Ten candidates from Mogadishu and area are competing against president Farmaajo.

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In 2004, close to a dozen men from Mogadishu, decided to campaign against one major  candidate, then president C/laahi Yusuf (AHN) in Nairobi. Before the election, I didn't realize the composition of candidates. After the conclusion of the first round , I was amazed how a close to dozen men from the same region including president C/qasin SAlaad Hassan couldn't agree to one , two or three candidates to go against , Cabdilaahi Yusuf, the man of the hour.

president C/qaasim Salaad, C/laahi, Ahmed Cadow, Huseen Aideed, MOhamed Qanyare (AHN)  Engeneer C/laahi Cadow (AHN), Muuse Suudi Yalahow and other had agreed to run against C/laahi Yusuf. The fragmented Mogadishu coalition each got a minority of  the vote and at the end made secret deals with the most serious candidate C/laahi Yusuf.

Now, in 2020,  I see the same pattern from the greedy Mogadishu politicians .The list is long:  Xasan Cali Kheyre,  former presidents Xasan Sheekh Maxamuud and  Shariif Sheekh Axmed,  Cabdiraxmaan Cabdishakuur, Cabduqaadir Cosoble Cali, Daahir Maxamuud Geelle, Musstaf Sheekh Cali Dhuxulow, Cabdikariin Xuseen Guuleed, Shariif Xasan Sheekh Aadan. I know some of them are just vying to get a position from the winning candidate or those they might consider to be the heavy weight candidate. Yet, it is very strange that even the lieutenants of certain candidates are running probably to boast their  boss. For example, Mustafe Dhuxulow, a lieutenant of Hassan Khayre and C/kariim Guuleed, a Hassan Sheikh man,  are probably running as surrogates of their bosses while pretending to be a candidate. 

This list looks exactly the one I saw 16 years ago. The only big deference is that this time around, they all are pretending to be friends and political allies. Non of them is willing to sacrifice his position for the team. Shariif Ahmed, the man who publicly proclaimed to be armed just in case the bullets fly,  is not willing to give up his candidacy to Hassan Sheikh. In 2012, all the 13 candidates agreed to join together and pick one candidate to face Shariif Ahmed. THey all agreed in the early stages of the campaign, but when the rubber hit the road, Hassan Sheikh refused and left the group after getting the badly needed cash from Qatar, thanks to Fahad Yaasiin, the current intelligence chief.

THere are four men from the Mogadishu (Unaka Iska Leh) group just like 2012. Yet, the idea to present a  crowded race to the public was intended to send indirect  messages to the larger Somali public, especially to the naive and gullible.  After the 2012 election, a good proff. who was helping one of the candidates told me that everyone among the members of the parliament agreed that this time around the president ought to be from Unaka. This conclusion was made mainly through fear and insecurity from those who hail outside the capital. 

That was the main reason four members from UNaka: Shariif Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh, C/laahi Cosoble and C/raxman Baadiyow were among the four of the six who got the largest vote among the candidates. While others were hiding for security reason, they were campaigning among the members in their own turf. That reason alone should have forced Somalils to hold the election in a secure city like Garoowe or Cadaado. Insecure Mogadishu is nothing but a political advantage for some. 

Now in 2020, I am hearing the same indirect messaging that promotes a similar outcome.

Madaxwrnaha markaan waxa iska leh Reer hebel.

THose of us who know better are not buying this propaganda from greedy Mogadishu boys. Few years ago, the only Somali group ready to challenge this false entitlement were the Puntlanders. This time around they are ridding comfortably in the wagon driven by Unaka waiting for the left overs. 

Last month C/laahi Deni showed his political skills and made a drive through in the Farmaajo political business hatched in Dhuusamareeb one and two. He along Ahmed Madoobe single handily dismantled what ever was cooked for months in central Somalia. He was feted in Mogadishu, yet there is no major candidate from Puntland. Everyone is waiting for the Unaka crown that may or might not replace Farmaajo.

If Farmaajo is skillful like late preisdent C/laahi Yusuf, he would tell each candidate something soothing  in their ears to sway  them in the second round of the vote. In 2004, both Qanyare, Huseen Caydiiid and others joined C/laahi Yusuf in the second round.

Despite my prediction, anything can happen between now and the election day. This year of 2020 is a very strange one with many surprises. Who would have thought Khayre and Ina C/shakuur to be political bed flows. If Judging by history is any guide, we might even get a new man with a white horse anointed by the gulf without the public notice.

My hope Farmaajo 2 Unaka 0.

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THe worst man in the list definitely is former prime minister Hassan C. Khayre.

This fool is willing to campaign what he himself created for four and half years. He has to beg for INa C/shakuur to forgive him. 

He is the worst example of Somali greed. He should have went to the sun set and come back after four years showing patience and honor.


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Kheyr and Abdishakur have no shot. Kheyr might have a shot if he actually worked on security and helped to materialize hal cod hal qof.

As for Unuka family, they will have a chance if they make good with Puntland and reer Southwest. The people of Mogadishu have tested what peace means again. Making threats might not work this time. People didn't appreciate what Cali Mahdi and Sharif said.

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