Fabregas Posted March 21, 2008 Saxiib, the US admin has been fighting these groups( directally and indirectally) for a long time now....... They were already declared as terrorists.and treated as such...So the effect already occured many moons ago, when the Americans were bombing the daylights out of Alshabaab...This latest declaration will probably have more of an impact on those that possibly fund Alshabaab from abroad.... There are plenty of weapons inside Somalia ..........I highly doubt that it will dramatically change the political landscape...... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted March 21, 2008 ^^^Adeer again you highlight your lack of understanding of the issue. It will change the map because the opposition will not be able to negotiate and continue to fight. The likes of Abdiqasin who is clearly frustrated, Xasan dahir and Sharif Ahmed will not be able to embrace the Al-Kebaab's murders while wanting to be taken seriously by the international community. They are no longer part of the political landscape Its a clear setback, their dies hard supporters and their fundraisers abroad specially in the west will have a very tight rope to walk from now on. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fabregas Posted March 21, 2008 Saxiib...... there are plenty of weapons, money and recruits in Somalia, which could keep the conflict going for another twenty years.....regardless of whether or not the Americans put group X and B on the terror list...... There are plenty of other organisations included on this list..whom continue to function......Yes a whole load of people could possibly be accused of funding an outlawed group.? Xawalas could also come under more intense scrutiny....... apart from that, how else will this change the dynamics of the conflict in Somalia?......Remembe Alshabaab( the wing led by Abu Mansur) doesn't have any offices or groups located outside of Somalia! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted March 21, 2008 ^^^Adeer this conflict will not last that long, one the Somali people are tired of war, a central authority with teeth will change the balance. Most weapons left in the hands of the clowns are low grade, individual arms. Thus they can not fight a mechanised army. The TFG is trying to create one. The dynamics in Somalia is not the same as other nations, some nations have no choice but to fight, Somalia is missing a strong ordered central government, hence the more established the governemnt becomes the less need there is for armed conflict of this kind. Over time even those dies hard clan supporters of the Shebaab will come to terms that their best interest is served by having a passport, national institutions, jobs and being part of the world. Those who seek adventure and isolation will get it in jail and being in the bushes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Resistance Posted March 21, 2008 The fact remains those in oppisition have a ligimate reason to carry arms and fight at this point in time, untill that reason is removed the fghting will continue. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Xoogsade Posted March 21, 2008 Al-shabaab is only part of a larger opposition which the US itself acknowledges to exist. The announcement will have no effect on the insurgents and opposition groups in Somalia. The only impact this announcement so far has is to deny the TFG a chance to survive and become legitimate where it needs to assert control over. The announcement definitely prolongs the conflict. The only opportunity left for a lasting resolution is for the Xabashi troops to withdraw, Un troops to come in, reasonable changes in the TFG to occur and a new page to start. If that becomes a possibility, armed opposition will be easily denied their local support and they will be forced to retreat, lay down their weapons or go back to their separate existence like before. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
