Arafaat

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Posts posted by Arafaat

  2. Posted

    On 3/8/2024 at 7:49 PM, Illyria said:

    Not only have Habashas deployed their militias to the Buhodle, Sool and Awdal border perimeter, but they also have been arming Bixiye with planes full of military hardware spotted (to be confirmed). More ganimah for Jamaahirta, I say.

    It seems the real land deal with the Habesha’s isn’t about a recongnition but military muscles to take revenge. 

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  3. Posted

    On 3/9/2024 at 1:04 PM, maakhiri1 said:

    Jeegaan will never let fair and free election 

    Jeegaan should stay around even if it’s means to rob votes, as they killed the social contract and trust Somaliland was based on it’s only fair they bury it as well.
     

    Kolay wee dileen, kafantiina ha u tolaan. 

  4. Posted

    12 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

     

    The best possible outcome is genuine reconciliation and agreement among all warring groups. This will be a difficult task that would require serious men who are sincere in their efforts. With enough pressure from the West and the realization on the elites' part, that they will lose everything might prompt a change in their behavior. This is the most hopeful outcome.

    Abiy is the biggest obstacle. Unfortunately, the West believes there is no clear alternative leader that can replace him. The Emirate money and Turkish/Chinese are what keep in power militarily.

    Other groups that will hinder any peace process include:

    1. Oromo PP, this is the group that surrounds Abiy. Their support for him is strong. This is due to the fact they are now occupying the admin centers of the government and military.  They are amazingly corrupt and are robbing the country blind.

    2. OLA. Abiy tried to coopt OLA with the promises of positions within the government. They flatly declined his offer. Their only interest is free Oromia. They are most active in Western Oromia and Borana regions. They ran most of the rural areas and moved as they wished. Abiy tried to suppress with regional forces, ENDF, and drones, but it is winning OLA more fans.

    3. Amhara: The Amhara are most aggrieved. They sincerely believe Abiy wouldn't have defeated TPLF without their sacrifice. Their grievances are not only with Abiy. They believe they have unfairly been blamed for everything that went wrong in Ethiopia since the days of Melenik, and as such, every new admin would hit them hard. The Amhara can be divided into three groups, the first group wants to oust Abiy and revive the centralized Ethiopia where they ran everything. The second group has given up on Ethiopia. They come to believe a separate homeland for Amhara is a must.  This group supports the Fano movement. The third group is within PP. They once believed they could change the government within, but that hope has faded and many are leaving PP, and with their departure, PP has essentially an Oromo party.

    4. Ethiopian army: The institution is not what used to be. It is highly dependent on conscripts and it is beginning to look an Oromo party. Most generals and colonels are Oromo. It is no longer a reflection of Ethiopia. More and more soldiers are defecting every day.

    5. Tigray; The peace process between Abiy and TPLF has not worked out well for Tigray. From TPLF's perspective, their lands are still in the enemy's hands. Aid is barely coming into Tigray. They appealed to the AU to help in implementing the Pretoria Agreement.  TPLF still has two hundred thousand armed forces. Abiy wants them to join the war, but so far, they have wisely decided not.

    6. Eritrea: Afwerki feels crossed. He believed in a centralized Ethiopia with no ethnic borders, but he made the mistake of trusting an Ethiopian leader. He was blinded by his hatred for TPLF. I believe he is no longer vested in one Ethiopia whose leaders he can manage.

    There are three possible ends. The first and most difficult is what I mentioned above, true peace among all parties with acceptable political settlement. The second is an apocalyptic end to this ailing empire, a war to end all wars where new countries will be born.

    The third is a new alliance among Highlanders and Eritrea that can overwhelm Abiy and exile or kill him. The Highlanders and Eritrea are politically savvy enough to put their differences aside in pursuit of a bigger goal. 

    I don’t think the west can sufficiently understand this sort of complexity and fluidity in order to play a constructive role. So option nr 1 seems highly unlikely to materialise, which leaves us option 2 or 3, a failed Ethiopia or an Ethiopia reconquered by highland Xabashas. But I don’t see how highlanders would reassert their influence in the current Addis overrun by Oromo’s, surrounded by Oromo’s, and with an Oromo military elites in power. 

  6. Posted

    4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    Any reasonable person knew this was not going to work. It had no legal basis and the alternative was war which Abiy knows he can't win.

    Even without any legality being there and ICJ striking down the agreement the second Somalia goes to the court, I fear that for the Somaliland regime this is outweigh by the the business prospectives of the deal and presenting a quick win for the electoral before the elections, irrelevant of the end result on its recognition.

  7. Posted

    I hope your right. 
     

    P.S. But having no trust whatsoever in the regime and it’s Ethiopian advisors, this well could be a deflection strategy of Ethiopia to make everyone think that they’re walking away from signing the MoU, while they then turn around and sign it in the coming time. See the above video with the Somaliland committee continuing its work in preparation of the deal. 

  8. Posted

    30 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    i doubt it  with out recognition ina bixii cant sell it to the people he will lose his head , 

     besides there is no benefit for Somaliland  recognition is valued more then anything  more then shares money or what ever concession one wants to give .

    Ethiopia once agains saves Somali unity  , by backing down from the MOU 

    From the perspective of politicians you would have been right, but from a businessman’s point of view, nothing is more important than a ‘mashruuc’. 

    ‘Somaliland oo sahamineysa goobtii ay Ethiopia saldhig ka dhigan lahayd’. 
     

     

  11. Posted

    Firdhiye: Waan la dagaalamaynaa Itoobiya haddii ay ciidan dul keento degaanada SSC- Khaatumo 

    Khamiis, Maarso, 7, 2024 (HOL) - Hoggaamiyaha maamulka SSC-Khaatumo, Cabdiqaadir Axmed Aw-cali Firdhiye ayaa uga digay dowladda Itoobiya inay soo faro galiso arrimaha gudaha ee degaanada maamulkiisa.

    Hoggaamiye Firdhiye oo maanta kumanaan shacab ah kula hadlayay fagaare kuyaala magaalada Laascaanood, ayaa sheegay inay jiraan warar sheegaya in ciidamo Itoobiyaan ah la dul keenayo degaanada SSC uu ka arrimiyo maamulkiisa.

    “Waxaanu aqbali karayno ma ahan, ma aqbalayno. Dadkayaga iyo dalkayaga annagaa ka masuul ah. In ciidamo kale la dulkeeno ama lasoo fara galiyo, ma aqbalayno, waana ka dagaalamaynaa,” ayuu yiri Hoggaamiyaha SSC- Khaatumo, Firdhiye.

    Firdhiye ayaa ugu baaqay dowladda federaalka Soomaaliya inay caddeyso mowqifkeeda Soomaalinimo. Wuxuu sheegay in looga baahan yahay in ay ka qeyb qaataan sidii dalka looga difaaci lahaa cid walba oo khatar ku ah midnimada dalka.

    Hoggaamiyaha SSC wuxuu ku amray ciidamadiisa inay heegan buuxda galaan, una diyaar daroobaan duulaan kaste oo kaga yimaada dhinaca Somaliland. 

     

  15. Posted

    4 hours ago, galbeedi said:

     

    Xaaji is a lunatic and there is no need to debate. He says 85% of the British land. East Sanaag is even bigger than the whole region of Sool and is out of the control of Somaliland. Badhan, Hadaaftimo, Dhahar, Laasqoray and east of Erigaabo is under Puntland or under Maakhir clan.

    Furthermore, I know where Xaaji is coming from and I am not worried about him. The end of Somaliland project is the end of perks and the crumbling of the lies of 35 years, and I don't blame him.

    I don't waste time with him, but I am watching the more dangerous man called Carafaat.

    He is trying to revive the dying project and the SSDF man Illyria is on board albeit in different ways. The bloody rebel are always in cahoots or work together. Anyway, Carafaat is a Waddani Party man with few distinctions from Kulmiye in terms of foreign policy. Even the old statesman C/qaadir Jirde is on board about the base and Ethiopian recognition plot. Mind you the GX are very hungry both for money and power, they have been crying for power for 31 years . With the weak leader Cirro flanked by Hirsi Gaab and Hargeisa oligarchs don't expect anything good. That is the message I am sending to people in Mogadishu. Waddani could be worst.

    I know the evil Kulmiye is always plotting and I heard lately that they want Rayaale to join their ranks. I don't know their intentions, but I heard they are combining a corrupt guy who sold every government building and land during Ahmed Siilaanyo time called Cali Mareexaan with Rayaale in order to destroy the Awdal State Movement project.

    Furthermore, the GX will boast as those who paid the most blood for the project and might even complicate things. DEsperate people are expected to do the unthinkable like Biixi just did,  and hungry people might even do worse than Biixi.

    So, Mr. Carafaat, stop this games and come to the table of unity and find new creative ways of ending this project.

     

     

    Galbeedi,

    You couldn’t be farther from the truth here.

    1) If your saying I am of the same clan lineage as some of those leaders in Kulmiye and Wadani, then yes as all Somalis belong to a clan family one way or the other. But it doesn’t mean my political thinking and ideas are forged by those from the same clan? No, first I hardly agree with their politics and thinking, and second I really don’t care about Kulmiye or Wadani. I see Wadani as an offspring Kulmiye gave birth to, and I expect them to be much like Kulmiye 2.0, given their politics and personalities.  The reason I have been vying for elections is because thats what they signed up for and agreed to with the electorate, and because I think the change of power is better then the dictatorial regime, the current regime is envisioning. 

    2) Thirdly, I am sure you understand where Xaaji Xunjuf is coming from as both of your thinking is very much based on the same core of zero sum clan thinking covered under the disguise of ‘Somalia and Unionism’(you) and ‘Somaliland and recognition’(XX), while I have not discovered in neither of your or XX thinking and writing a genuine ideological belief in those covers your potrating, but rather see only a naked form of ‘clan’ based political thinking, interest, ambitions and emotions, mostly ‘reactionary’ in nature and driven by ‘animosity’ to the ‘other’ supposed clan or group. 

    3)  I never believed in the typical Somali thinking and clan mentality of ‘destruction’ and ‘deconstruction’ of what was there in order to achieve one’s goal and to build something new. No sir, you work with what you have to construct. What does that mean in terms of achieving unity or state building, you ask? That we don’t need to burn down the few public offices, services and existing local social contracts in Borama and Hargeisa, in order to achieve unity or to forge a new political system. 

    4) On ending the ‘secessionist’ political project, I think those that have constructed the project are doing that already and hardly need any encouragement from anyone. Don’t be fooled by the public silence, for its only silence before the gathering storm and rapture. And they feel that too, and hence seeing everywhere ghosts and enemies out there to destroy them, but eventually it’s the own schizophrenia that brings it to an end. 

  16. Posted

    15 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Somali Prime Minister accuses Ethiopia of sabotaging Somalia-Somaliland talks


    Tuesday March 5, 2024

    Mogadishu (HOL) - Somali Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre has accused Ethiopia of being determined to undermine the Somali government's efforts to continue talks with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

    Speaking in Mogadishu on Tuesday, Barre stated that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in Addis Ababa on January 1 betrayed Somaliland and emphasized that the Somali government has shown great patience with Ethiopia.
     

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    "We have endeavoured to be patient as much as possible. Ethiopian troops are in our country, yet we haven't asked them to leave. Their ambassador remains here, and we haven't expelled him. Their planes continue to arrive, and we haven't barred them. We seek to maintain the interests of our people in harmony and good neighbourliness. We still hold hope that they will withdraw from the so-called MoU agreement," said the Prime Minister.

    Barre has called on Somaliland leaders to return to the negotiating table.

    In the last week of December last year, Somalia and the breakaway region of Somaliland agreed to resume dialogue to address outstanding issues after enduring political tensions and years of deadlock.

    The agreement, reached after two days of talks mediated by Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh, marked the first of its kind since 2020 when similar negotiations stalled.

    Following the Djibouti talks, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed invited Somaliland President Muse Bihi to Addis Ababa to sign a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on January 1, granting Ethiopia access to the sea.

    Somalia has stated that there is no room for mediation in the dispute with Ethiopia unless Addis Ababa cancels its controversial deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

    Somalia finally understands that Ethiopia was sabotaging the talks, as there was really a momentum for the talks last year. 

     

  17. Posted

    Xaaji Xunjuf, you seriously want to invest in agriculture in Ethiopia, thereby producing investments, employment and currency for Ethiopia, instead you could have also invested in agriculture in Awdal, Gebiley, Erigavo, and all those other fertile lands thereby creating employment and investment for Somaliland, and on top of that kill Somalilands lifeline of Berbera Port, tax revenue for Somaliland government and employment generated directly and indirectly through the port? 

    You can’t be serieus 😟 

  18. Posted

    Well I am still not in to party politics and never said things would improve with Wadani, but one has agreed to rules of the game and Kulmiye wants to change the rules of the game, and refusing to organise elections and wants to hold on to power. And we can see how power has corrupted every fiber of Somaliland society 

  19. Posted

    You don’t get it, do you. Yes Somalia didn’t abide by its own agreement, but Somaliland government had more then 7 years to raise the issue. The fact that they are raising it now, when their mandate has ended and should be preparing for elections, shows it wasn’t important to them in the first place and now using populism to distract the public with this and any other issues they can throw at the public for distraction purposes, while they should be preparing for elections as their mandate(yes time) for the job has come to an end. 

  20. Posted

    3 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Yes but how can u blame Kulmiye if the walanweyns didnt honer the deal i mean are u crazy what could siilaanyo possibly do start dacwo, they made a mistake they should have never had any sort of talks with walanweyn. you cant blame everything to Somaliland that is unfair .. heshiis ba la galay walanweynta diidnt honer u should call them out

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Timing is important, I am not blaming the people of Somaliland but I am blaming it’s regime that was elected for 5 years, now already in its 7th year, was elected for a duration of time to realize whatever politics, even if was to escalate issue or take any meaningful action. Same thing for so called Aqoonsi, for years the leadership hasn’t done anything significant in that direction. 

    Its just not creditable as they were to busy in that time to robbing the place and using the government as a personal cash cow to fill the pockets of few and use the government as leverage for personal business deals in the last 6 years. And when they mandate (time given in power) has ended suddenly they play any populistic card to distract people from their actions and failed politics of the last 6 years, bombing civilians in las anod, losing the entire region and on top of that destroying the army. And now distracting people with air traffic control, SL getting aqoonsi, and deflecting with the boogie man of Somalia. 

    Please Spare us the theatrics, and don’t think for a second that people’s silence all these years was due to ignorance, but rather of one patience and that seems to have come to an end now given the pressure suddenly one is feeling to produce daily new distractions and detractions. And no Ethiopian flag on the coast, electoral delays and extension, or renewed conflict will change any of the lost time, lost opportunities, it will only lead to greater embarrassment, greater failures and eventually a dead end road. 

  21. Posted

    6 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    its only good to choose for ceel sheikh thats a reason to stop the borama clan to stop crying thats onlysmart and not antagonise the borama clan

    If you start thinking from their and your clan perspectives, opinions and interests, and you sell own clans native lands to foreign companies because it’s in your clans interest and good according to your own clans perspective. what’s holding back reer Awdal to do the same and sell to whatever foreign entity? Or others for that matter along that long coastal line where many clans have native lands? 

    Where is the national interest markaa, ielen clan interest ayaa badashay national interest? I am just saying try to look at issues from a broader perspective then one’s own, specially when perspectives are one dimensionally clan held, as clans perspectives can change as easily.  

  22. Posted

    11 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Somaliland is a democracy the presidennt was elected and he will only leave through elections the parliament is elected every one is elected  there is nothing  there for u to dislike 

     

     

    Xaaji, Somaliland does even control 8 out of the 23 electoral districts Somaliland itself has identified in its legal frameworks. Next to that there is a reason why u have advocated for Ethiopian base to be put in to Ceel Sheick(the Presidents native lands), as all the other regions wouldn’t accept Somalilands government decisions, hence showcasing that your ‘democratic’ control and sovereignty over all the territories is based on shaky grounds. 

  23. Posted

    3 hours ago, Illyria said:

    Historical context: Which way to the sea?
    Ethiopia has been landlocked and has sought a sea outlet intermittently for most of her history, at least since the Middle Ages. In 1776, Edward Gibbon, a renowned English historian, wrote: “Encompassed on all sides by the enemies of their religion, the Ethiopians slept near thousand years, forgetful of the world by whom they were forgotten.”6 Moreover, encouraged by the scramble for Africa among rival European powers in the nineteenth century, Emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia intensified his search for access to the sea. In 1878, in a letter to the heads of the governments of Italy, France, Germany, and England, he stated, “My road to the coast, to Zeila, Tojura, and Aden is at present closed by the Muslims.”7

    Before 1952, when Eritrea (a former Italian colony on the Red Sea) was federated with Ethiopia, the eyes of Ethiopia’s leaders were fixated on the Eritrean port of Assab and the Somali port of Zeila, both on the Red Sea.8 Menelik’s efforts ended in failure. However, Emperor Haile Selassie, who ruled Ethiopia from 1930 to 1974, relentlessly sought to gain sea access. In a letter to the United Nations in 1948, he wrote: “Prior to the race of European powers to divide up Africa, Ethiopia included an extensive coastline along the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.”9 Haile Selassie tried to annex Zeila, a historical Somali port town, to Ethiopia between the late 1920s and early 1950s. To secure Zeila, he initiated a radical strategy of negotiating colonial power to exchange the Haud region for Zeila, which the current MoU is said to be centered
    on, and which is adjacent to Djibouti. Haud is a large swath of Somali territory and has been part of present-day Ethiopia since the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty of 1897 when Britain ceded it to Ethiopia for the latter’s support in suppressing Somali clans.10 That attempt failed, primarily because, based on strategic interests, the colonial powers— particularly Britain and Ethiopia—failed to reach an agreement. There was also fear of repercussions from Somalis in those areas.11

     

    Recommendations
    For Somalia:

    • It is imperative that Somalia actively assert its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Enhanced engagement with Somaliland is necessary, acknowledging the deep-seated aspirations for secession among some segments while aiming for a resolution that respects the collective will of all Somali people. Discussions should be approached with a vision for unity that accommodates diverse aspirations through inclusive governance, potentially offering broad autonomy to Somaliland. This approach would address fears of marginalization while preserving national unity and promoting cooperation

    For Somaliland:

    • Somaliland needs to recognize that not all communities within its territory support secession. Negotiations should be guided by realism and pragmatism, aiming for an agreement that addresses Somaliland’s legitimate concerns while acknowledging the benefits of a united Somalia. This requires moving beyond the zero-sum mentality that has prevailed over the last thirty year

    For Ethiopia:

    • Ethiopia’s demand for “sea access” does not justify infringing upon the sovereignty of another nation. Ethiopia is a landlocked country, and demanding territorial waters, a naval base, and a commercial port that belong to another country is an act of aggression. This could result in a prolonged conflict with Somalis both within Somalia and in the diaspora, as well as within Ethiopia itself. History has shown that Somalis have defended their territory against Ethiopian advances, notably forcing a retreat in 2006. Further, any attempt by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to cross into Somalia could significantly bolster al-Shabaab in a manner reminiscent of the group’s emergence following Ethiopia’s previous military ventures, which ended in failure.

    For the International Community:

    • The international community must extend beyond mere affirmations of Somalia’s territorial integrity to actively discourage any actions that threaten Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. A firmer stance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aggression is required, one that emphasizes the need to respect international laws and norms. Diplomatic pressure, along with offers of mediation and support for dialogue, should be pursued vigorously, as heightened nationalism and fear have created a conducive environment for conflict.

    For All Parties:

    • International organizations such as the United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development must recognize that the Memorandum of Understanding, as it stands, risks igniting an avoidable and unnecessary war. Such a conflict would likely result in the exponential and overnight metastasis of al-Shabaab, the largest and most resourceful Al-Qaeda affiliate in the Horn of Africa, and in the growth of ISIS, which has a foothold in Somalia. A cloud of war is hovering over the Horn, presenting a clear and present danger that necessitates action, not mere affirmation

    https://8v90f1.p3cdn1.secureserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Ethiopias-MoU-with-Somaliland-.pdf

    Mr.Ilyria,

    It’s an excellent piece propositioning a rational and way forward based on recongnising defacto political state or status in Somaliland. The key actors or missing link here is SSC-Khaatuma, for their position is key to unraveling the overall acceptable directions of Somaliland(or the North). Approaches comparable who the Arusha agreement should be explored that have helped and played a key role for resolving the conflict between Sudan-South Sudan. 

    For now it seems both Somalia and Somaliland are ignoring the main causes of the dispute, with Somalia thinking that they focus should be on Ethiopia given the limited leverage Somaliland has. Whereas Somalilands thinking is that talks and resolving things with Somalia has no added value to Somaliland, and it’s only Ethiopia and int community that can offer it what it needs. Read  this piece below on Somalia’s strategy on the issue. Confirming Somalia’s currency strategy of diplomatically targetting Ethiopia, and thinking that Somaliland has no cards or leverage in the game. 

    I think both sides thinking is wrong, for they are not looking at the key causes and effects and neither portrays the political realities on the ground correctly. 
     

    https://hiiraan.com/op4/2024/feb/194892/mou_itoobiya_somaliland_vs_somalia….aspx

  24. Posted

    2 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    As for the whole  narrative that  not the entire Somaliland republic wants to be independent well that can easily be  agreed on we just put this to the test and we can hold a referendum on independence UN supervised  . if the majority of the people wants to be  with a Somaliland then we should respect this. if the majority of the people want to unite with the bunker then that should also be respected

    I think such a solution could be possible, but only after a period (+10 years) of SL collaborating and being part of the Somali state system, and for all politicians in the spectrum be allowed to engage as part of the system and with their communities. Such as was the case in South-Sudan, and agreed in the Arusha agreement. Toban sano ha la wada shaqeeyo in to a Union and then put the question back to the community in terms of directions. 

    Laakinse maanta umadii xero jabhadeed ayee ku xidhan yihiin guarded by a bunch of colonels that only know the barrel of the gun, and putting everyone with own thoughts in to jails. you can’t have a democratic open discussion and decision making in such an environment that is closely emulating fascism.