BREAKING NEWS: ONLF and Ethiopia are very close to sign an agreement

[The Zack]

Unless you are re-writing the history we all know it was NOT Shabaab who kicked Wayanes out of Somalia. Shacabka Soomaaliyeed did it. Shacabka Soomaaliyeed aren't with Shabaab any more, let's see what the Takfiiri organization can do this time specially when they are vacating Buulo Burde when only Beledweyne is under attack. There goes their Mujaahidnimo. They commit suicide to kill 40 innocent students yet they are afraid to die while fighting against the Xabashis.

 

As for Zenawi asking us to cross the border, we, not him, are in the driver's seat. We don't take orders from Zenawi, he takes orders from us. Zenway, ya Che, is weak today. He is agreeing to every single pre-condition the ONLF put forth. Haka cabsan ninka.

 

VIVA ONLF

[Che -Guevara]

^Don't too excited!

 

He might have something alot of job openings soon:-)

[Abtigiis]

I totally, totally disgaree with brother the Zack's assessment of the situation on this. I don't think Meles is approaching this issue from the point of weakness. There is even new school of thought emerging as to whether he actually wants to talk or it was a ploy. Anyway, the chance of any agreement between Meles and ONLF is exteremely low. Caution, dear the Zack.

 

The good thing is that the ONLF grassroot and fighters are given a direction through the Finland declaration, where it was reiterated that it is basically business as usual as far the struggle is concerned.

[The Zack]

Abtigiis, if it aint weakness what is it? What is driving Meles's request to talk to the ONLF. The ONLF haven't changed their pre-conditions for any talks, Meles did. Why? Mise you don't even agree that Meles asked to talk to the ONLF and possibly meet most of their requirements.

[Abtigiis]

The Zack,

 

He did ask. He wrote official letter to kenya. There is no dispute there.

 

What he agreed to doesn't amount to much. basically, he says if ONLF wants to talk to me in the presence of a third-country (maybe Kenya in his calculation), fine! Maybe he thought that is a small precondition that he can meet. He hasn't yet granted (from what I know) the full engagement of regional, and international institutions such as the AU, IGAD, UN etc.

 

Second, the ONLF guys are making lots of assumptions as to why this offer came now. We have warned them against believing it is because Meles feels weak. It is a possibility but it is very improbable. The ONLF is not taking towns militarily, division among the O community has been increasing in the last couple of years, and the Ethiopian economy is doing well. He has largely managed to keep the war between the Liyu Police and the ONLF. So, why would he feel so desperate?

 

If you ask me, Meles has been told that the ONLF is weak and that offering a new exit-door for its leadership will at least make some of the leadership jump ship. That is my conclusion, which is not shared by many. But then call it self-praising, but I do not put my analysis of the Ethiopian politics second to any ONLF leader including the Admiral. Because I don't base my analysis on gut feeling and conjecture but on reliable information I receive from many sources.

 

Meles's main motivation is because he wants to end the international bad name he is getting because of the confilct in the region, to be able to immeditaely access the gas resources in the region, and to be able to fully concentrate on Amharas and Oromos (whose opposition is increaing by the day). All these are pressures, but it doesn't make him desperate just yet!! The TPLF has been in more tighter political situations in the past and they certainly think this episode isn't worse than what they faced in 2005 elections, or when their leadership broke up into two.

 

Anyway, we will see how it goes.

[xiinfaniin]

Great analysis from the Professor .

 

Still ONLF should pursue peace and cessation of violence with Ethiopia