galbeedi

Jubbaland second parliament will move to the capital Bu'ale as soon as Al-shabaab is expelled from the town

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galbeedi   

As they say in the media, there is hot news in the wire regarding the Jubbaland elections.

I haven't  been following the news in the Jubba region lately, and the gerrymandering of the elders and delegates by Ahmed Madoobe seems to be guaranteeing his re-election. All indications point to that direction unless unforeseen events derail his plan. 

Yet, the formation of the second parliament could not only drail Madoobe plans but create a two competing administrations. The latest news from Villa-Somalia indicate that the Farmaajo government had put the eyes of the international community and the spotlight on Ahmed Madoobe and his moves to sideline the competition and other candidates. As we speak both the UN envoy James Swan, IGAd and Amisom see Madoobe as an obstacle to fair election. They didn't confront him openly yet, but his actions to obstruct other candidates were bared in the open for all to see. He keeps denying many requests from the international community.

Reports indicate that the government with help of Ethiopia will set up shop in Baardgere while the new tough Somali force "Danab" is geared to take over Bu'ale and make  government operation save inside the official capital of Jubbaland. It seems Farmaajo is dead set to dethrone Madoobe no matter what.

Also, since there is maritime dispute with Kenya, Somalia believes that Kenya has no business to occupy and stay within the Somali territory while waging both diplomatic and business wars in Somalia. The Farmaajo government had already written a letter to both the regional government and the UN for its desire for Kenya to leave Somalia. In my opinion, the next move could be a motion from the Somali parliament that demands the removal of the Kenyan soldiers from Somalia. If that is achieved, Kenya has no choice but to vacate the land or it will be designated as hostile power occupying Somalilands. And that kind of designations will allow Somalis to take up arms and fight the invading Kenyans.

As reports indicate, the Jubbaland issue is just starting . I have even heard a news from one prominent Ugaas saying that Farmaajo had swore to gamble his seat and make sure for the removal of Madoobe. If the federal government takes over Central JUbba and the capital Bu'ale  and Gedo, which is 2/3 of region,  they will be able to isolate Madoobe in Kismaayo while Al-shabaab is squeezed to Lower Jubba. 

The plan is to isolate Madoobe from the larger Jubbaland community and from the international community. Then another pressure will be applied to the Kenyan government.. 

In other words, Madoobe might be elected by those he hand picked , and win the short term battle, but might eventually lose the bigger war of controlling Jubbaland. 

 

 

 

 

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If Moodabe is re-elected that will be the end of the story for some time to come, until all the other forces can find a means of alliance, which is difficult to do at this time.

Farmaajo strategy becomes obvious at this point it involves Al Shabab in one way or another. Most likely not to affect Shabab or use them to plug some of the holes, in the plan.

 

 

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What is so sad about this whole thing is that, the D-Block are now either fighting from Ethiopian side or the Kenyan side. 

Xalku waa Uhuru Kenyatta and Abiye Ahmed inay wada hadlaan oo wax isku afgartaan. 

Galbeedi ". The Farmaajo government had already written a letter to both the regional government and the UN for its desire for Kenya to leave Somalia"

There is no such thing as gov't, Cheeseman is fighting for his clan and the IC will burn their hands if they support one clan over another clan. 

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Apophis   
13 hours ago, galbeedi said:

As they say in the media, there is hot news in the wire regarding the Jubbaland elections.

I haven't  been following the news in the Jubba region lately, and the gerrymandering of the elders and delegates by Ahmed Madoobe seems to be guaranteeing his re-election. All indications point to that direction unless unforeseen events derail his plan. 

Yet, the formation of the second parliament could not only drail Madoobe plans but create a two competing administrations. The latest news from Villa-Somalia indicate that the Farmaajo government had put the eyes of the international community and the spotlight on Ahmed Madoobe and his moves to sideline the competition and other candidates. As we speak both the UN envoy James Swan, IGAd and Amisom see Madoobe as an obstacle to fair election. They didn't confront him openly yet, but his actions to obstruct other candidates were bared in the open for all to see. He keeps denying many requests from the international community.

Reports indicate that the government with help of Ethiopia will set up shop in Baardgere while the new tough Somali force "Danab" is geared to take over Bu'ale and make  government operation save inside the official capital of Jubbaland. It seems Farmaajo is dead set to dethrone Madoobe no matter what.

Also, since there is maritime dispute with Kenya, Somalia believes that Kenya has no business to occupy and stay within the Somali territory while waging both diplomatic and business wars in Somalia. The Farmaajo government had already written a letter to both the regional government and the UN for its desire for Kenya to leave Somalia. In my opinion, the next move could be a motion from the Somali parliament that demands the removal of the Kenyan soldiers from Somalia. If that is achieved, Kenya has no choice but to vacate the land or it will be designated as hostile power occupying Somalilands. And that kind of designations will allow Somalis to take up arms and fight the invading Kenyans.

As reports indicate, the Jubbaland issue is just starting . I have even heard a news from one prominent Ugaas saying that Farmaajo had swore to gamble his seat and make sure for the removal of Madoobe. If the federal government takes over Central JUbba and the capital Bu'ale  and Gedo, which is 2/3 of region,  they will be able to isolate Madoobe in Kismaayo while Al-shabaab is squeezed to Lower Jubba. 

The plan is to isolate Madoobe from the larger Jubbaland community and from the international community. Then another pressure will be applied to the Kenyan government.. 

In other words, Madoobe might be elected by those he hand picked , and win the short term battle, but might eventually lose the bigger war of controlling Jubbaland. 

 

 

 

 

That is alot to do for the one year he has left.

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Dalmar1   
6 hours ago, Apophis said:

That is alot to do for the one year he has left.

Exactly the man farmaajo only has a year left, so i doubt he will do anything at all.

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Dhoodaan   

The stooge who started this topic. That was the plan to held the election in buaale in first place,  and they are not one inch closer freeing buale yet. The vice president and the minister of security has full contoll of gedo, and there is darwsih army paid the salaries by madoobe that controls baladxawo, luuq and doolo. there are few failmajo suporters that exist in garbaharey and bardheere. madoobe has more and loyal army then failmajo. The real habitants of gedo with their Ugaas yariisow support Madoobe. The cowdaaq gangs are the only ones making the noise. bare Hiraale with support of HAG  Government and 250 army in kista had much more better chance then Xidig or seraar, we all know what happen to hiraale.

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Apophis   
36 minutes ago, Dhoodaan said:

The stooge who started this topic. That was the plan to held the election in buaale in first place,  and they are not one inch closer freeing buale yet. The vice president and the minister of security has full contoll of gedo, and there is darwsih army paid the salaries by madoobe that controls baladxawo, luuq and doolo. there are few failmajo suporters that exist in garbaharey and bardheere. madoobe has more and loyal army then failmajo. The real habitants of gedo with their Ugaas yariisow support Madoobe. The cowdaaq gangs are the only ones making the noise. bare Hiraale with support of HAG  Government and 250 army in kista had much more better chance then Xidig or seraar, we all know what happen to hiraale.

Most of these commentators, especially galbedi, have last been to Somalia when they had full head of hair, i.e ages and ages. 

They have no clue on the realty on the ground and digest N&N facebooks propaganda.

  • Haha - That was funny. You made me laugh! 1

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10 hours ago, Apophis said:

Most of these commentators, especially galbedi, have last been to Somalia when they had full head of hair, i.e ages and ages. 

They have no clue on the realty on the ground and digest N&N facebooks propaganda.

@galbeedi's 'my sources told me' has long been discredited. :D

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