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Egyptian pound hits near 6 year low, government offers 15 billion pounds in T-bills

 

CAIRO - The Egyptian pound hit its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in roughly six years on Monday, while the government looked to raise cash with a $2.5 billion Treasury bill auction as investors assessed the impact on the economy of nearly two weeks of protests calling for the president's ouster.

The dollar was trading at about 5.953 Egyptian pounds by midday — its lowest level since January 2005. Analysts said the testing point would likely be at the range of 6 or 6.1 pounds.

The government, meanwhile, was to auction 15 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) in Treasury bills on Monday, a step that economists expected would draw in mostly domestic banks after the protests of the past couple of weeks appeared likely to cast an at least short-term pall on the investment climate in the country.

"For confidence purposes, (the bills) will be subscribed, and the local banks will provide most of the buying, if not all of the buying," said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi. Yield will also be attractive for the those who subscribe at 11-12 percent, he said.

"International banks will take a wait-and-see approach," said Sfakianakis.

For the government, the auction was a necessary confidence-building measure amid worries about capital outflows and a sharp drop in foreign investment. The government offered 8 billion pounds of 91-day bills, 5 billion pounds in 182-day bills and 2 billion in 273-day bills.

Local banks have "enough capacity to take up the issue, and I don't think the Central Bank would take up an issue of this size if they weren't confident it would be successful," said Ahmad Alanani, director of Mideast fixed income sales at Exotix Ltd. in Dubai.

"A successful auction of this size taken up by local banks would send all the right signals that the Egyptian debt markets are back in business," he said.

The protests, which saw tens of thousands of people massing in downtown Cairo for demonstrations that at times turned violent, have raised questions about the impact on the economy. More than 160,000 foreign tourists fled the country in a matter of days last week, in an exodus sure to hammer the vital tourism sector.

Meanwhile, banks reopened on Sunday after a weeklong closure and the government pumped 5 billion into the institutions to ensure liquidity. Millions had been unable to withdraw money for much of the duration of the protests, while businesses had been unable to pay their employees.

The depreciation in the Egyptian pound offered an ominous indication of the challenges ahead.

Analysts have predicted it could drop as much as 25 percent in the short-term, a level which would put it at weaker than 7 pounds to the dollar. It had traded much of last week, while banks were closed, at about 5.84 pounds to the dollar.

"The testing ground is 6 or 6.1 pounds (to the dollar)," said Sfakianakis. "That's where it could go further down, depending on the level of intervention by the Central Bank."

Central Bank officials could not be reached for comment.

International ratings agency Moody's Investors Service said it expects pressure on the Egyptian pound's exchange rate because of the conversion of local currency deposits to foreign currency deposits as the banks reopen.

"The flow will mainly come from foreign investors and high net-worth local depositors, and is likely to diminish the (Central Bank's) foreign currency reserves its capacity to support the banking system's overall foreign currency obligations," Moody's said in a report released Monday.

"Sustained demand to either withdraw or convert deposits into foreign currency is a key heightened risk for Egyptian banks' liquidity positions," Moody's said.

The Central Bank had $36 billion in foreign currency reserves as of the end of December.

Officials, who are still bracing for more potential fallout from the crisis, have kept the country's stock exchange closed.

The Egyptian Exchange's benchmark index shed 17 percent in two days of trading the week before last before it closed on Jan. 27. Trading may resume on Wednesday, with officials weighing placing limits either in terms of the hours or a cap on loss.

 

http://www.startribune.com/business/115466964.html

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Officials, who are still bracing for more potential fallout from the crisis, have kept the country's stock exchange closed.

The Egyptian Exchange's benchmark index shed 17 percent in two days of trading the week before last before it closed on Jan. 27. Trading may resume on Wednesday, with officials weighing placing limits either in terms of the hours or a cap on loss.

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If I had any money to invest, I wouldn't put it in any stock market. Not only do u have to worry about all the usual risks, u now have to worry about Hackers. Just save ur money, and keep it wit u.

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Showqi   

Egypt's Central Bank launches its second T-bill auction as government looks to boost cash

 

 

CAIRO - Egypt's Central Bank on Thursday launched an auction for 3.5 billion Egyptian pounds in Treasury bills, its second such offering in days as the government scrambles to raise money and offset the economic losses of more than two weeks of anti-government protests.

The roughly $595 million offering of six months bills is the second of three planned auctions to be held in under a week. The sales come as the government looks to raise money after promising a 15 per cent pay and pension increase to its civil service employees and retirees, while also trying to mitigate what many economists and analysts expect to be a sharp blow to the economy because of the protests.

"The auction is going to draw in local banks," predicted Mohsen Adel, chief executive of the Cairo-based Pioneer Funds. "I don't think international investors will make an appearance at present."

A 13 billion pound T-bill auction on Monday was heavily oversubscribed and saw higher yields of about 11 per cent for three-month bills. Six and nine-month bills averaged 11.48 and 11.65 per cent, respectively.

But that auction also drew in only local banks as international investors warily eyed the unrest that has plunged a nation once viewed as a pillar of stability in the region plunge into political turmoil and lawlessness largely unseen during President Hosni Mubarak's nearly 30 years in power.

The protests and ensuing violence have prompted an exodus of tourists, offering a window into the potential beating the vital tourism sector will take in the months to come. Businesses were shuttered for at least a week, as were banks before they reopened on Sunday.

"There will be an impact on the broader economy, no doubt about that," said Wael Ziada, head of Egypt research at the Cairo-based investment bank EFG-Hermes.

While declining to provide a specific estimate of the economic losses the country could face, Ziada said that "what's very obvious is that if we don't have a stable country by June, the impact will be serious."

The latest Treasury auction was to be followed by a Feb. 13 offering of 3 billion pounds in bills, and analysts and brokers predicted that the yields may climb by about a quarter to one-half of a percentage point as the central bank tries to control financing costs considering the government's obligations going forward and the expected dearth in foreign investment because of the unrest.

The expected hit to the economy and the growing political uncertainty had helped bring the Egyptian pound to its lowest level against the dollar in about six year, prompting the Central Bank to step in on Tuesday and stabilize the currency.

But the pound nudged lower on Thursday, trading at 5.8840 to the U.S. dollar after closing a day earlier at 5.8775 to the dollar. Central Bank officials have said they are ready to step in again, as needed, to support the currency — even as some analysts predicted a 20 to 25 per cent devaluation of the pound in the short-run.

The demonstrations that encompassed broad swaths of Egyptians population have now expanded to include workers as thousands strike across the nation demanding better pay. Their introduction into the protest mix offers a reintroduction of the same grievances about pay and the cost of living that served as the rallying cry for smaller scale protests last summer.

Against that backdrop, the Egyptian Exchange is slated to reopen on Sunday after a more than two-week closure. Its relaunch is widely expected to result in a broad sell-off, particularly in sectors either linked to the state, the currency or where foreign investment has been particularly active.

"The market is going to decline," said Ziada, adding that the "delay in its opening has helped."

Exchange officials have enacted some measures aimed at halting the anticipated decline. A 5 per cent change in the broader EGX100 index, for example, result in trading being halted for 30 minutes while a 10 per cent shift would halt trade for a period to be determined by the bourse's head. Existing caps on fluctuations in company shares also remain in place.

Even so, "there is no doubt that there is some pressure, and it's been building up ever since the market has been closed," said Ziada.

Ziada and other analysts downplayed the likelihood of a crash in the market, but noted that general unease will likely translate into heavy selling at the start that could carry over into the second half of the week.

"For local investors, who are perhaps more sanguine about the political developments, it becomes a buying opportunity" after the sell-off, said David Cowan, Africa economist with Citigroup in London.

 

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Egypt stock market moderately higher as former President Mubarak and his sons are detained

 

 

CAIRO — Egypt’s benchmark stock index rallied moderately on Wednesday, gaining as investors hoped that the detention of former President Hosni Mubarak and his two sons may allay growing frustrations with the pace of reforms and accountability in the country.

 

The Egyptian Exchange’s EGX30 index was up slightly over 1.1 percent by 12:30 p.m. Cairo time on Wednesday, recouping some of the 1.4 percent decline recorded in the previous day’s session.

 

“People are anticipating that there will be less protests and more stability,” said Mostafa Abdel-Aziz, a senior broker with Mideast investment bank Beltone Financial’s trading arm. “The hope is that this news will satisfy more of the protesters.” Mubarak’s detention for 15 days, pending inquiries into accusations of corruption, abuse of authority and the killings of protesters during the uprising that ousted him from power was announced early Wednesday by the country’s prosecutor general.

Another announcement said that his two sons, Alaa and Gamal, were also detained pending investigations and were transferred Wednesday to Cairo’s notorious Torah prison. Gamal was a key figure in the National Democratic Party that governed under Mubarak. The reaction was positive,” said Abdel-Aziz, referring to the market’s view of the news. He said that turnover was “relatively higher” than last week.

 

Many have grown increasingly frustrated by the pace of investigations into former regime officials and their associates, claiming that the country’s new military rulers were shying away from pursuing their former boss and were instead trying to offer up former government ministers as sacrificial lambs and placebos before an irate nation of 80 million.

The protests, coupled with the general sense of unease in the country, a security vacuum amid the absence of the police on the streets and continued unrest political and labor unrest have hammered the economy.

The detention of Mubarak, who had been placed under house arrest in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, appeared to offer one of the first concrete signals that the ousted president may be held accountable for at least some of the abuses attributed by Egyptians to him and his family. Mubarak was being held in hospital after suffering heart problems on Tuesday.

 

The 82-year-old leader and his sons are widely believed by the majority of Egyptians as having abused their positions, allowing NDP supporters and key business leaders to build up massive wealth through sweetheart deals to which they were afforded cuts.

 

The Egyptian Exchange, which was shuttered for roughly two months since the mass unrest that eventually toppled Mubarak began on Jan. 25, has fared better than many expected since its relaunch late last month. Its year-to-date losses, however, remain at around 26 percent. More broadly, however, the Egyptian economy has taken a beating, with the popular protests mushrooming into broad labor unrest that had largely paralyzed the manufacturing sector. Exports were hit hard, while other key sources of foreign revenue such as tourism and foreign investments, are projected to fall far short of expectations. The country’s investment chief said last week that projected FDI for the fiscal year was about $4 billion, down slightly more than 40 percent from earlier forecasts.

Officials have cut their projections for the country’s economic growth to between 2.5 percent to 3 percent for the current fiscal year ending June 30. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund, in a report released earlier this week, projected that Egypt’s GDP could grow by about 1 percent in calendar year 2011.

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

 

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/egypt_stock_market_moderately_higher_as_former_president_mubarak_and_his_sons_are_detained/2011/04/13/AFsRHwUD_story.html?wprss=rss_congress

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Taleexi   

The worst form of saving money waa in barkin hoosteed la geliyo. Time Value of Money ka sakow.......investing is the best way forward be it may real estate or whatever..

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Analysis: Worries on debt ceiling bubble beneath surface

 

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the standoff over raising the government's borrowing limit enters its final month, it's becoming harder for investors to avoid thinking the unthinkable: the world's most trusted borrower could soon renege on its debt.

 

The U.S. Treasury says it will be forced to default on its obligations if Congress does not raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, which caps how much it can borrow, by August 2.

 

The Treasury has not specified which bills it wouldn't pay, but the prospect of its missing interest or principal payments on any outstanding debt is a terrifying one for Wall Street.

 

Even a temporary default would erode the United States' status as the world's most powerful economy and the dollar's role as the dominant global currency.

 

"It would be catastrophically bad to tell the world that the United States is willing to default on its obligations," said Gregory Whiteley, who helps manage $12 billion in assets at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles. "Even if the default only lasted a few days, the precedent would be set."

 

A default would undermine confidence in Treasuries, the world's safest asset and the benchmark for the global bond market, particularly if ratings agencies were to cut the United States' prized AAA credit rating.

 

If investors start demanding higher returns for holding riskier U.S. debt, the rise in bond yields would crank up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This in turn could tip a still fragile economy back into recession.

 

QUANTIFYING THE UNTHINKABLE

 

Republicans in Congress want the White House to commit to deep spending cuts before lifting the ceiling while Democrats favor adding tax increases on the wealthy. Talks collapsed two weeks ago, and compromise seems far off.

 

Even so, investors are not panicking. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yielded 3.09 percent on Wednesday. While above its 2011 low of 2.84 percent hit last week, that was still far below where it would be if markets felt default was imminent.

 

"I don't think the majority of Congress is so ****** as to visit an actual default on the United States," said David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "Their constituents would never forgive them for playing fast and loose with the credit-worthiness that it took 230 years to build up."

 

But as the deadline nears, markets may grow more restive.

 

Standard and Poor's told Reuters last week it would waste no time cutting the top-notch U.S. credit rating if Treasury missed a $30 billion debt payment on August 4.

 

Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income, with $240 billion in assets, said long-term interest rates could swiftly rise by up to 50 basis points.

 

Based on the projected budget deficit, that amounts to an extra $70 billion in interest costs -- a fairly hefty price to pay for a country already facing a large debt burden.

 

Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics, reckons a default could be a lot more costly, knocking Treasury prices down 5 to 10 points in a day -- a violent and unusual move. "This could be a horror show."

 

DOLLAR AT RISK?

 

The turmoil would likely spread far beyond the bond market as Treasuries are the one asset invariably accepted worldwide as collateral. A downgrade could result in margin calls, unleashing a wave of selling in stock and other markets.

 

In a note to clients this week, Priya Misra, head of U.S. rates research at BofA-Merrill Lynch, suggested owning some S&P 500 "puts" in case the debt ceiling is not raised by August 2.

 

The dollar would be vulnerable, too. As the global reserve currency, it dominates world trade and is the one in which central banks store most of their savings.

 

But if the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government comes under question, that would plant "a seed of doubt" for global investors, said Barclays chief currency strategist Jeffrey Young, and could erode the dollar's unique status.

 

Foreigners hold more than half of outstanding dollar-denominated U.S. government debt. China alone holds more than $1 trillion, according to Treasury data.

 

Even if Treasury were to make good eventually on missed payments, "there's no way to guarantee to foreign investors that the dollar, having sold off on a debt ceiling breach, will go back to where it was once things are resolved," said Steven Englander, who heads G10 FX strategy at Citigroup.

 

The short-term impact would likely boost the yen and Swiss franc, already up 10 percent against the dollar this year, short-circuiting a typical safe-haven bid for the greenback.

 

In the longer run, it could boost the euro.

 

"There have been plenty of warnings from around the world, notably China, that the United States is playing with fire," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director of Faros Trading.

 

"They wouldn't be able to dump $1 trillion in Treasuries overnight, but over time, they will probably prefer to hold European debt, given the Europeans look like they're willing to deal with deficit issues, while the United States does not."

 

PAINFUL BUT NOT A CATASTROPHE

 

Some contend failure to lift the debt ceiling need not end in catastrophe. Whiteley said Treasury tax revenues are sufficient to cover immediate interest and principal payments.

 

"But if you tell retirees we're not sending social security checks this month but we will be paying our Chinese debt holders, that makes for an uncomfortable situation," he said.

 

A few Republicans have even said a "technical" default that involves missing a few payments is manageable.

 

There's room for debate there. In 1979, Treasury was late in redeeming more than $100 billion of Treasury bills but that episode did not have a lasting effect on U.S. credibility.

 

However, that incident was the result of a freak printing problem, according to Richard Marcus, a finance professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee who later co-wrote a paper on the episode. Marcus' research did find it resulted in a 60-basis point interest rate premium on T-bills.

 

"People knew it was temporary, and I think that does make a difference," he said. "So it depends on how protracted it is. But I think it is a bad idea to miss payments, whether you are a homeowner, a company or a government."

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Analysis-Worries-on-debt-rb-3407364691.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

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nuune   

Soomaaliya:

 

 

Qiimaha Sarifka Lacagaha Qalaad iyo Sicirka Raashinka

 

 

Markanna Heerka Qabashada:-

 

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Markanna Heerka Bixinta:-

100-Dollar waxaa lagu bixinayay 32800,000 Sh.So

100-Riyaal waxaa lagu bixinayay 810,000 Sh.So

100-Dirham waxaa lagu bixinayay 820,000 Sh.So

 

 

Sicirka Suuqa

 

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Showqi   

Loooooooooooool@Nuune

Listkaaga Baasto iyo Cabitaan aa ka buuxo (Baasto = Lix goor, Cabitaanku isaguna waa lix goor):D

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Greek bond buybacks on table in latest bank talks

 

 

ROME, July 7 - International banks, under pressure from European governments to help with another Greek bailout, discussed buying back the country's bonds in another attempt to stitch together a rescue plan after a French initiative failed.

 

 

European Central Bank and Greek government officials as well as international and Italian banking executives met lobby group the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Rome on Thursday, an Italian Treasury source said. Another source close to the discussions said Deutsche Bank took part.

 

 

The banks are struggling to strike a deal which would let private sector creditors provide cash and breathing space to Greek debtors without being defined as a default by credit ratings agencies -- which have warned they are watching closely.

 

 

The IIF said the group had discussed "debt buy-back approaches," but did not elaborate.

 

 

In an emailed statement it said attendees had tried "to refine the options that were discussed in the IIF's Board statement of last Friday."

 

 

That statement referred to possible debt buyback proposals, which could, along with further Greek fiscal adjustment, begin to reduce and therefore help service the country's debt.

 

 

But the banks remain split on how best to construct the aid. Thursday's meeting followed a similar one organized by the IIF in Paris Wednesday at which "a menu of options" was discussed, according to Charles Dallara, the managing director of the bank lobby group.

 

 

A French proposal for a rollover in which bondholders would reinvest at least 70 percent of the proceeds from bonds maturing before the end of 2014 in new 30-year Greek debt has run into ratings agency objections.

 

 

Officials are now looking at a broader range of options.

 

 

The Treasury source confirmed that the meeting had broken up around midday GMT.

 

 

The source said earlier that there would be an exchange of views on "developments so far and the solutions currently on the table for the involvement of private creditors."

 

 

The meeting was chaired by Vittorio Grilli, director general of the Italian Treasury, in his capacity as chairman of the European Union Economic and Financial Committee.

 

 

An EU source also confirmed the meeting in Rome and said EU representatives would be attending. However no representative from any of the ratings agencies was expected to be present.

 

Following the effective veto on the French plan by ratings agency Standard and Poor's, which said it would consider the operation contained in the proposal as a selective default, the search has widened for an alternative plan.

 

Germany has raised other possibilities including getting banks holding Greek bonds to swap them for new bonds with longer maturities but that proposal has not found favor with banks and some other European governments.

 

 

German Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen said the idea of a bond exchange could be put back on the table, with talks likely to take place over the summer.

 

 

Thursday, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager was quoted by the daily Het Financieele Dagblad as saying that private sector banks must be pressured into taking part in a bailout as a voluntary deal was not realistic.

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Showqi   

Thursday, Dutch Finance Ministir Jan Kees de Jager was quoted by the daily Het Financieele Dagblad as saying that private sector banks must be pressured into taking part in a bailout as a voluntary deal was not realistic.

The government got no money so they are forcing the financial sector to fix this mess. I smell short selling.

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Moody's warns it may downgrade US credit rating

 

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday threatened to lower the United States' credit rating, saying there is a small but rising risk that the government will default on its debt.

 

The credit rating agency said it will review the federal government's triple-A bond rating because the White House and Congress are running out of time to raise the nation's $14.3 trillion borrowing limit and avoid a default. The government reached its borrowing limit in May. Treasury says the government will default on its debt if the limit is not raised by Aug. 2.

 

A downgrade would raise interest rates on U.S. treasury bonds, increasing the interest paid by U.S. taxpayers. It would also push up rates for mortgages, car loans and other debts, which are linked to Treasury rates. Moody's had warned in June that it would take this step if President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers failed to make progress on an agreement by mid-July. The other credit ratings agencies, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, have said they may make similar moves.

 

Some Republican lawmakers have expressed skepticism that failing to raise the limit would have a major impact. But Moody's provided a stark assessment: "An actual default, regardless of duration, would fundamentally alter Moody's assessment of the timeliness of future payments."

 

In short, that means the U.S. would lose its top rating, the agency said. Because a default would likely be short-lived, Moody's said it would likely downgrade U.S. debt to double-A. That is the second-highest of nine rankings under Moody's system. And Moody's warned that the U.S. wouldn't regain its triple-A rating right away if lawmakers raised the borrowing limit after a short-lived default. The agency said it would leave the rating unchanged for the "near term," although it didn't say how long that would be.

 

Moody's has never given the U.S. government anything lower than its top rating since it began evaluating the country's debt in 1917. Moody's acknowledged that fights over the borrowing limit have been contentious before. But it said bond interest and principal have always been paid on time. The nation would likely retain its triple-A rating if the limit is raised before a default. But Moody's said it could assign a negative outlook on U.S. debt if lawmakers and the president fail to make major progress on a long-term plan to reduce the federal deficit.

 

Jeffrey A. Goldstein, a Treasury Department official, said the announcement is a "timely reminder of the need for Congress to move quickly ... and agree upon a substantial deficit reduction package." But talks between the Obama administration and Republican leaders in Congress are at a standstill. Republicans are insisting on deep spending cuts as a condition of voting to raise the limit. Democrats want to include tax increases to help close the budget gap, a move Republicans adamantly oppose.

 

Obama and GOP lawmakers met for a fourth straight day Wednesday. Obama has said the daily meetings will continue until a deal is reached. The stalemate prompted the top Republican in the Senate to propose giving Obama sweeping new powers to increase the limit to avoid default. Other Republicans criticized the idea.

 

"We need to get hit over the head to do the right thing," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Budget, a bipartisan group of experts and former members of Congress that study budget policy issues. "It's terrible it's gotten this far but it's necessary," she added, referring to Moody's review.

Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, which advocates for deficit reduction, said the warnings from the ratings agencies reflect concerns about U.S. politics, rather than its ability to handle large debts.

 

"Right now we've got these dysfunctional debt limit talks," Bixby said. "It's not surprising that an agency like Moody's would weigh in and say, `Hey guys, this is the real world.'"

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ElPunto   

^It never will. Moody's has too much at stake to not make nice with the US govt. Besides - they will get the debt ceiling thing resolved one way or another unless the rightwing nutty Republicans have lost all sense completely.

 

I'm not sure why the Business section was terminated a while back while the Jokes section which almost nobody goes into is still around. Odd.

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