A conversation with an eye witness who just came from Mogadishu.

[galbeedi]

An Acquaintance of mine who is a small trader just came from Mogadishu this week. Some of you, Somalia online residents have traveled back home for a different reasons for the last few years, but those of us , arm chair analysts who rarely travel to Somalia are always looking to find credible information through people from different walks of life.

 

As usual, I begun my questions about President Farmaajo and the new government.

 

Galbeedi: what is the main different between Hassan Sheikh and the new government?

 

Eye witness: The biggest and the most important difference is the Somali people around the country want their government to succeed this time around. Also, the big events that is taking place around the world is having huge effects the way Somalis see the nation state. Many people inside and out Mogadishu have realized that having a functioning government means survival of the Somalis in this region and around the world.

 

G: That is really a good assessment of the people in general both at home and the diaspora, but in terms of policy and substance , what does the government should do to improve the security of situation in Mogadishu at the moment?

 

Eye W: Well, in our conversation you keep mentioning the first one hundred days or so, my friend that so called one hundred days are a barometer for the established western countries, but the government was just approved in late March which is not even a month, so if I were you, I would wait at least foe six months and judge them after the end of two years.

 

G: forget about the one hundred days , what is the major steps that the government should do in order to improve security?.

 

Eye W: First of all , I am from Mogadishu, and unlike many people from the diaspora, I had the advantage of frequenting both the major hotels were politicians and the elite congregation and the average people coffee shops. I did spend $2 for coffee in major hotels and 5c in street tea market. In order to improve security both the intelligence service and the army must be reformed and reorganized.

 

The biggest threat to security in the Capital is the Mogadishu based Somali army. As soon as the sun goes down , most of the robberies in the city is committed by them. After the inauguration of the president, they were ordered to stay in their barracks and in those days most people felt the safe. Many of them are former gangs or criminals who chew "Qat" daily or abuse other substances. If they are ordered to leave the city and deployed to outside regions they just disappear or even refuse to take the order to be deployed outside Mogadishu.

 

G: If that is the case for the so called military that had been trained for the last four years, what is the solution? also, Do you have any idea how much is their numbers?.

 

Eye W: I do not know for sure, but the estimates I heard is about seven to eight thousand soldiers. Since 2004, soldiers were trained by different groups and countries, many were decent men who were willing to make a career in the army, but after many months without pay they just left , sold their guns or became a part time soldier. These soldiers must be reorganized, but at the same time , you can not have people to sacrifice their lives for the country and do not pay them any salaries for months.

 

G: How about the idea of recruiting the regional government soldiers and incorporate the as national army?.

Eye W: I do not believe the tribal militias from the regions or the Mogadishu based soldiers to be very effective national army. I would prefer that the soldiers must be recruited from the regions as individual citizens who should join the army by their own voluntary Like the old times( " Ha la yidhaahdo yaa doonayo in uu ciidan qaran noqdo, islamarkaana laga soo qoro gobolada iyo degmooyinka , la isku dhex daro ka dibna la wada tababaro").

 

G: You have been going to Mogadishu since 2012 back and forth, what is the major difference this time ?

 

Eye W: in 2012, a cannon was flying over my head when I try to travel from point A to B, now, you rarely see any artillery or cannons at night. The most dangerous issue in this time is targeted killings and assassinations. A businessman may lose his market share in competition, then he goes around and wants to eliminate his rivals by hiring a hit and run squad; the same thing goes to an NGO contract that went to someone else and other criminal connected killings. There are young kids who use drugs or other illegal substances, and they could be hired just for $50 dollar . Usually the criminals take them in a car and tell him to shoot that person ,then after killing the victim, jump in a parked car and disappear. The most dangerous part is someone is attaching a bomb with magnets in your car and " BUM" it goes off without anyone knowing where it came from.

 

If the intelligence community is knowledgeable or prepared they could easily distinguish the difference between these assassinations. The murder of intellectuals, Islamic scholars and former officers are definitely committed by the Ethiopian intelligence and others.

 

G: Since there are no military operations or no more standing army of Al-shabaab to confront in the capital, to me it seems the issues is about intelligence , information gathering and infiltration of these cells who carry this killings. So tell me about the capabilities of the intelligence service.

 

Eye W: most of the intelligence members are former Al-shabaab members who were hired to help defeat their old friends. They do not smoke or chew "Qat" and they preform their duties well compared to the other who are corrupt and usually accused of extortion. Yet, the former Al-shabaab guys could not be fully trusted. They are either give a pass to their friends and family members or do not want to be proactive before crimes take place.

 

G: Since 2011, over 140 members of the intelligence community were killed by Al-shabaab or others. Some were killed in a day light going to work, in front of their houses or at the vicinity of their headquarters. To me, it seems these people are not under cover agents preforming their intelligence duties in covert manner, so rather than intercept killers, they are becoming victims that need to be protected. Have you seen or heard any new ways of doing things?.

 

Eye W: It is too early to notice any thing right now , but their are dozens of different group both foreign and domestic people rooming this city and if you try to sweep them in bulldozer , their heavy weight will crush on you, so these hazard problems need to be lifted one at the time.

 

G: look, the new leadership took over from a government who for better or worse did something and pushed the state caravan to certain distances, so don't you agree that Farmaajo is not starting from zero?

 

Eye W: Hassan Sheikh has implemented well the things that he felt would help him or re-election, the army he created are not reliable and he took away the rights of millions of people in Mogadishu. Can you imagine KM12 just in the outskirt of the city is controlled by Shariif Hassan, same goes with south of Jazeera beach. He sold the people of Mogadishu in order to win the election and gain votes from Puntland and South west. The land around the airport which was cleared by Mohamuud Nur Tarzan at the expense of others were given to business people by Hassan Sheikh.

 

G: It seems our guest is throwing the former president under the bus by erasing every thing he has done. He did say earlier that there are no more cannons in the city like 2012, yet he seems , he is willing to be very patient to the new leadership , anyway , let us continue. Waxa uu leeyahay , " waa baa beryey Bilisan"

 

G: tell me about life and people in the capital.

 

Eye W: To my estimate and many others, the population of the city is between 4.5 to five million people. The notion that the Somali population around ten million is absolutely false. The number of Somalis in the Horn of Africa and around the world is about 30 million Somalis, and about 20 million are in the republic.

 

G: Wait a minute, are you saying Mogadishu with it's crumbling infrastructure and other issue like water, electricity and housing is home to over four million people?

 

Eye W: when was the last time you were in Mogadishu?

G: I guess, about 1989.

 

Eye W: well the Medino district alone is home to a million people. The density of the population and homes is huge in every district. Also, you have about 800,000 internally displaced people within the outlying area of the city who relies food rations from the U.N agencies.

 

G: What can I say? although I have never asked anyone lately about the population estimates of the capital, 4.5 million is like stretching or exaggeration.

 

Eye W: You probably talked to the diaspora members who live in what people call the green zone, major hotels and power centers , but everyone else who travels within the public would see what I am referring to.

 

G: OK , fair enough. How about the cost of living?, and how these millions of citizens in Mogadishu earn their living?.

 

Eye W: Other than those who work for the government or government related businesses , almost everyone is self employed. Some have small shops, others are shops by themselves by carrying products in their backs, and so forth. It is the old traditional ways of Somalis enterprising, dealing and wheeling to make a buck. In other words, everyone is a businessman including the murder for hire kids and the mules carrying the bombs.

 

The cost of living varies in which part of the city you leave or your life style. If you are paid $10,000 a month working for NGO's or other foreign connected contractors, a thousand dollars a month could be the average to live in that neighborhood, but the poor hard working people are able to survive for one hundred dollars a month. A man who was guarding my home was paid hundred dollars a month while eating with the family. Through the telephone transactions he used to send 2 dollars a day to his family and it did cover the basic things. I did also travel to Hargeisa and Puntland, and I realized that the more you go deep south the less inflation you encounter. Hargeisa is the most expensive place right now and Kismaayo is the cheapest, and the towns between Kismaayo and Mogadishu , especially lower shabbelle has the least inflation.

 

G: So, in order to feed and supply that huge population of the capital and surrounding area, the port of Mogadishu must be busy and hectic.

 

Eye W: Of course. There are two or three major ships docking the port almost every week.

 

G: That means the government should be earning large revenue. Do you have any estimate?

 

Eye W: Last I hear was six million a month, but that was few years ago and it could hit ten million a month if managed correctly. I heard the Saudis will be contributing to the national budget monthly, so does the Turks. I do believe if they manage all this they could implement their programs.

 

 

Any way while asking questions, I was also debating with him on some of the issues which were new news to me. The idea of Mogadishu having over four million people was something I considered a stretch. Is there anyone who could corroborator this information?.

 

I did also believe that the issues of intelligence, detective work and information gathering could be resolved by a modern and trained work force that follows well established criteria of conducting clandestine work. These people are not interior ministry workers or police, but under cover agents. Their place of work must be in a non descriptive building some where in the capital; their identity must be protected, and just like the national army, they must be recruited from around the country. If Somalia was a police state, this c kind of work could have been easily taken care off, but since we are plural democracy and representative government, you need a highly trained and loyal people to conduct the national intelligence issue. You can not rely to former Al-shabaab members and local guys who have multiple conflict of interest.

 

Finally, if this city is home to even three million people , then the work ahead is tough.

 

Oh, before I sign out he also told me that the Bay region people are probably the largest community in Somalia . When I asked him , how so?, he said, " if you go every town in the country you will find them. They have shops in Borama; they are the largest community in mony Puntland cities of Gaalkacayo and Boosaaso.", he continued , " In Mogadishu and south , they have large communities. When I was flying to Berbers , i met four of them conversing with " May" and I did talk to one of them. To my surprise , he said he was heading to Buuhoodle town in Togdheer region".

 

Markaan Idhi waar dadkass sideed u dhex gasheen ?, waxa uu yidhi dukaano ayaan ku leenahay, Gabdhana waan ka guursanay. Isn't that beautiful.

[maakhiri1]

Waw, thanks for sharing.

 

I would say 2.5 million Max, possible, and agree the Somali population is well underestimed

It is all dense, but Mogadishu is not that big, unless people come from outer, and go back at night,

 

 

More people, in small area, becomes illusion, For example , Birmingham could be three times the size of Mogadishu, but has a population of 1.1 Million, where Mogadishu around 2 Million, 10 or more people per house, So if you travel from Birmingham , You will think this is 5 times more people.

[cadnaan1]

shaqsi ka mid ah agaasimayaasha wasaarada maaliyada wuxuu ii sheegay inay lacagta kasoo xarooto dekeda muqdishu monthly ay tahay 12 millions. sanadki lasoo dhaafay 2016

 

the muqdishu population when u r in the city it looks overcrowded magaaladana aad ayey u balaaratay but still i dont think it s up to 5 million,,, 3 millions possible

[Alpha Blondy]

Galbeedi,

 

Some of your questions are longer than the 'eye witness' response.