Arafaat

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Posts posted by Arafaat

  2. Posted

    19 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Tensions around buhoodle  Military build up happening this entire evening  maalimihi ugu dambeye eeh ramadan ba lugu jira samada na way furantahay . rag na wa is guraya  birtana wala isla kufaya

     

     

     

     

    Niyoow Ilaahay ma ka baqatid, dagaalkii hore xaqdarada wax kamaad Baran, ee hubka iyo ciidankaga la idin ka furtay. ilaahayna ogol Kama aha, anaguna ogol Kama nihin. 

    Maanta ma jiro ciidan u dagaalimiya oo u dhimaniya hogaan aan dan ka leheen oo ku mashquulsan boob,  ganacsi ka dhigtay dowladnimadii yaga oo isku taxay darajooyin military frontkana ka ordiya. 

    Marka iska faataxeyso oo ku duceyso wax sax ah. 

  3. Posted

    5 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

     Ciiro is likely to win if everything goes as plan unless biixi finds a way to recapture laacanood and bring aqoonsi   in the next few months i dont see how his popularity can go up .. But we need to be sure if elections are going to happen. But sida saxda ah ciiro ba ku leh inu noqoda madaxweynaha cusub  

    I don’t see how waging another war on Las Anod and getting a fake aqoonsi paper from Abiy would get Biixi re-elected, or would ever remedy the colossal damage inflicted on the social contract of Somaliland. 

     

    • Like 1

  7. Posted

    14 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    You mean to Somaliland it self ,not jus the goverment IOG doesnt like Somaliland no matter who runs it  

     

    He is a threat to regime, because he is close with them, knows them personally, their secrets, travel with Djibouti passports, and has also many agents inside government and also private sector ows quite some dues to Djibouti. 

     

  9. Posted


     

    7 hours ago, Illyria said:

    I think included should be sycophants and sympathisers of war crimes and criminals the likes of Oodweyne, XX, hordes frothing and chanting "Muuse ciidanka fasax", online trolls.

    Do they realize that of all of their bank accounts can be freezes and confiscated? Even without a ICC warrant, a simple US state court can even freeze their accounts, there is no such thing as impunity for supporting crimes against humanities.

  11. Posted

    On 3/8/2024 at 7:49 PM, Illyria said:

    Not only have Habashas deployed their militias to the Buhodle, Sool and Awdal border perimeter, but they also have been arming Bixiye with planes full of military hardware spotted (to be confirmed). More ganimah for Jamaahirta, I say.

    It seems the real land deal with the Habesha’s isn’t about a recongnition but military muscles to take revenge. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  12. Posted

    On 3/9/2024 at 1:04 PM, maakhiri1 said:

    Jeegaan will never let fair and free election 

    Jeegaan should stay around even if it’s means to rob votes, as they killed the social contract and trust Somaliland was based on it’s only fair they bury it as well.
     

    Kolay wee dileen, kafantiina ha u tolaan. 

  13. Posted

    12 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

     

    The best possible outcome is genuine reconciliation and agreement among all warring groups. This will be a difficult task that would require serious men who are sincere in their efforts. With enough pressure from the West and the realization on the elites' part, that they will lose everything might prompt a change in their behavior. This is the most hopeful outcome.

    Abiy is the biggest obstacle. Unfortunately, the West believes there is no clear alternative leader that can replace him. The Emirate money and Turkish/Chinese are what keep in power militarily.

    Other groups that will hinder any peace process include:

    1. Oromo PP, this is the group that surrounds Abiy. Their support for him is strong. This is due to the fact they are now occupying the admin centers of the government and military.  They are amazingly corrupt and are robbing the country blind.

    2. OLA. Abiy tried to coopt OLA with the promises of positions within the government. They flatly declined his offer. Their only interest is free Oromia. They are most active in Western Oromia and Borana regions. They ran most of the rural areas and moved as they wished. Abiy tried to suppress with regional forces, ENDF, and drones, but it is winning OLA more fans.

    3. Amhara: The Amhara are most aggrieved. They sincerely believe Abiy wouldn't have defeated TPLF without their sacrifice. Their grievances are not only with Abiy. They believe they have unfairly been blamed for everything that went wrong in Ethiopia since the days of Melenik, and as such, every new admin would hit them hard. The Amhara can be divided into three groups, the first group wants to oust Abiy and revive the centralized Ethiopia where they ran everything. The second group has given up on Ethiopia. They come to believe a separate homeland for Amhara is a must.  This group supports the Fano movement. The third group is within PP. They once believed they could change the government within, but that hope has faded and many are leaving PP, and with their departure, PP has essentially an Oromo party.

    4. Ethiopian army: The institution is not what used to be. It is highly dependent on conscripts and it is beginning to look an Oromo party. Most generals and colonels are Oromo. It is no longer a reflection of Ethiopia. More and more soldiers are defecting every day.

    5. Tigray; The peace process between Abiy and TPLF has not worked out well for Tigray. From TPLF's perspective, their lands are still in the enemy's hands. Aid is barely coming into Tigray. They appealed to the AU to help in implementing the Pretoria Agreement.  TPLF still has two hundred thousand armed forces. Abiy wants them to join the war, but so far, they have wisely decided not.

    6. Eritrea: Afwerki feels crossed. He believed in a centralized Ethiopia with no ethnic borders, but he made the mistake of trusting an Ethiopian leader. He was blinded by his hatred for TPLF. I believe he is no longer vested in one Ethiopia whose leaders he can manage.

    There are three possible ends. The first and most difficult is what I mentioned above, true peace among all parties with acceptable political settlement. The second is an apocalyptic end to this ailing empire, a war to end all wars where new countries will be born.

    The third is a new alliance among Highlanders and Eritrea that can overwhelm Abiy and exile or kill him. The Highlanders and Eritrea are politically savvy enough to put their differences aside in pursuit of a bigger goal. 

    I don’t think the west can sufficiently understand this sort of complexity and fluidity in order to play a constructive role. So option nr 1 seems highly unlikely to materialise, which leaves us option 2 or 3, a failed Ethiopia or an Ethiopia reconquered by highland Xabashas. But I don’t see how highlanders would reassert their influence in the current Addis overrun by Oromo’s, surrounded by Oromo’s, and with an Oromo military elites in power. 

  15. Posted

    4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    Any reasonable person knew this was not going to work. It had no legal basis and the alternative was war which Abiy knows he can't win.

    Even without any legality being there and ICJ striking down the agreement the second Somalia goes to the court, I fear that for the Somaliland regime this is outweigh by the the business prospectives of the deal and presenting a quick win for the electoral before the elections, irrelevant of the end result on its recognition.

  16. Posted

    I hope your right. 
     

    P.S. But having no trust whatsoever in the regime and it’s Ethiopian advisors, this well could be a deflection strategy of Ethiopia to make everyone think that they’re walking away from signing the MoU, while they then turn around and sign it in the coming time. See the above video with the Somaliland committee continuing its work in preparation of the deal. 

  17. Posted

    30 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    i doubt it  with out recognition ina bixii cant sell it to the people he will lose his head , 

     besides there is no benefit for Somaliland  recognition is valued more then anything  more then shares money or what ever concession one wants to give .

    Ethiopia once agains saves Somali unity  , by backing down from the MOU 

    From the perspective of politicians you would have been right, but from a businessman’s point of view, nothing is more important than a ‘mashruuc’. 

    ‘Somaliland oo sahamineysa goobtii ay Ethiopia saldhig ka dhigan lahayd’. 
     

     

  20. Posted

    Firdhiye: Waan la dagaalamaynaa Itoobiya haddii ay ciidan dul keento degaanada SSC- Khaatumo 

    Khamiis, Maarso, 7, 2024 (HOL) - Hoggaamiyaha maamulka SSC-Khaatumo, Cabdiqaadir Axmed Aw-cali Firdhiye ayaa uga digay dowladda Itoobiya inay soo faro galiso arrimaha gudaha ee degaanada maamulkiisa.

    Hoggaamiye Firdhiye oo maanta kumanaan shacab ah kula hadlayay fagaare kuyaala magaalada Laascaanood, ayaa sheegay inay jiraan warar sheegaya in ciidamo Itoobiyaan ah la dul keenayo degaanada SSC uu ka arrimiyo maamulkiisa.

    “Waxaanu aqbali karayno ma ahan, ma aqbalayno. Dadkayaga iyo dalkayaga annagaa ka masuul ah. In ciidamo kale la dulkeeno ama lasoo fara galiyo, ma aqbalayno, waana ka dagaalamaynaa,” ayuu yiri Hoggaamiyaha SSC- Khaatumo, Firdhiye.

    Firdhiye ayaa ugu baaqay dowladda federaalka Soomaaliya inay caddeyso mowqifkeeda Soomaalinimo. Wuxuu sheegay in looga baahan yahay in ay ka qeyb qaataan sidii dalka looga difaaci lahaa cid walba oo khatar ku ah midnimada dalka.

    Hoggaamiyaha SSC wuxuu ku amray ciidamadiisa inay heegan buuxda galaan, una diyaar daroobaan duulaan kaste oo kaga yimaada dhinaca Somaliland. 

     

  24. Posted

    4 hours ago, galbeedi said:

     

    Xaaji is a lunatic and there is no need to debate. He says 85% of the British land. East Sanaag is even bigger than the whole region of Sool and is out of the control of Somaliland. Badhan, Hadaaftimo, Dhahar, Laasqoray and east of Erigaabo is under Puntland or under Maakhir clan.

    Furthermore, I know where Xaaji is coming from and I am not worried about him. The end of Somaliland project is the end of perks and the crumbling of the lies of 35 years, and I don't blame him.

    I don't waste time with him, but I am watching the more dangerous man called Carafaat.

    He is trying to revive the dying project and the SSDF man Illyria is on board albeit in different ways. The bloody rebel are always in cahoots or work together. Anyway, Carafaat is a Waddani Party man with few distinctions from Kulmiye in terms of foreign policy. Even the old statesman C/qaadir Jirde is on board about the base and Ethiopian recognition plot. Mind you the GX are very hungry both for money and power, they have been crying for power for 31 years . With the weak leader Cirro flanked by Hirsi Gaab and Hargeisa oligarchs don't expect anything good. That is the message I am sending to people in Mogadishu. Waddani could be worst.

    I know the evil Kulmiye is always plotting and I heard lately that they want Rayaale to join their ranks. I don't know their intentions, but I heard they are combining a corrupt guy who sold every government building and land during Ahmed Siilaanyo time called Cali Mareexaan with Rayaale in order to destroy the Awdal State Movement project.

    Furthermore, the GX will boast as those who paid the most blood for the project and might even complicate things. DEsperate people are expected to do the unthinkable like Biixi just did,  and hungry people might even do worse than Biixi.

    So, Mr. Carafaat, stop this games and come to the table of unity and find new creative ways of ending this project.

     

     

    Galbeedi,

    You couldn’t be farther from the truth here.

    1) If your saying I am of the same clan lineage as some of those leaders in Kulmiye and Wadani, then yes as all Somalis belong to a clan family one way or the other. But it doesn’t mean my political thinking and ideas are forged by those from the same clan? No, first I hardly agree with their politics and thinking, and second I really don’t care about Kulmiye or Wadani. I see Wadani as an offspring Kulmiye gave birth to, and I expect them to be much like Kulmiye 2.0, given their politics and personalities.  The reason I have been vying for elections is because thats what they signed up for and agreed to with the electorate, and because I think the change of power is better then the dictatorial regime, the current regime is envisioning. 

    2) Thirdly, I am sure you understand where Xaaji Xunjuf is coming from as both of your thinking is very much based on the same core of zero sum clan thinking covered under the disguise of ‘Somalia and Unionism’(you) and ‘Somaliland and recognition’(XX), while I have not discovered in neither of your or XX thinking and writing a genuine ideological belief in those covers your potrating, but rather see only a naked form of ‘clan’ based political thinking, interest, ambitions and emotions, mostly ‘reactionary’ in nature and driven by ‘animosity’ to the ‘other’ supposed clan or group. 

    3)  I never believed in the typical Somali thinking and clan mentality of ‘destruction’ and ‘deconstruction’ of what was there in order to achieve one’s goal and to build something new. No sir, you work with what you have to construct. What does that mean in terms of achieving unity or state building, you ask? That we don’t need to burn down the few public offices, services and existing local social contracts in Borama and Hargeisa, in order to achieve unity or to forge a new political system. 

    4) On ending the ‘secessionist’ political project, I think those that have constructed the project are doing that already and hardly need any encouragement from anyone. Don’t be fooled by the public silence, for its only silence before the gathering storm and rapture. And they feel that too, and hence seeing everywhere ghosts and enemies out there to destroy them, but eventually it’s the own schizophrenia that brings it to an end. 

  25. Posted

    15 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Somali Prime Minister accuses Ethiopia of sabotaging Somalia-Somaliland talks


    Tuesday March 5, 2024

    Mogadishu (HOL) - Somali Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre has accused Ethiopia of being determined to undermine the Somali government's efforts to continue talks with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

    Speaking in Mogadishu on Tuesday, Barre stated that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in Addis Ababa on January 1 betrayed Somaliland and emphasized that the Somali government has shown great patience with Ethiopia.
     

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    "We have endeavoured to be patient as much as possible. Ethiopian troops are in our country, yet we haven't asked them to leave. Their ambassador remains here, and we haven't expelled him. Their planes continue to arrive, and we haven't barred them. We seek to maintain the interests of our people in harmony and good neighbourliness. We still hold hope that they will withdraw from the so-called MoU agreement," said the Prime Minister.

    Barre has called on Somaliland leaders to return to the negotiating table.

    In the last week of December last year, Somalia and the breakaway region of Somaliland agreed to resume dialogue to address outstanding issues after enduring political tensions and years of deadlock.

    The agreement, reached after two days of talks mediated by Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh, marked the first of its kind since 2020 when similar negotiations stalled.

    Following the Djibouti talks, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed invited Somaliland President Muse Bihi to Addis Ababa to sign a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on January 1, granting Ethiopia access to the sea.

    Somalia has stated that there is no room for mediation in the dispute with Ethiopia unless Addis Ababa cancels its controversial deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

    Somalia finally understands that Ethiopia was sabotaging the talks, as there was really a momentum for the talks last year.