Posts posted by galbeedi
THere is no need to blame this for Abiy Ahmed. I do believe that Musatafe Cagjar himself might have volunteered for this. Today, Mustafe Cagjar, yesterday Cabdi Iley, and in 1948 their ancestors joined Haile Salasie than remain with the British and get the independence together with other Somalis.
The Affar regional leader said he will use the fund to build a cultural place for their Suldaan
Thanks for your analysis and information.
I thought the Adwa thing was like 1 July or 26 June. If ethiopia can't not even agree to their national day, then they are in deep trouble. As you mentioned, it seems Abiy Ahmed must fully Oromize in order to rule. Ethiopia can't be stable unless the Amhara are reduced like a normal citizens. THey pushed for war and refused the peace between TPLF and Abiy, but the main issue is Amhara and their allies, the Guraghe control Addis city from business to culture and language.
. In Ethiopia the death of hundreds of thousands doesn't change much. In terms of dictating to others, it all depends the players and the attitude of Somali leaders. Two low level officers showed up in Garoowe and Hargeisa and the waring nomads stopped killing each other. If Somalis keep looking overlords to subdue other Somalis, the Ethiopian domination will continue.
Another issue is the actions of the Americans, especially the democratic party leadership. Traditionally they have huge fear of making mistakes in foreign policy. It was Hilary Clinton who delegated the decision to appoint Nuur Al maliki of Shite section than allow the inclusive Iyad Alawi who was Shia but had big support, which eventually created ISIS and the Sunni insurgency. It was Clinton who abandoned Somalia in 1994 and deputized Meles. Who knows, they might even convince Abiy to change his Somali unity attitude and return to the old policy.
It has been also a tradition to invite Ethiopia. In the modern times, it started in 1948 when the OG nomads decided to join emperor Haile Salasie and will continue unless we got different leaders. I agree with you that Ethiopia is weak to care for others, but the Somali nomads knows nothing else.
If you refuse to talk to your brother to resolve issues, you will be accorded to the justices of the stranger.
Reliable sources indicate that the American government had decided to transfer the Somali problems in the region to Ethiopia just like Bill Clinton did in 1994. I am not talking only the Laascaanod issue, but almost everything. The Laascaanood clashes kept going for two weeks with no meaningful negotiations until the Americans by way of Ethiopia entered the scene. With hundreds of deaths from both sides, two low level colonels from Ethiopia showed up and everyone jumped up. It was the SSC elders who clamored for outside powers to intervene, yet sometimes, you better be careful for what you wish.
The preliminary news coming from Addis Ababa indicate that the Laascaanood issues will be resolved in a way that is not desired by the players of the conflict. THose from SSC want Somaliland forces to vacate their tribal homeland up to Oog and later proclaim a regional state under the federal government. Somaliland want to pull the army in a near village and eventually resolve the Sool issue with Garaads by promising greater autonomy, but always under the umbrella of Somaliland government. None of the will get what they desire.
Well, you can't always get what you want.
The SSC Garaads would have better served if they have accepted a negotiation through Somalis, either by president Hassan Sheikh or elders. By accepting a foreign power to lead the negotiations, they opened the door for unknown results.
Reliable sources say the idea of a regional state for SSC is non starter for Ethiopia, Somaliland and even the international community. The Ethiopian government had decided that the main reason of the conflict and the resolutions of the Laascaaood issu rests with leadership of Muuse Biixi. They believe that the removal of Muuse Biixi whose term already ended four months ago could be the biggest solution of the problem. Abiy Ahmed has already a grudge against Biixi after the later refused to fulfil the unity promises he made in Addis few years with Farmaajo and Abiy. They believe that a new flexible leadership from Somaliland could be a recipe for the Laascaanood conflict and the future negotiations with Somalia.
Five or six different groups had traveled to Addis or are their way to reach there soon.
The SSC Garaads.
Speaker C/rashiid Khallif by of Jigjiga to Addis
Somaliland elders who went to Sool.
The Somaliland opposition leadership.
Ugaas C/rashiid of the Greater Awdal community both in Ethiopa/Djibouti and Somaliland.
Boqor Buurmadow and his people.
Finally, Biixi will join them. As I said the outcome of the coming Shir in Addis will be difficult to swallow for all involved. Most Somalis think of conflicts just an angry tribal skirmish that could be ignited without at any moment without thinking the consequences. Yet, after they create misery, death and destruction, they run to Addis or Nairobi to be baby sitted and given what they desired as a candy to children.
Here is the the tough pill to swallow for both.
For the SSC the Addis pill will very bad to swallow. Here is some:
First , the SSC will forget the so-called regional state. The guns will be silent, Somaliland will go some distance, the city will be calm and they will be waiting the outcome of the Somaliland internal change. In the meantime, there won't be any offensive from their side. The truth is after the early skirmishes, most of the offensive came from the SSC side to push back the Somaliland forces. The Ethiopians might send military observers to hold cease fire and the fragile peace. As soon as the guns became silent the booming business from Hargeisa, Bebera, Laascaanood and Garoowe will return.
Second , it will difficult to tell those young men who sacrificed a lot to accept the status quo. In this scenario, there could an uprising between the Garaads and the fighters who are mobilized throughout the region including Puntland. Joining Puntland isn't an option for most of SSC.
For Somaliland the poison pill is mostly directed to Biixi.
He will be forced to vacate the former house of Morgan. For many in Hargeisa leaving Sool and returning to Oog is a disaster that will finish off Somaliland for good and bring the war to Hargeisa. That scenario will be delayed for now , but Somaliland will not be the same. Top leadership of the Ethiopian government believe that the future economic development of the region depends infrastructure development, connections and trade in the Horn of Africa and will not accept a small tribe in the north to keep hostage of these future growth. Bebera, on the biggest ports in the region is empty. One might even ask, why the Emirates keep holding this huge port while doing some developments?. If there is no major international trade coming here, why hold it? I think they want to keep these ports for themselves while destabilizing others like Aden in Yemen.
So, asoon as the leadership changes in Somaliland the negotiations with the south will begin in earnest. And that consolation will keep SSC to stay with this project. Remember, most of the demands of Khaatumo, especially from the camp of late leader Cali Khalif were to stay with Somalia and develop a credible system in Somaliland.
In conclusion, the guns will be silent, Somaliland will keep away from Laascaaood, Biixi will disappear from the scene, but there won't be any SSC regional government, but a city will be waiting changes from different powers in the region including HSN and Hamza( Sheikh Cumar and Sheikh Shakir).
This conflict is full of propaganda on both sides.
The city of Laascaanood is spread out. Most of the damages took place in the east and west. Real fighting took place about 8 days in two weeks, yet caravans are heading to Ethiopia. Displaces people could be cared in Puntland and come back as soon as the guns become silent. Some among SSC are using these displaced people as Propaganda to get the UN atension.
It is easy to mislead helpless people. Even if they got refugee cards, it takes more than ten years to get any chance of migrating abroad. THe useless Youtubers keep inciting war. Soon the war will end and these communities will live side by side.
If these trend continues Sool will be empty of people.
This is fishy.
I don't think two weeks of war could produce 40,000 people. That is almost 50% of the population of the city. Besides, Garoowe is at stones throw from Laascaanood, why travel all the way to DDS?
The lady mentioned about the Jesus and G..si communities being registered . Those communities left the Oromo and Affar lands and comes to DDS as refugees, but they are based in Siti region and Harowo which are far away from the Sool border.
This war has many players including Biixi who is mixing it up with Hargeisa politics.
The youth are the victims as usual
After all the dead and shelling, nothing will be the same.
Baala Xoofto, forget about Laascaanood and let us save Hargeisa from the incoming mess.
If the leader of Somaliland was Cirro or Rayaale, the Garaad community could have stayed with Somaliland.1 minute ago, baala xoofto said:
n my opinion, this is a good start for peace talks. The misunderstanding can be settled.
If your buddy Muuse just vacated the city and kept the army 30 km from the city and had given the Garaads breathing space ,no one would have died and things could have been different.
I have seen the big police stations, the governor's office with big rooms and furniture and computers. Certainly Somaliland had spent a lot in Laascaanood .In Awdal the governor uses hotels or city council offices, because Cali Mareexaan sold the British built state house. Milionis were spent in Sool to bribe with bad results at the end.
16 hours ago, Tillamook said:
sanity will once again reign supreme in all of northern Somalia, and all northerners can once again work towards building a strong and unified Federal Somali Republic.
We all hope sanity.16 hours ago, Tillamook said:
Awdal’s political future will always be intertwined with the rest of north Somalia
That is what the supermajority of the locals believe. But we the diaspora are totally different. After Muuse,Somaliland should be reformed and re-energized.
We have to get rid of Muuse first and try to create something different. The original Somaliland supposed to be a loosely managed clan federation. Regions supposed to elect their governors and locals to administer their affaires. What we got know is the most centralized system in the world, the worst communist politburo was much better than this.
THe police chief is from another region, the governor represents the Hargeisa based president with zero administrative offices in the province. THe same goes with those in SAnaag ot togdheer. You can't build ports or roads since all taxes go to Hargeisa.
Imagine you are begging another hostile clan for developments. THey consider your growth a threat. No matter who comes to power, the system must be changed.
When I say Hargeisa I don't mean the regime, but those who formerly based their like Garaad Jaamac Garaad Ismaciil. Somaliland is a threat that is almost eliminated or watched carefully due to the war, but Puntland based politicians didn't ditch yet the idea of greater Puntland.
THere are conferences and Zoom meetings in the diaspora for the last few days.
If Khaatumo could generate this kind of support Awdal could gain support from almost all Somalis. THere are some in HAG who fear a new D block state and others who might have some minor grudges against the H...rt, but an Awdal uprising will be supports universally by Somalis9 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:
ery similar situation with Sool, the secessionists have been sucking dry with no developments
EVery person that crosses from Lawyacado has to pay $32 dollars. The coastal region is blocked, we can't build ports or roads. They have blockaded us economically for 30 years. THe injustice in Awdal is ten times bigger than SSC.
Unlike SSC, we don;t have a buffer zone or a safe place to organize. we in triangle of Djibouti, DDS and Somaliland. Also, unlike SSC we have been disarmed 30 years ago. Somaliland paid the Khaatumo militia and allowed them to have their guns.
5 hours ago, Illyria said:
Are you seriously thinking he'll return to Hargeysa after that interview?
off course he will return.
What could Biixi do? arrest the speaker who disagreed with him. It will be another huge headline if goes to jail. Muuse is politically dead by now. The only thing left for him is to save his family from sanctions and more condemnation.
And one more thing, I do believe that the leadership of the new SSC/Khaatumo will be dominated by those who are based in Hargeisa or not allied with Puntland. Of course Puntland supports the independent aspirations of the Garaad community, but the idea of future annexation didn't disappear yet.
23 minutes ago, Illyria said:
Sod this sap. All he is doing is salvage his political career, if ever he had one.
I think he is doing a good job. He burred Muuse Biixi to the dark pages of history. He blamed everything on Biixi. He will come back to Hargeisa and finish him off for good.His mission is more deadlier than the bullet, and his opposition party Waddani is probably coordinating with them.
The SSC not only defeated the Muuse Biixi, but indirectly helped the hapless opposition who were defeated both physically and politically few months ago.
With the Darwiish castles logo in the letterhead, the Khaatumo consultative committee is really well organized and professional compared to the 32 years old Jamuuriyad.
THeir message hasn't changed since day one. I think the Laascaanood resistance has won a great victory altrady. Furthermore, Abukar Baalle, the Somali UN envoy has put a dagger on Somaliland.
He visited our town from New York few years ago, and when he finished his speech, jokingly, I told a friend from Mogadishu that this guy was the first well qualified and educated speaker from that part of the country.
Soon we will see the faces of the Biixi kids who torture people in Hargeisa, especially women. Some for having blue flag in their bed, others for visiting MOgadishu or just bad mouthed the dear leader. If there is a sanction list, then police chief Dabagale must be on the top of the list. This is the man who shoots civilian to kill and claims that they were responding stones thrown to police.
Also Caateeye, the young defence minister sent by Omar Geelle should be on the list. Ciidanku gacan Bir ah ayey ku qabanayaan waa hadaladiisa.
We are still waiting the facts, but a great tragedy has taken place in Mogadishu today. Unverified reports say 14 members of the forces ( don't know yet if they were Macasley or regular troops) fighting Al-shbaab who have been nursing from the wounds they sustained in Hiiraan fighting, were killed by Al-shbaab in a safe house in Abdulaziiz district.
Does anyone heard about that tragedy?
This HSM guy is either will go big or bust. Nothing in between.
2 minutes ago, baala xoofto said:
This strategy coupled with the Olive branch on the other hand has taken all the oxygen from the anti-peace elements
Then why a full attack today?
In fact, today's war was the heaviest ever. Before there were skirmishes and shelling, but today, close to a brigade from Somaliland attacked Laascaanood to take over the city and overwhelm the defenders. It was a real war with Ak47 and machine with thousands of men participating ( Gacan baa la isla tagay dagaalka maanta). Muuse Biixi wanted to crush the Laascaanood resistance and occupy the city before the visit of the American ambassador to Hargeisa and claim to be fighting terrorists.
Reliable sources say that the Somaliland forces have been repulsed and defeated with heavy loses. I have been told that the Garaad community members from Puntland BSF who left Boosaaso and others who were formerly trained with Danab forces who have higher fighting experience than the usual militia had inflicted the biggest damage to Somaliland.
More than anything Somaliland lost the messaging and the reason they are fighting in Sool. The message of the Laascaanood people is simple, relatable and understandable. They say," We are caucusing to decide for our future; we will negotiate when the gun on our head (Somaliland forces) are removed from our town".
And what Somaliland say. "Laascaanood people are Somaliland but they have been taken over by terrorists; we will resolve the issue with negotiations but we have to shell the town to defend the forces; we are sent elders yesterday, but today will not leave the city". It is confusing and misleading. No wonder the whole Somali world is siding with Laascaanood.
The heavy coverage of the Laascaanood conflict seem to be subsiding these days with no major movements fron the fronts. While we mainly cover the Laascaanod side of the conflict due to the unjust bombardment of Somalialand forces to the civilian infrastructure, it is important to hear from the other side. By that, I don't mean talking to the unhinged and out of touch guys like our own Oodweyne and Xaaji Xanjuf types . but others who are more or less neutral and always side to the peace due to stakes they have in Somaliland,
So, I did talk to a guy who hails originally from Awdal, but born and raised in Hargeisa. He had relocated from the diaspora, built a house and moved his family back home. So, I asked him both the conflict, Hargeisa politics and the future according to his personal experience.
Galbeedi: What did you hear from Somaliland about the war in Laascaanood these days since you have extensive family connection in Hargeisa and beyond?
Somaliland Guy: We are at the end of the conflict and within days things will get quiet.
Galbeedi: What makes you think like that? today was the 14th day of the war and the guns are still roaring from both sides.
Somaliland guy: Somaliland might claim this to be a war between the state and Reer Sool, but as most Somali conflicts had shown, it just another clan conflict, and these kinds of wars last mostly four to six weeks maximum. By now the Sool forces might have dwindling stocks of ammunition and soon they might run out of bullets. Furthermore, for the last decades, most Somali conflicts conclude in a stalemate. No one is defeated completely which is the main reason national governments failed to take real shape of governing.
Galbeedi: Most people believe that the only way this war will end could be the relocation of the forces from Laascaanood especially the Somaliland forces.
S.Guy: Despite the importance of the Laascaanood conflict, no major war has taken place so far. Sooner or later these forces will move away from each other, but it all depends about the actions of Garaad community forces who are loyal to Somaliland.
Galbeedi: I thought everyone said that most of the Garaad community forces allied with Somaliland had already moves and joined the local forces.
S.Guy: No, that is not totally true. THere are still well armed Garaad community forces led by colonel Mahad Cambaashe and others who are not involved in the shelling of the city, but who are in stand by mood at the moment. Everyone knows that he has the most mechanized units among Somaliland forces in the area.
Galbeedi: what do you mean by stand by? are they waiting orders?
S.Guy: No, unlike many people, there is no major confrontations now. The locals try to push the Somaliland forces away as much as possible, yet despite some movements in Some fronts, everyone is around Laascaanood. Colonel Camaashe is waiting how the political moves take place and like everyone he is " Wait and see mood". So, he isn't risking much and he sees the Somaliland side as only defending themselves. What we are hearing from people in Hargeisa is that Somaliland hasn't used its power so far including its allies in Sool.
Galbeedi: So, what is the next move? We have seen Muuse Biixi is in disarray by issuing false and conflicting statements?
S.Guy: He doesn't have the ears of the Garaads in Laascaanood, and the ministers he sent to Laascaanood had failed to resolve anything. It is the speaker of the parliament who is talking to the Garaads and he is sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi in order to score political points. Furthermore, Biixi closed the doors of the elders five years ago and they both don't trust each other.
Galbeedi: Do the elders had the capacity to resolve the issue a this moment after the destruction of the city and the bad blood between the two?
S.Guy: The Somaliland elders had been sidelined by Muuse for a long time, and the only things these guys have mastered is how to milk cash from the government. They will create an enterprise that will feed both elders from Laascaanood and Hargeisa, they understand each other more than we think and the issue is moving to the elders and the back and forth will continue. At the end the Somaliland forces will move away from the city by some distance , we don't know how many kilometers, or permanently move to Adhicadeeye.
Galbeedi: After the relocation, what could be next?
S.Guy: Well, It will be like any other frozen conflict in the region. The recriminations and the squabbling will move to Laascaanood and Hargeisa. The Sool community will face each other for good and no one knows how their debate will take shape. But the bigger debate will take place in Hargeisa.
Galbeedi: Is the opposition demanding elections as usual?
S.Guy: Waddani is trying to ride the Laascaanood conflict, but they had already failed big time and the more these things go on, Biixi will stay and make sure both WAddani and UCID are two parties among the dozen.
Galbeedi: Personally, I think Waddani has gained some respect in Sool region and other places by being alternative to Biixi in war and peace.
S.Guy: This Cirro guy is always one day late and short one dollar. As soon as the uprising of the city begun, he could have jumped and landed in Laascaanood to reassure people and become the point man by sidelining Biixi and taking charge of the issues, but as usual, he was weak and went hiding. Finally, when he saw the statements of the Americans and international community he decided to come forward and ask few guys (Mohamed Abiib, Ina Galaal, Barkhad Batuun) to make strong statements. He could aggravate the issue as much as he wants, but the three-party election is finished. The first election will be among all parties.
Galbeedi: So , did you the tensions going high in Hargeisa?
S.Guy: nothing will be the same after Laascaanood. This whole project has to be re-evaluated totally. Hargeisa seems to be how Mogadishu was in 1988. The corruption is out of bounds, the wrong doing, the injustice, the looting, the clan animosity, the greed has surpassed any limits. The decent people stay away from the government, and only the losers, the swindlers and the worst among society join the government. The millionaire guy who isn't hungry is selling expired medicine, yet he is ahead of you at first line in the Masjid. Furthermore, no one trusts anyone. The good news is still there are some good people in Somaliland who might repair the ship.
Galbeedi: Do you see any elections taking place?
S.Guy: No at the moment. In this kind of environment elections will create instablity in Somaliland. The opposition is so hungry and in the recent Somali politics, tribes do not give way to others but keep them down until the end. Some will tell you that many projects, including the Somaliland one, will probably end thanks to the demise of TPLF. With the incoming econmic integration of the horn, it will be difficult to sustain isolation.
Galbeedi: Did you see any nig moves from the region lately?
S.Guy: The Abiy Ahmed led integration was stalled by the Ethiopian war and by Kenya which had misgivings about Ethiopia. Now Eritrea, Kenya and Ethiopia are the same page. HSM has no choice but to join, and Djibouti couldn't stop the train.
Galbeedi: Did you see HSM winning the war against Al-Shbaab?
S.Guy: No. HSM waging war against Al-shbaab is false. After the invasion of Al-shbaab from south west , Ethiopia had realized that these forces havd crossed from Hiiraan and posed a direct threat for the first time. THey called Laftagaren and the governor of Hiiraan, not the Hir-Shabeelle leader. They decided to eliminate the threat from Hiiraan and tapped Cali Jayte and Sanbloolshe to lead the effort. It is an Ethiopian ptoject which asked the Americans for air cover to clear the border area. The munitions were provided by Ethiopia and soon will end. Furthermore, I don't believe that the southern elites don't understand or are willing to pay the sacrifices to build state which is much bigger than money or personal gain. He got 5,000 men from Eritrea, yet he decided to arm clans and that tells me everything.
Galbeedi: I see, but they had made some success so far, don't you think?
S.Guy: Time will tell, but judging the way things are moving, we will be talking about Hiiraan the same time next year. Also, here we are talking about one clan waging war and taking credit while a large number of other clans Hiiraan are either on the fence or fighting with Al-shbaab. Here I see one clan thinking they are Hiiraan and that will end in disaster. Furthermore, that clan will be working soon to separate Hiiraan from Hir-shabeele peobably insitigated by none other than Sanbloolshe.
Let us leave it there.
9 hours ago, Illyria said:
A beggar bagger playing pretence repartee to perforate the psyche of the bamboozled public in the triangle,
I need a dictioinary for that to fully grasp.
Anyway, Is lying becoming normal among Somaliland leaders. Is this general serious or has some medical condition?
In 2002, then president Rayaale tried to visit Laascaanood which was politically under Puntland. He was fired uopn and he left in haste. In 2007, Xaabsade and Cali Sandulle , who left Hargeisa with Garaad C/qani in 1997 and held estabilsh Puntland came and handed Laascaanood to Rayaale without bullets being fired.
"Kulaha dagaal ka dib ayey Laascaanood gacanta Somaliland ku soo noqotay" It has never been in Somaliland before. Waar ninku been badanaa.
That is a powerful answer to the useless talks of the likes of Ina Cali Koore. As i said many times, there are millions of Somalis who rather be in the vast Somali ocean than being a big fish in a small pound which many in Somaliland failed to grasp.
My Puntland friend is in the diaspora just like me sucking Latte, and among the Puntlanders I met, he is more of right wing than left in terms his thinkinf.
Having said that you really raised two very good points. One is the deep state in Puntland: Isimada, traders and the people are on board and no leader could derail their support. The other one is:1 hour ago, Illyria said:
The most viable option for SSC is that of a provisional Federal State similar to those satellite admins in Jawhar & Beledweyn. Short of that is unacceptable. GalMudug, carved out of S Mudug is a State for a reason, and so is Delaware.
If Hirshabele whose leader resides in Mogadishu with almost zero institutions other than armed militia could pull off a provisional state in name only so does Khaatumo.
I think the main takeaway from him is that the next KHaatumo should avoid those who have the political thinking of the late Ali Khaliif, may Allah bless his soul. Blessing of the PUntland leadership is crucial in the short term.
Today I want to address the political reality of the Laascaanood uprising. According to Puntland analysts, after the dust settles, the political issues surrounding Khatumo could be more difficult than the war itself. To gage the other side of the KHaatumo Vs Somaliland conflict, I had a long discussion with a gentleman from Puntland.
While the overwhelming public or I should say almost everyone in Puntland supports the Khaatumo uprising in Laascaanood, The political elite sees things differently. according to Puntland political insiders, there are big gabs in terms of the end goal. So, to gage the thinking of the Puntland political class, I had to sit down to this guy and hear it from the horse's mouth.
Galbeedi: We all know the Laascaanood uprising had united the Garaad community, but let us discuss where it is heading after guns become silent?
Puntland Guy: THere is a difficult road ahead, one that is more difficult than the current war. I am talking about what kind of political form will Khaatumo establish after the war.
Galbeedi: If they form their own provisional administration, get Defacto recognition from the federal government just like the early stages of Galmudug circa 2011-2012, wouldn't that be enough for starters?
Puntland Guy: The federal government under president Hassan Sheikh will not recognize Khaatumo. The first HSM regime in 2012, refused to recognize Jubbaland despite Ahmed Madoobe controlling KIsmaayo and surrounding area with no significant opposition. He relented and accepted due to trhe huge pressure Puntland and others put HSM including protests while he was visiting USA. THat is when HSM started the Galmudug state project. Besides, HSM has to organize Galmudug due to his close association with that community and to avoid pressure and clashes in Mogadishu and central Somalia. But Khaatumo isn't Galmudug.
Galbeedi: Is it possible to apply the same pressure to HSM in order to recognize Khaatumo?
Puntland Guy: No. That is out of the question. HSM is a tribally minded leader and for him recognizing Khaatumo means welcoming another H..ti or D block region which no no in his book. If the pressure becomes unbearable the best, he could do is allow Khaatumo under Puntland sphere. In Mogadishu, there is a code of policy to sideline Puntlanders and enhance the JUbbland branch of the D block.
Galbeedi: Are the Khaatumo guys willing to be under the protection of Puntland politically to have their own Maamul?
Puntland Guy: Even if Somaliland leaves the area and projects its security forces far away from Laascaanood, they will face uncertainty. If you remember, the Galmudug of president Caalin controlled a district of Baraxley in Gaalkacayo, but president Faroole made them full partners by inviting them the Garoowe 1 and 2 despite their weakness and lack of territory. It was a political move. So, for Khaatumo to survive in the next difficult stage they must come under the Puntland wings and cover. They could access the foreign donor share through Garoowe and so on. But if they believe the fairy tale of the Somali government and became antagonistic to Puntland they will suffer.
Galbeedi: I am sensing that you don't have a faith of Khaatumo standing by itself without leaning to no one? Isn't that the typical Puntland political goal of swallowing that region.
Puntland Guy: Not at all. There are many people who are bi-lingual in Khaatumo ( Here he doesn't mean about speaking French Ala Canada parlance) and Behind the public uprising there is a deep tension. There is a group among Khaatumo that got rich through Somaliland either with business connections or political patronage and that group isn't fully on board yet.
Galbeedi: There is tension in every region and community today. What is your biggest fear?
Puntland Guy: My biggest fear is clashes among them. They must avoid that in order to survive at this difficult time. Also, they must avoid the rise of a warlord among the uprising and the community. Puntland, despite its internal problems had avoided a warlord to rise in their regions. Today February 15, as we speak, I have seen a video clip of a would-be warlord claiming to be in charge.
Galbeedi: who are you referring to?
Puntland Guy: He is the Qat trader guy called Mohamed Djibuutaawi. Today he publicly said he is in charge and was sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi. He might have some money and militia, but he has no capacity to sort these problems. As I said the next two years will be tough and since there is no recognition coming from the federal government, they better establish a good relationship with Puntland. Also, Hargeisa, not the Maamul, but the city itself, is captivating and many people from Puntland and Garaad community go there for big city life which isn't possible in Garoowe or Boosaaso. Furthermore, it is expensive to maintain the life style of the KHaatumo elite.
Galbeedi: Don't you see that 2023 is a different era? . People had paid for the ultimate price and this project and the stakes are higher than usual?
Puntlanf Guy: Of course, they have no choice but to fight, but they have to see now the rough road ahead.
Galbeedi: What could Somaliland do to sideline or damage the Khaatumo project?
PUntland Guy: Everyone knows that Somaliland will lose any war no matter what, but their strength is political mechanizations and balkanizing the Khaatumo.
Well folks those are the main points.
As we speak, Muuse is sending finally the elders from Somaliland. The meeting will happen in OOg if Khaatumo Garaads accept it. It looks that these elders will be cover for Muuse to accept the order of the international community. The elders will recomend the relocation of the forces which is the minimum Khaatumo will accept. Finally, the guns might become silent.
15 hours ago, AhmedGuled said:
f Djibouti (With American/UK help) destroy Somaliland that would be a surprised I didn't see coming. LOL
Wrong. The British help a lot to Somaliland including training the RRU that shoots civilians who are protesting.35 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:
galbeedi by the way the gabay belongs to qamaan bulxan and not raaage just a correction
Thanks for the correction.
There is a video clip, I might locate some day. Discussing the Berbera corridor which could get some of Ethiopian trade to SomalilandOmar Geelle said, " there is 240 KM between Bebera and Wajaale and it will cost $400 million dollars, how you get that money". It isn't only about competition, but also trade and development of Somaliland itself which could reduce poverty.
Raage Ugaas, the great Somali poet of late 19th century and early 20th century said:
Baahida nin baa jira
Kula daydayaayo daalna ka badane
Aanse Doonahayn in hesho
Dadkuna moodi Duur wadasho
Wax ukala dahsoonayne.
The Reer Mudug know only one type of war, the fist fight, but the coastal communities or those with deep cultural civilizations fight in eleven different ways. Muuse Biixi is a deraged former Soldier who want to be a king in HArgeisa where every man is his own Suldaan. He not only misjudge the north, but the Somali people in general. In Hargeisa, they already call him " Muuse Handraab" the man who closed the gates.
He is trying to be the same league with Omar Geelle, the former " Vice police squad" member, who became intelligence director and killed people for a living. HE brought both the Chinese and the Americans in the same house, but when the Americans ploted to move to Berbera for a change, Geelle struck and destablized both Berbera and Somaliland indirectly. Americans leaving Djibouti means many things. Knowing the coming cold war with China, the Americans might destablize the whole island than allowing the Chinese to share with them.
Rather than tell Biixi to accept peace and withdraw from Laascaanood, he told him to fight to the death while sending false signals to the region as the man mediating the parties. AS such, the Americans had cancelled the African militery exsesise in Berbera and moved to Kenya. No body want to come to a war zone. Geelle, the double agent had scored against Somaliland again. Bebera has always been his target .
Now, how about the leader of the elder counsil of Mogadishu HSM?
A deadly war is been fought in Somalia and he is double talking like an elder who is paid from different accounts. How brain dead is Somalia that the leader of the country is hidding from his responsibility to save lives and bring peace. Why you are entertaining and laughing with Muuse Biixi in Djibouti if you can't call him when things are tough.Furthermore, he is traveling as usual while the UN and Human Right organizations are demanding a resolution for the conflict. We all know how weak the Somali government is since 1991, but one might think that the so called president would use his little legitimacy for leverage to pull people to his direction. If he keeps in this road, he might go down with Gelle who is in his last days.
The UN must take its responsibilities seriously and take charge of the issue since Somalia has a president who is in charge MOgadishu and the surrounding towns only.
2 hours ago, AhmedGuled said:
Such a missed opportunity to take full control of Somalia now we have to contend with a never ending civil war
Countless people including former UN envoy Mohamed Sahnoun told them in 1993 to declare the government of Somalia. The Maakhiri delegates from Sanaag in 1991 at the Burco Shir told how illogic is have to two Somali governments in Africa in these difficult times. Some of those men were former diplomats and expereinced beraucrats. Finally, they even told them, " Let us declare we are the real Somali state and put up the blue flag. With the Mogadishu mess Puntland would have joined and the world would have recognized the Hargeisa government.
To rule Somalia you must have confedence and the vission. The men of SNM had a village mentality. Ruling over few pounds in the Somali sea was enough for the angry men of SNM.. Go and research, even A/raxman Tuur told them how illogic it was to declare session . Today players are the same villegers who opposed the logic.
Baardheere Italian Built bridge collapsed
Baardheere Bridge was built decades ago. The Somaliland bridge was completed just six months ago with millions of dollars from the Somaliland development Fund. Someone stole the money and built a shady bridge.