U.S Concerns About Kenya's Jubba Campaign(in early 2010)

[Mintid Farayar]

The U.S. as of early 2010 had major reservations about this Kenyan Jubba campaign. To begin with, U.S. military advisors were not impressed with the capability of Kenyan regular forces with which they had extensive training contact for the last decade.

 

Below is a list of concerns presented to the Kenyan Foreign Minister from the U.S. side:

 

1- The undertaking could be more complicated and much more expensive than the Kenyan's forecast.

 

2- An incursion could trigger clan and sub-clan rivalries that could worsen matters in Lower Jubba Region.

 

3- If successful, a Lower Jubba entity could emerge as a rival to the TFG.

 

4- It was possible that Kenya could be unwittingly providing training to present or future members of the ONLF.

 

5- Did Kenya have a plan should their troops be defeated?

 

6- Was Kenya willing to persevere if their was a negative outcome?

 

7- What would be the domestic repercussions of a defeat?

 

8- What would be the Kenya's response if the TFG or if Ethiopia had a change of heart?

 

Kenya was told to think it over and come up with a better plan. This is when the Ras Kamboni militia of Adan Madobe was brought in (this militia had far more local concerns and was more battle-hardened than the Kenyan-trained Azania militia).

 

Senior U.S. regional policy-makers pointed to the lessons learned from the 2006 Ethiopian invasion (al-Shabaab's ability to utilize the presence of foreign boots to rally nationalistic sentiment).

 

From all this, it's evident the U.S. claim of ignorance regarding the current Kenyan military campaign is inaccurate. (French military assets are also playing a support role)

[The Zack]

TJhis is all based on your opinion? Midda kale I see you are very interested in this Azania thing these days. Worried for cousin Godane? Don't worry he will be back to his country, Somaliland.

[Mintid Farayar]

This is all direct from Wikileaks. Like the cliche, 'Information is power'! I have no horse in the race, Zack, so don't do a Xiin with the random paranoia.

Godane is another killer like all his partners, there will be no tears shed for him from this end. Perhaps your cousins can do us all a favor and take care of that threat once and for all (all Somalis would be thankful).

[The Zack]

Lol ok thanks for the clarification.

[xiinfaniin]

Mintid has been showing a great interest in the recent activities in the South. Why is that?

[Mintid Farayar]

Reading between the lines, things are not going so well for the Kenyans. The latest appeals signal disappointment with the support from the U.S. The Kenyan Ambassador to the U.N. is currently attempting to mine American concerns about Somali-American recruits in Al Shabaab to receive greater military aid/involvement from the U.S.

 

----------------------------------

 

 

 

Kenya UN envoy seeks US help on Somalia

 

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

 

Kenya's UN envoy on Tuesday courted support from Washington for his country's campaign against Islamist Shebab rebels in southern Somalia.

"We would love to see the international community, with the US right up there, engaging in Somalia in ways in which they have not for quite a long time," Ambassador Macharia Kamau told AFP in an interview.

Kenya deployed tanks and troops to the Shebab-controlled southern Somalia on October 14 to fight the Al-Qaeda-linked rebels Nairobi blames for kidnapping foreigners and making cross-border raids.

"We would like to see the US and the international community taking advantage of basically what Kenya is doing, which is putting troops on the ground, taking risks that need to be taken to achieve the goals that we all say need to be achieved, which is to bring peace and security to Somalia," he said.

The ambassador was due to meet with Democratic Senator Al Franken and Democratic Representative Keith Ellison of Minnesota, a state with a vast Somali-American community that al-Shebab has tapped for recruits, and Republican Senator Mark Kirk, who has sounded the alarm over the al-Qaeda linked group.

The diplomat said Shebab was training "over 40 known American citizens" in Somalia, warning that there was "a direct line" from the group "right back to American cities" that "poses a clear and present danger for Americans."

"We should never forget that what's going on in Somalia, while it might appear to be far away, out in the middle of nowhere, has tentacles that stretch back to the United States," he cautioned.

And he made a fresh appeal to the United States to consider imposing a blockade on the rebel-held Somali port of Kismayo to choke off the rebels' supply line, a move Washington has been reluctant to support

 

AFP

[xiinfaniin]

Actually, Americans (State Department) has been privately (Mr. Swanson's meetings with Somali Diaspora) clear as to what their position is vis-a-vis Kenya invasion. The American envoy has been touring major Diaspora concentrations in the US distancing themselves from Kenyan invasion, and selling Mahiga's road map as the way to go.

 

On the Kenya invasion, America's public pronouncement matches with her private reservation.

[Mintid Farayar]

Do you really think American policy makers tell the Somali diaspora what their geostrategic goals are? Now who's being naive...

Stick to the coffee shops and the latest rumors, my friend!

[xiinfaniin]

^^ :D

 

Waryaa aayar with dagaalka, it is not healthy to be always livid with xiin

 

Americans may not tell Somalis what their geo-strategic goals are but Americans have no reason to spend time and money in touring Somali Diaspora in selling something that is contrary to their goals

 

Now, look who is being erratic with his thoughts

[Dabrow]

Xiin:

 

I must sideline with Mintid on this one. You are not making sense:D

[xiinfaniin]

Dabrow;758950 wrote:

Xiin:

 

I must sideline with Mintid on this one. You are not making sense:D

Yeah sideline him awoow

[Dabrow]

I mean agree with him. You have to understand my english is not good at all. But you are still not making sense.

Of course the americans wont tell somalis about their goals its merely stating the obvious, but you still somehow thinks its debatable. Its not.

[xiinfaniin]

^^My bad . Dabrow is with Mintid now. That is interesting development indeed

[Dabrow]

xiinfaniin;758955 wrote:

^^My bad . Dabrow is with Mintid now. That is interesting development indeed

Don't paint yourself into a corner. Just a good advice.

[xiinfaniin]

^^How charitable :D

 

Don't read too much into forum discussions. Just a good advice