Chatters - ear on the ground exercise

[Baashi]

Chatters in the Fadhi-ku-Dirrir circles – another dispatch from ground zero

Waxa-La-Yiri weekend column

By Ma-Shalaaye inna Hawo

July 22nd, 2006

 

Two standing militia, forces loyal to ICU and TFG, are gearing up for a deadly conflict none of them is ready for. Union of Islamic Courts in Benadir made it clear that they don’t intend to wage a war against the TFG. The TFG leadership in Biadowa is divided on what to do with the ICU’s offer spelled out in the Memorandum of Understanding signed in preliminary meeting held in Khartoum two weeks ago – a meeting sponsored by a concerned Arab League. Because of deep mistrust between the two and irresponsible comments made by senior leaders in both camps, an “accidental†clash seems unavoidable.

 

Some of ICU leadership is trying to cement its gains in Benadir. They also want to build up the capital‘s security apparatus by putting effective single command in place. That needs disarming all the loose cannons lurking in the city’s alleys. All of these tasks require political consensus of how best to disarm the loose cannons. Time is the essence here and another fight with foreign backed TFG is the last thing they want at this point of time.

 

By the same token, the TFG is in deep dhooqo. The ground the Baidowa faction stands on is cracking. There are serious differences within TFG leadership. For starters the speaker of the parliament Mr. Sherrif who hails from Biadowa wants to continue the dialogue between the TFG and ICU. On the other hand, Yussuf wants to get his militia in a military footing first before sitting down with ICU.

 

As a military man he believes in negotiating from position of strength; whereas Geedi doesn’t want to engage with the ICU at all. Geedi is deeply troubled by the fall of his hometown and from his vantage point he regards the ICU as occupiers who hail from a particular clan; an erroneous view that ignores the tribal composition of the ICU forces and leadership as well.

 

It stands to reason that another conflict is not only disastrous in a humanitarian point of view but it is also a mutually assured destruction in the both camps. The legitimacy of TFG will evaporate overnight if and when they get bogged down in non winnable civil war. Abdullahi knows AU boots won’t march on Somali soil so long the civil war is raging in that part of the country. For a peace-keeping force to get deployed there has to be a peace to maintain and willing factions to disarm!

 

Likewise the ICU will face a formidable opponent backed by Ethiopia. ICU has no indefinite logistical supply and they know that US warships are monitoring the sea routes especially Eritrean shipping movement. Not to mention the shifting allegiances Somali Muslims are known to practice when the tough gets going!

 

Ethiopian involvement is a complicating factor. This is a regional power that assures the TFG’s survival if worst come to pass. It is this Ethiopian protection that encourages the old man to boycott the Khartoum peace initiative. Melez Zenawi made it clear what his army has in store for the ICU if they threaten the fledgling TFG. His country will neutralize the ICU if they threaten Ethiopian interest he said. He conveyed this threatening message in a diplomatic language.

 

To Ethiopia, stabilized Somalia led by its friends is a goal worth pursuing. Stabilized Somalia led by ICU who has hardened fighters of Oromo and Somali-Ethiopian origin in its ranks is a threat that justifies, in Addis Ababa’s view, preemptive border crossing - an exercise it undertook against Col. Aways in Gedo not long ago.

 

However you look at Somali conflict and its history Ethiopia has always played a central and critical role. Current confrontation is on another level. It is the first time that Mogadishu came under the total control of one group. It is the fisrt time that the prospect of clan exploitation and the dividi et impera tactic have a little chance of succeeding, and it is the first time that Ethiopian friends have no say or control in all key southern ports.

[Xoogsade]

How about A/Y il presidente fires Geeddi and Ina Aydiid through the parliament and throws his lot with the Courts? That would be his best move that saved Somalia. These two no longer represent the clans they were meant to represent during the TFG formation. They serve no purpose at all. That is why perhaps they behave as if they have got nothing to lose by creating all these tensions.

[Baashi]

Muruqmaaloow firing couple of loners won't do any good. The best thing to do, in my humble opinion, is to go to Khartoum and talk to the ICU reps. By doing so, the old man has notthing to lose and everything to gain.

[Suldaanka]

And Awoowe Baashi

What will he say to the victorious ICU? Hand over your weapons or else? or else my master Meles told me he would come to crush you.

[Baashi]

Suldaan I dunno He can perhaps qoute Siyad Barre's famous line that "Dagaal will kuma dhashee, wilil baa ku dhinta" That may ring a bell in some circles

 

Your hypocracy knows no bound awoowe Look who's complaining about Ethios

[Suldaanka]

^^Awoowe, the difference between Somaliland and Col. Yey is that, Somaliland is no guest to anyone when it comes to her "national interests". And that includes officialy opposing any country that violates the UN Embargo on weapons and the arrival of Foreign Troops into Somalia, which both include Ethiopia.

 

But eventhough going to Khartoum was one of Col. Yey's plans what turned it upside-down was an 11th hour fax recieved from Addis with three words "I dare you!!". Now, you have to wonder, is he carrying out his own "interest" or the "national interests" of Meles?

 

The ball is back to you awoowe... but don't kick that rock nearby.

 

"Dagaal will kuma dhashee, wilil baa ku dhinta"

Correct me if I am wrong, but the ICU has nothing against that. It is him that has no control over his interests.

[Duufaan]

I want see a winner. we have a winner in moqdisho, why not we cannot have a winner the southern somalia . I assume no one is pushing hard to be a winner.

 

Suldaan

you are out of your mind, Hargeysa is the best dog the ethiopian have, he never even protest.

not to mention Waraabe.

did not siilaanyo said "soomaaliland and ethiopian are historic freinds"

[Baashi]

Suldaan awoowe “interest†is very interesting word. It has no permanent foe in the political jungle. This word is what makes poltical world go round.

 

It may well be the case that Abdullahi is using Ethiopian might so he can kick the ball to the other end of the field. It may well be the case that he knows that he is sitting on Zenawi’s lap but sees it that shameful act as a necessary political give-and-take moment.

 

He is calling the relationship a one based on the “mutual interest†between the two neighboring countries . Does that ring a bell It goes like this Abdullahi will make sure Somalia will not be used as a proxy backyard by Ethiopian “enemies†and Ethiopia in return will assure the TFG’s survival. At this level of the game it is if I scratch your back you do the same for me kinda thang.

 

What would you call your SNM “Mujahids†when Mengistu used them as proxy force to destabilize Somalia that once existed? I bet it is one of those “mutual interest†thang eh!

 

Make no mistake buddy I’m no fan for the old man. As a Somaliweyn sympathizer I abhor everything Ethiopian (politically speaking of course). I oppose the E factor in our politics. Now that qualifier out of the way let me say this one out loud: Consistence is in order sxb!