Kenya's oil interest in Somalia (article the Economist)

[Carafaat]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2011/11/ethiopia-kenya-and-somalia

 

More but not merrier

Nov 28th 2011, 16:41 by J.L. | WAJIR

 

KENYA sent thousands of troops to southern Somalia a month ago to wipe out the jihadist Shabab militia. It wants to establish a buffer state in the south, perhaps to be called Jubaland, in order better to protect its national interests. These include boosting safety for tourists and increasing trade, especially cattle imports from Somalia and exports to Somalia of Qat, a mild narcotic. A peaceful Jubaland is also a precondition of the planned construction of a multi-billion dollar port and town in the region near Lamu, where foreigners have recently been killed and kidnapped by Somali gangs. It should improve Kenya's chances of selling oil and gas concessions there too.

The operation is not yet a success. Sceptics say the Kenyans have spent more time Tweeting than fighting. The Shabab have cockily said the Kenyans are free to leave before things get serious.

 

Kenya claims to have held back on an all-out advance on the key Shabab-held port of Kismayo to wait for the rains to end and to secure gains by building trust with local clan militias and businessmen. There is clearly support for the Kenyans in several conquered areas. In some places the Shabab forces have been notably quiet. Tellingly, their masked fighters seen in parades appear to be boys; the men have slipped away.

 

Some degree of escalation is almost certain. Kenyan victories in Somalia are likely be met with a Shabab bombing campaign in Kenya and beyond. Vigilance of security guards in Kenya is already faltering in the face of the country's happy-go-lucky outlook. The best chance of averting carnage in the Kenyan capital Nairobi looks to be luck and jihadist incompetence. At least incompetence is possible after Western and Ethiopian intelligence campaigns of recent years have successfully targeted Shabab bomb-makers and commanders; several would-be Shabab “martyrs” have accidentally blown themselves up this week. Then again, other bombers have succeeded in setting off blasts in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Besides, such thin hopes are no consolation for tourists and investors who want to visit Kenya.

 

The Shabab are being squeezed from all sides—by American drones from the air, by Somali government forces and African Union troops (mostly Ugandan) in Mogadishu, and by Ethiopia, which says it may reinforce the AU force by pushing in from the West. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's prime minister, dislikes the idea of Kenya having the upper hand in Somalia. But descriptions of Ethiopia's deployment are probably exaggerated. Ethiopia never really left after occupying swathes of western Somalia in 2006, before supposedly withdrawing completely in 2009. In fact, Ethiopia has built up a network of spies, military trainers and proxy forces that do its bidding. It has long continued to run reconnaissance missions across the border.

 

Somali hatred of Ethiopia may also be overplayed. Along the border at least, on the evidence of Baobab's travels there, many Somalis seem to prefer the Ethiopians to the maniacal Shabab. Mr Meles will probably order commando units, perhaps in AU green helmets, to advance on Shabab positions. At that point the jihadists will have to decide how much territory they can afford to defend.

 

The Somali Transitional Federal Government will probably squander any territorial gains with rent seeking and squabbling. Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali is competent, but President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed has become a liability. Mr Ahmed is torn between pragmatically allowing in foreigners, and retaining a nationalist Islamist sentiment. The TFG's tenuous position is not helped by Kenya's reaching out to Israel for help on stamping on the Shabab. Photos of Kenyan and Israeli officials glad-handing in Jerusalem recently have played prominently on jihadist websites.

 

The Kenyan pact with Israel has shocked some Kenyan Muslims. They have largely been supportive of moving into Somalia, but if the campaign flounders, people may become more sympathetic to the jihadists' message.

[Carafaat]

http://www.twf.org/News/Y2011/1122-SYLoil.pdf

 

Reliable sources in Kenya and Somali governments confirm that Kenya has

been pushed by Norway , which has long time dream of the war-torn

country’s oil resources. A Kenyan official who declined to be named told

Wagoshanewsthat Nairobi authorities received millions of dollars from the Norwegian government to attack southern Somalia in the pretext of fighting against Al-Shabab. “The Norwegian was angry with Somali parliament’s recent

decision of rejecting a plan aimed at changing Somalia ’s sea boundaries that could allow Norway to drill free of charge oil from the region”, added the official.

 

Since 2006 Norway has been making efforts to find an opportunity of drilling Somalia

oil, but according to Somali politicians, Norwegians have been looking for dodgy

deals that will give them rights to benefit from Somalia resources.

[Carafaat]

Xiinfaniin for sure wont deny this if Garowe online reports it.

http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somali_war_linked_to_brewing_oil_dispute.shtml

"Kenya's involvement in southern Somalia was designed to gain the upper hand on offshore oil block concessions that rightfully belong to Somalia as stipulated in the 1982 U.N. Law of the Seas convention," said Abdillahi Mohamud, director of the East African Energy Forum.

[xiinfaniin]

Forum readership are noticing how xiinfaniin-centric you've become

 

It is not healthy...

[Carafaat]

xiinfaniin;934481 wrote:

Forum readership are noticing how xiinfaniin-centric you've become

 

It is not healthy...

Saxiib, what you have been posting the last few days is very unhealthy. I cant just ignore that.

 

P.S. I shall await your respond on the thread.

[Dabrow]

Kenyans motives are well known and the somali gov had disagreements with them before when parts of this oil blocks was sold to kenya. Ofc course ras kamboni wants to rush this jubbaland inorder to pay its master and cement jubbaland status as satellite state or buffer zone if u prefer that. There is nothing in for the somali people except few lackeys of kenya.

[Baashi]

The Economist article was right on the money. I was and still oppose any foreign interference. Many rational Somalis oppose foreign interferences. But unlike you, I understand that Somalia is not in a position to stand up to these emboldened neighbors. To the contrary the government relies on their muscle to keep the peace and is in need of their support. If AS is to be defeated, the support of neighboring states is crucial.

 

The various faction competing power are also not in a position to point fingers at each other. SSDF, SNM, USC – each and the clans that supported them allowed themselves to do Ethiopia’s bidding in order to advance their own. If you ask die-hard supporters of these rebel groups they will tell you the symbiotic relationship with Ethiopia was a matter of necessity not a treasonous act.

 

Kenya reacted to the threat stemming from AS and monetary handouts from powers that be encouraged them to bite the bullet and put their soldiers on harm’s way. Somalia had it being in Kenya or Ethiopia’s shoes would have done the same thing. It’s the law of the jungle awoowe. Any state facing security threats will go for the kill if the other is in a weaker position to defend itself.

 

Now I don’t think Kambooni faction is uniquely treasonous faction than all other clan factions that preceded it and its motive is not to serve Kenya and cede Somalia resources to foreigners. Your bias is getting the best of you awoowe. Or perhaps your reasoning is not optimal.

 

Also you need to understand that all matters related to borders (which this maritime dispute is) falls under the Federal Government. So even if Raskamboni sole purpose is to advance Kenyan interest : ) as you seem to believe it does not have a say in this issue.

 

If I were you I would look the Juba issue in clan context. The political tournament is in its last round and this particular faction is claiming a stake before the tournament is over.