Bossaso: Boom in livestock trade brings in cash...

[Thankful]

No, I am not. Are you Markhir's information minister?

 

Boqor Bur Madow lead the way in the peace talks, many people were involved, but he was number one.

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by Mintid Farayar:

Gentlemen,

Not to highjack your discussion with Duke, but there's been some misunderstandings regarding my interest in the livestock numbers for the 2 ports.

 

I'm too lazy to retype what I wrote in the other thread so I will just copy and paste it into here:

 

As for you, Xiin, shallow analysis as usual.

 

The reason I found the charts presented by 'The Point' to be so interesting is:

 

Berbera traditional has handled the bulk of livestock for all of the former Somalia from independence on. Everyone with a scintilla of awareness knows that. The reasons for that are logical - it being the only deepwater port in the area besides Djibouti. In addition, the real trade in livestock for Somalis is with the Saudi market where our livestock fetches the highest price vis-a-vis the price for our livestock in other countries.

 

Bossasso, on the other hand, being a shallow water port, cannot handle the larger traditional live animal ships, but rather mostly dhows and lighter, smaller ships with limited capacity. In addition, Bossasso usually exports to the Yemeni market across the waterway where prices are far lower, and if possible the livestock is smuggled into Southern Saudi Arabia (far away from the major Saudi metropolises and the higher prices).

 

In 2001, the Saudi livestock embargo was put into place, effectively shutting down the Berbera livestock trade. The only market then open to most Somalis was the Yemeni market served primarily by Bossasso (where livestock fetches about 20% of what it would fetch in the Saudi market).

 

If you notice in the charts, Bossasso only started surpassing Berbera starting from 2001 (correlating with the embargo). The increased numbers for Bossasso are still far less than the numbers for Berbera in years preceding the embargo. As usual shallow analysis...

 

Now with the embargo lifted, well, I think even

you

can figure out what's going to happen...

Actually - there isn't much depth to this analysis.

 

1- If as you state the livestock is going to Yemen since the enactment of the ban - then Berbera which is closer to the Yemen coast than Bosaaso should be getting that business. Berbera should also be getting that business since bigger ships can anchor there and using economies of scale can make a profit despite the limited markets. Which means they should be able to offer better prices to nomads and thus lead in the shipment of livestock. With its inherent competitive advantage Berbera should be the leading port in the north livestock ban or not. That it is not says something about the economics of using the port.

 

2. The fact that Bosaaso doesn't approach the livestock numbers that Berbera had in its heyday is not meaningful. Berbera in its heyday was the only real port in the whole north so one didn't have a choice when shipping livestock. Now there are two ports competing - so the numbers any one port can get are more limited.

 

Even with the ban lifted - Berbera has to up its game given how well Bosaaso is doing despite its many shortcomings. It's not clear at all at this point that Berbera will regain it's role as the leading port of the north as a result of the lifting of the ban.

[Mintid Farayar]

The Point,

 

My friend, you're letting emotions get in the way of your cool analysis. Just to further buttress my point, just a few days ago after the ban was lifted, a ship left Berbera with 220,000 head of livestock(goats and sheep). That's one ship in one day.

BBC Link

 

Compare that to the numbers you've posted and you'll see the validity of my earlier statement. Thus, the 220,000 is double the monthly average for the busiest year(2006) reported by Bossasso.

 

It's this reality that our ONLF-supporting brothers allude to earlier in this same thread.

[ElPunto]

^I'd love for you to specifically point out to me where I got emotional. At this point - it's too early to tell - to arrive at any reasonable conclusions one needs to wait until a full year has passed from the lifting of the ban. Then we'll compare notes. But the holes in your analysis regarding the period of the ban still stand.

[Mintid Farayar]

Would it further convince you if I give you a link to interviews with Adde Muse and his relative/advisor Liban Boqor where they discuss their plans of enticing Emirati businessmen to invest in turning Bossasso into a deepwater port - in order to compete with Berbera and Djibouti in the future?

 

That's why I refered to emotions, because this is a very easily verified reality by any Somali watcher. I'm extremely grateful to you for posting those original links, though!

 

Below I've posted a report explaining exactly what I've stated in previous postings from the same UN Sources you've gotten your stats from.

 

It also refers to how, for the bulk of livestock exports from the former Somalia, Saudi Arabia accounts for 98%, while the UAE(Emiratis) and Yemen account for the remaining 2%. This should answer the question posted by a previous poster regarding other markets!

The Berbera Lifeline - UN Report

[ElPunto]

^As I stated the holes in your analysis of the period of the ban still stand. What you have written above does not counter that.

 

I still fail to see how I responded emotionally. I certainly did not deny that Berbera is a deepwater port or that being a deepwater port is a competitive advantage. Perhaps it's better for you to make a strategic withdrawal on that charge

 

As to the report - I certainly have no qualms with it but I'm certainly not disputing the facts therein just pointing out the flaws of your analysis.

[Mintid Farayar]

Like you said earlier, young lady, the end-of-year stats will show the truth. In less than a week though, the numbers (Berbera 220,000 vs Bossasso 40,000) seem to be supporting my analysis, not yours.

 

I will make a strategic withdrawal on the charge of your emotions(as you suggested), since I have no means to prove it.

[ElPunto]

^Young lady? Now you're just being an a$$. I would call you a young lady but that would be demeaning to them

 

There are 2 separate issues here. The export business at both ports during the period of the ban and the export business going forward. I've exposed the shallowness of your analysis regarding the first issue. And I have received nothing to counter that. On the second issue - I said in time we will all know which port has grabbed the new business since the lifting of the ban. To actually point to a trend you have to have the luxury of time not one week's worth of data.

 

I guess this settles it.

[Mintid Farayar]

It's obvious by your response which one of us is more emotionally attached to what the numbers do, could, and will tell.

 

I will leave it there.

[ElPunto]

^I thought you decided to back off your 'emotional' charge since you couldn't prove it. Is it back again?

 

In an analysis if you misrepresent what the numbers do, could and will tell us - I have the prerogative to question such an analysis. Rather than providing an adequate response(or simply keeping quiet) you engage in stunts. And then you have the gall of telling me I have an emotional attachment. :eek:

[Mintid Farayar]

OK, so what exactly is your position-statement on this? You keep dancing around the issue with "faulty" and "Shallow" analysis accusations but what do you believe?? Let's put it into writing since we're both referring to the same numbers.

 

I'll tell you clearly what I'm claiming - Berbera, under the conditions of no Saudi livestock embargo - was and will remain the premier livestock exportation port for the former Somalia.

 

Are you, for the record, disagreeing with that? My claim is- the years 2001-2008 were an anamoly due to market conditions in which more than 90% of the demand disappeared.

 

Try to keep the emotion in check, though...

[Peace Action]

Macno Yare stop digging. You lost the argument and you are the emotional one. The best course for you is to wait one year and then compare data.

[NASSIR]

war ileen mintid waa la heley.

[Mintid Farayar]

Wakhtigii baa la gaadhey

Call the troops!

 

Gentlemen, The Point does not need your Amen corner. Let the lady answer my question on her own.

 

P.Action, you've seen many things but Mintid getting emotional is not one of them. But you're amusing, if that's any consolation.

[Qudhac]

berbera at its lowest point of productivity ever

and bossaso highest ever activity are roughly the same thats all that these charts show. once berbera picks up as it just did with 220,00 first of many shows its simply no competetion.

 

 

as the 400,000 filled animal quarentine in berbera testifies to that.

 

 

it was simply mouse coming out to play whiles the cat is away