Water, water every where and not a drop to drink!

[Liqaye]

Xiinow your thread title leaves me too little room to wiggle but wiggle I must, so I started this other one saxiib.

 

Undoubtedly peace is what the vast majority of Somalis want, even qabilists in their own wrapped and misguided perception of reality, believe peace and glory can be had in Somalia if only all the other Somalis would bow and accept the aegis of their particular tolka[/i.]

 

When Somalis supported the creation of statelets such as Somaliland, one of the enduring reasons for this support is the peace and order this entity has afforded the people of north western Somalia, again peace at any cost is what props up punt land, it is what lead so many Somalis in supporting the Transistional national government of Arta as well as the deeply flawed creation at Mbagathi.

I myself hoped against hope to see this eminently flawed process at mbagathi lead somewhere.

A desire for peace in some areas reinforced clan dynamics through the creation of the R.R.A and the J.V.A.

A desire for peace is what lead the mothers of Mogadishu to brave heavy fighting and marauding moryaan, in delivering supplies to what where initially ill prepared and under armed ICU fighters in the initial stages of the peoples insurrection against the tin pot despots of Benadiir.

A desire for peace is what lead to people participating in the other peace talks held in the military barracks of Mogadishu as well as the peace talks in Djibouti.

A desire for peace is what despite and in spite of the concerted historical efforts of Somali warlords, has led to whole swathes of regions in Somalia being peaceful, thru the acquiescence of the local population to any sort of authority.

 

The Somali people indeed want and desire peace, the sort of pseudo social anthropology that some on the forum are engaging in not withstanding.

 

You are right a failure of leadership has been what has retarded the Somali peace caravan, just over the last two years countless opportunities have been skittered away by those that claim to support the aspirations of the Somali people be they within the T.F.G or the I.C.U, but even if we were to have a super duper leader, with the conscience of the sheikh, the tenacity of Yusuf and the negotiating skills of a Qanyare, this leader or indeed group of leader would be hard pressed to bring about any sort of peace in Somalia.

 

Beyond the characters and events of Somali politics the one strategic overview that I always attempt to apply to the Somali situation is the two currents of Somali politics elucidated by Samatar.

Somali politics over the past 50 years has always been faced by the opposing tugs of the clannish imperative and the nationalist imperative.

The clannish imperative aims to create a modus operandi in Somalia based on clan calculation, from the appoint of ministers and members of parliament and obscure civil servants to the sharing of the national cake at what ever level of economic activity you care to name.

Over the past few years this imperative is in its ascendancy, illustrated by the nature of the last years of the Barre regime, the civil war and the nature of every peace initiative to end the civil war.

I will not debate the fine points any further.

The nationalist imperative with in the Somali governance idea, is based on the value of meritocracy, in the period of 1960-1969 the first president of Somalia attempted utmost to incorporate all Somalis with in government and economic activity in 1965 the Somali prime minister Abdi razaq Mohamed in his bosto rosso [red envelope] campaign against corruption sacked close to 200 senior civil servants regardless of clan affiliation and appointed their replacements based on purely meritocratic basis.

 

But let us put that aside for a moment and let us assume that in our search for the holy grail of Somali peace we are willing to overturn every principle we have, be it religious, nationalist or indeed in the case of baadiye modernist to reach the goal of a peaceful Somalia.

There are several ways that peace can be reached, all of which I have to say I presage with the inevitable statement that clarifies my position of peace being impossible:

 

Peace through the T.F.G

 

Even if every Somali was to accept the legitimacy of the T.F.G falling to our knees and informing them to do with us what they wish, this group of people would still not be able to set up even a modicum of a state within Somalia.

How ever we might hope this particular cabal, is inept even in its perfidy, among themselves they cannot even agree how to divide up the spoils they consider a defeated Somalia to be!

This is not my conjecture but I feel that any sincere individual would agree that past history attests to this fact.

But let us assume as so many of us have that the T.F.G could deliver that peace through surrender that so many Somalis would give them, let us imagine that the A.R.S would today fly enmasse to Baidoa and raise the white flag at the grain silo, let us assume that the T.F.G supporters are well and truly satisfied with the end of the local difficulties [which according to brothers like duke, the death and humiliation of so many Somalis ultimately is] what then?

Expect that when the clan imperative can no longer be reduced to infinitum a new bout of violence pitting another president with another prime minister or minister, or governor or milk man will occur.

The nature of the zero sum political game that the insipid characters in Baidoa follow as well as the inherent weaknesses that the clan balancing act entails furthermore based on the selfish and venal needs of the brokers of “peace” in Baidoa [who are former warlords, genocidaires, adventurers, collaborators] entails would assure us of that war would be postponed for only a very short time.

If peace at any costs that is for the moment is the goal then by all means, the collective bowing to the pillagers in Baidoa will be sufficient, I personally will bow as low as is necessary because as you can see I do desire peace.

 

Peace through Negotiation

 

Negotiation is indeed better than any forum of armed conflict, but unfortunately negotiations requires that more than one person be represented at the table!

If it is not to be a craven capitulation that I personally support, [which would not even need the decorum of negotiation when what we wish for is peace] then I must ask with whom this negotiation would be between.

I personally will support any negotiation effort but even my mind boggles at the idea of a negotiation with any one at any time over anything! One does not negotiate with the security guard at a bank for a multi million dollar loan, so who am I to negotiate with.

It does not matter if it is under a tree, at a conference in Djibouti, or on the back of a deck of playing cards in a dimly lit cinema waiting for the love guru to come up on the screen.

 

Cadde Nuur as a politician sincerely wishes to bring a lasting peace in Somalia, but the nature of the institution he leads regardless of who ever might have been the president at the time precludes the genuine reconciliation he is looking for.

Beyond the clannish imperative the T.F.G is based on, every negotiation has to have some sort of give and take between different affected interest groups; I must ask what interest group the T.F.G represents? Is it the union of former warlords welfare association or the pillagers and careerists contact group, if so then where do these people live? Which district, which province, what do they eat, and how has the current mayhem in Somalia adversely affected them.

Surely they want a peace were the people are consulted in decisions that affect them and there is some sort of budgeting on monies occurring however mundane.

Perhaps it is Ethiopia that we need to appease or do some still hope for a meeting of minds under the shade of Ethiopia might and diplomacy in Somalia, Surely Ethiopia over the past 13 years has been interested in a peaceful Somalia, perhaps they should be petitioned, I would do so region 5 would be given over to Ethiopia as well as the golgodoob district and indeed any other they wish to name, would this appease these interest groups.

If you say that this or even more will be sufficient then by all means brothers negotiation is possible and indeed I ask why it has not occurred already as the conditions are so ripe on the ground and have been so for a very long time.

 

Let us come back to the name of this thread water water every where and not a drop to drink.

Calls for peace every where and no one to make peace with.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Liqaye, Ninkii ilo biyyo leh soo arkoo ooman baan ahay’e, nin ugaas walaalkii yahoo aarsan baan ahay e, afdhabaan-dhab ninkaa aayar aamusaan ahay’e .

 

Thanks brother for the provocative thread…

 

It’s not (and it shouldn’t be perceived that way) a very difficult proposition for Somali parties to sit down, talk and reach a political settlement. That’s not to say that Somalis will realize peace tomorrow or anytime soon. I know there is no guarantee for that. If however Somalis continue fighting as they have been doing for the last 17 yrs, one thing is assured, and that is Ethiopia’s dominance, militarily and politically, will be entrenched and Somalis the ones left to bear the brunt of that humiliation (and not those who are today shouting from the roof tops of their Qurbo homes in opposition to Sharif’s efforts) will live with it for the years to come! Supporting the Jabbuuti efforts, a process that could ultimately create a level of understanding between relevant factions, and consequently produce a politically cohesive caretaker entity however imperfect it might be, is not only nobler, but more realistic and sensible than supporting a segmented war effort that has nothing to offer other than punishing the other side. You have been on these boards long enough to know where I stood on the Somali politics. What I am supporting now is more realistic than what I supported then. That’s to say if I ever was dreaming it was then, and not now. But I was always correct on one thing, and that’s what brought Somalia to its knees is a grand failure of leadership in every category and class. You cant reject peace because the other side is bad, you must try first to find out if it’s so bad that it cant even tell what the powers-that-be’s, its masters, marching orders are today.

So brother Sharif is trying things out…he knows that he can fail. Those who opposed him opposed him out of anger at what the TFG has done. To entertain to sit down with the tfg is deemed a heretic act in some circles. And that, I think, is mindless. I am surprised that you are arguing along the same line that I did a year ago. It’s not tfg legitimacy that which Jabbuuti deal seeks to achieve. It’s the survival of Somalis that’s at stake here. There is no unified front on either side. Tfg is divided along clannish lines, and the opposition is divided along ideological divide. If Sharif’s effort does not succeed whatever the reason may be, the era of Afghan warlords will be a reality in Somalia. Afghan warlords were different than Somali warlords of today. They were religious in their political persuasion and had unrealistic goals in their political platform. And that’s the trend good Sharifs see in the current resistance movement and he is correct in his assessment that Somalis cannot afford to go through another cycle of civil war adeer.

 

That’s why, as things stand today, there is no alternative to the Jabbuuti Accord in my mind. And inshaa Allaah it will succeed.

 

We must overcome the fear, pride, and past grievances and see the big picture adeer.

 

Please post more threads oo lafa gur arrinta Jabbuuti...what is it that people are afraid of?

[Liqaye]

Xiinow brother you always supported peace only your methods were different and I always refrain from accusing people of dreaming since that is what SOL politics section is.

 

Let us agree on somethings we both support peace anyone that has read my posts will see that inspite of my seeing the flaws often up close and very personal of both the UIC and TFG I was wiling to actively support both entity in the name of peace however flawed, as long as it lead to a cessation of violence within somalia.

 

And indeed I support any solutin that might to peace with in somalia, even if it is the negotiate with anyone anytime anywhere variety.

 

From the very begging I dismissed the armed somali restiance as a coalition of malcontents having been on the ground and inspite attempts to lionise them by some initially on these forums and in the west, I was fully aware and still glaringly aware of the shortcoming of those that lob motar bombs in somalia, indeed I predicted this very same situation we are in after the fall of the UIC.

 

As a supporter of the UIC i recognized the spontaneous nature of the uprising in somalia that swept the TFG into Baidoa, but all the same I recognised and still recognise the failures of the UIC in not realising that although the TFG was the major irritant it was a paper mache creation proped up by the Ethiopians, by failing to secure the premiership in Khartoum and the right to maintain its own rapidly arming and expanding forces the UIC failed its constituents, prefering dogma over subtle long term strategizing, diplomacy and the explicit wish of its constituency.

 

I have met Sheikh sharif three times and have all the times been struck by his genuine somalinimo and urge to reconcile somalis under the banner of the blue flag, but in the same vein I have to say and this is a subjective view, I have been struck by the almost bovine naivete that the sheikh emanates, it almost like being in the presence of an animal that feeds on grass rather than even the slowest moving animals on gods green earth.

Sheikh sharif is truly nothing more than a patriotic geography teacher, and is encumbered by the lack of any intimation what consequences of actions might be.

Not only in Djibouti has this trait been displayed but before that, during the struggles on setting the tone for the UIC in its inital stages of formation, and from his escape to kenya and all expenses paid trip to yemen by the americans, as well as the nature of his position in djibouti's talks, the sheikh can not simply look a couple of steps ahead.

In Djibouti even before the beginning of the talks that even a normal non politically versed individual could have seen would be met by more than a "few" obstacles, the sheikh failed to even attempt to build any sort of coalition, be it even one of convenience among his peers in the ARS, somali's are wily and the ARS politicians are no exception any sort of offer would have been accepted because their were and still are genuine fears of aweys representing the ARS in any position or capability, but as entreties were sent for postponements to be made to delay the signing ceremony as allies in the central commitee schemed to get the deal officially endorsed by the ARS before the signing, the dear sheikh widened his bovine eyes and sent back a missive on how somalia cannot wait a day longer.

 

Well as is obvious now somalis could have avoided another false dawn if only the geography teacher would not have assumed the goodness of his fellows who now sit dejected as Aweys becomes ever more rabid in old age.

 

On the other side we have Cadde nuur who havng listned to him giving a lecture in nairobi kenya, I beleive to trully want to end the carnage in somalia, but watching him literally use his hands to pull back fine sickly strands of hair across his head, I felt like I was listening to an NGO presentation, but on futher reflection I thought that maybe that was it, as so many of us wondered why this man who was unblemished by the civil war and indeeed was the head of the red crescent in somalia would do with the TFG?

But after the lecture I understood, he feels like he was appointed not as a politico but as an official position to bring peace to Somalia, and merely that, it shows you the extent of his political acumen that he believed he could do that from with in the TFG!

 

The reason why negotiation as you and bashi refer to it would not work has nothing to do with the admirable attempts for peace by these admirable men or the support or lack there of the Somali people, but merely and most glaringly obvious the lack of an entity to negotiate with.

The TFG does not exist walaal xiin not here on cyber space and not on the ground in somalia, and where it does exist a negotiated peace is the antithesis to its existence, and negotiated peace would covertly or overtly be subverted by the clannish imperative that the T.F.G is based on.

 

Finally even those who believe that the TFG is the epitome of evil as I do, where to negotiate with the TFG where would INTEGRITY be?

 

I agree negotiate anytime anywhere with anyone, but with whom?

[xiinfaniin]

^^Thanks for your insight brother. At this point, at the risk of sounding another gullible, naïve geography teacher, I must ask you to share with us who you think factions of this conflict in its immediate sense are.

 

I say that because you seem to be suggesting as many did that tfg is irrelevant and Sharif has no constituency on the ground. Please don’t pull a Baadiyow on me by saying that you are a just an old soul waiting to rot in a European hut and collect whatever doll outs the system would allow.

 

ps..I am neither ignoring nor misunderstanding your pertinent questions about the viability of peace. I am not questioning your sincerity in wanting peace to prevail. I will insha Allah share with you what I think is the real truths about Somali conflict. But lets try to understand the nature of this conflict walaal and who its parties are.

[jamaal7777]

Could it be that the people arent making the efforts to fetch the water and so to drink. No one can really want things until they are willing to expend energy to getting what they desire.

 

Currently however an unpropotional amount of energy is spent in decifering the details that all else dwindles in importance until all atrocities get justifications.

[Baashi]

I have this feeling, deep down, that there is a deliberate attempt to dupe Somalis into believing (or even accepting the proposition) that peaceful end to this never-ending cycle of madness is impossible. In fact the opposite is true. The trouble with Somali factions is that each faction wants to become the last faction standing. More worrisome to that troubling subculture is the loud cheering the determined factions receive from folks like the ones that populate this forum.

 

Given the nature of the conflict, the pervasiveness of foreign interferences, and the determination of the personalities spearheading the drive to prevail by any means necessary, this conflict is unwinnable however you look at it. From that it follows that the best course of action is either to let the conflict take its course to its logical conclusion which Allah forbid will alter the regional map in a very dramatic way at the expense of Somalis OR employ common sense and talk it out on a dirrin. Waxa u dhaxeeyaa waa tororog. The trouble with the first option is the duration and the cost in terms of blood and treasure.

 

Chicken-Hawk game is a game Mr. Sherrif is not willing to play. To some abstaining that kinda game is unforgivable breach to the “liberation” commitment and makes him a textbook example of naïveté or political novice who is out of his depth. Don’t be surprised if Kelligii Muslim squad question his faith in Islam and make that issue a fair game in the propaganda program

 

Liqaye’s premise that there is no faction to negotiate with is a canard. I mean how could that be so? The very idea that the ragging conflict in Somalia has no drivers is absurd. You see one cannot assert that the civil war grew out of deep-seated differences between competing factions (tribal based or morphed into other X-based interest groups) and by the same token reject bringing the conflict to a closure through negotiation precisely because of the absence of viable faction to do political transaction with -- namely peacemaking.

 

TFG with all its shortcomings and blunders has constituents on the ground. I even go farther and assert that the apparent segmentation of Somalis on the ground has exposed marked factions. The fact that some sat it out, others are against it and are willing to pay the ultimate price to defeat it, and still others are for it and want to contain the mayhem into distant corners is a testament to the depth of this conflict. This is beyond indifference or complacency.

 

Brother Liqaye please do tell the variables of the conflict as you see them and what is the ultimate price participants are fighting over. Your answer to this question will simply identify the active contestants. I urge you to support the special dirrin -- the oval shaped type with impressive colors -- rolled out for these contestants you yourself have identified.

 

The other option as you may well know is to wait for one side to prevail. Pick the side you support, find a water tight justification, close your ears, and shout out unintelligible and familiar sound bites in their support. I can guarantee you will find “well said”, “could not agree more” kudos.

 

Later.

[Baashi]

Very briefly if I may let me help you out and share what malcontents of this site brought to the table so far. In his effort to answer the very same question Xiin tabled, my man Oodweyne ended up committing a fallacy not to mention his trademark ad hominem by identifying the TFG, unknowingly I must assume, as a faction in the conflict and then proceeded to characterize it as a weak and Vichy type of collaborationist kind and puppet entity. He went on to degrade it and slung mud everywhere accusing everyone of being in the closet supporter of “uncle” Yey. I beg you not to go down on the same route.

 

Aight. Here are the answers I’ve so far identified from this board’

 

1. Gaalo-raac vs. Islamist

2. Dabuthilif vs. Patriots

3. TFG vs. UIC

4. Occupiers vs. Resistance

5. Interest groups that sat on valuable loot vs. those determined to reverse that trend

6. Foreign interest groups taking sides in local contest in order to shore up a “friendly” regime they deem not to be an existential threat to their national interests.

7. All the above -- rendering this conflict a three dimensional conflict

 

Btw both posts are directed to bro Liqaye.

[NGONGE]

The author might have the good grace to refrain from mocking a dream but I don’t. As things stand, what Xiin is supporting here IS a dream. Nay, it’s a fantasy.

 

Now, just like the author, I too see the water and would love to have a sip but this water is contaminated and possessed by jinn. Just when you think it’s pure fresh water (like in the case of the ICU) you find out that it turned all salty and sour. But wait, there is another stream heading THAT way! It looks fresh, maybe it is not contaminated. ARS? Oh no! That one too splits into two smaller streams; one bloody and the other has pigs swimming in it! Maybe one should go for the TFG lake. That one is bound to be fresh. Careful, careful, here goes a crocodile. I see an old shoe! Is that an old underwear floating by?

 

The nature of Somali politics is so volatile and in a constant state of flux that one really does not know or can predict what would happen next. Yesterday, Aideed was playing Spot The Mullah with the TFG, today he’s playing Spot The Traitor with the ARS. Two years ago, Sheikh Sharif was playing Follow The Leader with the Courts and today he’s climbing Ladders and sliding down snakes with the TFG! I would not really have a big shock if AY, having been deposed, reappears donning a beard and playing Double Dutch with Sheikh Aways. Still, peace WILL come. I just don’t think it will arrive through the route Xiin believes.

 

Before I continue, I would like to give a severe slap on the wrist to all those that sneer at the opinions made in this forum (and other forums). Of course, I do not include the dreamers here (you can sneer at that lot until your sides hurt).

 

Xiin talks about those living in the West and not being touched by the conflict in Somalia being able to talk freely and almost carelessly about the pain and destruction. I’ll have to admit that I too was of this opinion once. But I have a doctor’s note ( I am not as familiar with the small details of the Somali conflict as he is). You see, I have recently come into contact with a former TFG Minster living in the UK. He was a TFG supporter once but he’s not anymore. Now, I am not here to praise the man or slate him. I merely mention him to aid the point I am making. Anyway, upon meeting him and discussing Somali affairs with him, I discovered that his is not a rare case. Indeed, there are countless Somali decision makers, parliamentarians and the like living in the West and commuting between their adopted countries and Somalia!

 

If I who only occasionally would turn my mind to Somali affairs would randomly get to meet and hold council with a Somali Minster, I wonder how many of you that are immersed in Somali politics seek, mix with and are permanent fixtures in the spheres of other Ministers and politicians that reside in your neighbourhood (it seems to me that there is nothing more accessible than these guys). Now, if that is the case, could we really say that the people in this forum (or a coffee shop) are detached from Somali affairs and hold opinions that are far from the actual reality in Somalia? I for one seriously doubt it.

 

If you want peace maybe you should go pray a few fajer prayers with your local ICU/Shabaab representative or buy your neighbourhood TFG parliamentarian a few ripe mardoofs. For what I know and BELIEVE is that if your opinion is solid and persuasive it will soon be repeated on these here forums as being the wise opinion of Sheikh Shariif, Aways or Mr Yusuf.

[ElPunto]

Dadku jaqjaq badanaa!

 

If Djibouti is a fantasy - it will become apparent soon enough. Meanwhile - there is dearth of any other reasonable suggestions or alternatives by the critics. Go figure.

[xiinfaniin]

Yours, yaa NG, is a misplaced post. It realy is.

 

Uncharacteristically, you chose to comment on the fringes of this raging debate. The issue is not whether Xiin is dreaming or not adeer, for that is really irrelevant to the issue at hand. The issue IS yaa el Haji NG whether reconciliation and dialogue between Somalis factions tfg included is the way to go. Whether what has started in Jabbuuti can be propelled forward. Whether maximizing peace, instead of war, can solve the Somali equation and satisfy its variables.

 

A word of advice for you may good friend: understand what the contentions are before you hastily start sketching with your proverbial stick.

 

Baashow: as always you’ve comprehensively laid things out. And brother Liqaye I am sure if the time permits him will come back and address your and my questions.

[NGONGE]

^^ We've done this before, saaxib. I didn't want to go over old ground. The author there does not believe peace is possible, any kind of peace. My words are to him. I would faff about if you want me to but I thought I'd show him where the water was.

[dhulQarnayn]

NGONGE:<--

[Liqaye]

Brother Xiin and Baashi I will more than willing to answer all your questions as asserted.

 

Xiin wrote:

 

I must ask you to share with us who you think factions of this conflict in its immediate sense are.

 

In the absolutely immediate sense the factions of this conflict are the Ethiopians and Al-shaabab.

Since this is an armed conflict then we must assume that the men with the guns are to be addressed across the negotiating table.

The TFG as an entity and I will keep on harping to this end does not exist except where ever a reconciliation confrence is held, and in the pictures that General Duke presents all over the forum.

The ARS on the other hand and I am refering to the faction in eriteria are only marginally better, but can only offer advice and guidance to the men on the ground and can in no way dictate a ceasefire or even set a period when the cease fire can occur.

 

So to keep on referring [in the immediate sense] to a negotiation between the TFG and the ARS [and factions thereof at that] will bring an end to violence on the ground is not realistic.

 

I say that because you seem to be suggesting as many did that tfg is irrelevant and Sharif has no constituency on the ground. Please don’t pull a Baadiyow on me by saying that you are a just an old soul waiting to rot in a European hut and collect whatever doll outs the system would allow.

 

That is harsh I am not even in the west bru.

 

Baashi wrote:

 

I have this feeling, deep down, that there is a deliberate attempt to dupe Somalis into believing (or even accepting the proposition) that peaceful end to this never-ending cycle of madness is impossible.

????

Really by whom???

 

Given the nature of the conflict, the pervasiveness of foreign interferences, and the determination of the personalities spearheading the drive to prevail by any means necessary, this conflict is unwinnable however you look at it. From that it follows that the best course of action is either to let the conflict take its course to its logical conclusion which Allah forbid will alter the regional map in a very dramatic way at the expense of Somalis OR employ common sense and talk it out on a dirrin.

 

Let us assume for arguments sake that the alternatives you have outlined are the only ones that exist.

Obviously a round table negotiation would be the obvious option for any one wanting an end to the decade’s long crises in Somalia, having said that I wish for the moment to elucidate what I consider for there to be for any negotiation to be successful.

Beyond the obvious obstacles to a successful negotiation, such as intransigence and dogmatism of the opposing groups e.t.c that can be solved by an experienced and dedicated diplomatic team the two major ingredients for a negotiation to have any hope of success is capability of delivering what has been agreed upon and, integrity in the negotiating process.

 

Capability to deliver :

 

Personally I felt that this was the most glaringly obvious shortcoming of the Djibouti process, both Cadde Nuur and Sheikh. Sharif in their eagerness to reach an agreement simply made promises that they could not deliver either on the ground in Somalia, or in the board rooms of their own respective factions.

Consequently there is no need to waste time in holding ones breath hoping for a different outcome to be had in this particular situation when the glaringly obvious is the only possible outcome.

But lets assume that the situation had indeed been different that it were the hardliners at the table so to speak, Aweys and Yusuf reaching the agreement, would anything have been different?

Aweys as the titular head of the fundamentalists could have, in the rosiest scenario managed through a process of consultation to convince those who needed to be convinced that a ceasefire would have been in every ones best interest, but even the rosiest scenario would have to have smidgen of reality applied to it, a ceasefire would have to be predicated on the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces in Somalia with in a set and very short time period.

Would this concession be given by Yusuf and the TFG? And if it were given, would this concession be acceptable to the Ethiopians themselves, since Abdillahi Yusuf would not be able to in anyway arm-twist or even forcefully make known his intentions to the Ethiopians, all descions in a negotiation would be between the Aweys group and the Ethiopians by proxy.

This leads me to the next point namely integrity in negotiation….

 

Integrity :

 

For there to be a successful negotiation, both sides must be true to their constituents in the negotiations.

My contention is that the constituency that the TFG represents can not accept any sort of peace negotiated or otherwise.

Maybe some of you might roll your eyes at the above assertion, but a reading of what the TFG is will clearly support the thesis.

The TFG does not depend on any group of people to survive in Somalia who’s imperative to supporting the TFG is peace in Somalia.

The natural state of TFG support among former warlords, careerist politicians and clan based supporters is the zero sum game of total damnation for the losing side as well as absolute impunity for those who win.

Nothing in the track record of any of the major or indeed even minor players within the TFG [with the notable exception of the prime minister] points to anything beyond the venality of primitive accumulation, be it of wealth, position or power, at the expense of the people in whose interest a peaceful resolution to the end of the conflict is.

Too imagine that this track record, this precedent would suddenly change because of some sort of realization as at the mount of Ararat by the prophet, is something you can wish for but which strongly believe will not occur now or ever.

An entity of such gross parasitic tendencies would have fallen within itself and died in what is now a hostile Somali environment, but for the support of the Ethiopian regime, to which it has to answer to.

An example of this is the fact that Cadde Nuur would have in a sincere TFG have had a chance to elucidate to pro ‘s of the agreement he signed in Djibouti and then have a free and fair vote taken on it.

Instead the two Commanding officers in Somalia return to Ethiopia and then come back to Somalia to give the two principles the “what for” on the situation.

The sole participation in the act of the venal crooks streaming back to baidoa, is an ardent hope for an impeachment or no confidence motion so as to earn the financial returns that shall inevitably accrue.

So if the TFG will lose nothing in the present situation, neither the support of the Ethiopians, neither the support of those who thru clannish and self interest have hitched their wagon to the TFG, nor lose the support of a hand wringing west whose every standard of success they have failed to reach, why would they negotiate a peace thru Nuur cadde or indeed Abdillahi Yusuf?

 

Baashi wrote:

 

Chicken-Hawk game is a game Mr. Sherrif is not willing to play. To some abstaining that kinda game is unforgivable breach to the “liberation” commitment and makes him a textbook example of naïveté or political novice who is out of his depth.

 

Well he is a political novice out of his depth, I only wish he would learn the in’s and out’s of basic politicking at some other venue than at the negotiating table to which it seems that some of us wish him to continue blundering at.

 

Baashi wrote:

 

You see one cannot assert that the civil war grew out of deep-seated differences between competing factions (tribal based or morphed into other X-based interest groups) and by the same token reject bringing the conflict to a closure through negotiation precisely because of the absence of viable faction to do political transaction with -- namely peacemaking.

 

Now this is where it gets interesting, my contention has never been that the civil war occurred due to anything else but poor leadership and consequently the winning at that particular point in time of the clannish imperative.

And that is why a negotiated peace in a strategic sense between those in the TFG who are the result of clan gerrymandering and whose very raison de etre is the impossible balancing of clan interests underpinned by the pax ethiopica they envision, and the ARS/Al-shabaab axis who envision a united Somalia, based on Islam and meritocracy with Ethiopia well and truly outside the mainstream of Somali discourse and political thought will simply never happen.

 

Baashi said:

 

The other option as you may well know is to wait for one side to prevail. Pick the side you support

 

I support the Somali people, I would alternatively be a democrat, a federalist, a unionist, a clanist, a fundamentalist, a feminist, a libertarian, conservative, fascist, if I felt that that would bring a lasting or indeed even momentary peace to the Somali people. Like Talleyrand I would be on the winning side of every revolution just as long as the Somali people are with me.

 

On that vein I believe that the guerrilla warfare currently ongoing, the leakage of diplomatic support as well as the self defeating Venality of the TFG will lead to the day in 2009 when the Ethiopian occupation of Somalia will have its fig leaf blown away and the present conflict will boil down to Somalis and Ethiopia as has been for an exceedingly long time.

That is when negotiation can occur with any hope of success, till then brother Baashi and Xiin there is no merit to your arguments except for your genuine wish to see an end to conflict in Somalia.

[xiinfaniin]

Salaam yaa Jammaacah,

 

Liqaye: In the absolutely immediate sense the factions of this conflict are the

Ethiopians and Al-shaabab

.

Since this is an armed conflict then we must assume that the men with the guns are to be addressed across the negotiating table.

The TFG as an entity and I will keep on harping to this end does not exist except where ever a reconciliation confrence is held, and in the pictures that General Duke presents all over the forum.

The ARS on the other hand and I am refering to the faction in eriteria are only marginally better, but can only offer advice and guidance to the men on the ground and can in no way dictate a ceasefire or even set a period when the cease fire can occur.

I wish Somali conflict was between Ethiopia and Alshabaab. I even wish that it was between Ethiopia and a single Somali clan. I wish that was the case. But sadly Somali conflict did indeed precede the emergence of alshabaab and Ethiopia’s incursion into our land. The conflict has been raging for the last 17 years, and the factors that kept its flames blazing remain unchanged. There’s nothing more tragic than not knowing the name of the illness you have been living with for the last two decades. You can’t manufacture a new rationale for the continuation of our azmah. We are qabaa’il mutaxaaribah. That’s what Somalis are. That’s the name of our conflict. To ignore it is to delude your self. The warlords have names and strongholds. They have bases of power. They are there to preserve and advance perceived clannish interests in the absence of governmental institutions. That they only look after their political interest and fatten themselves up is beside the point. To rabble rouse and build on the mistrust among Somalis masses is how they come to survive. That’s what Ina Yusuf does. That’s what Cadde does. That’s what Riyaale does. That’s what Qaybdiid and Indhacadde do. That’s what Barre Hiiraale does.

 

Today majority of warlords and Somalia’s strong men are collected in one entity. It’s called TFG. It has not only local constituencies who support it, but it also has international and regional support. These are the men who crippled Somalia. Good leaders they are not. But they do know how to drive and continue Somali conflict. There is an entire history behind my assertion. I too once thought that these men could be sidelined. I thought Somalia was on the verge of transformational revolution. Only to wake up to a different reality, and watch how the country is sat back. How men whom I thought were experienced enough, knowledgeable, and religious enough succumbed to internal pressures and shirked to take a strategic stand. You can’t ignore facts. That Somalis are divided along clannish lines is the primary reason why our civil war continues. Ethiopia’s just a mere enemy taking advantage of our internal conflict. Its influence is directly proportional to our divisions and mistrust. To reduce our long civil war as a one between Ethiopia and one Somali faction is, to put it mildly, to burry your head deep in the proverbial sand.

 

Wallaahi there are so many different ways to demolish your argument that I don’t know where to start. Shall I start Puntland whose entire resources and military might has been spent in supporting the old man and this tfg thing. Is it part of the conflict? Shall I start with the host of other clans in Northern Xamar and its environs who fully participated, and still do, in supporting this tfg faction? Are they part of this conflict and on which part should we count them? Can alshabaab’s brute force defeat all of these sides of the conflict? When you talk about Somalia, which Somalia are you talking about? The Somali republic we knew and whose center had sadly fell? The South? The North? The North-East? What strategy do you have beyond fighting Ethiopia?

 

I mean come on brother! You can’t be serious to dismiss the men who brought Ethiopia and caused all the mayhem as irrelevant to the Somali conflict.

 

The real truth is that it’s better to deal with the warlords and strong men in one go when you have them represented by one entity, like the tfg does. Sharif might come across gullible and naive but he indeed seized that important truth. That he wants to address the Somali issue in a holistic fashion is also thousand times better than the piece meal approach you seem to be advocating for. This is a conflict adeer. It’s ugly and its main drivers have no morals. Talking to them in pursue of peace settlement is the correct thing to do however. Whether that approach will succeed is something we don’t know. Trying it though is no crime.

 

It goes without saying that alshabaab is not the only jihadi movement fighting Ethiopia. The division, and the segmented nature of our people could never be more pronounced than it is today. Why ignore it then and burry your head in the sand walaal?

 

If war is possible, so is peace. In fact, peace has more chance to succeed. The factions of the conflict are known. Majority of primary drivers of this conflict are onboard with the peace caravan…and the hope shall never die.

 

ps--Qurb Land = anywhwer outside of somalia, Africa and Middle East included.