A point is a good result all things considered, but as Abtigis pointed out the Ethiopians are pretty good at home. They even helped eliminate the Super Eagles( Nigeria) in African nations qualifying, by getting a draw at Addis. They should try to make efforts to get diaspora players, like Abdisalan Ibrahim playing in the Eredivise right now, to play for Somalia, they have good fitness levels.

Pretty naive to believe most Western aid is driven by benevolence. Consider how aid has often been used as leverage in various economic deals both at the international financial institutions( IMF/WB) and in bilateral relations. Say for example Zambia is considering nationalize its mines. Countries with TNC's that have interests in the mining industry, as well as the IFI's would threaten to cut aid, as a repercussion of such a decision. Same thing has happened countless times throughout Africa, especially during the crazes of the Washington Consensus in which structural adjustment was enforced everywhere. With this in mind, they have no right to try to enforce any sort of political/social norms on foreign countries. I have no idea how you could justify political grandstanding like this move by the British. There are plenty of states who haven't legalized gay marriage in the U.S., yet I doubt such a public tongue-lashing would ever be directed there way.

.5 for a diverse grouping of people who are from all over the country and no relevant cabinet positions sure does sound like a just and equitable system lol

LOL this press release is damning my goodness.

LOOL This recovering romantics character is incredible. I've never seen clan chauvinism expressed so eloquently well done man.

So the article says Azania is now officially dead on arrival. What do the Azanians say to this development?

Baashi;756512 wrote: GoldCoast It is too early to weigh in on the success or lack thereof of this operation. Remember it is rainy season and as all rainy seasons in that neck of the wood movement is extremely limited. Kenyans have the support of the big boys and as the spokesman rightly stated they do have the capacity to exact revenge against Kelligii Muslims . Aerial supremacy (drones, satellite technology, jets) and ground forces coupled with local boys are the bets tools of any war -- these assets awoowe make a huge difference in a war theater. The thing is though poor civilians (urbanite Kismayo folk) will get caught in the middle -- and take a double whammy -- indiscriminate aerial bombardment by Kenyans on one end and an intolerable self-defense campaign (a la ka kacaay, ha la dagaalamo ) where any passive man of fighting age unwilling to fight along AS line could be accused of sympathizing with the “enemy”, on the other end. Adduunyo ! Uninitiated Kenyan boys will soon learn that the art of pinning jelly to the wall is indeed a difficult art to master. AS is akin of jelly. The fact they even conducted the operation in the midst of the rainy season, has been quietly highlighted as incompetence by some of the "big boys" who do not seem to support this to the same level they did the Ethiopian incursion. Not out of love of Somali sovereignty but because on a purely technical level this seems too be ill planned. You are right however it is still very early and we will see how it progresses. Civilians will also surely be the losers, regardless of the outcome.

omar12;756507 wrote: It's not a PR campaign. Whether their being effective or not that is debatable, but hurting Al Shabab in some way is definitely their target. Well their actual PR has been horrific so far, and its definitely been aimed at appeasing Kenyans regarding the progress of this campaign.

he Kenyan military says it is trying to incapacitate the militant Islamist group al-Shabab by targeting its financial and logistical operations in Somalia. Kenyan military officials say they are closing in on key al-Shabab targets, four weeks into military operations in Somalia. Kenyan Army spokesman, Emmanuel Chirchir, says one of the most important objectives of ‘Operation Linda Nchi’ is to take the southern Somali town of Afmadow. “We believe Afmadow is critical to al-Shabab's operations, one, because it provides facilities for money transfers and that of course provides opportunities to pay soldiers," he said. "So that's one of the critical things. So, once we control Afmadow - in terms of getting rid of al-Shabab and then remaining with the locals who are supporting the operation - then in terms of logistically disabling al-Shabab we will have managed.” The military has said for weeks that its troops have been poised to advance on Afmadow. But heavy rains have made southern Somalia's dirt and sand roads nearly impassible, and have slowed Kenya's military advance on the ground. Kenya has still not disclosed how many soldiers are involved in operations in Somalia. The military is also relying heavily on its Air Force to hit al-Shabab positions. Major Chirchir says air strikes near the port-town of Kismayo have been successful. “In Kismayo, it was one of the jetty's that's close to the port," said Chirchir. "There used to be a palatial home and they believe this was the nerve center where they used to plan their battles. But now, after the first incursion and the second incursion we've not had - they have resorted to moving back to the city to mix with the local population.” Kismayo is another important economic asset for al-Shabab, and a city where the United Nations says the group gets much of its financial and material support. Some civilians have been fleeing the city out of concern over Kenya's aerial campaign or an impending showdown with al-Shabab. There are also reports that many others have been trapped by the rainy weather, unable to escape. In eastern Kenya over the weekend, two people were killed and another five were wounded in a grenade attack on a church. No one has claimed responsibility, but Kenyan authorities say they are investigating a link to al-Shabab, which has vowed to attack Kenya in retaliation for the military offensive. - These guys are really not serious LOL. Couple this with the donkey claim and downing an "alShabaab boat"( turned out to be fishermen) and this is almost comical. It's been nearly three weeks and they've hardly accomplished a thing. I'm starting to get the feeling this is all a PR campaign aimed at Kenyans, more than it is towards accomplishing any real strategic goals.

^ Its not my words, I posted a blog article from economist Paul Krugman. His views have been accurate for a while now IMO. He is referring to the risk of default in Italy as well, with reference to their govt bonds. BTW they are trying to get the Greek PM to resign, and replace him with a right winger who would push through the austerity measures and cancel the referendum. So far he's resisting but he's under immense pressure from his own party and basically all of Europe. Someone made a astute point when they mentioned that "bank coups are the new military coups" in 2011 lol.

lol is this a joke? Baydhabo and Baidoa are the same place. How are they claiming to conduct air raids on towns past Kismayo when they haven't even captured it yet? Funny thing is the Ethiopians captured 100 times more territory in days. This is not only a misguided incursion its also embarrassing. No wonder the Americans are distancing themselves from this trainwreck.

Lol.

Things are falling apart in Europe; the center is not holding. Papandreou is going to hold a referendum; the vote will be no. Italian 10-years at 6.29 at pixel time; that’s a level at which the cost of rolling over the existing debt will force a default, even though Italy has a primary surplus. And with everyone simultaneously pushing for fiscal austerity, a recession seems almost certain, aggravating all of the continent’s problems. I’ve been char-ting this trainwreck for a couple of years, and am feeling too weary to trace through it again right now. Let’s just say that the euro was an inherently flawed idea that can work only given a strong European economy and a significant degree of inflation, plus open-ended credit to sovereigns facing speculative attack. Yet European elites embraced the notion of economics as morality play, imposing across-the-board austerity, tightening money despite low underlying inflation, and have been too concerned with punishing sinners to notice that everything was going to blow apart without an effective lender of last resort. The question I’m trying to answer right now is how the final act will be played. At this point I’d guess soaring rates on Italian debt leading to a gigantic bank run, both because of solvency fears about Italian banks given a default and because of fear that Italy will end up leaving the euro. This then leads to emergency bank closing, and once that happens, a decision to drop the euro and install the new lira. Next stop, France. It all sounds apocalyptic and unreal. But how is this situation supposed to resolve itself? The only route I see to avoid something like this involves the ECB totally changing its spots, fast. Aside from that, Mr. Draghi, are you enjoying your new job? http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/eurodammerung/

I dont understand. I think its a reasonable assertion that Turkey cannot have major influence over the political direction in Somalia, but how does that equate to their role being useless? There are clear and tangible results here from how Somalia is benefiting from the Turkish engagmenet in a development sense. Don't get why you are trying so hard to discredit this angle by pointing out the limits to their sway. Unless I'm lost I haven't seen anyone suggest that they will change the direction of conflict. Just that there have been positives associated with their intervention. Are you questioning this as well? Also I think its you who is dreaming here and needs some sense of political economy when you mention Somalia as a potential market for Turkish finished goods lol. Surely you realize, at this stage of the game, there are barely any tangible benefits to be gained from Somali consumers. If that was the case the Chinese would have engaged a long time ago. What is very much more likely the Turkish motivation is there willingness to increase their regional prestige in the image of a benevolent power of sorts. This kind of reputation can reap itself benefits in places all across the Muslim world, outside of Somalia. It also has political benefits at home, in which its engagement has been very popular with a good number of its population. Regardless Somalia and Somalis have clearly gained from its interest. If both parties can mutually benefit what is there to discredit? Especially in the face of much more harmful engagements?

The idea austerity will help your economy recover is a flawed and close to discredited one, that continues to be peddled like religious doctrine. They are trying to save furniture in a burning house, and it will not work. The Greeks should call the bluff and vote against the package. Trying to ignore the clear systemic problems at play, and only attributing it to domestic spending is beyond a fallacy.

Yunis;755032 wrote: I don't understand why pll are waiting for null and void agreement papers that are not worth the paper is written on. This was just a photo-Op... PM Abdiwali waa is ceebeeyay - Then again he had no chance, its the way the system was setup. He had to rush in to Nairobi and make it look to the Soul Dead Somali audience that this was joint operation all along. Only in Somalia where a PM goes to his country's invading nation and signs the terms of the invasion agreement on the same day where scores of displaced civilians where bombarded and killed. No I was just interested in seeing what motivated Sharif's intitial opposition. Unless he comes out and says he still doesn't agree with the PM, the agreement shows it was obviously Azania.

Well it seems Sharif only opposed this whole thing due to Azania to be honest, and not because of the actual nature of the invasion. Pathetic captiulation or in other words business as usual. I don't see how this is a positive development in anyway but we'll see if time proves me wrong.

Are Kenyans seeking a buffer zone in Somalia? As Kenya's troops continue their incursion into southern Somalia in pursuit of Islamist militants, the BBC's Will Ross considers the motives behind the deployment. "I hope in three or four months, al-Shabab will have been removed from our region. Then one day I'll invite you to come to Kismayo to see what's going on," said Abdullahi Shafi, personal assistant to the governor of Somalia's Lower Juba region. He is hopeful that with Kenyan military help, he can soon return home to a new semi-autonomous region in southern Somalia. "We have been in hell for the last 20 years. We need a new Somalia," he said, wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with "Azania" - the name of the new region which comprises Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba. It already has a flag - blue, white and red - a parliament, a house of elders and a president in waiting. The Kenyan government says it sent troops to Somalia to fight al-Shabab, whom it blames for the recent kidnappings of tourists and aid workers. "Kenya has the capacity, the ability and the will to defend its territory and its people," said Moses Wetangula, Kenya's foreign minister. But analysts point out that for several years Kenya, with international support, has been pushing for Azania, traditionally known as Jubaland, to be set up. Kenya has trained and equipped Somali troops, as it would like a buffer zone to shield its territory from lawless Somalia. So some analysts see the kidnappings as just a convenient excuse for carrying out the plan militarily. Map of Somalia's disputed areas The army has been giving unverifiable reports of success across the border. The Kenyan media, which have scarcely questioned the motive for going to war, have told the country about captured towns that no one has ever heard of. One front page article referred to the "imminent fall of Kismayo". For now, the cautious voices are being drowned out. "It's not going to be easy for Kenya to stabilise and pacify that part of Somalia, much less drive out al-Shabab," said Rashid Abdi, of the International Crisis Group. "I think the Kenyans are into a very long and messy intervention in Somalia." Rich in oil? The man who hopes to soon end his absentee presidency says the creation of Azania, in April, came about following the consultation of more than 30 clans. He says he is not a separatist, but speaks of a bright future for his people in a Somalia where power is devolved from Mogadishu. Al-Shabab's military spokesman Sheik Abdul Asis Abu Muscab Al-Shabab has threatened retaliatory attacks in Kenya "Our priority will be to consolidate the peace, set up the administration and re-establish education and health systems before we move on to development and infrastructure," Somali MP Professor Mohammed Abdi Gandhi told me in Nairobi. Asked where he got his last name from, he smiled and replied, "Because I'm against violence." A geologist with dual French and Somali nationality, he has critics who accuse him of imposing what some call the "Gandhi plan" without being all-inclusive. "They met at a hotel in Naivasha where Professor Gandhi was proclaimed the president. Everybody clapped. The constitution was produced. They all clapped again, even though they hadn't even read it," one critic told me. In response, Mr Gandhi says the process has been as inclusive as possible with dozens of consultative meetings. There are reports that Azania - or at least the sea off its coast - is rich in oil. Mr Gandhi, a former Somali defence minister, has worked as a consultant for the French oil giant Total. This and this has led some to conclude that countries including France and Norway have thrown money at the Azania project. "These are all rumours. Not true," he says. "To my knowledge, there are no groups or companies that have come to us. When it's peaceful, then we will open the door and all the international oil companies can come to explore. Nothing is under the table." Centralised power has not worked well in Somalia. The war has kept the government confined to the capital Mogadishu and, more often than not, to hotels in Nairobi. As Puntland and Somaliland and several other states break away, a devolved form of government is seen as better way forward, as long as it is well planned and not done through the gun alone. "Ideally, Somalis should have been given the opportunity to plan for a federal state in a gradual, consensual way," says Mr Abdi. "Right now, we have clans competing among themselves to carve out clan enclaves or cantons in various parts of Somalia. I don't think clan states are the way forward for Somalia." Ethiopian factor Somali government officials have given mixed reactions to the Kenyan incursion. A Kenya soldier on the border with Somalia Kenyan troops are fighting alongside a Somali militia against al-Shabab President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said the government was grateful for logistical support but said the Kenyans should stay out of Somalia - a comment which drew this response from the president of Azania. "Sheikh Sharif doesn't want change. To prolong his power, he wants the status quo. He wants al-Shabab to stay. He is a big obstacle to peace. He has done a lot to block our programme," Professor Gandhi told me - without ruling out the possibility of this stance leading to armed conflict between the president's and his soldiers. "If he keeps the status quo, he can convince the international community that he is fighting al-Shabab. He needs more help and more time. For him, all he has in mind is to stay in power." The controversial issue of foreign troops in Somalia could complicate the Kenyan mission. Some analysts suggest it could even help bolster al-Shabab, which has played the nationalist card before. The Kenyans are fighting alongside a militia run by Sheikh Ahmed Madobe - a man who does not see eye-to-eye with Mr Gandhi. As well as this potential source of tension, there is also concern that clan rivalries could break out if the common enemy of al-Shabab is dealt with. Then there is the Ethiopia factor. Analysts say Addis Ababa is strongly opposed to Azania being set up. The fear is Ethiopian Somalis of the ****** clan may seek support or refuge across the border in Azania which is inhabited mainly by people of the ****** clan. As for Kenya, it clearly had to act to secure its border - the question is whether that should have been done without crossing the frontier or at least without going deep into Somalia's web of war. "I think once the body bags come back home and the huge bill comes in at a time when the shilling is depreciating so fast, Kenyans will sober up. They will realise that this kind of foreign adventurism may have been ill advised," said Mr Abdi. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15499534

Abtigiis;754651 wrote: Duke is softening his stance. I believe he is being briefied on the wider permuations. Xinnfanin may actually emerge unscathed out of this if it becomes clear Dr. Abdiweli and Faroole are not lone voices, but are representing the consensus of their constituencies. The Azanias certianly believe so and think it is a breakthrough. They think with this developments, they finally exorcised the evil of kin rivalry. This much i heard. Some are even going to the extreme of doing a "Somaliland" if the Sharif couldn't get out of what they think is "clan politicking". The clan experts are mobilising the grassroots along that theme and it surely is believeable for the common man. They are using powerful examples. Allegedly, the Sharif gave a damning interview in 2006 where he said he left Mogadishu to save the people, after fleeing Ethiopia's attack. He said those words in Kismayo, and vowed to make a stand there. The clan experts are tying the knot with some dexterity. "Mogdishu is saved, Kismayo is set ablaze" . It is said that Sharif also called AMISOM and others to free Mogadishu of Alshabab, but he doesn't mind Alshabab abusing the people in Kismayo. The plot thickens from there. And you can figure out. That is why even if his call for kenya to halt the aggression was coming from genuine nationalism and duty-boundness, it won't make much sense for significant constituencies. And given the prevailing mindest in Somalia is that things are all driven by clan-centrism, Sharif will only believed by a small number of intellectuals and elites. It is a potentially dangerous development one that can regress the gains made on bridging clan animoisties. A reason why Sharif should backdown or at least should reachout to the disgruntled groups in some way to prevent the situation from getting worse. This could happen without him reversing his opposition to the Kenyan invasion. There is no gurantees he will succeed, but he should talk to the Azanians (even those with him Mogadishu) to erase this clannish victim-playing getting ground. Do you agree with this narrative?

Wow. These guys change their position hourly. Looks like someones gonna have to back down here. I see where this is going...

Che -Guevara;754313 wrote: Johnny...The TFG has been in existence in 2004 and in that long period has not managed to establish itself even with the help of foriegn forces including AMISOM. Theoretically, AMISOM's mandate is to help Somalia till such time that Somalia Government has the capacity to render its services and obligations towards its citizens without any hindrance. Even if I was to agree with you on AMISOM mandate, the question is has AMISOM's presence helped the Somalia in building capacity in terms of national security and to lesser extent social services? In the larger context, does the presence of the international community including our neighbors helped the TFG in meeting its obligations. What Somalia needs is not government in name or government whose existence is determined by the President, Prime-Minister and the Speaker and the presence of foriegn forces. What Somalia and Somalis need are institutions that deliver services,exert control, and protect the country's sovereignty. The international community and AMISOM have not helped Somalia or TFG in building capacity to the point that AMISOM becomes irrelevant. Take for example Somalia's security apparatus, Xiin posted an article about Pland's security services being send to Uganda for training. This is to enhance Pland's and by extension Somalia's ability to provide security for its people. Now if there was genuine effort to help Somalis in building institutional capacity, why would thousands of Somali recruits be send to foriegn lands? Couldn't they be trained in Somalia at fraction of the cost? Couldn't the rest of the money be used to equip them and pay their salaries. Does it make sense that hundreds of millions are spent on AMISOM while the Somali troops could barely feed themselves and resort to selling their weapons to the very people that they are suppose to be fighting? The scheme of sending thousands of Somali recruits to Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Jabouti is clear example, this is mashruuc for other stakeholders. None of this is being done to enable the TFG to achieve dominance or prove itself to be real government. The presence does not help the TFG. Resources that would have gone to the TFG are diverted to AMISOM and the TFG with its weak leaders and divisions is not in position to object to any decision made by third parties. If the idea is to defeat AS, in my estimation, this could only be done through two ways, one is to have capable and unified Somali force that could stand up to it. This of course requires political will and willingness to compromise and win over other Somali stakeholders including the Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah, Pland and even the secessionist. I see no Somali leaders that is both willing and able to unite different factions for common cause. The other option and more realistic one is to coopt all or elements of AS into the TFG. The success in Xamar and mishandling of the famine have created splits in AS and some could have been persuaded to abandon the cause. The invasion and I hope you would stop calling it incursion gave new lease of life for AS. It is counterproductive and couldn't come at worst time for TFG and our people as we are suffering severe famine and TFG was beginning to look abit competent. This invasion undermines the TFG and exposes lack of political will. Abtagiis...You talk about Somalis as if you are removed from them. They are just like you who made chooses to deliberately support a group at the expense of our national interest. Admittedly, this includes me as well. Brilliant analysis. Looking forward to hearing the responses to this post

I thought it was about the poor kidnapped Western aid workers. Why isn't Azania mentioned anywhere in this piece? Oh you mean its not on the top of the agenda? lol.

Although I sympathize with their situation particularly in Ethiopian territory, I think the first paragraph of this post applies closer to a much more neglected and derided portion of the Somali people. You have a voice at the table, my kin do not, yet far sighted analysis should extend beyond such circumstances in my humble opinion.

Bigger issue than AMISOM itself, is that the TFG has not proven the ability to pick up on its military gains from the ground up. Until it proves otherwise and functions as a relevant governing structure, I can't be too optimistic about their future. Its always been repeated that if military gains aren't matched with political ones, problems are unlikely to be solved. What proof is there that the political part of this equation has any credibility?

Abtigiis;754178 wrote: YES. Somethings are cooking and the Sharif is acting. I'm skeptical of what motivates his position even though I am in line with it. Wouldn't be surprised at all.