The Economist: Somalia's Future - A Ray of Hope

[Mintid Farayar]

Somalia’s future

 

A ray of hope

 

International plans to help Somalis create regional governments are the best news in years for the miserable country

 

Feb 25th 2012 | from the print edition

 

 

TWO decades of war and terror have made Somalia one of the world’s worst places to live. Last year at least 80,000 people died in a famine and 2.3m continue to need food assistance. Nobody imagines Somalia’s fortunes might easily be turned around. Many Western governments have long kept their distance in despair. That includes America, which suffered a debacle there in 1993—later chronicled in the film “Black Hawk Down”.

Yet things are looking up. An initiative launched at an international conference in London on February 23rd could give Somalis new hope. Attended by Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, and senior representatives from 40 countries, it is the first push on this scale. The British, prime movers of the event, are pursuing a fresh diplomatic approach. Instead of trying to boost the “transitional federal government” in the capital, Mogadishu, the conference participants—foreign and Somali—say they will accept that the country is, for the time being, irretrievably broken into five or six zones of influence. Rather than put their faith in the feeble internationally recognised government, whose writ extends barely beyond Mogadishu, in the vain belief that it can bludgeon the rest of the country into submission, the leaders of the country’s various fiefs have pledged to develop a more or less federal system.

 

The plan’s timing is propitious, as the Shabab militia, which has for the past few years controlled the biggest swathe of Somalia, mainly in the country’s south and centre, has recently lost ground and popularity. Ethiopian and Kenyan forces, with logistical backing from the Americans, French and British, have squeezed it in a pincer movement from the west and south. Moreover, the Shabab failed to feed the people in its zone of influence during last year’s terrible drought. The Shabab’s refusal to allow Western agencies such as Oxfam and the International Committee of the Red Cross into its territory is said to have alienated many of its former supporters.

 

The Shabab shuffle

At this stage the anti-Shabab forces at home and abroad, especially the Americans, have no intention of starting negotiations with the group, which has links to al-Qaeda, albeit tenuous ones—it was only on February 10th that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy head of al-Qaeda, formally welcomed the Shabab as members of the terror franchise.

 

Furthermore, America and the West have no immediate plans to bestow recognition on Somaliland, the de facto fully autonomous area in the north-west of the country that was ruled by Britain during the colonial era before Somalia’s independence in 1964. Nowadays it is the best-run and safest part of Somalia.

 

But in due course Western feelers may indeed be put out to elements in the Shabab, much as with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Western intelligence agencies guess that the number of foreign jihadists operating with the Shabab is in the “low hundreds”, though no one is sure. It is unknown whether the supposed leader of the Shabab, the 34-year-old Moktar Ali Zubeyr, better known as Godane, or the powerful figure of Moktar Robow, who controls much of the south-central area, is remotely amenable to negotiation.

 

At present, Somalia faces a military stand-off. America operates a spy network there and recently launched a special-forces commando raid from its base in nearby Djibouti to free an American citizen from Somali brigands. It also operates drones from Ethiopia, providing intelligence to Kenyan and Ethiopian forces. They have gained ground against the Shabab since invading in mid-December, though the Kenyans have got bogged down on nigh-impassable roads. Their hope of capturing Kismayo, a Shabab stronghold, has yet to be realised.

 

The Ethiopians have done better, alongside a proxy force of Sufi Somalis known as the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa (the Majority) or ASWJ, which now controls a wedge of land along the Ethiopian border. The Ethiopians took Baidoa, the second-biggest town held by the Shabab, on February 22nd. They hope to join up with the most northerly of the Kenyans’ three prongs of attack.

 

The Shabab are just one of Somalia’s scourges. Pirates have caused havoc among ships traversing vast parts of the Indian Ocean, as far east as the Seychelles and as far south as the Comoro islands. Pirates have not directly filled the Shabab’s coffers, though they may occasionally have been forced to pay the jihadists a lucrative levy. In any event, the pirates’ power may have peaked. The number of hijackings has declined dramatically, thanks to international maritime patrols and the arming of guards on ships. But worryingly for shippers, ransom demands may have risen as the number of captured ships falls. One recent demand was for a princely $11m.

 

On dry land, the official government of Somalia remains feeble in the extreme. “It doesn’t even control Mogadishu,” says a Western aid worker with long experience of Somalia. “It doesn’t administer anything. AMISOM [the African Mission to Somalia] does it all. [somali] warlords control all the towns—and the aid.”

 

AMISOM, which has a joint mandate from the African Union and the UN, consists of some 10,000 troops, mainly Ugandans with some Burundians, soon to be increased to 17,000. The Ugandan acting foreign minister, Okello Oryem, said: “We’re here for as long as it takes.”

 

The troops have gained ground in Mogadishu in the past few months, having cleared the Shabab out of the Bakara market, the capital’s main trading hub. But they still face an average of five attacks a day by the Shabab, according to Western intelligence sources. Moreover, AMISOM has yet to counter-attack the Shabab deep in the countryside.

 

Rival anti-Shabab Somali administrations, based largely on clans, are entrenching themselves in their respective areas. Somaliland, where the **** clan predominates under a more or less democratic mandate, has a strong lobby, especially in Britain, seeking to gain full independence. The Ethiopians trade with Somaliland and use its port of Berbera but hold back from endorsing full independence. Puntland, according to a Western diplomat, is “about 10-12 years behind Somaliland” but seeks to entrench the autonomy it has achieved within a federal Somalia. Its president, Muhammad Farole, has support from the diaspora in Australia.

 

Galmudug is another, smaller zone that has become a cohesive semi-independent fief, south of Puntland and north of the zone which the ASWJ more or less controls. Jubaland, in the far south, is sometimes envisaged as yet another semi-autonomous zone. Lastly, the pirates control a coastal strip that extends from Eyl in the north to Haradheere in the centre. Inland the towns of Galkayo and Garowe have benefited visibly from pirate wealth.

 

 

The plan to cantonise Somalia carries risks. The resulting country will still be corrupt and illiberal, though possibly less dysfunctional and deadly. The London plan is relatively crude—the tribal federations now being empowered are hardly ideal partners. The plan also depends on the success of foreign soldiers. Kenya’s floundering force could become a recruiting sergeant for the Shabab if its occupation of Somalia’s southern fringes becomes permanent or fails to benefit the locals.

 

Success furthermore depends on tribal federations working together in a constituent assembly that is yet to be set up. Lack of co-operation between regional power-brokers has long been a problem. At the same time, an eventual break-up of the country becomes more likely with cantonisation. Disputes over internal borders could eventually lead to bloodshed.

 

The Somali body politic is on life support. Neither domestic nor regional actors have much trust in each other, so the cantonisation plan is a long shot. But nothing else has worked since the last functioning state collapsed in 1991.

[Carafaat]

Mintid, if this was a stockmarket. My shares are increasing, yours are stagnating. If this continues for another year. We should talk merger or acquisition. Any preference?

[Mintid Farayar]

@ Carafaat

Although, well-meaning, you're new to the game, saaxiib. That much is obvious. Like I've told you numerous times, you and I don't matter. It's the people on the ground who do.

 

 

What do you predict for your project in the next half year? What will become of the TFG, the current vehicle for Somalia's and your hopes? What will happen after August? Things to think about-since you claim to be a betting man.

 

Don't let personal inclinations/ties muddy your vision. Stay in touch with what's happening on the ground and assess from that vantage point rather than ego-centered debates around cafes.

[Mukulaalow]

informative article.

[Carafaat]

Mintid Farayar;797220 wrote:

@ Carafaat

Although, well-meaning, you're new to the game, saaxiib. That much is obvious. Like I've told you numerous times, you and I don't matter. It's the people on the ground who do.

 

 

What do you predict for your project in the next half year? What will become of the TFG, the current vehicle for Somalia's and your hopes? What will happen after August? Things to think about-since you claim to be a betting man.

 

Don't let personal inclinations/ties muddy your vision. Stay in touch with what's happening on the ground and assess from that vantage point rather than ego-centered debates around cafes.

 

Mintid,

 

You assume that I have no idea what is going on the ground?

 

Well check Mayor Jiciir's and Minister Duur's action today. He cleaned the streets from illegal kiosk argumenting that it's needed for Aqoonsi.

 

Somaliland's goverment is already recognized as an authority with legal power over it's territority and it's domestic souvereign is neither questioned. But lets talk international souvereignity and what this has to do with clean streets.

 

What do the folks on the ground know about foreing politics, international diplomacy, the rights and responsibility that come with international souvereignity.

 

Mintid, I have said it before. You argument is of the same level and logic of a Geeljire. Sxb, explain how you want to fill in this international souvereignity Somaliland so badly wants. And what consequences it will have and which reer wil get the WTO Ambassadorship.

[Mintid Farayar]

Answering questions with questions? And you're right - I am a 'geeljire', have been one for generations and generations And Geeljire's have an instinctive dislike of foreign meddling in any Somali-inhabited area (hence my alarm regarding trends in South-Central Somalia)

 

As for my position on the much over-hyped international recognition, I've written extensively on it a few years ago on this Forum in an exchange with the resident 'mad mule' of SOL. But suffice it to say that the real impediments to it are 'foreign powers', not Somalis. The larger world never cared what the Somalis wished for since pre-independence times (giving away of Haud-Reserve areas, the international rejection of Somali claims on the Western Somali Territories/Kililka Shanaad, etc.,).

 

Now how about you answer my questions regarding your 'fortune-teller's glass'....

[Carafaat]

Mintid, you admit Somaliland cant push it's agenda on foreign powers?

 

On your question Minti,

 

TFG is politicly dead. It's funeral is being orchestrated by the Queen of Britain herself or atleast her servants of the FO. And from August we shall see a new project or working group for Somalia(Southern) that is and it carries hope of changing things for it corrects mistakes of the previous attempts. And then Somaliland will talk with Somalia. There are diffrent options on the table and I am campaigning for of those options. Thus my presence here, Minti.

[Mintid Farayar]

In other words, no answer outside of regurgitating what every teenager knows who read the blueprint/roadmap concocted in Nairobi. You can do better than that. Care to take another shot?

 

Remember, foreigners have their plans and Somalis have their actions with an annoying tendency to frustrate those plans...

[Carafaat]

Mintid Farayar;797307 wrote:

In other words, no answer outside of regurgitating what every teenager knows who read the blueprint/roadmap concocted in Nairobi. You can do better than that. Care to take another shot?

 

Remember, foreigners have their plans and Somalis have their actions with an annoying tendency to frustrate those plans...

Further then this I cant go with speculating. But please do tell us mighty minti.

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodweyne;797313 wrote:

But, still, for what is worth, it would have been a refreshing site to see the leaders and the pundits of Somalia having a the merest clue of the hand that was dealt to them in that conference. Instead of forever being satisfied with a blinding symbolism of the whole thing.

The so-called leaders of Somalia are only good for writing reviews pertaining to the myriad global cities and hotels they hop around weekly on such popular websites as 'TripAdvisor' and 'Lonely Planet'....

 

You're asking far too much of them...

[Mintid Farayar]

Carafaat;797320 wrote:

Further then this I cant go with speculating. But please do tell us mighty minti.

Flattery and appeasement don't work on a 'geeljire' Or didn't they teach you that in Xamar Cadey?

[The Hermet]

The economist recently also invisioned the end of putin of russia....so everything should be examined through logic...i think you guys probably know better in regards to the somalia situation then the economist. :cool:

[Mintid Farayar]

Quoting the Economist:

 

'Furthermore, America and the West have no immediate plans to bestow recognition on Somaliland, the de facto fully autonomous area in the north-west of the country that was ruled by Britain during the colonial era before Somalia’s independence in 1964. Nowadays it is the best-run and safest part of Somalia.'

 

 

'Rival anti-Shabab Somali administrations, based largely on clans, are entrenching themselves in their respective areas. Somaliland, where the **** clan predominates under a more or less democratic mandate, has a strong lobby, especially in Britain, seeking to gain full independence. The Ethiopians trade with Somaliland and use its port of Berbera but hold back from endorsing full independence. Puntland, according to a Western diplomat, is “about 10-12 years behind Somaliland” but seeks to entrench the autonomy it has achieved within a federal Somalia. Its president, Muhammad Farole, has support from the diaspora in Australia.'

 

 

I hope the continuous repetition of these points by the international media will not give some here on these Boards a mild heart attack

[Carafaat]

Oodweyne;797313 wrote:

PS

:-

 

I hate to get in the way of the friendly fire between our

Mr. Mintid

on one hand, and

Mr. Carafat

, on the other hand; but, I thought, to return the discussion to it's original moorings of this piece; and, therefore, lets leave Somaliland out of it.

 

For, it's the case, that, whether you like it or not, Somaliland, politically and diplomatically, have done a great deal of good out of that London Conference. Hence, lets now take the rest of Somalia and see what sort of

"prognosis"

this conference could be said it's pregnant for them; in so far as they are concern.

 

Oodweyneh, Mintid,

 

The outcome of the Londen Conference is very postitive for both Somaliland and Somalia. But for diffrent reasons.

Somaliland is finally 'plugged' on to the international community and politics in the region. And its de facto status of

Its institutions, position and status has been

Internationally underligned and confirmed . And inshallay this will result in more development

And economic support and it moves away from the "humanitarian" seal of the NGO's. Direclty dealing with its donors.

And for all the reasons you guys mentioned.

 

For Somalia this Conference is quite positive for whole other reasons.

Everyone who analysis the conflict in Somalia over the past 20 years will come to

The conclusion that it's not lack of int support that kept conflict going nor can the cause

Of the conflict be blamed on Foreign Powers. However it's a political conflict with diffrence

In ideological and political vision of the country that has resulted in the conflict and the incoherent intervensions

Of the diffrent foreign powers kept the conflict going. With many diffrent players supporting

Diffrent groups from the start in 1991 till now.

This gave the diffrent groups so much space, support and funding

That politicians felt never obliged to broker a deal or concensus with eachother

And each time one leader trying to force his solution or way on other groups

(trationalist, modern or religious groups). This was the case from 1991 and has

Lsted till today. Instead of playing for arbiter, foreign powers mostly suppported one

The groups.

 

Now what the Brits have done and is quite incredible. For the first time ever they have

Gathered and brokered a deal between all these Foreign Powers with each their own agenda's.

No country was missing and they signed the agreement and are from now on together on

A permanent basis involved and responsible through structures on finance, security and politics

That will be responsible for the international involvement and the national implemention.

 

So the int community will speak, act, finance and operate with one voice. Making it difficult for anyone

Somali's and foreign countries to operate individualy without consent.

 

Remember there is no conflict between the Somali's. Only diffrence in vision, ideology and politics. And now

There is one table where one have to sort things out together without anyone walking away

Or securing support from whoever.

 

So understand my optimism for Somalia.

[A_Khadar]

Furthermore, America and the West have no immediate plans to bestow recognition on Somaliland, the de facto fully autonomous area in the north-west of the country that was ruled by

Britain during the colonial era before Somalia’s independence in 1964.

Nowadays it is the best-run and safest part of Somalia.

 

Who wrote this? Can't even corret the simple fact about somalia? When was somali's independence?