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xiinfaniin

Turkey to host three-way talks with presidents of Somalia, Somaliland

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^Everything you mentioned has been done to stabilize the South, The West have tried different ways to contain the South and none have proven successful including ill-advised Ethiopian invasion. They have finally figured out that one needs to empower the locals if there is any hope to see a stable South. The purpose is to deny AS and its foreign elements large swathes of land in which to operate.To that end, these latest efforts have been successful but they are not answer to the larger Somali problem which Somaliland happens to be part of it.

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Larger somali problems the jubbaland formation the lowershabelle conflict the new influx of weapons in somalia. The somalia somaliland talks.

 

The ic wants a stable somalia but it wants to reach that by using diplomacy, we somalis think we are really important for the west but we are not.

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Che,

 

Some of the moves I mentioned represent an overarching IC policy in Somalia. there is a reason why Britain and US are involved in bolstering the security capacity of both Puntland and Somaliland (lets not delve into the quality of such support). Assuming these policies are driven by containing alqaida affiliated groups threat emanating from Somalia, then the presence of such groups in the North as well as in the East of the country only shows that the south is not an isolated place ...

 

Somaliland is a challenge for sure but not close to the challenge posed by alshabaab. Somaliland is led by rationale actors that depend on IC's financial support for the large part. Somaliland is also facing internal political/security strife that is only contained by the help of the IC , I do not expect a rebellion at the admin level -- Siilaanyo saying no would be akin to spitting into the well that sustains you .

 

The Ethiopian invasion might have been ill advised from a Somali prespective, but it could as well have been a convenient means to eliminate a threat from IC's perspective.

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xiinfaniin;936508 wrote:
I am reporting facts. You can tell us what you wish about third party mediation, testing the waters and whatnot.

LMAO...quote of the day :)

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The Sage   

xiinfaniin;936523 wrote:
There are vast regions that Somaliland claims but could not set a foot..

I really hope that the extreme irony of your statement isn't lost on you.... unless your delusional enough to believe the leadership in xamar could ever step foot in Somaliland's borders

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STOIC   

Haha..No comment until the talks are over and we shall see who is going to budge so we can ridicule all that is spewed here...

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Carafaat   

International Community Leverage:

 

On Somalia:

 

Security:

Amison troops from 5 or 6 diffrent countries, diffrent training missions and programs for police, army and marines.

Political:

Facilitates the complete Federal Goverment, as well as regional processes like Jubbaland(IGAD), Baidoa/Beletweyn(Ethiopians).

Financially:

Direct budget support and funding to goverment and regional processes.

 

 

 

On Somaliland:

 

Security:

Funding of Police trainings.

Political:

-

Financial:

Funding of INGO, UN agencies development programmes. No direct budget support for goverment.

 

 

Clearly and objectively the International community has much and much more leverage in Somalia, because the complete goverment, security

And political process in Somalia is directly steered and supported by IC.

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NGONGE   

There are those in SL who are suspicious of these talks. They don’t believe that Somalia is a legitimate partner and rather think that because SL had gained its independence by force of arms, it should not demean itself by going back to sit down with those it defeated. Their argument is that there are no talks to be had and that SL’s position is very clear.

 

Then there are those that believe that SL will still have to talk to Somalia because of the proximity of that state and in order for SL to disentangle itself from everything Somali (debts, border demarcations, compensation and peaceful co-existence). Siilaanyo seems to subscribe to this latter group.

 

The rest of those in SL are happy to seek separation by any means necessary and, since they already believe that SL is separate, view these talks as the final nail on the coffin of the Somali Republic.

 

So, as you can see, discussion and differing points of view regarding these talks do exist and are very lively in SL. Though they all disagree on the method used to achieve the final goal, they nonetheless are all unanimous in their desire to see the separation rubber stamped.

 

With Somalia however, nobody really can tell what the government of Hassan Sheikh thinks. They are all sweet and conciliatory in their words (no political pressure or force, hope for unity, etc). Yet, it is the same nonsense they have used within their own backyard but are still finding themselves falling out with everyone.

 

The Somali commentators have been mostly silent about these talks and one can’t find any that are opposed or in support of these talks. Well, I say any even when I can see Xiin’s desperate attempts to present his simplistic opinion as some well thought out and thorough analysis of these talks!

 

At any rate, in order for one to analyse these talks and their eventual outcome, one has to inspect the publicised aims of the talks (not the desires of SL or Xiin). These are all about clarifying the future relationship between SL & Somalia. Clarifying a relationship can be anything from separation to full integration and anything in between. Bear in mind that the International Community, at this stage at least, is only here to encourage, support and facilitate these talks, not to mediate.

 

So, who has more reason for optimism here? Somaliland that has been planning for this day for two decades or Somalia that keeps changing presidents and politics every day? Somaliland that is united in its desire to ratify its independence or Somalia that tilts according to the desires of whoever is in charge at any point in time? Somaliland that has believed in its independence for twenty two years or Somalia with an FM that discovered the virtues of unity three months ago?

 

Xiin really shouldn’t be asking his crystal ball any questions about Somaliland and should rather direct his questions and complaints to the Hassan Sheikh camp. In fact, any Somali that believes in the unity of Somalia should put all his energies into questioning, scrutinising and pressuring the Somali government into ensuring that Somaliland never secedes. This silence and preoccupation with minor issues such as Jubbaland, looted houses and Merca struggles may encourage Hassan Sheikh to think that the Somalis of Somalia are ambivalent about the statues of Somaliland and he may, just may, drop the ball. Where will that leave Xiin, eh? :D

 

Change of tactics, saaxib, change of tactics.

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Am not going to pretend that I am privy to some sort of secret information which has become the custom in SOL but few things are clear. neither party going into this conference has a mandate to concede much ground. Silaanyo wont be able to sell to people in hargeisa who have for some odd reason have been clamoring for "recognition" for two decades to return to somalia overnight and president Hassan has better chance of sending a mission to mars then getting members of parliament to accept dismemberment. the likely scenario is a stalemate and a promise to continue these talks in another time and place. If we want to be optimistic though, this is not a Israel/Palestine negotiations, Somaliland can agree to shelf its bid for statehood for a certain period, peacefully resolve issues with its Eastern neighbors and Somalia can agree to a special autonomous status until the end of that period.

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Oodweyne   

Ngonge,.. :D :D

 

Don't encourage our crystal ball fellow by the name of Mr. Xiiny, to think outside the box. :D You see he is genuinely of the opinion that the international community (IC) is in the business of "forcing" Somaliland into the union; just because, they seen in their favor to be "ambiguous" in their pronouncement of what they want for both parties to do. Hence, to him, he really believe that the IC will bring their big guns of sanctions and political threat to Somaliland if Somaliland refuse to re-join the south.

 

This means, he never saw in his wildest dream, that the said IC will be last people who wants to re-ignite another round of civil war in the Somali peninsula, since such the absurd action he thinks they will do to Somaliland, are as likely to create such an outcome of war between Somaliland and Somalia as anything else he keep on harping on about in here.

 

And, finally, he never seems to be a bright guy, who could think things from different angle. Since, it could well be the case that the said IC may opt for the "least costliest action" (like they did with South Sudan/North Sudan) where the affairs of Somalia and Somaliland is concern.

 

And that least costliest action is that, if the talks fail, then, whoever has the means to make good on their claim will be that "much closer" for her claim to be legitimized by them. And, since, Somaliland (like South Sudan) has under her control the land in which this talks are supposedly were about. Then, in that case, it will be lot easier for the said IC to legitimized Somaliland's case of independence than they will be in helping Somalia "conquering" Somaliland by force. Since the only way Somalia could make good on her claim of Somaliland would have to be that way of applying force.

 

Hence, the pity in here is the sense of seeing someone like Xiin, who in other sphere would of seen the "plausibility" of the argument that we are making to him, still failing to basically understand that what the IC will say in here is millions miles to what they are likely to do when and if such talks fail and they are confronting the "prospect" of reigniting another war in the Somali peninsula on one hand; or allowing to legitimizing the reality on the ground at the moment, which is that of "de-jure Somaliland" of the present time, on the other hand.

 

But, then, again, our Xiiny, was always far more in tune with his Crystal ball prophesies than he was in seriously thinking things from the first principle. Or at least taking a step back from his "unionist conviction" and asking himself, if there is a show-down (after the talks fail) then, which party has much more of a "telling reality" on the ground to make a good on their case than the other one.

 

For, if he were to do that, then, I believe in no time, he would of seen that this talks are really a "facing-saving-formula" given to Somalia, so that they could persuade Somaliland to return to the folds. Since, if the talks fail, then, it will be Somaliland that has more of a "fact-on-the-ground" than Somalia when it comes to which of the argument each party is peddling in here has something "concrete" to recommend itself others to.

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NGONGE   

^^ That has always been my opinion too.

 

Naxar Nugaaleed;936690 wrote:
Am not going to pretend that I am privy to some sort of secret information which has become the custom in SOL but few things are clear. neither party going into this conference has a mandate to concede much ground. Silaanyo wont be able to sell to people in hargeisa who have for some odd reason have been clamoring for "recognition" for two decades to return to somalia overnight and president Hassan has better chance of sending a mission to mars then getting members of parliament to accept dismemberment. the likely scenario is a stalemate and a promise to continue these talks in another time and place. If we want to be optimistic though, this is not a Israel/Palestine negotiations, Somaliland can agree to shelf its bid for statehood for a certain period, peacefully resolve issues with its Eastern neighbors and Somalia can agree to a special autonomous status until the end of that period.

I doubt anyone in SL believes these talks are the be all and end all of the situation. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that most expect these talks to fail. Still, when they do fail, how many will ask Hassan Sheikh why they failed? ;) (Siilaanyo is already getting the heat).

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^no one, they're busy Jubaland and looted properties in muqdisho. Seriously, I think everyone is aware of the fact that Hassan can do no more then say short of separation, am game. where all expecting failure, one wonders why they agreed to these talks to begin at this point.

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Oodweyne   

Ngonge,

 

When the talks fail (since that was always on the card); then, the issue will be interesting. Since the said IC folks who wanted to kick this ball to the long grass will have no place to hide at that time. And, in that sense, we will move from the situation in which they are "facilitators" (which is the current reality) into one whereby they will be "mediators" of the old school, along the lines of "South Sudan/North Sudan".

 

And, in that scenario, the game will be about reality of the ground versus the fiction of claiming things with hot-air assertion of legality without having any means to back it up, indeed.

 

Consequently, I am looking forward the day after the talks fail, since that day will be when the "game" will really get interesting, indeed. :D

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NG

"They don’t believe that Somalia is a legitimate partner and rather think that because SL had gained its independence by force of arms, it should not demean itself by going back to sit down with those it defeated. Their argument is that there are no talks to be had and that SL’s position is very clear."

So by that Logic, if today Awdal and Sool/Sanaag take up arms against SL Admin and declare they are independent or they want to reunite with the South, then would SL admin let them secede? what would bind these states (in North West) together as one nation?

 

Mind to clarify that NG,

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