Che -Guevara

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Posts posted by Che -Guevara

  2. Posted

    4 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

     

     

     

    according to gaylan media  Ethiopia wants to get the legitimate approval from Mogadishu to get access to a sea out let so what can happen here then well for sure  Hassan sheikh cant sign  an out let for Ethiopia in any territory in the north Somaliland it wont work because SL wont allow it  even if abiye says i got signature from hassan.  let me in 

     

    second  issue will be  hassan to give Ethiopia a sea out let inside Somalia , for Ethiopia to drop the SL MOU , now this could work but  hassan then has to give the ethiopians a deal as good as the one they had with Somaliland  naval base for a half a century  well can hassan sheikh do that to give them merca or hobyo cadale  kismayo or any other sea out let some place in southern Somalia , the only thing he  wins with that is Stopping Somaliland recognition he wont win anything else 

    No one is giving a naval base to Ethiopia  in North or South.

    HSM has gotten a political mileage out of this too.

    Kenya and US are pushing for talks in Nairobi. Somali delegation refused to meet the Ethiopians. There will be no meeting before Abiy rescinds MoU and any subsequent discussion won't about any naval base on the Somali coast.

    Abiy was also  told any further funding from IMF will depend on how he handles MoU issue and the situation in Amhara as well as Tigray peace implementation.

  3. Posted

    6 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    First time i see che write more then one sentence hmm interesting  good assessment  and analysis  there and i agree with you. But  i do not believe Amhara their majority leaders and people have given up on Ethiopia or greater Ethiopia.

    So where does Abtigis fit in all of this..

     

     

    Abtigiis and alike are mid-level managers who are at the mercy of the executive. Only men with principles and willingness to act can tame Abiy.

  5. Posted

    5 hours ago, Arafaat said:

    Even without any legality being there and ICJ striking down the agreement the second Somalia goes to the court, I fear that for the Somaliland regime this is outweigh by the the business prospectives of the deal and presenting a quick win for the electoral before the elections, irrelevant of the end result on its recognition.

    Anything is possible with Muse, Heego and business oligarchs.

  6. Posted

    5 hours ago, Arafaat said:

    Che what’s the end game you see for Ethiopia; where are things heading to. 

     

    The best possible outcome is genuine reconciliation and agreement among all warring groups. This will be a difficult task that would require serious men who are sincere in their efforts. With enough pressure from the West and the realization on the elites' part, that they will lose everything might prompt a change in their behavior. This is the most hopeful outcome.

    Abiy is the biggest obstacle. Unfortunately, the West believes there is no clear alternative leader that can replace him. The Emirate money and Turkish/Chinese are what keep in power militarily.

    Other groups that will hinder any peace process include:

    1. Oromo PP, this is the group that surrounds Abiy. Their support for him is strong. This is due to the fact they are now occupying the admin centers of the government and military.  They are amazingly corrupt and are robbing the country blind.

    2. OLA. Abiy tried to coopt OLA with the promises of positions within the government. They flatly declined his offer. Their only interest is free Oromia. They are most active in Western Oromia and Borana regions. They ran most of the rural areas and moved as they wished. Abiy tried to suppress with regional forces, ENDF, and drones, but it is winning OLA more fans.

    3. Amhara: The Amhara are most aggrieved. They sincerely believe Abiy wouldn't have defeated TPLF without their sacrifice. Their grievances are not only with Abiy. They believe they have unfairly been blamed for everything that went wrong in Ethiopia since the days of Melenik, and as such, every new admin would hit them hard. The Amhara can be divided into three groups, the first group wants to oust Abiy and revive the centralized Ethiopia where they ran everything. The second group has given up on Ethiopia. They come to believe a separate homeland for Amhara is a must.  This group supports the Fano movement. The third group is within PP. They once believed they could change the government within, but that hope has faded and many are leaving PP, and with their departure, PP has essentially an Oromo party.

    4. Ethiopian army: The institution is not what used to be. It is highly dependent on conscripts and it is beginning to look an Oromo party. Most generals and colonels are Oromo. It is no longer a reflection of Ethiopia. More and more soldiers are defecting every day.

    5. Tigray; The peace process between Abiy and TPLF has not worked out well for Tigray. From TPLF's perspective, their lands are still in the enemy's hands. Aid is barely coming into Tigray. They appealed to the AU to help in implementing the Pretoria Agreement.  TPLF still has two hundred thousand armed forces. Abiy wants them to join the war, but so far, they have wisely decided not.

    6. Eritrea: Afwerki feels crossed. He believed in a centralized Ethiopia with no ethnic borders, but he made the mistake of trusting an Ethiopian leader. He was blinded by his hatred for TPLF. I believe he is no longer vested in one Ethiopia whose leaders he can manage.

    There are three possible ends. The first and most difficult is what I mentioned above, true peace among all parties with acceptable political settlement. The second is an apocalyptic end to this ailing empire, a war to end all wars where new countries will be born.

    The third is a new alliance among Highlanders and Eritrea that can overwhelm Abiy and exile or kill him. The Highlanders and Eritrea are politically savvy enough to put their differences aside in pursuit of a bigger goal. 

    • Like 2

  16. Posted

    Abiy's logic, let Habeshas kill each other. Yesterday's friends, today's insurgents

    In an interview with ETV, Abraham Belay, the defense minister of Ethiopia, affirmed that contested territories such as Welkait, Tsegedea, and Kafta Humera, which have been returned to the Amhara region but are also claimed by Tigray, will be freed from "insurgents" to enable the resettlement of displaced Tigrayans who have been affected by the conflict. "Insurgents"? There seems to be something suspicious brewing in the PP kitchen, and that ain't smell good.

     

  17. Posted

    32 minutes ago, Arafaat said:

    If you start thinking from their and your clan perspectives, opinions and interests, and you sell own clans native lands to foreign companies because it’s in your clans interest and good according to your own clans perspective. what’s holding back reer Awdal to do the same and sell to whatever foreign entity? Or others for that matter along that long coastal line where many clans have native lands? 

    Where is the national interest markaa, ielen clan interest ayaa badashay national interest? I am just saying try to look at issues from a broader perspective then one’s own, specially when perspectives are one dimensionally clan held, as clans perspectives can change as easily.  

    Xaaji and others would have us believe there's something unique about Sland. Had Hargeisa been honest with its people and others from beginning, they wouldn't be in this situation.

     

  21. Posted

    In a related news, in Addis Abeba, it is reported that a large number of Addis Abeba police & federal police members are disappearing with their weapons. - everyday 2 to 5 police are disappearing.

    In some days like today upto 37 police officers are abandoning with their weapons. - To mitigate the issue the government is forcing non-Oromo members (with Amharas & Southern #Ethiopia ethnicity) to take forced indefinite vacations. - Another measure being implemented is taking away weapons of 4 out of 5 police officers. Only one carry weapon while the other four carry stick.

    The security force is melting away in front of our eyes. Field marshal Berhanu Jula was right yesterday when he lamented about it.

     

     

  22. Posted

    1 hour ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    i doubt it that they presented as guest to begin with Landers just felt treated bad in mogadishu whether it was in the 1980s or even now when all that is happening now and they are being targeted once again, can u blame them 

    The entire D-block community was ethnically cleansed from Xamar and thousands were massacred (I was there).  Reer Southwest lost hundreds of thousands due to genocide committed by HG and to a lesser extent by D Block, yet none of these communities cry about being treated badly.

    Even recent wounds like LA bombardment by Bixiye and his 'army'  did not prompt the sort of 'we are being treated' badly narrative.

    As for the politics, it is sports. reer Hargeisa need to learn how to play it.

  23. Posted

    8 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Not true it has nothing to do with feelings wat do u think made prof samatar flee from Mogadishu to hargeisa it was muuse suudi yalaxow  who’s said to the good professor   Mahan goofkeygi waaye.  Well sure galbeedi can stay as a guest in xamer but he can never over step and lecture the koonfurians how the country should be run then He will be told to stay in line  and not overstep so if he stayes just as civilian is Allright  hadanaba la dilin like Saado cali and abdinassir Dahable landers should be careful of they are behind enemy lines this is not the 1960s

    Samantar is a failed politician in Somalia and now Sland. He just fell short of his ambitions.

    For all of the Somalis from the Horn and beyond, it seems only the family clan who portray themselves as guests are mostly beesha dhexe. No one from Somaligalbeed, SSC, or even NFD ever says there are guests.

     

     

     

  24. Posted

    1 hour ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    yes no funding from somalia should ever be condoned by Somaliland

    Well done Somaliland government

     

    LOL, it seems Sland has a problem with funding from Somalia when it comes to Awdal.

    • Haha - That was funny. You made me laugh! 1