The Somali civil war is moving to Northern regions while the culprits like Cali Kh. Galaydh is sipping latte in America.

[galbeedi]

It was the single biggest loss of life in a Somali tribal war probably for the last ten years. The latest report indicate that the war in Dhumay,  southern Sool,  has produced a huge causality--70 dead and 80 wounded--even seen in recent history.

 

If you think this is just another misguided Somali tribal insanity, you are mistaken. It is purely a political , just as the one in Ceel Af weyn, Sanaag was. Political wars among tribes are usually ignited and inflamed by outside sources that doesn't live among the fighting communities.

 

At the same time , the biggest culprit or the originator of this war is none other than Cali Khalif Galaydh.  He personally started a Khaatumo project for a self rule for the inhabitants of the Sool region. Some say he did his best while others claim that he neither did  have the patience nor the capacity to achieve that huge task. Some even say that he was never serious about the project in the first place other than punish his old political rivals.

 

There is a humanitarian moto which says , If you can't help or alleviate a problem do not make it worse ( Haddadan waxba ka qaban Karin ha uga sii darin). As early as 2016, Galaydh had realized that he couldn't get the support of the  people in  Sool despite his fruitless efforts. He could not even get a quarter , 25% of the Khaatumo region. He was sidelined both from those who rejected his Khaatump project in Puntland and those who initially rode with his false caravan. 

 

On thing that Ahmed Siilaanyo and to some extend Somali leaders had learned of lately is that almost every thing and everyone  is for sale including their souls.  When cash payments and negotiations go hand in hand, expect a failure.  Galaydh and his entourage were  dining  and celebrating and sleeping in Hargeisa hotels with the government check book while talking to the Sillanyo government. Since Galaydh was abandoned by both sides of the Sool constituents, the Hargeisa administration understood that as a non violent constitutional negotiator, he would not not pose a serious threat to the system. Further more, the third group of Soolers who were in Hargeisa saw him as a threat to replace them in their cushy  jobs.

 

On the military side, Galaydh encouraged the Somaliland government to arm his Bahararsame Sub clan as Galaydh's militia which is one of the fighting sub clans in Dhumay this week.  Also, a lot of buying and selling of elders and politicians was going on in the Sool for the last seven years. A huge budgetary  expenditure was allocated to militia commanders and their elders. A tribal or a sub clan commander might assemble 300 men and receive their salary on their behalf without registering to the Somaliland army. It is the same game going on  in Somalia from Mogadishi to Gedo where  tribal militia are masquerading as the national army.

 

Some of you have seen in the media about militia from Sool going back and forth from Somaliland to Puntland. It is all about the militia not being paid or their commanders pocketing their salary, they get angry and take their pick up trucks to the nearest border in Puntland. Then after few months, they realize that the other side is even worse  in terms of material benefits.

 

Hundreds of millions were spent to fragment the people of Sool, and the division among the people is getting bigger while the main player like  Ina Galaydh is sipping Latte in America. His own people are dying in useless conflict, yet did you hear anything from him? nothing.

 

The war is moving from the south to the north.

 

Some might think this as an exaggeration, but the shoe seem to be fitting in that direction. 

 

Today In southern Somalia there is no huge tribal clashes. Other than Farmaajo instigated political division , Things are dying down in Galmudug. There is no huge clashes in central Somalia. Few clashes might flare in Hiiraan but nothing serious. In Mogadish and the two rivers,  the issue is political instability, Al-Shabaab, business related anarchy and other serious issues than can only resolved by  competent leaders with tough measures to bring law and order. Yet, there is no huge tribal clashes or the desire to confront the other tribe with military force. 

 

A certain clan might oppose the government while the other supports, but there is no tribal clashes among these tribes. Of course , there is a low intensity tribal conflict in Jubba area that is simmering for a while. In other words, the biggest open clan conflicts are taking place in Somaliland. Some might be minor while others are growing by the day.

 

Just this week, the Qardho based Colonel Caare rebels have crossed 150 kilometers to the interiors of Sanaag and raided Dararweyne district. These  are not border posts between Puntland and Somaliland , but close to Ceel Afweyn district in western Sanaag.

 

The southern Sool conflict is among two or more simmering in Sool, while the Tukaraq stand off is the biggest of all. It is the sign of times that these tribal conflicts  did not exist in Somaliland few years ago. 

 

Those in Hargeisa are acting like the empires who tolerated  the wars that were taking place in distant lands. Those who were in Landon were watching Shakespeare plays while the British soldiers were fighting in the Himalayas of the Indian sub continent.  In Hargeisa they are debating where to build a new  huge palace for the dear leader who never ventured outside Berbera since he was elected. 

 

It seems history is repeating itself. It was Mohamed I. Cigaal who in the year of 2000, discouraged NGO's from traveling outside  the town of Sheikh for fear of their safety. While Muuse is angry at everyone including the media the,  Southern civil war is slowly but surely moving to the North. 

 

 

[Holac]

Quote

Just this week, the Qardho based Colonel Caare rebels have crossed 150 kilometers to the interiors of Sanaag and raided Dararweyne district. These  are not border posts between Puntland and Somaliland , but close to Ceel Afweyn district in western Sanaag.

True, but Mr. Bihi has very limited options here. You either govern with a good system to bring everyone on board, or you do it by force. Neither option is available to him. 

[Suldaanka]

I do not classify these as civil war. Yes, people die but they are more local clashes over resources and revenge killings going berserks.  

These inter-clan clashes have always been a hallmark of pastoralist lifestyle since time memorial. In the old ages, young men used to raid camels belonging to their local arch-rival clans. However, these days, no one can come up with a clear reasons enough to sanction such lost of lives other than purely reducing it to mindlessness and senselessness.

Rewind the tape, a year or so ago it was the clans of Southern Sool region and the Clans of North Mudug going at each other  in far border areas of Somaliland/Ethiopia/Somalia. Similar clashes in Ceel Afwayn area.

In the case of Ceel Afwayn when the Ulumaa gathered and asked the two clans why they are doing this, neither side came up with satisfactory answer - Shaydaan ayaa naga dhex shaqaystay - was the overarching reasoning. 

With regards to the most deadly recent clan clashes in Sool region, they go back 2012. Somaliland has been involved in making peace between two clans. The Somaliland army was stationed between the two clans - which for quite a long time from 2017 until 2018 made the peace possible in those area. 

Just the day when the army moved out of the area and relocated to Saahdheer on the border between Somaliland/Ethiopia, the two clans went at each other again. 

It is next to impossible for the army to enforce peace for ever, it has to come from the two clans just like Eel-Afwayn. If not, then blood will be senselessly spilt there over and over again. Which is a shame. 

9 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Just this week, the Qardho based Colonel Caare rebels have crossed 150 kilometers to the interiors of Sanaag and raided Dararweyne district. These  are not border posts between Puntland and Somaliland , but close to Ceel Afweyn district in western Sanaag.

The issue with Col. Caare is totally different. It is a political issue and President MBC needs to resolve it as soon as possible. Col. Caare like he said many times, is a Somaliland soldier. 

[Saalax]

Good analysis Galbeedi.

[galbeedi]

Suldaanka,

I really welcome your analysis and response.

When I write these threads, some part of my articles are facts and accuracies that did take place. On the other hand , some are just my opinion that lean on certain direction. 

17 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

Rewind the tape, a year or so ago it was the clans of Southern Sool region and the Clans of North Mudug going at each other  in far border areas of Somaliland/Ethiopia/Somalia. Similar clashes in Ceel Afwayn area.

This is a good analysis that highlights the constant resource based clan conflicts which might be different than the one in Sool which has bot tribal bride , resource and political connotations in the same place.

Yet,  no one can ignore that these conflicts have roots on the political divide of the Sool community between Puntland and Somaliland.

Any way, I welcome these kind of counter argument and responses from your side.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

There is absolutely no divide between the garaad  clan  on Somaliland and the pirate enclave. The vast majority of the garaad  clan is on the Somaliland  side both the 2 garaad jamacs  and galaydh. There is no we coming to Somaliland we cherish peace and stability  one man defecting and 2 subclans  fighting doenst mean civil war.