge and reading and some personal knowledge there seems to be truth and fiction all woven in emotion filled prognostication here. The fact that the late president Abdullahi Yusuf is one who wanted well for all Somalis, where ever they are and which ever clan or tribe belonged to and tried to make it a reality to the best of his capacity and situation he inherited is with no doubt. But lets see his opinion and wish some spoke openly some descerned: Ethiopia Somali - He was long convinced the the Ethiopia Somali will have to be in Ethiopia and succeed there. Even in his angry confronattions with Ethiopia and arrest by Mengistu, he did not change his views on this. Meles was convinced of this stance long ago.
Somaliland - He saw as positive that there is a government and order in the first place, regardless of what follows. He was convince that by offering confederation (Somalia and Somaliland) or federal system both with changed regions added some force threat/pressure and incentives he could have one territory/country. There was no situation or means to start with this issue. He had contacts among the tribes so can be used for pressure when time comes. Accusations from Mogadishu parties that Puntland should wage war against Somaliland if we are to accept Puntland leadership was fake since what the ICU did was the same, that is head to Mogadishu first. There was actually a joke, but serious question that some Somali official asked Meles how Meles accpted Eritrea independence/separation when his own mother is Eritrean. He told him the bloodshed had to stop. No mountain or river to claim as ones country is worth the lives that was being paid.
The late president Abdullahi Yusuf had same, that if the price in human terms is going to be high, it will bring total break up of Somalia, same as Eritrea was close to bringing total break up of Ethiopia. Historically Somaliland and Eritrea are exactly the same: Eritrea has same people as ethiopia, but was colonized by Italy separately. Somaliland has same people as Somalia but colonized by British empire, separately. As empires were winding down Eritrea was made to join Ethiopia and Somaliland joined Somalia. The most of independence Eritrea achieved was federal state, but Somaliland had independence. Even though both had colonial borders, by the time Africa decided to keep colonial borders Somaliland was in Somalia and Eritrea was in Ethiopia.
President Abdullahi Yusuf had one disagreement with Meles, actually it was not with Meles, but with the Ethiopian military. The disagreement was regarding the south west and central Somalia flashpoint Kismayu. Due to this disagreement the Ethiopians left Kismayu and area in couple of days. The disagreement involves the Os and Ms which have quite an influence and contact with Ethiopia and were not happy ot accepting of TFG. In central Somalia it was choice and preference of governors since the warlords some had joined the TFG campaign, but wanted bigger reward than the president wanted them to have.
If you think Somalia is the easiest country to dismantle, Even if you are convinced that is what Meles wanted, you are wrong. For Meles Djibouti was easiest. Even with voting, Djibouti could always have voted to join Federal Ethiopia in the majority.
What all the Internet analysis and pile of some true some false information cannot and will not tell you is that All these persons in leadership at the time from Somalia, Somaliland or Ethiopia have in person seen and experienced the fact that a small province or tribe can bring down empires or countries that seemed unshakable in some days. Politics is also the art of the possible and not the emotional diatribe. The late president Abdullahi Yusuf could not be arguing with Meles about Somaliland when he is having difficulty and was almost impossible for him to enter Mogadishu.
Be practical, even when its hard to accept the theory.
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Apparently some months ago there was a meeting of Somali clan elders and Oromo Abba Gaddas and the federal government. They all agreed and recognized then that the conflicts then were starting to take a new twist. Foreign financed anti-federal anti-peace forces are involved.
The Somali stated that they have cleaned their state and are doing the best they can Al-Shabab doesn't operate even close to border. One of the Somali elders stated in the interview that he had told the gathered and the prime minister- Don't you see the difference between Kenya and Ethiopia when it comes to terrorism, who do you think has made this difference, its the Somali, there fore the Oromo needs to do the same with their region -
The news now is that both the speaker of parliament Abadulla Gemeda and Bereket Simon have withdrawn their resignation and will continue in their functions.
The executive has issued statement at end of their 15 days meeting. The test will be on the Oromo regional government.
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There is a Somali saying that Illey has made it famous in Ethiopia. "This cry is for more than a goat"
Is that the case here?
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This Djibouti is a suvivor. Eritrea would like nothing than total destruction of Djibouti. Now Djibouti is on its 4th port and Eritrea have not found user for their century old two ports.
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If the past is to be considered greatly, Abdi Qaybdid is one of the most dangerous men.
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2 hours ago, Holac said:Farmaajo spoke too soon. He should have let his deputies do all the talking.
Holac,
I think he wanted to get ahead with the message, instead of letting otheres give contradictory or different explanation.
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Not to make lite of the corruption in Somalia, but the UN is most corrupt itself. That is one reason the UN does not make public how much money it gave one faction or another. Since this is world money, you would expect them to make it public, since is not supposed to have strings as countries do.
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17 hours ago, Holac said:OO, perhaps you can shed light on the activities of Indian companies in Ethiopia.
The Indians have always had a community in Ethiopia from long ago. During the king there was thousands of them that came as teachers and a few of the current government officials have done their studies in India. The human connection.
Business wise There are few Indian universities that share classroom lessons through network TV connection with classes in Ethiopian universities most in computer science and Medical. Which means students in India and Ethiopia are attending same classes.
India wants to have large farms in Ethiopia for its food, this is partly on going.
India has loaned Ethiopia some money for projects in small way competing with China and Japan.
There are couple of textiles as well that are machinery supplied and run by Indian companies, but too small to compete with Turkey, China.
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History (political) is better viewed from power centres. I start from those outside the Republic:
Djibouti - Its in their interest to keep what they have. The moment the Somali starts giving priority to anything other than Djibouti, the Somali loses Djbouti. No Somali should blame them for this, unless one expects them to throw away everything they have and worry about the rest of the Somali which they have least influence. done.
Ethiopia - Not considering all that went on in this part by Britain, Ethiopia, Italy, Somali Republic since it was all in the past, the Somali at the time we are considering has already thrown his lot with Ethiopia. Will stay in Ethiopia and try to improve his status and part in Ethiopia. Even with all his Somaliness the late president Abdullahi Yusuf agreed and blessed their decision when he was being freed from Mengistu prison.done
Kenya - The situation was ambigous and too far from the action and influence. done
Republic:
SSDF was the only organization that could have made the rebellion work with the least fructuring. SSDF had something in common with every Somali. They are regional centered and since the idea was that all Somalis felt not to again be ruled from Mogadishu for every detail, wanted to have local control, this would be accepted by most Somali. SSDF was also an over all Somali who had contacts in all north centre or south of the country and can negotiate with anybody. This was also the organization that had most solid and trusty relations with the new governemnt in Ethiopia.
SNM had had enough of the past and the only way it could participate with the rest was SNM is the driver/pilot. This was not possible with others, but was possible to work with SSDF. Confederation might have worked at the time, but to continue the same structures with change of personnel and party could not be a solution. Many of us cannot understand that its Italian colonialism of 60 years that made Eritrea a totally separate country even though 90% of its population is same as Afar Agew Tigray in Ethiopia.
USC was just a replacement of the Republic government by different president, different tribe that is all nothing new could happen. It did not even organize what they call their base and were only worried about other regions, to be brought under Mogadishu. That base is still in conflict while almost all others have at least have governments and attempt at order and security, some in south west still unseuccessfully.
BAY looks like caught off guard, things happened so suddenly and not prepared for anything. Should have allied with SSDF and at the very least would have achieved local order and government by now.
Some of you compared it with Ethiopia, but in Ethiopia most of the hard work was done, long before overthrow of Dictator. Tigray, Afar, Agew (Amhara Region) were like one organization from begining. Next allied was Somali and Hareri. The rest followed same. There was enough support in Oromo and Amhara as well, once inevitability was confirmed.
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Until recently USA and Britain were directly cometing with China in Financing projects and even government budget. Now the only tool left is WB and IMF.
There is also an impression now created there is money to be made in Ethiopia. There is a scandal now in Israel, because some government agency lobbyed the Ethiopians for land lease on behalf of some Israeli companies.
It looks China is driver seat, then Japan, then Europeans in Ethiopia. Countries like Turkey and India would get preference always since Turkey is one country that will not dictate or be unfairly selfish.
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8 minutes ago, Holac said:I missed that. Old_Observer, can you tell to us how you understood the words of our beloved sister Barwaaqo?
I think will keep it semi secret for now. Hope you understand. It also increases the aura to some participants here who think are big enough for a Tigray agent to discuss and exchange with.
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8 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:There's no disagreement as one side has the legal authority, the other doesn't.
Che,
That is true, but as it stands now the SFG agency will not be able to provide assistance or follow invetigation if something happened over Somaliland.
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19 hours ago, Dahireeto said:Old Observer admires the Somali people. We should welcome him with open arms. We don't care if he is a Yahuud or Siberian. His ethnicity is irrelevant.
Dahireeto,
Thank you. I am afraid that some members are trying to prevent any other view diffeent to theirs being posted and if they cannot prevent the posting trying to stop others from reading it. For some anything different seems to be all Tigray smae as with Russia in America. Very unfortunate. There are close to 7 million Somalis in Ethiopia, quarter of million in Djibouti, a million more Kenya, and tens of thousands in Sudan, similar in Uganda and others...
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13 hours ago, Barwaaqo said:Oo
Oo annigu Ingiriisiba ma qoree sidee qoraalkayga ku fahamtay , Waxaan arkayey adigoo soo xiganaya hadal aan qoray. Waliba Waxaan isku dayaa Inaan qoro farsomali aan la google-turjimi karin xiligan. AFkayaga miyaad baratay?
How could I get the message, if you think I need to get it translated, but cannot be translated""""
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Hopefully this can be resolved. Air traffic control is not only guiding traffic but also being able to provide assistance when difficulties or accidents happen. One also needs to investigate incidents, or at least preserve the sight if other countries help is needed to investigate.
If this disagreement continues both can loose the authority again and returned to UN, IATA..control as it has been.
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U.S. Gives Israel Green Light to Assassinate Iranian General Suleimani
in Politics
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I think more than anything else his success with Kurdistan must have crossed the ultimate red line for both Israel and America. That was complete success with very little fighting to the satisfaction of Turkey, Iraq and Iran.
Israel's plan was to supply Kurdistan from the air, but the air was closed by all 3 countries. I might sympathise with the Kurds, but if one repeatedly trusts empires against ones natural neighbours, I think one loses sympathy.