Lately there's been renewed threads from the usual corners regarding the impossibility of Somaliland going its own separate way. What's peculiar about these arguments is the assumption that the question of Somaliland recognition is primarily in the hands of the South. The major impediments to Somaliland's recognition are regional powers and international organizations opposed to a new Somali state cropping up in the Horn of Africa. These range in contrast from the Egyptian obsession with recreating a militaristic, unitary Somali state used as a pressure point to prevent Ethiopia from implementing its NIle dam projects to UN agencies losing their control of significant portions of the 'defacto' Somali national budget. Given this reality, the last stake holders to be consulted on the Somaliland issue (or any other Somali issue, including the direction of their own political fates) are the political actors within the South. These same Southern stakeholders (from Puntland to the TFG, Galmudug to ASWJ) were ordered/mandated to draw up a 'Roadmap', write a 'Constitution' while being sheperded by an internationally appointed legal team (who did the bulk of the constitutional framing), given the termination dates for their current government, appointed their election dates, etc., etc. The whole process was externally driven, as opposed to an organic process indigenously crafted by the Somali stakeholders. So the question remains: How is it possible for those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction and the implementation dates of their political actions (the world's only officially declared failed state) to be in a position to decide on the fate of Somaliland? This supposition is simply a concoction held in the egos of a frustrated diaspora. The international community, observing the tension present among the regional powers, divided between those diametrically opposed to a Somaliland state and those sympathetic to the Somaliland cause, chose the path of least resistance - force a dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia on their future relations. This created a great deal of turmoil and resistance in the Somaliland political scene. To overcome this, extensive 'diplomatic pressure' was brought to bear on Somaliland political actors in order to bring them to the negotiating table. This could be observed through the changing positions of the key political actors(major parties and well-known politicians) as the ground work was laid for the first meeting to take place in London. To bring back to present circumstances, it was in the context of this previous narrative that the newly elected TFG President's initial speech and interviews were intriguing. President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud stressed the continuation of the Somaliland/Somalia talks as one of the priorities of his new, yet to be formed administration. What made this statement so curious/unusual was his choice of words: Hassan Sh. Mohamoud stated that neither 'military pressure' nor 'diplomatic pressure' would be used to bring Somaliland into the fold of the Somali Republic. Now any observer or analyst understands that a TFG that's still unable to protect its members from assasination on the streets of the capital it calls home (or pay the salaries of its own administrative staff and security forces) is realisticly unable to exert military pressure 50 km away, let alone militarily threaten Somaliland or any other entity in the former Somali Republic. Rather, it was the negation of 'diplomatic pressure' as a tool by this current TFG President that was seen as an extended olive branch by the Somaliland political class. Whether this change in attitude in Villa Somalia is implemented in practice remains to be seen. However, one must keep in perspective the actualities on the ground in analyzing the potential outcomes of the Somaliland/Somalia talks. To measure the fortitude and negotiating power of each side, one must look at what's at stake. Politicians, universally, are primarily concerned with keeping 'the seat'/incumbency. Would a Somaliland administration that nullified Somaliland's sovereignty realistically stay in power in Hargeisa? Would a TFG administration that dissolved the territorial unity of the old Somali Republic survive in Mogadishu? Both would be unpleasant for either administration and would face resistance from regions each administration nominally represents. But which would be the more impossible for the respective administration to survive given its seat of power (in either Hargeisa or Mogadishu)? The answer to that question provides a quick glimpse into the future of these talks...

My, my... What a storm a minister's interview posted online can kick up...

General Duke;872327 wrote: This is a good step. So the new Somalia president will work for the secession of the NW. This is getting better.. No one is claiming any such thing, Duke, so desist from the usual propaganda. Just some are claiming there are political groups within the South with which talks can be held and others where talks would be futile. The claim from the Minister is that simple! Now whether his hypothesis is correct or not... The verdict is still out on that in both the South and North. Personally, I'm a bit skeptical given the close friendship & coordination between Abdiqasim Salaad and the late Mohamed I. Egal before the former was chosen in Djibouti (Salad spent 6 months shuttling back & forth between Hargeisa and Mogadishu before his appointment in Djibouti). As soon as he became President of the TNG, Salad changed his tune to a hostile position vis-a-vis Somaliland. The relevance of this: Salad was a prominent member of Al Islah at the time...

Xaaji Xunjuf;872317 wrote: I mean Alshabaab basically is gone in hiiraan here and there some attacks. Xaaji, The situation is a bit more complex than that (like all things Somali-related). Al Shabaab maintains strong sympathies in that region due to the sidelining by successive Mogadishu governments of a major clan/sub-clan with a significant presence in Hiiraan and parts of Beledweyn. It's by exploiting this clan grievance that Al Shabaab was able to successively move into the town whenever Ethiopian troops withdrew in the past.

Maybe this interview induced the latest comments from AT... -------------------------------------------------------- Wasiirka Arrimaha Gudaha Somaliland oo sheegay inay lug ku lahaayeen Doorashadii Madaxtinimo ee ka dhacday Muqdisho Sabti, September 22, 2012 (HOL) — Wasiirka Arrimaha gudaha Somaliland, Md: Maxamed Nuur Caraale (Duur), ayaa sheegay in doorashadii ka dhacday Soomaaliya ay xukuumadda Raad ku lahayd si ay madaxtinimadda ugu usoo baxdo dad ay wada hadli karaan. "waxaanu ugu baaqaynaa xubnihii dhallinyarada ahaa ee fikirkaasi qaatay ee dagaaladdaas ka qaybgalay, haddii ay ka waantoobayaan oo ehelkoodii iyo dadkoodii doonayaan inay si wanaagsan ula joogayaan oo degan ula joogayaan, waxaanu u fidin karaynaa cafis, bani’aadamkoo dhami way khaldamaan, haddii ay noloshoodii dib u bilaabayaan, waanan soo dhowaynaynaa"ayuu yidhi wasiirka Arrimaha gudaha Somaliland oo baaq u dirayey dhalinyaradda ka mid ah Alshabaab ee ka soo jeedda Somaliland, waxaanu sidaas ka sheegay mar uu waraysi siiyey Telefishanka HCTV. Wasiirka waxa kale oo la waydiiyey inuu xidhiidh ka dhexeeyo madaxweynaha Soomaaliya Xasan Sheekh Maxamuud iyo wararka sheegaya inay ka wada tirsan yihiin ururka islaamiga ah ee Islaax, waxaanu kaga jawaabay "isma naqaano madaxweynaha Soomaaliya shakhsiyan, laakiin Soomaaliya waxa hubaal ah in wada hadal la samaynayo, xukuumadan aan ka tirsanahay waxay Soomaaliya la waday wada hadal soo jiray, imika waa lala sii wadi doonaa", waxaanu intaas ku daray " Raad baanu ku lahayn doorashaddii, waxa jira cid u cadow ah Somaliland iyo cid wada hadalkii lala sii waddi karo, marka xidhiidh aanu la lahayn wuxuu ahaa xidhiidh war is gaadhsiineed, waliba xubno aan anigiyo ku jiray xidhiidh baanu la lahayn, waxaanu ka taxadaraynay cidee ayaanu wada hadalkii la wadi karnaa, cideese wada hadalkaasi la wadi karayn"ayuu yidhi, isaga oo aan ka jawaabin inuu ka tirsan yahay ururka islaax ee lagu eedeeyey inay ku wada jiraan madaxweynaha cusub. Wasiirku waxa kale oo uu ka hadlay khilaafka ka taagan labadda xil ee uu isku hayo guddoomiyaha golaha Wakiiladda, waxaanu sheegay in wax u diidaya in labadda xil isku hayo gudoomiyaha golaha Wakiiladda aanay jirin, waxaanu xusay in cidii arrintaasi diidan ay u banaan tahay inay sharciga u maraan. Sidoo kale waxa uu ka hadlay degmooyin aanay hore doorashooyin uga dhici ijrin oo muran ka taagnaa oo ku yaalay gobolada galbeedka inuu ku jiro sidii uu u soo afjari lahaa khilaafkaasi, doorashana uga dhici lahayd, kulan balaadhan oo lagaga tashanayo siday doorasho uga dhici lahaydna ku hawlan yahay. Mudooyinkii u dambeeyey ayaa warbaahinta maxaliga ahi ay qorayeen wasiiro ka tirsan Xukuumada Somaliland gaar ahaan wasiirada ugu shilis ee xilalka waaweyn ka hayaa ay ka tirsan yihiin ururka Islaax, isla markaana xidhiidh hoose ka dhexeeyo Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya Xasan Sh. Maxamuud, maadaama oo dhawr bilood ka hor ururkaasi shirweynahoodii ku qabsadeen magaaladda Hargeysa, baaqna ka soo saaray ay masuuliyiin ka tirsan xilal kaga qaadeen.Haseyeeshee, wasiiradaasi ilaa hadda kama hadal, wax jawaab ahna kamay bixin. http://www.hiiraan.com/news/2012/Sept/wararka_maanta22-19378.htm

Xaaji Xunjuf;872298 wrote: Yeah i know but its better for reer hiiraan to have Djiboutian troops instead of Ethiopians. Even though the Djiboutian forces are under the Amisom command there was only one battalion before in hiiraan. Now the rest arrived i am also hearing news that Djibouti might send another 1000 troops to Somalia. As for their lack of efficiency well time will tell how they secure the Hiiraan region and fill the vacuum, but so good so far. I agree that it's culturally better for Djibouti to be there than the Ethiopians, however the ineptitude of the Djiboutian Armed Forces is well known around the region. I'm sure you remember Djbouti's performance during the border skirmishes with Eritrea. Eritrea, up to the current day, occupies Djiboutian land. You must also remember Djibouti's request for Rayaale to contribute Somaliland troops (under Djbioutian flag) to patrol the border areas with Eritrea - a request Rayaale promptly refused creating a chill between previous warm relations the two leaders shared.

XX, I know you're a fan of all things Djiboutian but a little reality check is needed here. The Djibouti troops have been securing Beledweyne (the town) for a while now. What you're referring to is recently arrived reinforcements. As for their competency, there's been criticism of Djibouti's performance within AMISOM. The Ethiopians, who were the previous military administration within the town, have wanted to retreat to the border area for some time but are still unable to do so due to their fears of Djibouti being overrun by Al Shabaab. Therefore, the Ethiopians have been forced to keep their troops on the outskirts of town as a reinforcing force. The joke within AMISOM is that the Djiboutian troops have only increased the 'qat' consumption within the town, not the security situation...

This news is dated. Matt Bryden resigned from the Coordinator position(Somalia/Eritrea Monitoring Group) back in July. His new position/project will annoy his detractors even further - but I will leave that as the future surprise heartburn of the future

N.O.R.F;869394 wrote: When talking politics he will keep his voice down no doubt LOL.... Of course! All the security guards at both Ambassador and Mansour are ex-SNM vets (oo wali dhiigu karayo)

Excellent and hopeful. This is what's needed in all the Somali inhabited areas. Fresh ideas, indigenous job creation, and decentralized economic revitalization. Economic growth and cooperation is the realistic, long-term path to Somaliweyn in the Horn, not political (the politically induced scars will take at least one more generation to heal).

Che -Guevara;869112 wrote: that says more about your inability than anything else. Surely, you could compete Puntlanders for top positions. I just threw you a 'jewel' in dueling political story-lines competing in the Somali arena and it goes right above your head..... As usual. Typical Che.... You're much better at your usual cheer-leading from the sidelines

People, you're missing the point from the Somaliland perspective. The argument used against the 'politically ambitious' who feel they might get a better chance down under (in Somalia) is that outside of Somaliland, there's no real opportunity for you. You'll always be a politically disposable tool, whose only use is cheap window dressing to show Somaliweyn inclusiveness. The performance of actors from Hargeisa, Borama, or Las Anod in the recent 'trusteeship' election a few days ago puts paid to this argument.

I haven't yet watched the above video clip, only read the quotation from Shinbir. If accurate: A useful starting point to open the dialogue from... The challenge is that elements within the TFG umbrella will see 'red' from that starting point and work night and day to create misunderstanding and distrust among the two entities. However, a useful starting point, none the less..

Abtigiis;868961 wrote: But then Mintid why do you think that international pressure will relent as the south (with its resource) gets stronger? That's a different topic worth its own time and thread. However, your thread concerned how the popular sentiment is changing in Hargeisa, a laughable assertion to any traveler stopping to change planes at the Hargeisa airport. The question is, for such an educated man, why do most of your hypotheses have 'waxa la yidhi...' at their core?

^^Spin must be countered as often as possible, less the more gullible or less informed take it at face value... Somaliland would not have even engaged in the bilateral talks of the past 6 months if not for international pressure. It would have sat out the mayhem as it had done in the past 20+ years. The game changer was the Western concern/obsession with the growing security issues/terrorism emanating from the South affecting their prized allies in East Africa. So, due to that overwhelming pressure from the 'international community', Somaliland was forced to engage in bliateral talks. I'm sure you're well aware of this, AT, yet you wax on about changing attitudes in Hargeisa b/c of people watching the elections in Mogadishu. Waar, we would watch a real election in Djibouti if it happened, as long as it was universally televised. Why not, after all, aren't we all Somalis?

I'm against any Somali elected leaders having foreign passports whether in the TFG, Puntland or Somaliland. it's a national security weakness that most Somalis have yet to comprehend! Pressures can be brought to bear from the gov'ts whose passports the Somali office holder holds. These pressures will eventually have a conflict with Somali interests.

Why waste your vote on the hopeless? Xamar is where the game is when it comes to the TFG and those who need a gov't in Xamar know who needs to be placated in order for the place to have a chance at normality. Simple, if you think about it. Even the 'gaal' in Nairobi understands that simple equation....

Abtigiis;868883 wrote: Surveys,like pikini, may not show the most important thing and therefore may be useless, but they are revealing nonetheless. One can imagine the inner thing from the outer layer. The 'pikini' or to correct, 'bikini' comment is highly amusing. Classic Abtigiis Abtigiis, I fear for the young women in bikinis on the tourist beaches of Mombasa or Lamu when you're out there in your 'macawiis' ....LOL..

Some would have the uninitiated believe that the difficulty is in how to 'break the news' to the Somaliland masses that unification with Somalia is inevitable. But the realities of the Horn, given the history of the last 20+ years is quite different. The more realistic question is how will 'some' elites in certain corners of the former Somalia break to their constituencies that 'unity' is no longer viable nor realistic. The bulk of the masses in both North and South have moved on from an obsession with 'Shanta Soomaali' and are more concerned with the daily struggles in their local realities. This is a hard concept for certain expatriates to understand who remember the beautiful landcruisers and even more beautiful villas 'Aabo or Adeero' used to own in beautiful Mogadishu (due to a plum position in the former military regime). All I can say to those still suffering from that disorientation is either return and adapt to the new realities or fully accept diaspora living and have your progeny live to their full potential in your new adopted countries. Alas, some dreams are hard to let go....

Abtigiis;868645 wrote: You are deriding the mention of international community?? I thought your request for recognition is addressed to the 'international community' and not to Sado Cali, Abtigiis, Axmed Madoobe or Maaddeey. So, in that sense, it matters to you more than the south. Mintid, "borrowed muscles" is not invented by Oodweyne. Unless you are developing the Maaddeey malady of bililiqo. What about 'defeated lot', saxiib?

Xaaji Xunjuf;868637 wrote: And the dreams of some continues after almost 22 years. It went from Somaliland doesn't exist we will not talk to Somaliland never ever To Somaliland is a little province that will be brought back by force Somaliland will break in clan states and the Govt in Somalia will support such clan states We will ignore Somaliland and it will self destruct Somalilanders will fight over power after their elections results. its always a small group in Somalia that is always fixated on Somaliland when ever something positives happens in Somalia. They try to link that to Somaliland in a negative perspective. Oodweyne was the first to coin the term, 'the defeated lot'. Another term was 'riding on borrowed muscles', which is how he described the tactics of this group. I'll let you fill in the blanks....

Carafaat;868546 wrote: The new President Hassan Sheick has visited Hargeysa and many other cities in Somaliland dozens of times in the last decade. He is a man who has collegues, friends and family in Somaliland. I have to disspoint General Duke, who thinks the new President of Somalia is an ignorent man like Ali Mahdi and Geedi. oo dhagta wax loogu sheegi karo, marka Generale ha is xiijin. Carafaat, Ooh, how I wish you hadn't shared that little fact with them, especially the family part It's been nice seeing certain corners attempt to fan the North/South issues (so they can further uncloak themselves). Notice the vitriol that comes from particular individuals at the slightest posting from Mintid

Somalis of the South are busy celebrating the successful transfer of positions between two presidents in very trying circumstances. Why is it that all posters attempting to bring up the complex issue of Somaliland/Somalia relations hail from those same marginal corners?? Is it because their only coin can be gained by pitting Hargeisa vs. Mogadishu? Is that the only way to gain relevance again after a losing hand attempting to gain the Presidency in Mogadishu? Makes one wonder...

To quote my good friend, Oodweyne, the defeated lot rear their heads once again! Study the history of humanity around you - those who've fought for a certain political construct and won in overthrowing their oppressors do not give up said 'construct' easily. As previously stated, Hargeisa and Mogadishu do not need any translators hailing from marginal corners to negotiate how to live side by side as two friendly entities.

Isn't it time for the kids to go to bed yet??