What the ICU (Al-Itaxaad) wants

[Biixi]

Intentions of the ICU

 

The Islamic Courts Union has a single, very simple goal, which is to control all Somalia from Raas Kamboni to Raas xaafuun as Hassan Turki stated in a speach he gave after the ICU ousted Hiiraale in Kismanyo. According to Hassan Turki the recent ICU successes were due to the fact that they took over areas that were totally or partially under ICU's main clan control. From Afgio al the way Kismayu were under Indha-Cade and his kins' control. Kismayu was under the control of the JVA allience, which consisted of ICU's main clan, Hassan Turki and Hiiraale's clan. Kismayu has fallen to the ICU/former JVA minus Hiiraale. So areas that were under the main ICU clan control has changed leadership, names but in essence the same group controls it.

 

Mogadishu is somewhat interesting for many reasons. It is interesting the fact that ICU's main administration is located within and at the same time it faced the only real military challenge the courts have had thus far. Abdi Qaybdiid and his militia less than 300 men gave the courts the hardest fight they've faced. His 300 men have even managed to keep ICU supplies from coming from Marka and Kismayu and aldo kept Indha-Cade the chief financier of the courts in Mogadishu. Qaybdiid was the only chalange to the ICU, and they've learned since then to avoid confrontation with anyone that can challenge. This was evident in Mudug and also in Baidoa.

 

The ICU will manipulate majority of Somalis who think that they are fighting for Islam and fighting against Ethiopia. The ICU's lack of sophistication will lead to their demise. Indha-Cade few days accused Kenya of "massing Ethiopian troops wearing Kenyan uniforms and battle wagons on its border..." and warned that "...Kenya will not be peaceful if they don't stop their support"

 

ICU' main objective is control of all Somalia, with no other plans. Mogadishu experienced peace, garbage clean up for few days but since then nothing happened.

[Paragon]

Forgive me, Biixi, but I'd like to say that the very thing you predict will lead to the UIC's demise, affects your topic too. Could it be that your analysis is just the application of your own state of mind to all others you seek to analise? 'Lacks sophistication'

[Biixi]

You are forgiven. At least I've enough sophistication to realize that I can't achieve the impossible -- to make you all accept my view.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

ICU' main objective is control of all Somalia, with no other plans. Mogadishu experienced peace, garbage clean up for few days but since then nothing happened.

They definitely do have agendas, a sinister one may I add.

 

They have too many adversaries now, thus limiting to display or promote or promulgate their agendas publically.

 

A mini-version of their agenda happened in Luuq in mid '90s, a total control of every aspect of people's lives. They didn't had much time to expand at that time, however this time should they prevail, Eebbe forbid, the very Soomaali culture as we knew will be threatened. Fanatic men like Ceyroow, Rooboow and Turki ayaa power kuu qabsan doono, plus the Indhamadoowe warlord.

 

There will be no heeso, no saar, no shirib perhaps; no different gender mix in public, not even in public transportation; the imported, transplanted jilbaab and indhashareer will be mandatory; the hitherto proudly independent Soomaali women would be encouraged to stay at home; garka would be very encouraged, if not downright enforced; qamiis and cimaamad gaduud of Sacuudi-style will the de facto national dress code for men; the beautiful blue flag will be changed; the very Soomaali afkeena ah ayaa qatar gali doonto: "Shabaab, ukhtii/ukhii, amiir, abuu, ibnu, umm" has already made into vernacular, encouraged by them instead of Soomaali equivalent words inay ka isticmaalaan, in the last few months ee soo baxeen.

 

Maxaa ka qaldan dhalinyaro oo "shabaab" keenay? Maxaa ka qaldan ina oo "abuu/umm/abii" keenay? Maxaa ka qaldan hogaamiye/abaanduule oo "amiir" keenay sidee hada iskugu wacaan? Maxaa ka qaldan walaal/aboowe/abaayo, oo "ukhtii/ukhii" keenay?

 

Ma kalsoonida afkooda iyo dhaqankooda iyo hidahooda ayaa yar?

 

And anybody who raises a voice would kindly face the seef -- hadiiba saldhig lagu ridin.

[General Duke]

^^^They will lose, they have blown their own horn and too early.

 

. Abdi Qaybdiid and his militia less than 300 men gave the courts the hardest fight they've faced. His 300 men have even managed to keep ICU supplies from coming from Marka and Kismayu and aldo kept Indha-Cade the chief financier of the courts in Mogadishu. Qaybdiid was the only chalange to the ICU, and they've learned since then to avoid confrontation with anyone that can challenge. This was evident in Mudug and also in Baidoa.

The fact that they could not capture him and he went by land to Baidoa through their territories testifies to their weakness.

They have yet to face a real army and thats whats waiting for them in Baidoa. Their retreat will begin soon enough.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Paragon:

Could it be that your analysis is just the application of your own state of mind to all others you seek to analise? 'Lacks sophistication'

[Xoogsade]

Qeybdiid wanted to kill as many residents as he could as stated by him publicly and the courts had to keep that in mind, hence, the slow move towards his base and the how many days it took them to disarm his militia with intermittent peace overtures by clan elders and a promise to talk this insane man to disarm and leave the city. That war took place when the courts were not as coherent as they are now and they faced many fronts. Today, if war commences, it will be bloody and many who were not part of the courts will join motivated to fight by the ethiopian soldiers defiling somalilands and killing somali fellows. Some might cheer on for the ethiopians but certainly for many somalis it will be personal with clan politics taking a backseat once the bullets start killing somalis. Where there is a will, there is a way and this war is decidedly one somalis will be coming out victorious inshallah against Amxaaro and their stooges in baydhabo. Geerida waxay dhibtaa ninka dhoofka ku yimid ee cabsida ku nool habeen iyo maalin.

 

Waxaa qasaaray jamaacada Qeybdiid u noqday a source of encouragement. Baydhabana habeen madoowaa loola cararay by elders ee haddii la qaban lahaa waxaa laga dhigi lahaa a good example.

[General Duke]

^^^But they fought all out for 7 days in Si-Si regardless of the residents killing up to a hundred innocents.

 

What gives?

 

Saxib you dont want to fight your whole clan court power is based on the premise you defeated the gangsters of Mogadishu and that took you four months.

 

Saxib in Baidoa there is a strong Somali army led by Somali's and when the bullets fly it will be towards the Oromo, Eritrean, foreigners you have brought to the country.

 

You need an exit strategy because little IndaCade and Cayrow wont pass this test.

[Xoogsade]

There is no somali army in baydhabo. Only one clan militia brought there by A/Y and some more sent by Cade Musse lately. A somali army is one which consists of different somali clans united on a purpose and happy to serve their country. Efforts by the TFG to enlist all clans failed and the military wing of the TFG thus has taken a clan face after its failure. It seems all parties interested to serve there are warlords who do not represent their clansmen. Who wants to serve in an organization openly hostile to the people when the same organization was supposed to be a reconciliatory and transitional one? at least the attribute of uniting different somalis can be given to the courts as of now. They are made of indeed many somalis united on islam and others with stellar patriotism whereas A/Y's army are donated ethiopians and militia from his clan. Bal noo sheeg qabiilka kalee ku weheliyo meesha ee soomaalida sheegta? The local militia were sent back the other day because the ethiopians considered them untrust-worthy and back-stabbers. The TFG is neither a somali government that serves the interests of all somalis nor an organization that merits anything other than contempt. I don't understand why the courts keep insisting on working with these stooges in Baydhabo. They should declare the organization worthless and move on and they will find plenty of us supporting them for doing that. Lama soo dhoweesto tuugadii waddanka u sabab ahaa inay burburiyaan ee qabiil u dirirka ahaa weligood. Nin qabiil aaminsan soomaali ma xukumi karo so the courts are wasting our time trying to talk to the same old corrupt men who turned somalia upside down with their clan wars.

[Allamagan]

^^^ Adeer dafirada iska daa qabiil aan joogin malahan Baydhabo. Reer Hiiraan, Reer Baay & Bakool, Reer Gedo, Reer Puntland, reer Hobyo & Reer Jowhar, reer Ceelbuur, reer Gaalkacyo, reer Kismaayo dheh waay dhici kartaa in aay yaryihiin balse somali qabiil kamaqan malahan anche waxaa ku jira dad ka soo jeeda somaliland.

[Xoogsade]

Allagaman, That was before but not now. When the TFG was based in jowhar, they were successful in recruiting militias from different regions/clans into their army. But subsequent political events reduced those militias to one major clan. I don't know how successful members of the TFG hailing from Gedo were in recruiting men for the TFG. I know they tried and it was in the news.

 

You can google "ciidamada ka baxsaday" or something akin to that if you want and see it for yourself how many of those militias recruited from Baladweyne, Shabellada dhexe/hoose and etc abandoned the TFG camps. Some were even fired upon when they were fleeing. Saransoor left with his militia and I am certain Xaabsade is the ultimate ruler of the local militia whether they are part of the TFG or not. Haye, That leaves Militias from puntland who came to jowhar originally and those who were sent by Cadde Muse later and joined them in baydhabo. Even Cadde Muse had difficult time convincing many from Laascaanood who were part of the Puntland soldiers to come to Baydhabo because they said priorities were defending their turf and keeping the locals secure. There was an interview about that on BBC inwhich the man from there said they differed with Cadde on the issue and that same man who was in the leadership position managed to convince many of the militia whose destiny was Baydhabo to remain put where they were stationed.

 

Anyhow, however you look at the TFG, it is failing on many fronts largely because the President and Geeddi forgot they were leading a reconciliation government with one mission, bring peace between somalis and start the healing process, redress wrongs and show they were men for the people. They opted for a war when they shouldn't and that is what they will get, a war.

 

Xukun qasab ma jiro, if one can't win the support of the people he is supposed to rule, he quits and goes home.

[Bakar]

Originally posted by Allamagan:

^^^ Adeer dafirada iska daa qabiil aan joogin malahan Baydhabo. Reer Hiiraan, Reer Baay & Bakool, Reer Gedo, Reer Puntland, reer Hobyo & Reer Jowhar, reer Ceelbuur, reer Gaalkacyo, reer Kismaayo dheh waay dhici kartaa in aay yaryihiin balse somali qabiil kamaqan malahan anche waxaa ku jira dad ka soo jeeda somaliland.

Yaa kuushegey? Mise waa sheekadii ahayd waa laguu yaqaan? Teeda kalena waa kuwee Reer Kismaayo aad sheegeysid? Saxib, iga jaahil bixi sabata ay reer kismaayo u joogin Baydhabo.

[Allamagan]

^^^ Adeer adigu malaha qolada shaarka maxakimta huwan ee Sh. Axmed Madoobe uu wato kaliya ayaad malaha ku taqaan Kismaayo, huh? Ta kale Baydhabo qabiil soomali ah oo aan dad ka joogin malahan, yaa dafiri kara taa?

 

 

Xoogsade, waxaan kuu hubaa in meesha loo dhan yahay qabiil kasta, balse inaay socon doonto iyo in kale aanan hubin waa shaki sanahay waayo dhaan itoobiyaan laga dhursugayo oo goor uu imaandoono la ogayn caruurtiina halka asqo la jiifaan ma kasinoo waa la yaabanyahay? Xattaa walaalkaagi weynaa aaway ee Abuukar Baale ahaa xaggeed ku ogayd ma ogid in xerrada Daynuunaay uu Korneel Af-guduud ku siinayo tababar ciidan ee war ninyahoow aamus wa la yaaban yahaye

[Bakar]

^^ Wali igama aadan Jawaabin su'aasheyda. Su'aasha aan kuu yara badalo. Waa kuwee reer Kismaayo aan joogin Baydhaba? Waa kuwee reer Kismaayo aad sheegeysid?

[Jacpher]

don't understand why the courts keep insisting on working with these stooges in Baydhabo. They should declare the organization worthless and move on and they will find plenty of us supporting them for doing that. Lama soo dhoweesto tuugadii waddanka u sabab ahaa inay burburiyaan ee qabiil u dirirka ahaa weligood. Nin qabiil aaminsan soomaali ma xukumi karo so the courts are wasting our time trying to talk to the same old corrupt men who turned somalia upside down with their clan wars.

Xoogsadoow, sxb you lost me somewhere in your insinuation of solving the conflict between the courts and TFG through guns. If we briefly look at the recent history of the country, war has never produced any children nor any resolution but worked towards alienation of one another. The two leading figures are so disengaged that all they practice is insanity; doing the same crap over and over and hoping a different result. All they do best is the bidding of Ethiopia and you can't really blame them for that. Ethiopia made sure they get elected to office and gave them a manual to run the country. Melez went a step further and took control of not only their security but also their legislation. Ethiopia knows we're stuck with these so-called elected officials and we can't fight our way out and win the battle. The courts have almost united Somalis across the globe when they liberated the streets of Mogdisho from the infamous isbaaro but have not yet yielded any tangle strategy or result to bring the country back to its feet through talks and negotiations. Can the courts spare the war rhetoric for a moment and focus on negotiating with Baydhabo and work towards compromise? Isn't that the most Islamic thing to do now and crumple Ethiopia's goal of chaos and/or civil war of two major clans?