She is the former Former Minister of Women, Children and Youth of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

Arafaat, Good arguments, but identity is central to Ethiopia's politics, and different governments since Melenik have found a way to exploit that. While you and others frame the current situation about the direction of Ethiopian politics and the nature of the future Ethiopian state, the reality is the past, present and the future of Ethiopian politics are the same, an oppressive centralized state that favors one group over others. That has been the case since Melenik. The Derg tried to take the country in a different direction, but eventually, even Mengiste was forced to use identity in order to recruit and fight the Tigrian and Eritrean rebels. This was despite his so-called nationalism. True, Ethiopians are not as primitive as we are in terms of transcending tribal politics, but the struggle of Tigrians dates back to the 1940s ( May–November 1943 Woyane Rebellion). Selassie sought the help of the British Royal Airforce to put down the rebellion. That rebellion was not necessarily about identity. It was indeed about autonomy. But the rebellion's core support was based on identity. So was the TPLF struggle of the 70s and 80s. In effect, the talk of secession become common those decades hence the formation of deceptive federalism and the inclusion of Article 39. The Tigrians considered themselves as Ethiopian as Amhara, but they understand the share size of their population means their influence will decrease tremendously. This is particularly evident if Ethiopia remains true to its nature of a centralized state favoring one group over others. We are not talking about a civic-minded citizenry that will elect politicians based on merits. The majority of Ethiopians will vote along tribal lines that is if they are allowed to vote. Either way, Tigrians will come short. The bitter experience of this last year has shown them what is in store. There is geopolitics in a play, no doubt, but that has its limits. No amount of American influence can stop a hyped ethnic war with so aggravated groups all of whom committed horrific crimes. The best American could hope for a settlement that favors no one and stops the country from exploding. Even then, the core issues will remain unresolved. If you think there is a way that satisfies groups, please share. Lastly, I wish no harm on anyone especially civilians. I have witnessed war. But horrific crimes have been committed in Ethiopia. These crimes will figure greatly into any settlement. Some nations might not be as forgiving as others. Furthermore, most ethnic groups have empowered extremists among them, from Fano, Oromo Qeerro, etc. Even worse, the PM himself asked the common people to arm themselves and labeled the junta as something to be eliminated. Amharas openly call for the extermination of Oromos and Tigrians. What I wish has no bearing on the reality on the ground. And I am under no illusion as to what an outright civil war means for the region. It will be a catastrophe of monumental proportion. Somalis will not be spared and we can end up worse than what we are now. All of this does not mean we should ignore the possibility of implosion and brutal ethnic wars.

1991 Click the link and listen to the audio 'Cohen's Coup' In Ethiopia? WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM Throwing stones and wielding clubs, demonstrators took to the streets of Addis Ababa last week. They weren't protesting the remnants of the Mengistu government, whose 14 years of brutality brought Ethiopia to...

Sxb, we have no brothers. We will be yelling brothers as they slit our throats. There are only temporary alliances. And we really ought to stop jumping on peoples' wagons and start chartering our own destiny. Ethiopia is a country of being the oppressors or being oppressed. It does not matter who is in power. It has been like since the formation of modern Ethiopia by Melenik. The country is at crossroads. Whatever the outcome is, I assure you every nation will come out armed to the teeth and will be willing to go to war with its neighbors, with the central government, and with any entity. I stated in other posts, the outcome for Ethiopia will be one of three things unhappy marriage like Bosnia, a centralized state which comes at a price (which also means back to dictatorship), or loose confederation which may lead to outright secession. Whatever the outcome will be, don't expect a vibrant democratic and civic-minded Ethiopia to rise out of this mess.

Afars are all fired up. Galbeedi, An Afar PM will not hesitate to turn his guns on Somalis.

Galbeedi, A Somali has no future in Ethiopia and Muslims will not be given authority over historically Christian land. Any Ethiopian state has been and will always be hostile to Somalis. You are right Tigray does not have the capacity to march to Addis by itself and take over the reins of the state. To his credit, Abiy has put the West in an awkward position, they have a choice between siding with him or watching the disintegrations. Siding with Abiy means there is no one doing their dirty work in the region, in other words, there is no Zenawi, and not siding with him will certainly lead to some sort of confederation with a weak central government, and a strong periphery that will dedicate the center, or simply outright secession. Tigray and in effect other regions will not settle for a very centralized state. If this conflict showed anything, it is that no one is in a position to fully realize their goals. Ethiopia might turn out to be like Bosnia, an unhappy between people that hate each other.