Illyria

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Posts posted by Illyria

  3. Posted

    6 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    No need to negotiate the Hargeisa regime unless they denounce secessions, period.

    All they are looking is cash.

    For the public good, and best outcome, of course negotiate with both SL & AS, as was the advice the US/EU offered XSM in his first trip to the US before he initiated a war he knew he could neither win nor had the support, militarily, logistically, or financially.

    6 hours ago, galbeedi said:

    Al-shbaab could no longer disrupt life and bomb Mogadishu at will anymore, and this was achieved through hard work.

    Let not the aesthetics of Xamar seduce you, as AS is very much present, in control of its vital organs, business or otherwise, laying low with their leaders still in the city, collecting dues at the airport, port, even government officials, and could easily disrupt taking over the city, but the question is: could they hang on to it. Recall how everyone thought Thaliban were dead and buried, yet it took them a week to take over Afghanistan. Same tactics and methods in play here.

  4. Posted

    3 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

    Masha Allah, nicely put, very eloquent, the issue of secession, they will make stories, true or fictional, grievances, real or perceived, or even fabrication, exaggeration, to further their agenda,

    You have understood and identified their issue very well.

    Many people, from South, fail to grasp this or many times are even persuaded or fell for this misinformation by separatist, or sometimes too preoccupied with Mogadishu politics, greed,  or incompetence,  BUT with Goojacade, SSC issue, Awdal ,and now the Somali sea, it is becoming very clear, these guys are dangerous to Somali people.

    There are only few options left.

    • Let go of secessionist enclave, secessionists clearly understand now, SSC, will never be part of them, so as Maakhir who have now cemented with PL, Also remove Awdal. Habro territory only can form a country, it is big enough.
    • Make a real deal , focus and pay attention, give them a deal they cannot refuse, this may not work, as Somali Presidents are not very reliable partners too, very big trust issue, for example, they meant to get some share of the resources coming from ICAO, but instead of trust building, Mogadishu took everything, this is multiplied many times over,  offer a good deal,  Canada style
    • Tigray , Tamil tigers, Spain, Catalonia, etc,  defeat them, this is very likely scenario, 
    • Possible implosions, very likely too, as the Somalilanders are doing big injustices to themselves too

    Very kind of you.  You raised very good points of how best move forward, and I think under the right leadership, a viable solution is nearer than ever, and the more stable and capable FGS institutions get, the weaker the hand of SL, and eventually its bargaining chips shall have been diminished, which will make harmonisation much easier. Again, under the right leadership. 

    Addendum:
    I am actually of the view of adopting the China-Hong Kong-Taiwan approach, where we let political configurations as it, till comes the time, where confidence and mutual public good had been had in all concerned parties in the Somali peninsula. No need for rushed or forced solutions, just let matters take their natural course. Things are rapidly changing for the better. 

  6. Posted

    25 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Not really  i absolutely dissagree   protecting the nations very own security and political stability  doesnt make u bad or to be against the public good..  if some segment of the public want to  cause mayhem. Then it for the larger good u try to stop this uprise,  the same way the president of russia is dealing with the Ukrainian trouble makers .  Ur doing it for the larger good

    The biggest threat to nation states are corrupt political leaders. Their biggest weapon is to subjugate the populace, and abuse their powers in the name of  national security.

    • Why does the public revolt: against injustice.
    • What do just nation states do: address injustices, perceived or otherwise.
    • What do broken, corrupt leaders do: destabilise to justify their methods by imprisoning, killing, uprooting the public.

  7. Posted

    Servility and conformity, as a moral failure, in the act of being beholden to a political ideology, even when proven to be dangerously wrong. Case in point: criminal atrocities in Las Anod, wrongs against GXJS, the struggle of reer Awdal, the infamous MoU to name a few. You fail to see validity in any of those, for you are subservient to a political ideology, which goes against the public good (principle) for the people.

  11. Posted

    2 hours ago, Arafaat said:

    Xaaji Xunjuf, you seriously want to invest in agriculture in Ethiopia, thereby producing investments, employment and currency for Ethiopia, instead you could have also invested in agriculture in Awdal, Gebiley, Erigavo, and all those other fertile lands thereby creating employment and investment for Somaliland, and on top of that kill Somalilands lifeline of Berbera Port, tax revenue for Somaliland government and employment generated directly and indirectly through the port? 

    You can’t be serieus 😟 

    Mind not XX, for he is not guided by principles, but desire for the untenable, and neither thinks through nor absorbs the implications, economic or otherwise, of what he is trading. As sussed out, he is stuck in another galaxy.

  12. Posted

    6 hours ago, galbeedi said:

     

    Xaaji is a lunatic and there is no need to debate. He says 85% of the British land. East Sanaag is even bigger than the whole region of Sool and is out of the control of Somaliland. Badhan, Hadaaftimo, Dhahar, Laasqoray and east of Erigaabo is under Puntland or under Maakhir clan.

    Furthermore, I know where Xaaji is coming from and I am not worried about him. The end of Somaliland project is the end of perks and the crumbling of the lies of 35 years, and I don't blame him.

    I don't waste time with him, but I am watching the more dangerous man called Carafaat.

    He is trying to revive the dying project and the SSDF man Illyria is on board albeit in different ways. The bloody rebel are always in cahoots or work together. Anyway, Carafaat is a Waddani Party man with few distinctions from Kulmiye in terms of foreign policy. Even the old statesman C/qaadir Jirde is on board about the base and Ethiopian recognition plot. Mind you the GX are very hungry both for money and power, they have been crying for power for 31 years . With the weak leader Cirro flanked by Hirsi Gaab and Hargeisa oligarchs don't expect anything good. That is the message I am sending to people in Mogadishu. Waddani could be worst.

    I know the evil Kulmiye is always plotting and I heard lately that they want Rayaale to join their ranks. I don't know their intentions, but I heard they are combining a corrupt guy who sold every government building and land during Ahmed Siilaanyo time called Cali Mareexaan with Rayaale in order to destroy the Awdal State Movement project.

    Furthermore, the GX will boast as those who paid the most blood for the project and might even complicate things. DEsperate people are expected to do the unthinkable like Biixi just did,  and hungry people might even do worse than Biixi.

    So, Mr. Carafaat, stop this games and come to the table of unity and find new creative ways of ending this project.

    Poor Galbeedi, for all the follies he could have scoffed, he lumps me with the colony-minded, serfdom-seeking, emperor-prostrating, jewel-auctioning, sea- dropping, land-grabbing, glue-sniffing, elders-abandoning, weapons-tossing, surrendering, dithering secessionists. I shall be kind till Awdal (our grandmother's land) has been liberated, with FMS status secured, from the fangs of the secessionists.

    True, rebels always pioneer, and one thing we have in common: A Somali peninsula free from subjugation and tyranny, a better future than that which the awful allies of "Ildab" had left it. By the way Galbeedi, that 15m for Awdal would not have happened had it not been for PL. You could than reer PL later. 

  13. Posted

    1 hour ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    about 75 percent comes from tax, custums   and 25 percent is inland revenue

    I could see you skipped school the day economics and accountancy were being taught. Last time I peeked at the budget for 2023: 87% of the revenue is through customs and excise, 78% of which is through Berbera. The primary user of Berbera has been Ethiopia for a number of years. Wajaale & Kalabaydh customs are relevant because of Berbera, and in the event Ethiopia has its own port, neither would be relevant. Now, do you want to revisit your original statement of being able to do with less revenue from Berbera? 

  15. Posted

    10 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Who is this colonel Cassayr i never heard of him  yuu ka yahay reerka  ada ba war haya cawa igu hooreysa  what is his first name.. Do u mean odaygi anu wax isku ahayn eeh buurta korey kaas soooti la so celiye he is now chilling in addis ababa his living dream there is no Grx forces being led by any one

    Casayr was an SNM veteran, former Somali national army, the Russia crew.

    You are talking about Caarre or Oofwareen.

    Now you know I know more about the reality in SL than you do.

    • Haha - That was funny. You made me laugh! 1

  16. Posted

    3 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Well who says that is going to stop we will still use our ports , even today  only less then 15 percent is used by Ethiopia . Ethiopia still doesnt fully use it , Berbera will still be used domestically by us we will just lose a potential client. But we neet to get the revenue  from some place  else most income comes from tax   via berbera and that still will happen  and the customs In kala baydh and wajaale and that is not gonne stop either. We will only make a killing if Ethiopia uses our ports 40 percent then we will make allot of money. As of today most of our income comes from our domestic use  the tax we put on our imports and the live stock export.

    Of SL's 2023 annual budget of 420m, who much of that do you think is from taxes?

  17. Posted

    2 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    These are captured people or dead people.. Somaliland army is in oog which is  sool it controls the entire caynabo district and the bohol sub district of the district of xudun.. Its lost laascanood district and  taleex district i  can concede that. but thats not 60 percent  xisaabta ku noqo

    Truth: SL actually does not have an actual standing army to speak of, but that is a conversation for another day for the grown-ups.

    Col Casayr is neither dead nor imprisoned, but is leading GXJS forces, but you would not know.

  18. Posted

    2 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Yes  if the  fertile land they gave us as a lease gives us enough revenue to cover for the port revenue we made we just need anoter pillar of our economy we have livestock  we have the port trade , if we are willing to lose the port trade  then we need to get something in return something that fill that Gap. So far  Ethiopia exchanged  Ethiopian ariline share  and recognition for a lease on the coast for their navy this is the facts we have. Nothing yet about a comerical  port

    You do realise 78% of SL annual revenue is sourced through Berbera port. For now I am intentionally not bringing in the regional security threat that would pose.

  19. Posted

    4 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

     

     

    Sixty percent    SL lost  only   two districts in Sool pretty much nothing has changed it has still 85 percent  of the Territory . So u dont have to overeact at all . if Somaliland lost 60 percent of its territory that means it would have lost  all of sanaag all of sool and half of Togdheer  and even parts of saaxil. When in fact it last  only two districts of Sool. Which it  will fight for to get it back

    Generals Garka Yogol & Botan would disagree with you. So would Col. Casayr. Reality is little different from where I am seated than how you are describing it. I am afraid we are not all wearing tinted glasses made in Dumbuluq.

  20. Posted

    16 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    ofcourse not  that would make Berbera  useless that is economically suicide . How ever if they insist  on  having a port we need a new agreement where as they give us more concession such as fertile land in Ethiopia one of the coffee farms and where we can produce vegies and fruits and even export it . only then we can agree to something  like that. a lease for a lease.. So far its just a naval base though  and their share in berbera port and a possible joint Miliitary alliance  These 3 principles we know . Comercial port has not been discussed so far

    I am trying to follow your thought process: If Ethiopia agrees to give a farming land in return, you would willing to trade that for a land for a naval base and a port on the Red Sea for Ethiopia?

     

  21. Posted

    12 hours ago, Arafaat said:

    Mr.Ilyria,

    It’s an excellent piece propositioning a rational and way forward based on recongnising defacto political state or status in Somaliland. The key actors or missing link here is SSC-Khaatuma, for their position is key to unraveling the overall acceptable directions of Somaliland(or the North). Approaches comparable who the Arusha agreement should be explored that have helped and played a key role for resolving the conflict between Sudan-South Sudan. 

    For now it seems both Somalia and Somaliland are ignoring the main causes of the dispute, with Somalia thinking that they focus should be on Ethiopia given the limited leverage Somaliland has. Whereas Somalilands thinking is that talks and resolving things with Somalia has no added value to Somaliland, and it’s only Ethiopia and int community that can offer it what it needs. Read  this piece below on Somalia’s strategy on the issue. Confirming Somalia’s currency strategy of diplomatically targetting Ethiopia, and thinking that Somaliland has no cards or leverage in the game. 

    I think both sides thinking is wrong, for they are not looking at the key causes and effects and neither portrays the political realities on the ground correctly. 
     

    https://hiiraan.com/op4/2024/feb/194892/mou_itoobiya_somaliland_vs_somalia….aspx

    In a nutshell, we have got shifting regional balance:
        a) Somali Republic is slowly rising from the ashes, albeit
            i) SL is losing its footing with more than 60% of its claimed territories out of its control,
        b) Ethiopia is disintegrating with its three major States (Tigray almost destroyed, Amhara on fire, and Oromo on the brink) in conflict with the Federal government.

    Said shift is vexing respective leaders, which gives way to their being unhinged, and thereby destabilising the entire region.

  25. Posted

    On 3/3/2024 at 5:58 PM, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Yusuuf gaboobe is ,,, He indrectly works for the SL government

    Indirectly, eh? Mukhaabarat?

    21 hours ago, Arafaat said:

    Xaaji, focus on the news, Is it true that MP Mahamed Khadar is beaten up and arrested by your the regime. 

    XX: Could you attempt an answer ?

    1 hour ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    The deal is not yet finalised there are still talks about the deal the details the finer details qodooba baddan baan wali laga heshiin, so when these talks are finished  the aqoonsi and the exchange for the naval willl happen the same time same day 

    but we are not there yet it will take at least a nother 2 or 3 months untill there is  a final agreement atleast that is what i am hearing from my sources

    What do your sources thinks about the Naval vs port? Ethiopia says it is a port and a naval base. What do your adeeradaa think?