Where are the heavyweights?

[N.O.R.F]

Its getting tiring sparring with featherweights. Where are the heavyweights of the SOL bolitikal section? Silence is not golden and an I’m busy excuse will not suffice.

 

So come out and make some comments. You cannot simply stay quiet on this.

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^Brother, do you mean the neutralists, or the intellectuals like xiin and Xoogsade?

 

 

At least I am doing my jihaad against the dabo-dhilif and their allies.

 

Isoo wac hadeey wax jiraan, inta ka horeysa waxaan hayaa howl culus, ee sidaas ula soco!

 

thursdy, Insha-Allah, the mother of all wars will take place in Mogadishu.

[Xoogsade]

Notherner, Assuming you are referring to the neutrals like Bashi, They are waiting for a favourable circumstance to thier political views. If there is a ceasefire for example and it holds, A/Y comes out of insignifance, makes the right comments(which he never does), and for some unexplainable reason all parties agree or seem to agree to sit and talk, that is when you will see the neutrals voice their opinion. For now, no one with conscience can come out to support what is going on. The TFG has disappointed. Anyone who supported that organization and who has some conscience left hides saxib.

[N.O.R.F]

I want to hear what awoow Baashi has to say about this weeks events. Sophist has been a little quiet aswell.

 

There is usually some substance and rationale in their writing hence why i want to hear their views.

[rudy-Diiriye]

well northern when ears go deaf, that means something caajib has happened? but actually, its lesson. u see, as humans we sometimes forget the reality and start living in dreams! like in hollywood.

 

icu did! they paid. tfg is paying for it now!! u just cant bossing around ppl no matter how many guns u got! many have tried by they all failed.

 

the solutions is always free and priceless!! all everybody needs ks repect!! dis-repecting will only give u headaches!!

 

do u see whats happening to lil bush these days!!

hes in fight for his life with Nancy!! the congressional house speaker!! lil cowboy is frighten by a liberal women from cali!!

 

go gal!!

[XOG-ogaal]

LOOOOOOOl Go gal

[AYOUB]

Norf

Why don't you cut the middleman and start a debate with house Ethios directly. I know SomaliFriend claims to be one, are there any others? What's cyber collaborator's opinion worth to you?

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^ waa runtaa, they worth nothing to anyone, indeed!

 

for ethiopia, we have war for them, and for the dabo-dhilifs, we have an eternal punishment for them!

[Baashi]

^There he goes...Caqli ma jiro...Ileyn doqoni deyr kama kacdee | Daamankeey meermeerisaa...Allah-U-Baahane Alla yahdiika awoowe. Over 400 hundred perished, many many more fled, the number of Ethios invaders has increased (not reduced), the so called IC in Cairo repeated the Ethio/TFG line and condemned the actions of "terorists"...yet the "elders" the so called freedom fighters had a meeting with the Ethios invaders thus giving them legitimacy in their Benadir policing...and guess what they want a ceasefire!!!! I don't get it wallahi.

 

On the other side of the coin waa xarash as I have anticipated, the TFG's short-sightedness and lack of strategy short of brutal force has been exposed. TFG's failure to achieve the two key milestones is a preview of what the future has in store for Somalis. It doesn't have the security it needs in order to manage the political transition it set out to manage nor does it have any deal on the much anticipated negotiated settlement central to Somalis hope for normalcy and peace.

 

The saddest thing of all is the fact that this TFG seems to lack the authority to make commitment on political deal without the consent of its sponsor. That's a deal breaker if you ask me.

 

This latest mayhem looks, walks, and even smells like a clannish power struggle over Benadir.

 

Northerner awoowe objectively speaking one must ask the question about the UIC involvement in all of this. If you can recall, UIC made the wise decision to pull its militia and leave benadir intact on the grounds that it doesn't want to expose the innocent civilians to the Ethios and TFG's onslought Many here welcomed the fact that there are folks who care about civilians death and instead swallow their pride and concede.

 

Superimpose that image over the latest casualties and subsequent meetings with Ethios invaders. Fadhi-ku-dirir tactics aside, what's the rationale of exposing the civilians now to an enemy that has the reach, the operational basis within the city limits, and the will to destroy what it thinks is the remnant of defeated militia? - militray advantages Ethios /TFG lacked back then! Why spare the civilians then and expose them now?

 

For TFG supporters the question is why take on one sub-clan, frustrate their political ambitions, deny Islamists a political party, and prolong Ethiopian's presence when making a deal with the same variables will give the TFG the security it needs and the opportunity to manage the transition until its mandate expires?

 

Call me names but they way I see it is: there is no way forward without a negotiated settlement and the only way you can have that is start talking. The Somali civil war is not a winnable contest. The zero-sum game does not work in Somali context. Winner takes all, as eveident in the TFG's thinking, is a blunder in the first order.

 

Advice to that particular sub-clan: demand a seat at the table and impose effective control over the file and rank of your militia. Don't take the helm of defending national interests of the country. Other Somalis are sitting out on this, why sacrifice your youth for a cause that 98% of the nation does not share with you?

 

Advice to Islamists...embrace the negotiated settlement proposal, use the IC gathering in cairo and issue statement via Sherif renouncing the use of violence as political tool to reach the party's political objectives. Demand more involvement of this group in the transition period. Declare UIC as a political party, name "moderates" as the exucative slate, and define its political platform and issue a document detailing how they think we should manage the country during the transition period as well as post-conlict era. They gotta undertsand how the game is played and play it like a pro. Khidca is allowed in times of war! Just do it!

 

Advice to TFG. Postpone the reconciliation gathering. Publish the milestone, if met, under which the Ethiopians should leave. Stop humiliating that certain sub-clan, and offer them a dignified deal they can't refuse, and have Jelle and Geddi cease issuing statements that's designed to frustrate the political ambitions of certain sub-clan and its leaders.

 

Come up with two track negotiation scheme. 1) Deal with sub-clans that lost confidence in this TFG as constituents that need reassurance and give them a reason to be part of the TFG...like give them very important portfolio. 2) Deal with Islamists as a political party with ideological agenda (different than TFG's political views) but nonetheless an agenda. Give them a seat at the table and a chance to contest elections stipulated in the Nairobi deal at the end of TFG's mandate.

 

Now this is a practical advice. It's doable. Each and every faction in this contest has an incentive in this. The civilians will have the normalcy they cherish. The TFG will have a chance to shape the direction the country is taking during the transition period. Islamists will have a chance to regroup and make a political comeback. The sub-clan that's targated by the TFG will have a chance to keep its tsanding within Benadir and even enhance it and take part the contest after the TFG's manadte expires.

 

There are responsibilities and obligations each faction have to meet. The peacekeeping troops will finally have a peace to keep and Somalis can use them by having them hold each faction to commitments it made during the reconciliation period.

 

Refuse this practical advice and you will have more wars to come. Somalia will be under the thump of Ethiopia and Ethiopia not Somalis will be the ones that shape the future of this country. Insurgency is empowering Ethiopia winning that country foreign support and making the regional power it wants to project.

 

Believe me all these power-hungry folks have their petty reason to seek Ethiopia's help. Negative tribalism is a force. By making a deal with them, you will relieve them from the need to seek Ethiopian protection.

 

Always embrace reconciliation effort...modify the terms when appropriate, change them when necessary but always welcome any talks that have something to do with ending Somali tragedy.

 

Ku durduriya...

[Kashafa]

One question that was unclear from your well-written well-reasoned post, Baashi. I'll come back with my take on it after I get that clarification:

 

Should there be any form of armed resistance to the Ethiopian guests currently occupying Somalia. If the answer is NO, please give us a timeframe for the duration of their stay. Is it an open-ended "they stay at the pleasure of the TFG" thing ? If it becomes clear that they are here for the long-term, should the Somali people "swallow their pride and concede" or form an armed resistance and expel the invaders and those who stand with them

 

Critical points that haven't been covered together with the biggest pink elephant in the room: the Ethiopian agenda.

[Baashi]

I have a meeting in about 4 minutes...but to answer your question quickly...no agreement means only one thing: continuation of the war.

[Qandalawi]

^^To help you more on this the problem lies within the Somalis, Ethio army were brought by Somalis and many Somalis have used their toys before as Melez used Somalia in the past. Therefore, the question is can u get all Somalis on board and make a deal, given that this happens, Ethio will leave willingly hadii kale Sandulle facing all Somali people fighting against them shoulder to shoulder.. hadii

[N.O.R.F]

Baashi, rageedi!

 

Some valuable points and recommendations,,,

[Paragon]

Advice to Islamists...embrace the negotiated settlement proposal, use the IC gathering in cairo and issue statement via Sherif renouncing the use of violence as political tool to reach the party's political objectives. Demand more involvement of this group in the transition period. Declare UIC as a political party, name "moderates" as the exucative slate, and define its political platform and issue a document detailing how they think we should manage the country during the transition period as well as post-conlict era. They gotta undertsand how the game is played and played it like a pro. Khidca is allowed in times of war! Just do it!

This is an advice? It is a call to surrender all hopes.

[Fabregas]

Neutral maxay odhanayaan? Ala is dhiibo ama calan cad hala taago?