Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. I think the Americans are encouraging him. Some Americans do not like Samora Mohamed Yonus the chief of staff of the military, maybe it is something to do with Sudan in the past. In Sudan he is treated as citizen of their country. He also does not have bad name among Somalis unless the ones determined to be enemies no matter what. Some Ethiopians think that the recent restructuring of the general staff and having deputies which was not before was to ensure continuity of the same policies. Even if Americans get to change prime minister, but at least will not be able to create conflict with Sudan.
  2. There was big fight in the kilil -what do you think he should have done? The people were exhausted 100 years nothing but wars, and draught was coming still coming every other year what would you have done? Forget the Tigray or Oromo. The Somali has existed and exists independent of Tigray. The Somali was at war 100 years and Tigray were not anywhere near. Tigray this Tigray that will not make problems go away. The people are there, the problems are there, exhaustion is there, poverty is there and only increasing year after year, animosity is running deeper as the years go by...what would you have done? I think he did a better job, and no matter how many mistakes he did, people are thanking him. He even helped change the image of the Somali. As far as Tigray or Oromo your choice seems to be obvious. At this time the Somali has no capacity economic, manpower, educated numbers, past participation (Somali lived as outsider in Ethiopia), there fore the Somali can only make choice that is least risk, but maybe better results. But what I ask anyone like you who has a mountain of wrongs pointing finger at Illey or kilil is what would you have done?
  3. America is very serious it was not just saying the right thing to both sides America is against the State of Emergency There was a plan that was simaltaniously expected to explode in 10 major cities to bring down the government. Thanks to electronics and probably the Chinese, British may have intercepted it. All other cities was called off, but one Amhara city Gonder has stay at home. Must have been pretty dangerous to defy America (at least state department). But American officials are also divided some have been lobbyed by Amhara DC is Amhara city. Israel almost always will be Tigray. On a smaller scale this is also showdown Saudi Arabia/Egypt and Qater/Turkey Even what you think a conflict of warlords or tribal chieftains can become international so quickly and easily. QERO the Oromo Al shabab has only one call now. Make the Oromo president PM of Ethiopia otherwise we will kill you. Amhara is of course still in confusion. They think they can take power from Tigray at any time future, but once it goes to Oromo its the end, because language issue is coming next immediately.
  4. But no one expected this deep and this committed to extent of calling war and destruction
  5. lol why not. A lot of countries have been destroyed by facebook revolution and fake news.
  6. Why henchmen Is it because they did not separate Somali kilil and joined it to Somalia? What if they separate from Ethiopia, but join Djibouti instead, would that make you happy. Even Somalis that were most opposed to Illey, have appreciated the safety of the people at this dangerous time. If you expected the Somali to go out and destory the few clinics or schools, then you do not know a thing about people.
  7. That is becoming almost impossible. The succeess of Somali in America or elsewhere even as refugee keeps enforcing the wrong understanding. That "we are different". This is also shown even by europeans when they say white the mediteranean is out of it. Its all relative. I think having religion and related culture for long time and not being religion that came with european colonialists makes it strong. And of course comparing communities every advantage economic, cultural counts.
  8. But he thanked the same Amhara government and even the security forces specifically. He also never said the people are Amhara, what he stands for is the area should be in Amhara kilil. This is the case when two elephnats fight the grass suffers. The original people are Agew, but in a hundred years have become Amharic speakers. The Tigray did not loose their language.
  9. If there is chaos in Addis Ababa it is the end of Ethiopia. Some regions are capable to reject what ever comes from Addis Ababa, which means bigger trouble even for those who seek power. The Big question is what is America doing? Do they want another Ukraine. Americans know there are regions that will not accept any government that comes by short cut which opens door for everybody. America may see best opportunity to dismantle China plan for all of Africa. If the Americans kill Chinese plan here, they can kill it anywhere in Africa. But if America tries and fails, Ethiopia may not be openly against America, but is lost cause. America of course chooses Amhara, but the Oromo maynot be easy to buy or cheat this time. After all this the Oromo will loose their kilil if Amhara has his way. That is first target.
  10. The problem is capacity. Prioretizing is done as per capacity. Jigjiga can only first look to Oromo that is close and threatening cities and towns then as capacity allows can move to outerlands. The idea was to work with the Federal government, but that also became a problem since the Somali had divided alliance. The Oromo also suffer the same with divided alliance, but in their case both OPDO and OLF had the same objective, Oromo dominance. It maybe too late, but still Smali kilil should work with the federal government at a minimum for safety of the people.
  11. I think some Somalilanders are missing the place and role of Neighbouring region. No matter how much OneSomalia for all Somali - group seems and sounds enthusiastic, if he/she is in Kismayu and finds some local issue, he she will focus on it. For Somaliland Puntland is like local issue and viceversa. If some village is not significant economically, socially, politically or militarily, why risk war with neighbour?
  12. Oodweyene, It good to be enthusiastic and dedicated to your objective and also knowing what needs to happen which you do abundently. When the rubber meets the road, slightly different tools are required. If Eritrea had not alleyed fears of the Afar, there was enough to throw a monkey wrench to the whole case. I understand the leadership in Puntland is not taking advantage of the situation. Puntland should have been where the dollars, pounds, dinnars rain, instead even the SFG is trying to reduce what is due to Puntland. Mogadishu is now too far to Puntland geographically, politically and economically. Puntland better compete for Dubai with you and they can win that competition. As far as districts and villages are concerned, its always a murcky proposition. Don't waste too much energy on it, unless its important for image and propaganda in Somaliland. I hope you would not cause trouble just for propaganda and public consumption or buying off some village lord. That village lord will change in a heart beat. There is also case of chewing more..Since you have to develop and maintain the new villages. Never forget that any Somali region can create an army in a hurry if its find to be worth it, or someone can afford it. If your immediate neighbours Djibouti, Somali Kilil and Puntland, who as you know are all in synch at the moment are displeased enough you will have problems all the way. Example: If Somali kilil does not have modus vivendi with you its trouble with Ethiopia. Military is always temporary. If that was the case a few empires from past millenium would still be alive. Military of Somaliland can get easily bored keeping a village border, especially far away from the action in capital or ports. Anyhow limit the threats, and sometimes bordering arrogance on Puntland.
  13. Great. Now the telephone interests will put asphalt road to his office.
  14. In every country there are provinces, districts that every citizen recognizes as sacrificing for the common good. In America its Pensylvannia. In Canada its Manitoba. In UK its north east. In Ethiopia Afar. In Sudan Jeaalin etc What is the common characteristic of these places. They accomodate both exytemes of any country. In addition to the fact that Somalia has not been able to set-up a functioning government that can reach all borders or even run the Capital and close by regions properly and total control, the big elephant is also waiting, Somaliland. For those who want united Somalia Puntland is fine with some safeguards that the past will not repeat For those who want almost total autonomy with very little common government Puntland is fine with safeguards that every region does not become banana of different powers These places in almost all countries get ignored or taken for granted. The One Somalia internet army for example expects Puntland to fight Somaliland. And Somaliland would love nothing but for Puntland to cut here connections to Mogadishu. Up to this point this has been manageable. One month Somalilanders are fully campaigning against Puntland and another time the OneSomalia folks are fuly campaigning against Puntland. This is like a cycle, seasonal and triggered by the smallest of issues. Somalilanders need to realize that what ever you want to achieve PUNTLAND is the key. If there is peace Garowe maybe best meeting place. If there is war Puntland is also meeting place. If Puntland says no war here. That is the end of it. No side can push it in any direction. If Puntland decides war maybe necessary no one can stop it. That is my view. OoDweyne, This factor is most critical item in your future. Don't rub the Pirateland the wrong way. One miscalculation can set you back to lala Land.
  15. very dangerous road. Almost all somai have same Diin. Issues need to be discussed on their merits and not use Diin as pit down or top of mountain criterion. If you see from Diin, are you accusing Djibouti, Somali region too for abondoning the idea of having one country of Somali only? Very dangerous angle which further divides and generates hateful culture. We all remember what happened ICU days where warlords hiding behind Diin, destroyed the best opportunity for Somali peace.
  16. 1900/1920 Italy Britain France were on the up and up Ottomans, Ottoman/Egypt and soon British Egypt and Ethiopians were on the down and out Somalis some up some down others lost, but all facing catastrophic political conditions inside and outside 1981/2018 Italy compeltely out France almost out but not to level of Italy Britain out but still significant USA is in China is in Turkey is in Egypt is down and out Ethiopia is fairly up Somalis: some up some down others lost and facing catastrophic political conditions inside outside What needs to happen to change this. To my understanding the situation of the Somali people is looks same as was 100 years ago. What followed 100 years ago was war battles..This time war battles need to be avoided by any means possible. If the same thing is repeated there cannot be different results. What do you think should be done.
  17. Illey had offered a suggestion regarding the internal discrimination that happens in one discussion. He mentioned the community that is discriminated and suggested that to marry 100 from that community and the other communities. some People laughed, some people were scared that he might dictate (lol), but most people thought, it might help. Every society has this north south, east west, that tribe this tribe even in some clan this accent ot that accent of Somali....Its endless and bottomless. Most arabs call africans in general Abid and even Habeshi that means mixed race is used to say slave by some arabs.
  18. Thank you. I missed that one, but is in the article. If chaos and murder of other Ethnics is way to gain power, why would others not try it too. Every other nationalitiy's Farx can have a go at it as short cut to power.
  19. But unfortunately the guy who had vowed to hand Mengistu to face justice also died Changrae The new guy will keep Mugabe's word since the army folks are the same. Ethiopia has made diplomatic representation, but that is it, even that was not put in the news.
  20. maakhiri1, I just read an article, looks like written by Amhara person about Oromo PM: Lema Megerssa is not qualified since: 1. He did not make any statement telling his QERO not to kill people of other Ethnics in Oromo region minimum and taking action would have been quality of leader 2. The call coming from Jawar and OLF makes it clear why Lema did not do anything but sweet talk empty Ethiopianism 3. He did not pass grade 12 with credits enough for university even on second try, but started work in government and somebody in government wrote a letter for him to attend Civil service college 4. Has no experience in dealing with diplomacy and the weight of Ethiopia added 5. Has no experience in dealing with neighbouring countries 6. Why cannot be another Oromo qualified even if insisting Oromo is wrong 7. Why cannot be from other nationalities 35 million people is no qualification or reason. An eye opening article.
  21. Looks like the negotiations that went on 1978 to 1981 between Derg and EPLF &ELF in Eritrea. At one point they had agreed confederation, but Mengistu thought the rebels are weak that is why they agree to confederation. He gathered 60 thousand soldiers in one place and tried to finish EPLF. Weyannie sent some 12 thousand fighters to Eritrea saved the day and Mengistu was downhill from there on. These negotiations went on in Moscow, GDR East Germany and Yemen South. Confederation is two countries very close to each other. Even Ghele proposed it 3 years ago with Ethiopia when he was in some logjam in Djibouti. Negotiated settlement is always preferable. It will last longer and the risks are minimal. Since Somalia Somaliland have both ports, minerals, lands no need to be all that cruel to one another.
  22. Mugabe had sworn to it and had kept his word in completely keeping Mengistu as house prisoner. In the beginning some fighters wanted to go and kill him there. A group was caught, but was simply sent back to Eritrea and Ethiopia (mixed group). The government of Ethiopia had agreed with Canada that to avoid war in Addis Ababa the solution was to give asylum to Mengistu that way collapsing his government. That is what happened. No matter how infuriating agreement need to be honoured. The US also worked with Canada.
  23. Puntland, Djibouti and Somali Kilil are the key empires in Somaliland's recognition or even peace. If these regions say there should not be Somali blood spilled any more. The whole case is finished. Any Somali who does not agree or like Somaliland becoming a country of its own is fighting against Somalilanders directly, but any Somali who wants to deny recognition has to support Puntland economically socially etc. If Puntland comes to conclusion of what is the point forcing a Somali kill each other for simply saying this mountain that port or that river belogs to the republic. After 30 years that is the conclusion the Afar, Agew and Tigray (shared people, split clans) reached and was all over for the rest of Ethiopians. Even those who saw Mengistu the butctcher as nationalist could not do anything. Now Mengistu brother is in Asmara in need of help from Isayas to bring down Weyannie and he sings praises of Isayas. Isayas just gives him drinks and women and will not let him do anything against Weyannie.