Answering questions with questions? And you're right - I am a 'geeljire', have been one for generations and generations And Geeljire's have an instinctive dislike of foreign meddling in any Somali-inhabited area (hence my alarm regarding trends in South-Central Somalia) As for my position on the much over-hyped international recognition, I've written extensively on it a few years ago on this Forum in an exchange with the resident 'mad mule' of SOL. But suffice it to say that the real impediments to it are 'foreign powers', not Somalis. The larger world never cared what the Somalis wished for since pre-independence times (giving away of Haud-Reserve areas, the international rejection of Somali claims on the Western Somali Territories/Kililka Shanaad, etc.,). Now how about you answer my questions regarding your 'fortune-teller's glass'....

@ Carafaat Although, well-meaning, you're new to the game, saaxiib. That much is obvious. Like I've told you numerous times, you and I don't matter. It's the people on the ground who do. What do you predict for your project in the next half year? What will become of the TFG, the current vehicle for Somalia's and your hopes? What will happen after August? Things to think about-since you claim to be a betting man. Don't let personal inclinations/ties muddy your vision. Stay in touch with what's happening on the ground and assess from that vantage point rather than ego-centered debates around cafes.

Somalia’s future A ray of hope International plans to help Somalis create regional governments are the best news in years for the miserable country Feb 25th 2012 | from the print edition TWO decades of war and terror have made Somalia one of the world’s worst places to live. Last year at least 80,000 people died in a famine and 2.3m continue to need food assistance. Nobody imagines Somalia’s fortunes might easily be turned around. Many Western governments have long kept their distance in despair. That includes America, which suffered a debacle there in 1993—later chronicled in the film “Black Hawk Down”. Yet things are looking up. An initiative launched at an international conference in London on February 23rd could give Somalis new hope. Attended by Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, and senior representatives from 40 countries, it is the first push on this scale. The British, prime movers of the event, are pursuing a fresh diplomatic approach. Instead of trying to boost the “transitional federal government” in the capital, Mogadishu, the conference participants—foreign and Somali—say they will accept that the country is, for the time being, irretrievably broken into five or six zones of influence. Rather than put their faith in the feeble internationally recognised government, whose writ extends barely beyond Mogadishu, in the vain belief that it can bludgeon the rest of the country into submission, the leaders of the country’s various fiefs have pledged to develop a more or less federal system. The plan’s timing is propitious, as the Shabab militia, which has for the past few years controlled the biggest swathe of Somalia, mainly in the country’s south and centre, has recently lost ground and popularity. Ethiopian and Kenyan forces, with logistical backing from the Americans, French and British, have squeezed it in a pincer movement from the west and south. Moreover, the Shabab failed to feed the people in its zone of influence during last year’s terrible drought. The Shabab’s refusal to allow Western agencies such as Oxfam and the International Committee of the Red Cross into its territory is said to have alienated many of its former supporters. The Shabab shuffle At this stage the anti-Shabab forces at home and abroad, especially the Americans, have no intention of starting negotiations with the group, which has links to al-Qaeda, albeit tenuous ones—it was only on February 10th that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy head of al-Qaeda, formally welcomed the Shabab as members of the terror franchise. Furthermore, America and the West have no immediate plans to bestow recognition on Somaliland, the de facto fully autonomous area in the north-west of the country that was ruled by Britain during the colonial era before Somalia’s independence in 1964. Nowadays it is the best-run and safest part of Somalia. But in due course Western feelers may indeed be put out to elements in the Shabab, much as with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Western intelligence agencies guess that the number of foreign jihadists operating with the Shabab is in the “low hundreds”, though no one is sure. It is unknown whether the supposed leader of the Shabab, the 34-year-old Moktar Ali Zubeyr, better known as Godane, or the powerful figure of Moktar Robow, who controls much of the south-central area, is remotely amenable to negotiation. At present, Somalia faces a military stand-off. America operates a spy network there and recently launched a special-forces commando raid from its base in nearby Djibouti to free an American citizen from Somali brigands. It also operates drones from Ethiopia, providing intelligence to Kenyan and Ethiopian forces. They have gained ground against the Shabab since invading in mid-December, though the Kenyans have got bogged down on nigh-impassable roads. Their hope of capturing Kismayo, a Shabab stronghold, has yet to be realised. The Ethiopians have done better, alongside a proxy force of Sufi Somalis known as the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa (the Majority) or ASWJ, which now controls a wedge of land along the Ethiopian border. The Ethiopians took Baidoa, the second-biggest town held by the Shabab, on February 22nd. They hope to join up with the most northerly of the Kenyans’ three prongs of attack. The Shabab are just one of Somalia’s scourges. Pirates have caused havoc among ships traversing vast parts of the Indian Ocean, as far east as the Seychelles and as far south as the Comoro islands. Pirates have not directly filled the Shabab’s coffers, though they may occasionally have been forced to pay the jihadists a lucrative levy. In any event, the pirates’ power may have peaked. The number of hijackings has declined dramatically, thanks to international maritime patrols and the arming of guards on ships. But worryingly for shippers, ransom demands may have risen as the number of captured ships falls. One recent demand was for a princely $11m. On dry land, the official government of Somalia remains feeble in the extreme. “It doesn’t even control Mogadishu,” says a Western aid worker with long experience of Somalia. “It doesn’t administer anything. AMISOM [the African Mission to Somalia] does it all. [somali] warlords control all the towns—and the aid.” AMISOM, which has a joint mandate from the African Union and the UN, consists of some 10,000 troops, mainly Ugandans with some Burundians, soon to be increased to 17,000. The Ugandan acting foreign minister, Okello Oryem, said: “We’re here for as long as it takes.” The troops have gained ground in Mogadishu in the past few months, having cleared the Shabab out of the Bakara market, the capital’s main trading hub. But they still face an average of five attacks a day by the Shabab, according to Western intelligence sources. Moreover, AMISOM has yet to counter-attack the Shabab deep in the countryside. Rival anti-Shabab Somali administrations, based largely on clans, are entrenching themselves in their respective areas. Somaliland, where the **** clan predominates under a more or less democratic mandate, has a strong lobby, especially in Britain, seeking to gain full independence. The Ethiopians trade with Somaliland and use its port of Berbera but hold back from endorsing full independence. Puntland, according to a Western diplomat, is “about 10-12 years behind Somaliland” but seeks to entrench the autonomy it has achieved within a federal Somalia. Its president, Muhammad Farole, has support from the diaspora in Australia. Galmudug is another, smaller zone that has become a cohesive semi-independent fief, south of Puntland and north of the zone which the ASWJ more or less controls. Jubaland, in the far south, is sometimes envisaged as yet another semi-autonomous zone. Lastly, the pirates control a coastal strip that extends from Eyl in the north to Haradheere in the centre. Inland the towns of Galkayo and Garowe have benefited visibly from pirate wealth. The plan to cantonise Somalia carries risks. The resulting country will still be corrupt and illiberal, though possibly less dysfunctional and deadly. The London plan is relatively crude—the tribal federations now being empowered are hardly ideal partners. The plan also depends on the success of foreign soldiers. Kenya’s floundering force could become a recruiting sergeant for the Shabab if its occupation of Somalia’s southern fringes becomes permanent or fails to benefit the locals. Success furthermore depends on tribal federations working together in a constituent assembly that is yet to be set up. Lack of co-operation between regional power-brokers has long been a problem. At the same time, an eventual break-up of the country becomes more likely with cantonisation. Disputes over internal borders could eventually lead to bloodshed. The Somali body politic is on life support. Neither domestic nor regional actors have much trust in each other, so the cantonisation plan is a long shot. But nothing else has worked since the last functioning state collapsed in 1991.

Ngonge, He seems to be hitting on the same misgivings as Ulusow - just a bit more diplomatic in his protest.

Not a single, logical refutation of the points raised in the original piece. Only Ngonge comes back by simply conceding the coming 'trusteeship' and proclaiming that 'trusteeship' is good for the current time and situation. Others fall back to the usual character assassination common to their usual postings. I don't know the Ulosow character, don't care to know him, but his prognosis seems closer to the current situation than the mirages peddled by some on these Boards. I can strongly disagree with the author's stance on Somaliland while conceding the accurate reading of the situation presented by him. Like I stated before: Attack the argument, not the man....

NGONGE;796096 wrote: p.s. Mintid, I know you are looking at all of this from the point of view of Somaliland. However, if you forget your a Somalilander for a minute and put yourself in the shoes of a Somalia-Somali, what are your views on this conference and its results, saaxib? Go on, amuse yourself and play devil's advocate for a bit. Just a quick note in reply: The Conference has cemented the creeping trusteeship slowly being imposed on South-Central Somalia. Little by little, the various apparatus of governing are being taken away from Somalis. First it was security-related matters, now it's financial oversight and budgeting. Nowhere do I see an effort to create legitimate, governing Somali institutions (all reported budgeting is for foreign-led and foreign-manned projects within South-Central Somalia). NGONGE;796096 wrote: This conference is the nearest Somalia came to fixing itself in over twenty years. Would Mr Uluso prefer that it goes back to the hands of asbaaro experts and mad warlords? Beggars can't be choosers O Mr "Pledge for the disbursement of at least 10 billion dollars in the next 4 years". "nearest Somalia came to fixing itself"??? That's precisely the point - it's not Somalia fixing itself, it's foreign interests attempting to lay their own blueprint on the Somali situation. "Would Mr Uluso prefer that it goes back to the hands of asbaaro experts and mad warlords?" That's assuming South-Central Somalia has only produced 'asbaaro experts and mad warlords'. A Somali-owned solution is the only answer according to my humble opinion...

Libaax-Sankatababte;796084 wrote: lol@culusoow. Xiin ka waraysta ninkaan. Attack the argument, not the man. What do you disagree with in his analysis?

Dr_Osman;796005 wrote: I am threatening somalis at my cafe if they talk i'll send air assets cause thats what it is a mix of helicopters and military cargo planes and world class navy vessels to their tuulo :D Explains the nature of all the postings

It seems he's in agreement with our understanding of 'Clause #6'. Views it as a threat to the territorial integrity of the former Somali Republic.

He means well, though out of touch with sentiment back home. Or too blinded by personal circumstances to accept the writing on the wall. Laakiin, yaan la fogeyn. He will come around like many before him

London Conference stripped Somalia of its indivisibility, sovereignty and polity by Mohamud M Uluso Tuesday, February 28, 2012 The communiqué of February 23 Conference on Somalia, dominated by the International Contact Group (ICG) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia fell far short of all expectations. The promised new approach or step-change by the British leaders to tackle the root causes of insecurity and lack of functional government responsible for the inexorable decline of 20 years in Somalia did not materialize. Concretely, nothing in the communiqué responds to the solution of the well described dreadful situation in Somalia, a country suffering for wars and natural disasters. The reason is a matter of conjecture. The communiqué listed operational tasks before a national polity capable of pursuing the interests of the Somali people is in place. This means that South Central Somalia became subject to the alien paradigm of Prof Stephen D. Krasner, who in his paper titled “troubled societies, outlaw states and gradations of sovereignty” argued that alternative institutional arrangements, such as trusteeship and shared sovereignty must be legitimized if international threats are to be reduced and the prospects for individuals in troubled societies improved. This view seems operationalized through the New Deal of Engagement with Fragile States adopted by the Conference. In blatant contradiction to the statement that “decisions on Somalia’s future rest with the Somali people,” which is true, the London conference decided for Somalia and stripped Somalia of its indivisibility, sovereignty and polity. The participation of the conference by several delegations from Somalia for the absence of a national leader who represents the voice of Somalia before the international community did undercut Somalia’s common cause. The invitation of the ousted Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan under Ethiopian pressure was also a snub to large segment of the Somali population and show of Ethiopia’s veto power over Somalia. The Communiqué, released before the conference took place, failed to take into consideration most of the suggestions made by members of the Somali communities, of the opinions of many international leaders like Mary Robinson who emphasized the humanitarian consideration over military actions and President Ismail Omar Ghelle who strongly advocated for the top priority of funding Somali forces over AMISOM forces, of the Guardian editorial strongly suggesting the consideration for disengagement and of other international experts. With political mastery, to deflect any criticism from the humanitarian activists, UK addressed AMISOM funding outside the conference. On Feb 22, it has pushed through the UN Security Council a resolution that increased AMISOM forces from 12,000 to 17, 731 with the annual budget of $ 550 million. Reimbursement for lost or destroyed equipment during the fighting is extra budget. Kenya complains about the rejection of $ 10 million requested for its navy while it received from UK $ 15 million with no string attached. The humanitarian assistance offered during the conference could be intended to mitigate the expected human disaster due to the escalation of military operations in Somalia. The communiqué ignored to reaffirm the territorial integrity, sovereignty and unity of Somalia. Also, it remained silent about the illegal fishing and dumping of toxic off the Somali coast, the indiscriminate shelling and killing of civilians by UN supported forces and the frequent Ethiopian military incursions into Somalia. Out of the 26 paragraphs of the communiqué, only 7 paragraphs contain new information. The important tasks spelled out in these paragraphs are the followings: 1. Endorsement of the unpopular UNPOS political process based on making new constitution in the midst of civil war, regional secessions, social distrust and foreign interventions. The constituencies of the new constitution are not defined. The Switzerland government is the major backer of the new federal constitution. This is unprecedented political misjudgment. 2. End of the Transitional Federal Institutions in August 20, 2012. The communiqué leaves out what will follow but the list of activities detailed in it foretells a standby arrangement. 3. Introduction of parallel Somali political processes at the national and local levels. It is not clear the relationship between these two parallel processes. 4. Establishment of a New Stability Fund. Local areas will be supported based on the new deal for engagement with fragile states recently adopted in Busan and on the stabilization strategies prepared by both IGAD and TFG. 5. Confirmation that Somaliland is not part of Somalia or of TFG. On February 23, 2012, Somalia ended to exist internationally. Over the next three years, Somaliland will receive directly from UK about £105 million for promoting prosperity, tackling poverty and consolidating progress on stability and democracy. 6. Adherence to shady agreements like Djibouti Agreement, Kampala Accord, Roadmap and Garowe principles I and II. These agreements violate the Transitional Federal Charter and obstruct genuine political process. 7. Establishment of a Joint Financial Management Board (JFMB) in conflict with the Transitional Federal Charter and any national Constitution. JFMB reinforces the lack of transparency and accountability because Board members are foreigners. International and domestic resources are regulated by different rules and principles. French Republic, United Kingdom, European Union and the World Bank are the initial members of JFMB. The President, the Prime Minister and the Minister of finance of the TFG will initially represent the TFG on the JFMB. This arrangement violates the Somali constitution and domestic laws. JFMB will usurp the establishment of the offices of the Ministry of Finance, Accountant General, Central Bank and Auditor General. JFMB operates only in South Central Somalia. A functional government can fight corruption. 8. Commitment to support the Regional Maritime Capacity Building Initiatives. Somalis are not aware any of these initiatives developed and funded for European maritime security. 9. Establishment of a Regional Anti Piracy prosecutions and intelligence coordination centre in the Seychelles for Somali Citizens. From this plan transpires the time-span assumed for the continuation of the Somali crisis. 10. Implementation of the Financial Action Tasks Force’s recommendations on Combating Money Laundering and the Financing of Terrorism. Without having responsible functional Somali Government in place, this decision could endanger the lives of millions of Somalis for suspicion or precautious justifications. 11. Collaboration with the Global Counter Terrorism Forum and other international and regional bodies. 12. Implementation of Mogadishu Recovery and Stabilization plan. This is very much needed plan but it could be used against national needs and goals. 13. Implementation of Djibouti Code of Conduct and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Somalia as the most failed state in the world lacks the authority and capacity to implement this responsibility. 14. Establishment of a “Core Group of Engaged Countries” that would drive progress in support of UN, AU and IGAD efforts. Some of the unanticipated issues in the communiqué are the pre-concluded anti-piracy agreement between UK, Seychelles and Somaliland, the revival of EEZ issue overwhelmingly rejected by the federal parliament, the quick approval of the increase of the AMISOM forces with their financial support before conference, the concession for the secession of Somaliland and the formation of the core group of engaged countries responsible on Somalia in the foreseeable future. The Somali people are oblivious to the substance and meaning of the plans and programs decided on their behalf by the International Community and written in English. The wide gap of information, needs and interests between the international community and the Somali people will erode public confidence and support critically needed as precondition for Somalia’s prospect for peace and stability. Somalia’s socio-political problems, culture and experience are significantly different from many failed states. Yet, it shares with them the fundamental need for governance. My expectation from the London Conference was a focus on strategic measures to rebuild Somalia’s failed state at national and local levels throughout Somalia on the basis of new approach which encompasses the following four points: 1. Change of the current failed strategy of IGAD/UNPOS with its attendant constructs like Kampala Accord, Djibouti Agreement, the Roadmap, Garowe Principles, and Addis Ababa Agreement between Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama and TFG. 2. Call for the appointment by the Security Council of powerful, credible international leader with transparent political agenda for State building in Somalia. 3. Call for Somali National Accord which deals with reconciliation, peace and State formation in Somalia as the mandate of the Transitional Federal Institutions must end on August 20, 2012. 4. Pledge for the disbursement of at least 10 billion dollars in the next 4 years specifically for State Building. Humanitarian assistance will decrease as peace and hope expands. Divided Somalia into fiefdoms enters another era beyond its control. Nevertheless, there is always hope for better future. ________________________________________ Mr. Mohamud M Uluso mohamuduluso@gmail.com

The London Conference This conference was supposed to be a game changer. Unfortunately, it lacked the preparatory groundwork needed to generate a new direction for international policy on a complex problem. Thus far, it seems to have been ill-prepared with many foreign ministers attending solely for photo-ops with Cameron and Clinton. What did the majority of the 40+ countries invited contribute to the debate? What dramatic resolutions were presented…. compared to the business as usual that preceded it? The true beneficiaries seem to be the neighboring African States who will receive a further increase in their military budgets as well as continued professionalization of their armed forces by trainers from First World nations. The AMISOM force will increase from the current 9700 to a fully financed 17,800(approx). Yet no further financing was provided for the training/professionalization of Somali forces under TFG command. Up to know not even a single city block has been taken by TFG forces without the support of foreign forces. Key donors show a lack of faith in the TFG in its capacity to deliver political progress, governance, or verifiable military advances. No direct aid was promised to any Somali entity with the exception of the 105Million BP promised by the British Foreign Minister to Somaliland for the next 3 years. Most likely, even that, will continue to be directed through third-party NGOs. While playing lip service to the future success of the TFG, the Western donors appear keen on setting the course for the removal of the current TFG. Hillary Clinton was adamant in stressing the unacceptability of extending the TFG term in August. Yet a vague road map that would only create further political conflicts regarding who gets to sit on future governing/advisory committees is the only agreement in place for ‘what comes after the TFG’. So what did the London Conference accomplish?

Aah, my easily excitable little 'nomads'.... If there was confirmed oil anywhere in the former Somalia (and especially in those quantities) don't you think 'Uncle Sam' would have landed 50,000 Marines under some pretext at the prodding of the big American oil majors to clear up the little 'Somalia problem'? Wouldn't the Chinese send 20,000 workers in a 'friendship' gesture to build roads and ports? Look around the continent i.e. Angola, Nigeria, South Sudan... This is what occurs when there's verifiable 'black gold' under the sands regardless of the political insecurity present in the region. And it's definitely not happening in our neck of the woods. These Guardian articles are just rehashed essays from the old Los Angeles Times article of 1993 when 'Restore Hope' was launched. Except, that article pointed to Somaliland as the most promising region. I can easily post the article if some are doubtful. However, the reality remains no major oil company has shown interest in the former Somalia regardless of whether approached by Somaliland, Puntland, the TFG, etc. So let's not count the chickens before they're hatched. If Africa Oil strikes oil in the next 6 months as some here on these Boards have predicted, it will be a game changer for the whole region. Then exploration will explode across the whole Horn. But until that happens, it's all wishes in a cold Western winter...

AfricaOwn;794851 wrote: SL needs a young educated President or Vice President from Sool or Eastern Sanaag after the current leaves office. Absolutely not in the present circumstances. The carrot didn't work and will not work in the immediate future. Only the stick works. Las Anod and surrounding area are the perfect testament to that. They will learn to live with the circumstances and eventually become productive citizens of the Somaliland state. Why not? They're willing to live with Ethiopian, Kenyan, and Ugandan overlords in Somalia down South. Just pointing out the reality in the smoke of rhetoric....

Guru Oodweyne, From our previous postings, the outcome of this Conference was easy to predict for both you and I. As recently as three days ago, I foretold to one of our young 'unionists' here the conclusion to this photo-op event: Mintid Farayar;792157 wrote: Carafaat, You're out of touch with the Conference's objectives. The Somalis (all of them) are just window dressing. The Conference is for outside stake-holders to come to a unified plan/compromise on how to deal with the Somali situation (piracy, terrorism, endemic famines, etc.,). Somalis will be allowed to give 2 to 3 speeches(maybe, if the British are generous) and then handed a pre-agreed resolution to sign or follow. We'll see how it turns out in a few days... http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/62383-Turning-of-time-the-Somali-version-of-glasnost-and-perestrojka As for how the outcome impacted Somaliland, I see one key concession made to Somaliland in this new 'international blueprint' created for Somalis: 6.*** The Conference recognised the need for the international community to support any dialogue that Somaliland and the TFG or its replacement may agree to establish in order to clarify their future relations. This is a cementing of the original position taken by successive Somaliland administrations that they will only talk to a legitimate gov't for all of the former Italian Somalia instead of being one among many 'pseudo regional administrations' as so many political actors within the former Somalia had hoped for in their 'Federalism' project. It also dashed the hopes of some for the dismemberment of Somaliland into a Khaatumo, Awdal, etc., enclaves. This statement implicitly recognized Somaliland's dominion over the territories of the former British Somaliland. You'll soon see disaffected members of the 'Khaatumo' project slowly reach out in order to come to some accommodation within the 'Somaliland political' umbrella. This doesn't mean that all is 'roses' for the Somaliland case, given that our legitimate aspirations are being held hostage to the disfunctionality of our brothers down South. However, the key to escaping this 'Catch-22' has eluded Somaliland administrations for the last 20-plus years. Your comments regarding the current Foreign Minister ......... I'll sidestep internal house matters

NASSIR;794424 wrote: You should have seen how worried Meles' face looked when Clinton delineated what plans & sanctions are in store for the Somalia spoilers during her speech. . If you're implying the U.S. will sanction the Ethiopians based upon actions they take within Somalia, you're more clueless than I suspected. Ethiopia is the key surrogate for American interests in the Horn period.

This conference was about Britain and British interests. Plain and simple. Managing/eradicating piracy, preventing potential blowback of British-Somali terrorism (especially with the London Olympics approaching), and minimizing the humanitarian disaster/famines in Somalia (in order to minimize the cost to the British taxpayer). As a secondary objective - to streamline the actions of the outside(non-Somali) stakeholders on the Somali issue into a unified, coordinated approach. This second part will prove extremely delicate...

Mintid Farayar;792157 wrote: Carafaat, You're out of touch with the Conference's objectives. The Somalis (all of them) are just window dressing. The Conference is for outside stake-holders to come to a unified plan/compromise on how to deal with the Somali situation (piracy, terrorism, endemic famines, etc.,). Somalis will be allowed to give 2 to 3 speeches(maybe, if the British are generous) and then handed a pre-agreed resolution to sign or follow. We'll see how it turns out in a few days... http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/62383-Turning-of-time-the-Somali-version-of-glasnost-and-perestrojka Was I that far-off in predicting the pre-meditated outcome of this Conference? So many of my fellow nomads think with their emotions and wishes....

NGONGE;794174 wrote: Bah. I sometimes like to mingle with the ordinary people and have a bit of banter, adeer. Ha o bixin. Though the play with words that you're having there matters. It sets two distinct sides (TFG/Somali government V Somaliland). Last week, the world did not recognise (at least openly) that such a distinction existed. This here (future, clarify or relations aside) sets a clear precedent and tells all sides (but mostly YOU) how things stand. The world is saying to you that they'll ban the charcoal, they'll increase the AMISOM numbers, they'll help with ending the transition but when it comes to SL they will only help in the dialogu to clarify future relations. Again, last week your argument was that the world does not recognise SL's case but today it is spelt out clearly to you and all the naysayers. The conference yesterday, allowed SL to be and focused on the problems of Somalia (south). It is time for all Somali unionists to change their tune, the old trick is not working. :D Ngonge, This is the elephant in the room that our fellow SOLers are desperately avoiding! 6.*** The Conference recognised the need for the international community to support any dialogue that Somaliland and the TFG or its replacement may agree to establish in order to clarify their future relations. Somaliland is not equated with the other aspiring federal states such as Puntland, Galmudug, etc. Those are all lumped together under 'the TFG or it's replacement'. So even the administration ruling 'Somalia' is under ambiguous prediction. But there's no ambiguity to Somaliland's existence or representation of the former British Somaliland territory. No acceptance of clan pseudo-states within Somaliland such as 'Khaatumo or Awdal'. Overall, an acceptance in an international dictat of the same position held by every successive Somaliland gov't since Egal's time - that Somaliland will only negotiate with a future legitimate Somalia gov't as two equals on future relations. And we all know what the redline is for any Somaliland administration on non-negotiable items. But overall, it's been amusing to see the usual opponents of Somaliland on this Forum spin the latest spin. 'Saarka ha ka soo degaan. U yara kaadiya.' it will take a few days for reality to hit. On the home front, Somaliland political parties will engage in the usual 'push and shove' in order to position themselves for the next round of elections. And Somalia will drop deeper into 'defacto' trusteeship. Ethiopia has just added key areas of Bay and Bakool to its HIiraan and Galgaduud holdings. Kenya is slowly expanding its slow Jubba and Gedo acquisitions while AMISOM (Ugandans and Burundians) expands out from the Mogadishu environs. The so-called Road Map had thus far sidestepped the Somaliland issue - which had previously puzzled me. Now all is clear after this conference in that the Somaliland talks are the last part of the puzzle. --- A position Somaliland can be comfortable with as long as it was Somaliland/Somalia talks, not Somaliland as one of many 'gobols'.

Fiqikhayre;793459 wrote: I find Siilaanyo's absence from the breakfast intriguing. A lot can be read into that fact as well as some of the speeches.

Somalia;793437 wrote: kulahaa. Unique Man, even President Geelle said in his speech that negotiations should start between the secessionists and the TFG. There's nothing unique, he chose not to attend and opted for a meeting with the Foreign Minister. To have negotiations between Somaliland and a central gov't for Somalia has always been the Somaliland official position but I guess you're too new at the Somali politics fora to know that. Somaliland's issue previously has been the lack of a legitimate gov't to negotiate with on the Mogadishu side (one that can actually speak for Somalia & has actual governing control). This position of a negotiation between Somaliland and the TFG is actually a step back for your beloved Puntland since Puntland claims Somaliland should be a federal state like Puntland and not a separate entity equivalent to all the rest of the former Somalia. Djibouti has its own agenda when it comes to the Somaliland issue given the nature of the Djibouti economy and its proximity to Somaliland. Just clarifying things for you, youngster.

Somalia;793416 wrote: Here this one too. It's interesting that Siilaanyo was not included in the special breakfast for the Somalia reps this morning given by David Cameron. It shows that he(Siilaanyo), at least, got that concession of a 'unique and separate' status for Somaliland. Whether this will translate to any further movement on the political front remains to be seen. The promised British aid exclusively for Somaliland of 105M BP/$165M for the next 3 years will also make a difference in a very poor region. I still remain skeptical on the potential of this Conference to make a real difference. Things will only move forward when Somalis come to an internal agreement among Somalis - foreign prodding only exacerbates the problem...

Talaado, 21 February 2012 Maraykanka oo Taageeray Heshiiskii Garowe Yaasiin Isse Wardheere - VOA Somali | Nairobi, Kenya Ergayga gaarka ah ee dalka Maraykanka u qaabilsan Soomaaliya, James Swan ayaa shir jaraaid oo uu maanta ku qabtay magaalada Nairobi, wuxuu ku sheegay in horumar lag gaadhay dagaalka ka dhanka ah kooxda Al-Shabaab. Swan wuxuu kaloo sheegay in rajo fiican laga sameeya dhinaca siyaasadda ee Soomaaliya kaddib markii ay kooxaha Soomaaliya ay dhawaan heshiis ku gaareen magaalada Garoowe. Swan, wuxuu sheegay in dowladda Maraykanku ay soo dhaweynayso go'aamadii heshiiskii Garoowe oo u sheegay inuu wax weyn ka qabanayo sida looga baxayo xilliga kala guurka. Danjire Swan, wuxuu shirkaasi jaraaid ku sheegay in dowladda Maraykanku ay soo dhaweynayso shirka London ka dhici doona. Dhageyso warbixnta uuu weriyaha VOA ee Nairobi Yasiin Ciise Wardheere uu ka soo diray shirka jaraa'id ee Swan. http://www.voanews.com/somali/news/Maraykanka-oo-Taageeray-Heshiiskii-Garoowe-139819833.html

Carafaat;792159 wrote: Mintid maangaab, who is talking about the Conference. I am talking about that we have entered a turning point in history. Even you can sense that time is changing, as you have put away your sword lately and are awaiting the new chapter to begin. Carafaat, Don't lose the plot. I'm always amused by the amount of rancor I bring out in certain quarters It's not my fault your project is full of so many holes - always looking for a 'messiah' or 'messiahs' to bring back the 'glorious Somaliweyn' project. Adkeyso, xaaji. Adkeyso... As for a sword, no need for one... Somaliland is vigilantly protected by those on the ground and can't be hurt by ruminations around 'socialist campfires' or by 'Somaliweyn enthusiasts going through identity crisis on which Somali community they belong to' ...

Carafaat, You're out of touch with the Conference's objectives. The Somalis (all of them) are just window dressing. The Conference is for outside stake-holders to come to a unified plan/compromise on how to deal with the Somali situation (piracy, terrorism, endemic famines, etc.,). Somalis will be allowed to give 2 to 3 speeches(maybe, if the British are generous) and then handed a pre-agreed resolution to sign or follow. We'll see how it turns out in a few days...