^Guys!!! Yes - those others are criminals and should be brought to justice - but does that mean that all other criminals should be put on the waitlist until such time as 'perfect' justice can reign??? Hanging Sadaam means one less criminal - how is that insufferable?

Originally posted by Castro: "Widely recognized" are the key words, aren't they? How widely recognized is Karzai? Or Al-Maliki? Legitimacy is a critical condition of any government, yaa LePoint, and the TFG sorely lacks it. And what little they had, they lost in the past few weeks. In addition to the monumental task of rebuilding the country physically, there's an even greater hurdle and that is legitimizing the illegitimate. There's no new blood here. It's the same old killers wearing different coats. I would have to suffer severe and sudden amnesia to support the TFG in their quest for power. Specially not after what happened in the past ten days. Castro - you need wide recognition and authority . That is what is missing from Karzai and Maliki. You have seen how quickly 'authority' was established by the ICU and then TFG. Strangely enough - it did not take very much in the way of force, manpower or money for either side. Because the populace is sick and tired of war. At present - TFG and their allies seem to wield the authority. Time will tell what they do with it. As to legitimacy - I think Somalis will judge that by results especially for the long-suffering south. A/Y is a warlord but when he led Puntland - most acknowledged that some improvement had been made. As such - the TFG has 2 out of the 3 - recognition and authority. And as you know, authority has conferred legitimacy in many a dictatorship anyway! As to warlords - they will be around for at least another generation. Many will support 'their' warlord. I think comprises must be made with the less murderous ones and those others should be told to retire or else.

^Adeer - the only jersey I wear is one emblazoned with peace. And lately hysteria has not be unabsent on the forum, noh?! I don't think doom and gloom is the order of the day as so many others eeem to. Given the rollercoaster ride of Somali politics for the last umpteen years - I would've thought a more wait and see attitude would have prevailed. That certainly is my position.

Originally posted by Castro: quote:Originally posted by ThePoint: [QB] ^Hmmm - I would put the odds at better than that. Mainly because Somalia is starting off at such a low base - any incremental comprehensive improvement would be more than people have seen for a very long time. Man - if they could ensure that the Somali passport can become functioning again - many would be grateful. They're not starting at a low base. Muqdisho was in relatively good shape when these goons arrived. So I disagree. And a passport is only as good as the countries that recognize it. Printing rainbow colored passports does not a government make. Well - everything is relative! But removing checkpoints and establishing basic security in Mog was regarded as a big achievement only several months ago - so I'm not sure how much of a base has developed in Mog in that short time. As to the passports - time will tell. Though one would think that a widely recognized government once it gets going would have its passports accepted as it is the 'legitimate' authority, no?

^Ah if that's the case - then let me join in and and increase the 'therapeutics'! ------------Breaking News---- MELES AND HIS ENTIRE CABINET HAVE BEEN KILLED IN AN AIRPLANE CRASH!!!! ISLAMISTS HAVE TAKEN OVER THE GOVERNMENT IN ADDIS AND DECLARED A STATE OF ISLAMIYA!!! THE NEW STATE OF ISLAMIYA HAS INVITED SOMALIA TO JOIN AND VOWED TO CRUSH THE REMAINING XAABASH IN SOMALIA IF THEY DON'T GET OUT FORTHWITH!!!

^Hmmm - I would put the odds at better than that. Mainly because Somalia is starting off at such a low base - any incremental comprehensive improvement would be more than people have seen for a very long time. Man - if they could ensure that the Somali passport can become functioning again - many would be grateful.

^Why mad?? Is he a lovable cuddly do-gooder? :eek:

^Is there any point to this baseless rumour mongering? :confused:

^There was an agreement to have a cease fire and get back to talks as negotiated by the EU envoy. It was widely reported.

Originally posted by Castro: quote: the escalating war will likely ensure that Somalia remains a failed state for the foreseeable future, a battleground not only for local clan and political rivalries but also for regional and international strategic"great games."There are unlikely to be any clear winners any time soon, but the losers almost certainly will be the Somali people, who after more than 16 years of war, warlordism and famine, can only look forward to more of the same. This time, however, we're taking Ethiopia down with us. I think this is nonsense - If you look at the way a single authority was established by the ICU so quickly after the initial skirmish in Mogadishu and now the same for the TFG after their initial skirmish around Baidoa. This tells you that establishing authority in Somalia is much easier than pundits had prophesied. And that there is little general appetite for war. Indeed, it seems the majority of civilians are ready to embrace anyone who wants to bring any decent semblance of order. How well the general populace embraces the TFG will depend on the removal of Ethiopians and not resurrecting the depravity of the warlords originally chased out.

^Perhaps he means the fitnah of agreeing to sit down and talk with your enemy(as per a peace loving Muslim) then one day later attacking him in his small stronghold thus leading to the disaster currently unfolding in Somalia.

^LOL

^Quiet!

Originally posted by Valenteenah: quote:Originally posted by ThePoint: As to those others - :mad: Does it feel satisfying to sit in judgement of millions of sick people? It must. Please! Get off your high horse. You've never judged anyone? And who am I judging exactly - those individuals who engage in high-risk sex without protection and then pass it on to family members - a veritable life sentence on innocents!? How smug of me for judging these poor sick people! Please! :eek: :mad:

Originally posted by Taliban: quote:Originally posted by Northerner: Is he? I wonder what name he uses? Bashir Goth has written a sizable number of articles and poems (in both Somali and English), and if you keenly observe his writing style/signature and compare it to his topics/comments in the forums, then it shouldn't be difficult to know what name he uses. Bashir Goth - please stand up!

^Ninja squad? You are asking for a beat down no?

Originally posted by xiinfaniin: ^^ Aamiin to that. But I find your analogy here quite interesting. Adeer TFG is just that, transitional. The multi-year process you referred to was not a unique process. In fact, it has been one of many such processes that were held in a bid to produce a compromised form of government. In my mind there’s nothing that makes this process different than the one that preceded it and produced the Carta government. It was a step forward as it supposedly created a platform where warlords could voice political differences and attempt to govern rather than fight and kill each other, and in the process kill us, the innocent Somalis. But it was not to be. And you know it. a combination of Mogadishu warlords’ effort to impede any government, foreign intervention, and the sheer incompetence of its leaders hindered what ever potential success it could have. It has become ineffective, and quite frankly short of any agreement with the Courts, it will die right there in Baydhabo. Reason: one can’t govern his subjects by foreign troops. Simple. Some excellent points that I agree with. It is transitional - but this is the first internationally recongized and supported gov't since ... a very long time. You will have to concede that is a huge differential with Carta - and if the TFG were effective in exerting its control - this debate would not be happening. As to whether it will die - I think it has got a rejuvenation with all this 'al-Qaeda' talk and terrorist influence etc. The US will fall for the stuff all the time - even though - in this case, there appears to be some slight validity in it. As long as the bug-bear of 'al-Qaeda' is there - the US and others will support it and not let it fully die. Politically uninitiated of us might ask what would Courts achieve. The answer is, again, simple. Courts would either sit down with this government and dilute its secular nature or sit it out and wait till it vanishes technically or politically. Because they are ideologically driven (Courts are) all the money in the world would not buy their support. Hence the only way out of this impasse is to negotiate with clear understanding of each other. But if the General Duke’s understanding of the Courts mimics that of the old man, we are indeed in trouble. For Courts are no clannish in nature and theirs transcend tribal boundaries as they are defined. One needs to wise up and understand his foes. As noted - any waiting for the TFG to die may take for a very, very long time. Money may not buy the ICU's support but it can buy resistance against it. And the ICU needs stabilitly to consolidate its power and spread its influence. As to the clannish nature etc. I still think that is up in the air. Whatever it is negotiations and comprise is needed. Ethiopia has interest in Somalia and it would pursue it relentlessly--you are correct on that accord. But has Ethiopia helped TFG or hindered it? Can TFG, even if it wants to, really seek peace without Ethiopia, and ultimately reverse our political misfortunes? I think image wise - it has hindered it. The TFG has a credibility problem for sure. As to funding and military support - I think it may have helped it - although that is yet to be determined since the TFG has shown little ability to exert its influence. I think Somalia needs peace with Ethiopia as whole regardless of who's in power - Somalia needs to be rebuilt before we tackle our longstanding issues with Wthiopia. I am leaning toward the notion that says that TFG is beholden to Ethiopia that it will ultimately perish in its hands. It is in both TFG and Ethipia's interest to keep the TFG alive. If that means Ethiopia needs to step back - they will. But now - the game has gotten much bigger than Ethiopia and TFG. Talk of 'Al-Qaeda' has entered the fray - and the REALLY big boyz are flexing their muscle. Thus making the situation that much more volatile.

Originally posted by Thierry.: It is to avoid any outside influence especially that of a neighbour who has a lot of stake in the outcome of an agreement. I do no need to spell it out to you, the TFG should be independent from all influence it is the only way sincere dialogue can take place. It is very simple steps to avoid all this chaos. Step 1 ICU recognises the TFG Step 2 TFG tells Ethiopians to get out Step 3 Both parties come to negotiation table in Yemen or Khartoum Step 4 The ICU joins the TFG and represents the southern parts of the country Step 5 Shariah law is implemented Step 6 The issue of Federalism and centralism is discussed and its pros and cons are weighed. And so and so forth Why should the presence of influence impede sincere dialogue? Why should there be no influence in the TFG? Can anyone be completely influence-free - it is akin to claiming I have no biases. Should the same standard be applied to ICU - as per the gossip of rampant Al-Qaeda/Arab/Iran/Hizbollah/Syria/Eritrean influence? It seems to me - a peaceful man will accomodate the maximalist demands to achieve peace while one who is not peaceful will erect as many obstacles as possible. PEACE FOR SOMALIA

Originally posted by xiinfaniin: There is no shame in that adeer---nobility exists . Annaasu maacidinun , you know! But that’s beside the point. Adeer - you're talking to someone who has never seen Somalia - so you must explain some of ur oblique references or else dumb it down. So all you could come up with as a compromise is accepting to negotiate. Well, that’s not a compromise adeer. As for the Courts insistence on Ethiopia’s departure, which I don’t agree with it as a prerequisite for the talks, still it should be a significant item at the negotiation table. For with Ethiopia in Baydhabo and Galkacyo peace remains afar. Adeer, please. There is nothing that the TFG can offer the ICU apart from what it has already given to it ante negotiations. A legitimacy that comes from the TFG's recongition of ICU as a possible partner and the offer to sit down and hash out the details. Can u imagine Siyad sitting down with the SNM or SSDF back when?World recognition and legitimacy was given solely to Barre's government and those 2 organizations were called 'rebel' groups? It is much the same here - although the TFG's hand was forced because of the ICU's successes. Still they could've chosen to ignore ICU and label them an illegitimate 'rebel group'. I don't see Ethiopian troops causing war in B or G. Those who want to attack them are. I want them out and that should be part of the discussions if they happen. But this rabid obsession with Ethiopian presence is tired. At the end of the day 99% of Somalia's problems are the result of Somalis. And at this point - the solution is political not military. We’ve been there before but when all said and done TFG’s position is untenable, politically and militarily. You can’t have Geedi, for instance, as a PM and wish he could genuinely negotiate with his potential replacement. You can’t rely on Somalia’s historical foe and present it as a savior whose actions are Samaritan of sort! Politically, yes. Militarily, I don't know. And I don't want to find out frankly. Why can't Geedi negotiate? - after all he is part of the chosen government of Somalia - a multi-year process that included many participants. If the ICU want to replace him - they should partake in a process and receive the support of others to take that role. I think all involved understand Ethiopia has interests and it will pursue those relentlessly. But the drumbeat re Ethiopia is a aide show. It is akin to the constant drumbeat of 'terrorists' and 'al-Qaeda' vis-a-vis ICU. It is inaccurate and unhelpful. What is helpful is a negotiated comprise with no pre-conditions. And an absolute committment to ending any renewed bloodshed in southern Somalia.

Originally posted by Thierry.: Its all about give and take the ICU recognised legality of the TFG hence want power sharing in order to represent the south. On one condition and I do not know how many times it has to be said. Get the neighbours out and we will talk brother to brother, hopefully settle our differences. If not you know where the ICU stands Geedi and Yusuf will not see Xamar cadey any time soon. Get the Ethios out and we will all be on your boat But why does that matter if talking and comprise is the pressing need - why do you think it is helpful to have preconditions?

Originally posted by me: ^^^UR full of BS as usuall. One minute ur a tribalist and supporting ur local warlord and you enjoy the suffering of fellow Somalis, the next minute when we talk about ways of bringing peace to the whole of Horn of Africa, you are condemming war. Its very funny indeed. Either be a pacifist or shut up, don't be double faced with us here. Sorry - I should know better by now than to engage with you. Yet - one always hopes that reasoned dialogue rather than name calling and fatutousness would prevail. I won't let that mistake happen again. :cool:

LOOOOLLLLL! Relying on this anecdote - African men would have the opposite problem, no

Originally posted by me: This war will be a great oppurtunity for us all. Don't look at the down side alone, Somali's would have died with or without invasion, they have been dying for the past 16 years.... Ethiopia is an irresponsible state, its a regional bully and it needs to be stopped, who is better equiped to stop this bully then Somalia? We have a history of teaching this bully lesson's from Axmed Guray's era to the 80's. Lets finish Axmed Guray's work. :eek: Fat lot of good war has done us in the past 30+ years and a ruined state taking on what is independently termed the regional power? That has the hallmark of complete irrationality.

^LOL - better the devil you know......

Originally posted by General Duke: The point, the millitary means is not out of question. Its the only legitimacy of the Clan Courts, that they defeated the warlords and captured many towns in the south and center. GD - that is certainly not inconsequential. I think you downplay that too much. I think another aspect of their legitimacy is due to Islamic component, however 'convenient' it may be at times. In the political and diplomatic arena they have been a horrible failure. Their recognition of the TFG, makes little sense, since they want to fight the very entity they recognise. I think you've got a point there - but I think it may be that they don't want to be seen as completely intransigient. And it may reflect a genuine willingness to play their role in a future government, though I'm sure the size of their role will harldy be what the TFG envisions. Their latest gaff, the seven day ultimatum and then the u-turn, further highlights the weakness of this organisation. Other than the muscle of IndaCade's clan and funds of Abukar Cadaan they have very little to show. Thus IndCade will be out muscled soon. Then there will be peace, within the TFG frameowrk. [/QB] Certainly - it is somewhat of a u-turn but I'm glad of it. No more conflict is needed. As to the rest - yo no se.