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Are Ahmed Siilaany and company planing to postpone the election?

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In the spring of 2017, people in Somalialnd are anxiously waiting the Elections for the parliament and the president. The election for the parliament has been already postponed twice. The last parliamentary election took place in 2005, some eleven years ago. As usual, nothing is done until the last minute , and then it is pushed back to unknown date. In the next spring election, both of these elections are supposed to take place at the same time.


According to insiders , Siilaanyo and company are pushing for two more years of extensions , but, will eventually settle for one more year and will hold the election in April of 2018. When members of the media inquired about the extension, Ahmed Siilaanyo's spokesman rejected the idea as a rumor from the media. Rather than push the extension plan from their office, Siilaanyo and company are hiding behind the do nothing parliament who want to push the election as far as possible. Members of the " Golaha Wakiilada" as they are called , are demanding that the two elections should take place in a different date, preferring theirs to be first.


I do not know why they want to held their own election ahead of the presidential one, but few theories come to mind.


First , by holding both at same time , those who are seeking the highest office in Somalialnd , will concentrate more on their own election than individual candidates who may or may not be in their camp in the future. Secondly, money and campaign resource are limited and each group want to use each others man power exclusively. Finally, the members want to win under Siilaanyo's leadership and have independent choice before the election. Anyway, there could more reasons than we could imagine.


Despite their personal reasons and plans, the " Golaha Wakiilada" never will or never had any backbone to affect any change in Somaliland. From time to time , they may agitate to get some attention, but they do not legislate or regulate. They are sitting ducks who collect their salaries . Since they are sheep pushed around by the herders at the Siilaanyo headquarters, we should all assume that it is not their idea to postpone the elections. So, why now and who ? , what are Siilaanyo and company are planing.


According those who participated the last Istanbul Conference, Siilaany is planing the next face of Somalia negotiations. The last conference was different from the previous ones , and participants were from the civil society who did not had mandate to to conclude any final deals, but had open forum to find the best possible way to achieve some form of union. After contentious debate , they all agreed to keep this kind of talks. Also, in order to accommodate the hardliners and stake holders , participants encouraged the invitations to former SNM members, regional members and even Khaatumo supporters.


Since then, a lot has changed in the region. There is constant conflict in the eastern regions of Sool both from within and without that community. Tensions from the Ethiopian occupied Zone five and Somalilnd border communities. Somaliland leaders should know that the world is not static, and what worked in the last century might not be possible now. According to Somaliland sources, Siilaanyo is preparing a government of national unity to face both the Somali issue and the regional problems.


As soon as he secures the extension to April 2018, he will form a unified cabinet ( Dawlad Lagu midaysan Yahay)that will include both familiar and new faces. That cabinet will have more powers than those we have seen for the last few years. I am not sure if they will conclude the eventual union, but they will have an agenda to rule many years to come. Among those who will join this new government of Siilaanyo are:


Ahmed Ismail Samatar

Cawil Cali Ducaale

Faysal Cali Waraabe

Boobe Yuusuf Ducaale

Mohamuud C/laahi Sifir

Samsam Cabdi Aadan

Baashe Mohamed Farah

Hassan Ciise Jama


and some more... In other words, this team will be constructed in a way to confront the agitators .


You may ask what about the opposition and the Kulmiye guys who waiting to replace Siilaanyo?,


The opposition will agitate as usual, although this kind of constant postponing of the election will eventually favor the opposition because, by the time the extension is over , this government would have been in power for eight years. For Muuse Biixi and those waiting in the wings, it will be a very difficult dilemma. If he fights Siilaanyo and company , he may lose both the financial purse and the support of the government, on the other hand if accepts another extension for Siilaanyo and company , that would be another two years of long campaigning . We shall see.


For some , postponing the elections means avoiding chaos. Since no news is good news, they will prefer Siilaanyo to stay put for few more years.


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Democracy in Somaliland is Hampered by the Three party system. One is the government Another is faysal's property and there is other party that I really don't know what it is.


I never thought I would say this, but there is no harm in postponing the election this year or the next, as any election in the near future will just give Kulmiye a considerable majority. therefore, instead of spending millions and political division, we simply need the time to create an effective opposition!!! if that is possible in the climate of Xil-ku-laaluush.

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Democracy in the way Somaliland is attempting to do it is doomed to failure. You can't have a multiparty system if the difference between is not ideological but just a mask to a clan congregation. Somaliland would be better off going back to their old traditions and electing a council that is representative of the people, and to let those council members choose the best qualified to run things.


Western democracy is not a panacea to the ills of Somaliland and can't mask the problems they are facing.

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