Historical context: Which way to the sea? Ethiopia has been landlocked and has sought a sea outlet intermittently for most of her history, at least since the Middle Ages. In 1776, Edward Gibbon, a renowned English historian, wrote: “Encompassed on all sides by the enemies of their religion, the Ethiopians slept near thousand years, forgetful of the world by whom they were forgotten.”6 Moreover, encouraged by the scramble for Africa among rival European powers in the nineteenth century, Emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia intensified his search for access to the sea. In 1878, in a letter to the heads of the governments of Italy, France, Germany, and England, he stated, “My road to the coast, to Zeila, Tojura, and Aden is at present closed by the Muslims.”7 Before 1952, when Eritrea (a former Italian colony on the Red Sea) was federated with Ethiopia, the eyes of Ethiopia’s leaders were fixated on the Eritrean port of Assab and the Somali port of Zeila, both on the Red Sea.8 Menelik’s efforts ended in failure. However, Emperor Haile Selassie, who ruled Ethiopia from 1930 to 1974, relentlessly sought to gain sea access. In a letter to the United Nations in 1948, he wrote: “Prior to the race of European powers to divide up Africa, Ethiopia included an extensive coastline along the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.”9 Haile Selassie tried to annex Zeila, a historical Somali port town, to Ethiopia between the late 1920s and early 1950s. To secure Zeila, he initiated a radical strategy of negotiating colonial power to exchange the Haud region for Zeila, which the current MoU is said to be centered on, and which is adjacent to Djibouti. Haud is a large swath of Somali territory and has been part of present-day Ethiopia since the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty of 1897 when Britain ceded it to Ethiopia for the latter’s support in suppressing Somali clans.10 That attempt failed, primarily because, based on strategic interests, the colonial powers— particularly Britain and Ethiopia—failed to reach an agreement. There was also fear of repercussions from Somalis in those areas.11 Recommendations For Somalia: It is imperative that Somalia actively assert its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Enhanced engagement with Somaliland is necessary, acknowledging the deep-seated aspirations for secession among some segments while aiming for a resolution that respects the collective will of all Somali people. Discussions should be approached with a vision for unity that accommodates diverse aspirations through inclusive governance, potentially offering broad autonomy to Somaliland. This approach would address fears of marginalization while preserving national unity and promoting cooperation For Somaliland: Somaliland needs to recognize that not all communities within its territory support secession. Negotiations should be guided by realism and pragmatism, aiming for an agreement that addresses Somaliland’s legitimate concerns while acknowledging the benefits of a united Somalia. This requires moving beyond the zero-sum mentality that has prevailed over the last thirty year For Ethiopia: Ethiopia’s demand for “sea access” does not justify infringing upon the sovereignty of another nation. Ethiopia is a landlocked country, and demanding territorial waters, a naval base, and a commercial port that belong to another country is an act of aggression. This could result in a prolonged conflict with Somalis both within Somalia and in the diaspora, as well as within Ethiopia itself. History has shown that Somalis have defended their territory against Ethiopian advances, notably forcing a retreat in 2006. Further, any attempt by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to cross into Somalia could significantly bolster al-Shabaab in a manner reminiscent of the group’s emergence following Ethiopia’s previous military ventures, which ended in failure. For the International Community: The international community must extend beyond mere affirmations of Somalia’s territorial integrity to actively discourage any actions that threaten Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. A firmer stance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aggression is required, one that emphasizes the need to respect international laws and norms. Diplomatic pressure, along with offers of mediation and support for dialogue, should be pursued vigorously, as heightened nationalism and fear have created a conducive environment for conflict. For All Parties: International organizations such as the United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development must recognize that the Memorandum of Understanding, as it stands, risks igniting an avoidable and unnecessary war. Such a conflict would likely result in the exponential and overnight metastasis of al-Shabaab, the largest and most resourceful Al-Qaeda affiliate in the Horn of Africa, and in the growth of ISIS, which has a foothold in Somalia. A cloud of war is hovering over the Horn, presenting a clear and present danger that necessitates action, not mere affirmation https://8v90f1.p3cdn1.secureserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Ethiopias-MoU-with-Somaliland-.pdf

Hargeysa is just, but a part of N West, then there are N East, N Central, far North etc. Is XX reer Axmed of S Muse?

You are still parroting the same diatribe as that of 20 years ago. You mean like this sharing of grants and aid? How does once city get more than all other regions put together? Or like this, a one jilib outfit. The list of the 6 #Taiwanese military scholarships and how they were tribally awarded. 2 scholarships: Reer Samatar, Sacad Muse, Gabiley Clan 2 scholarships: Jabriil Abokour, Sacad Muse, Gabiley Clan 2 scholarships: Isse Muse, Gabiley Clan https://twitter.com/RealSLVoice/status/1764174873591484596?s=20

True. Here is a segment by A Goodman. MN & VA this Tue. 2024 Primary Elections Calendar WWW.NBCNEWS.COM Track important calendar dates ahead the 2024 presidential election. Learn more on when primaries, caucuses, conventions and other...

This was a multiracial, multi-generational movement.’ Race and justice editor @kat__stafford on the Democrats who voted ‘uncommitted’ in the Michigan primary, and why some Black Americans have expressed solidarity with Palestinians. Listen now: https://reut.rs/3Tk1Bmb https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1764417998138282096?s=20

Both in the Primaries starting this Mar. 5th, and the General Election in November, as happened in MI. Time to stand up, and speak up for Palestine.

Nicely put. Just replace "Northerners" with reer Hargeysa.

XX is hoping never to have woken up from this SSC-Khatumo & Awdal nightmare, which gave birth to Central SL, a rather catchy, fitting name.

According to its Treasury, SSC-Khatumo generated 13 million USD in revenues from Las Anod alone in last quarter excluding grants and donations, which is promising. Ina Xambuuse is doing a fine job.

Sacad Shire #Somaliland finance minister cancels the largest and only investment #Awdal region has received citing it was approved by the Somali government. The road linking Borama to Djibouti is apparently different from projects like Biyo leh, Yariiso and the Berbera port. https://twitter.com/RealSLVoice/status/1764214054736830744?s=20

More importantly, what services is Yusuf Gaboobe providing to Bixiye with this price tag? ------------------------------ #Somaliland markii ugu horraysay ayaa shakhsi aan xil hayn kana tirsanayn hay'addaha kala duwan ee dawladda miisaaniyadda toos loogu daray magaciisa iyo dhaqaale u gaar ah. Xildhibaano ka tirsan Golaha Wakiillada oo aan la xidhiidhay ayaa ii sheegay in miisaaniyadii hore magacyo Ururro lagu soo gelin jiray shakhsiyaadkan. https://twitter.com/Hassangallaydh/status/1764377317789331893?s=20 Interesting fact: @musebiihi allocated more money to an alcoholic who defends him on twitter than renovating the hospitals of #Borama #Burco #Saylac #Saraar and #Hargaisa combined. https://twitter.com/RealSLVoice/status/1764388851890442660?s=20

Genocide ongoing in the Amhara region. Sorry to have to post the image, but it must be seen. Heart wrenching! https://twitter.com/zoomafrika1/status/1764407705823850690?s=20

SL MPs attacked for opposing the infamous MoU. So much for a democracy, stability, freedom of speech, and immunity for MPs.

Good man, now you are talking like a native. Enjoy, and do visit the schools and universities, listen to their stories, desires and aspirations. To enjoy the city, warts and all, break bread with the locals, and DO avoid regular haunts by the bourgeois wanna bees and diaspora. Yes, Xasan is just a wastrel weakling devoid of wisdom.

If these are Ethiopian government army, and whom we shall have to face to defend Somali territories, I think we shall fare better than fine, and will not even need al shabaab to join defences.

Very much reflections of what I would expect from a bloody foreigner on a hushed visitation to a war zone marinated with a toss of mislaid Somalinimo flavour to balm chapped cavities of the forlorn diaspora hordes. Take you seriously, I shall not, till you have taken a crowded bus, with tiny seats not fit for a tall, burly gentleman of a certain age, from Adam Adde airport, paid the $5 fee to stride to the taxi rack, fight your way through rows of poor beggars to find a taxi or a bajaj to your destination; then at dawn, take a stroll through Bakaraha market for a homely breakfast in one of the low end shacks-turned-restaurants competing fresh "laxoox / canjeelo" flying off the pan with builders / workers in the morning rush, and get a sodden whiff of the rubbish, from the day before, still stacked up in the streets. With that, you would be a local lad back at home. But with you fancy bulletproof limo, VIP reception, backdoor exit to the city, and trotting between blue beaches and fancy hotels, mate, you are a bloody foreigner on tour. Now, tell me, is Awdal safe? Is Lughaya secure? Is Ceel Sheekh off limits?

Ethiopian military officers in Lughaya. Ethiopia deploys its troops to Somali border with 5,000 in Buhodle area, sighting in Xanan weylood and Boqon goroyo.

Kenyan MPs incl. a Somali MP discuss the issue. "Kenya is next! The long game of Abiy is an Oromia Kush empire, which includes Asseb [#Eritrea], and stretches from Northern #Somalia to the Tana River in the Oromo-speaking part of #Kenya. Abiy is going to make the Horn of Africa the most unstable region." ------------------------------------------------------------- An invasion of Somali peninsula in the works. ETHIOPIA DEPLOYS 8,000 STRONG ARMY IN WARDHEER AND ADDITIONAL HEAVILY ARMED TROOPS IN GALMUDUG AND PUNTLAND SIDE OF THE BORDER ETHIOPIA EMPHASIZES PREVENTION OF REINFORCEMENTS AS OBJECTIVE #1 FOR PHASE I OF ITS INVASION OF AWDAL AND BUUHOODLE Ethiopia, for the first time since the war with the Islamic Courts of Somalia, deploys heavily armed troops at all border towns from Galgaduud to Buuhoodle. Just in the last two weeks, as an anonymous Ethiopian security official in Doollo confirmed to Daljir Media, Ethiopia has deployed 8,000 strong army in Wardheer. These troops are armed with tanks, APCs, and heavy military trucks mounted with antiaircraft guns, mainly the Zsu-37 guns. Reliable individual with access to the movement and planned movement of Ethiopian troops in the days ahead have also confirmed to Daljir that it isn't only Wardheer that Ethiopian troops are on the move, but they are also being deployed at the Galmudug side of the border from Jinbaclay of Uurmudug to Shillaabo. On the Puntland side of the border, additional troops are heading to Bookh, Gallaadi, and Galxamur. Security officials in Doollo and individuals with knowledge of Ethiopian tactics and troop movements are telling Daljir that the army is mostly geared towards the border side of SSC-Khatumo, in particular the Buuhoodle area, and other troops have already arrived on the Awdal side of the border. One security official who has extensive contacts with the Ethiopian army has explained to Daljir what the troop movements from Galmudug to SSC-Khatumo entail. He tells Daljir, "Everyone knows what #Ethiopia wants to do and will do, and Somalia can ignore these troop movements at their own peril." We asked him to explain further what that meant, and he said, "Ethiopia will take Awdal with ease and no opposition at all. However, the main battle will be between Somaliland and SSC-Khatumo, and the purpose of these troop movements is twofold. First and foremost, it is to provide support to Somaliland forces on their expected attack of Buuhoodle, Buqdharkayn, and the whole front with #SSC all the way to Oog." He explained the second part as "closing the Somali border with #Galmudug and #Puntland so no reinforcement my come from either side. This is the first phase of the war, and it is being planned right in front of everyone with no pushback so far from anyone, none from the Federal Government of Somalia and none from the federal member states." On the expected and some say imminent attack from Somaliland, Daljir reporters in Buuhoodle visited the frontlines and the first line of defense of SSC-Khatumo. SSC-Khatumo military officers have confirmed to Daljir that Somaliland has brought fresh conscripts to Yeyle, Buqdharkayn, Gocondhaale, Xararan and Hagoogane. The officers tell Daljir that they are "on high alert and ready for all expected and unexpected events." On the Oog and Guumeys frontlines, SSC military officers tell Daljir that Somaliland has vacated some areas, perhaps to strengthen other fronts, and that, in fact, there has been Ethiopian military officers visiting certain #Somaliland positions. However, they tell Daljir that there has been no unusual military movement on this side of the frontlines. "We have our eyes on the Buuhoodle front," one officer told Daljir. Given all the troop movements information Radio Daljir is receiving from throughout the Doollo region and has also been receiving from #Djibouti to Awdal, for all intents and purposes, it is now beyond any doubt that Ethiopia intends to invade #Somalia and take Somalia's #Saylac coast on the Red Sea by force. In that effort, it is possible that Ethiopia might provide some token support to Somaliland in their failed efforts to bring SSC-Khatumo under Hargeisa. President @HassanSMohamud has yet to take a single decisive step that may contribute to the defense of #Awdal State or that of SSC-Khatumo. > Daljir Media https://twitter.com/radiodaljir/status/1763314592774553609?s=20

The NCC election agreement also proposes a move away from the current semiparliamentary system to a presidential system, eliminating the role of the Prime Minister and changing it to a Vice Presidency. The President and the Vice President will be elected on a joint ticket by the public. The system of government has continued to be one of the contentious political issues in Somalia. At the federal level, Somalia has only had a presidential system during the 21 years of military rule. The pre-1969 civilian government (the first republic) and the governments that came to power from 2000 (the third republic) have to date had a president and prime minister. At the FMS level, Somalia applies a semi-presidential system. Puntland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle have Presidents and Vice Presidents elected by state legislators. Southwest has no Vice President as yet, while Jubaland has two appointed Vice Presidents.

The NCC agreement also outlines modalities for sub-national elections, as well as their timing and sequencing with national elections. • Local Council Elections: The agreement outlines that OPOV district council elections will be conducted by June 2024 (i.e.in just over a year) in all districts in Somalia. • Election of FMS Assemblies and Presidents: The agreement also stipulates that these would be based on OPOV between the two political parties that fared best in the local elections, marking a significant shift from the clanbased model all state assemblies currently use. These would take place on 30 November, 5 months after the conclusion of the local elections. • Election of the House of the People: National elections would follow from district elections, once two parties had been selected through this process. The agreement did not clarify the date that the federal parliamentary and presidential elections would take place. However, the agreement stated that elections at different levels of government will take place every five years starting from the date elections are concluded. For instance, if local elections are successfully held in June 2024, the next local elections will be in June 2029. It could also imply the next federal elections would take place in 2027. • Election of the Upper House: The electoral approach that would be used for the election of the members of the Upper House is not defined in the NCC agreement, although the constituency was agreed upon as the FMSs. The agreement also stated that the representation of the Benadir region in the Upper House would be clarified in legislation defining the status of Mogadishu according to Article 9 of the Provisional Federal Constitution.

Namely JL, SW, HS, and GM. In the last NCC leaders meeting, they all granted themselves an extension of a year to hold (s)elections, but nothing has been done as of yet. Could they be classified as functioning polities, or bona fide States on merit, and in their own rights? Do bear in mind, the function (power) of holding elections is a power for the FMSs, and not a Federal power. -------------------------------- This is a good analyses. SPA_Policy_Paper_05_2023_ENGLISH.pdf

Major difference: The US under the aegis of former President J Carter had been managing the entire process from within in consultation with both sides of the conflict. You should read his memoirs, and others' in the region for a more complete picture of how the Ethiopian conflict unfolded, and diffused.

Are you being serious? Any Somali could run for the highest office, he / she must work for it, build coalitions, cut through the nonsense, and show true leadership, as no one is going to give it up for free. If a serious contender from SL rises, he stands a far better chance of winning than most. My own civilian family members, natives of Hargeysa as far back as the 1800, had been killed by SNM, Gaas Dhagoole, and Calan Cas afterwards.