Armchair Politician

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Everything posted by Armchair Politician

  1. While coming from fundamentally different cultures and religions and histories, American Conservatives largely have the same goals as so called "non-Moderate" Muslims. Those being to preserve the traditional beliefs and practices of their religion and society in the face of rapid social change. American Conservatives have developed, over the course of a hundred years or so, a long list of terminology designed to make it very difficult to attack them on any point, and their survival and even dominance in America, a place where they are often called the "American Taliban", is a testament to the power of words. When speaking to a western audience: References to Sharia should be referred to as "Family Values". Isa should be quoted extensively, but always use his Christian name (Jesus). Anything from Isa will trump any argument with a Christian conservative. In fact, always use terms westerners would be familiar with. Jesus, God, John the Baptist, etc. Most of the time they don't even know that most of the people mentioned in the Koran are in the Bible, but under different names. A lot of them don't even know that Islam and Christianity are quite similar in many ways. Always refer to yourself as a Conservative, not even religious Conservative just Conservative. If in politics call yourself the Conservative Party. The justification for attacking Islam is that it is "Radical". Conservative is the exact opposite of Radical. For extra points, you can even bandy about terms like "Tory". For instance: "We, the Conservative Party, decry this attempt by radical liberals to undermine our traditional family values" An American Conservative will react like so: "We didn't mean to undermine your family values! I'm sorry!" However if we translate to pre-use of lingo: "We, the Islamic Scholars, decry this attempt by America to undermine holy Sharia law" An American Conservative will react by saying how awful it is that these radical Islamists are standing in the way of progress.
  2. Ahh journalism today This is actually about the standard of reporting on Somalia these days. You think this is bad, you should read some right-wing American blogs about Somalia.
  3. I got my hands on the state emblems of Galmudug and Maakhir through some insiders a while back, and of course the Somali/Puntland arms are easily available, so I decided to draw up a nice quality version of all three. This is the arms of Somalia, and also Puntland State of Somalia: This is the arms of Maakhir State of Somalia. This is the arms of Galmudug State of Somalia:
  4. Hasan Hersi isn't like Al-Qaeda, he IS Al-Qaeda. He is their leader in Somalia. Hasan Hersi was the leader of Al-Ittihad after Aweys, and fought in Afghanistan against the Soviets. His is the most underestimated force in Somalia, and mindbogglingly ignored. Where do you think the Shabbab have been getting all their weapons and equipment from? All of the Shabbab commanders are old students of his in Al-Ittihad, he's the one in overall command.
  5. Everyone forgets about Hasan Hersi. While Shabab fights and the ARS holds press conferences, he continues to train and equip his army in lower Juba.
  6. But that's just it, there's always a million photos of these meetings, but never anything on what they actually decided in the meeting lol.
  7. Well the word to use is federal, or autonomous, or semi-autonomous, all three of which have different meanings but imply unity with a larger national body. Independent has a very specific meaning, and implies no higher national body than yourself.
  8. 1. Puntland State is part of Somalia; it is her duty to contribute to the establishment and protect a Somali Government based on the Federal System. 2. The powers that Puntland State shall cede to the Federal Government of Somalia and the rights that will be preserved shall be determined through negotiation. 3. Pending the completion of the Federal Constitution approved by a popular referendum, Puntland State shall have the status of an independent State . Eh?
  9. Why is it every meeting that occurs in Puntland looks the same? Really long polished wooden table? Check Everyone has their own bottle of water? Check Everyone looks really bored, and noone has even opened their notebook? Check Looks as though Puntland has started offering a selection of soda pop with your water as well.
  10. Well the problem is that if a government refuses to negotiate with their opposition and are instead toppled by it, what is left is a vacuum, because there was no space made for such an eventuality to exist. When this happens there are several things that can happen. The rebel movement can form a governing coalition of opposition groups and exiled politicians, it can set up a Junta and rule by the might of the gun, or it can fail to do either and collapse into chaos. The Shabab is not the USC, it has a high degree of cohesiveness and could easily establish a Junta, though it would face considerable opposition itself. The hope is that the rift between the ARS and Shabab would be resolved before the TFG collapses. The optimal situation would be where moderate elements of the present TFG would be allowed into a coalition government of national unity with a diminished role, and that radical elements of the Shabab be given nonpolitical roles in the military and police. The biggest single thing that has to happen should the government fall is a rapid phasing-over of UIC, TFG and Shabab soldiers into well-paid military and police roles. This is the only guarantee against things dissolving again.
  11. Shabab has denied that the soldiers are theirs, and the soldiers themselves said they were ex-UIC. The question is though, what qualifies you to be ex-UIC? There are a lot of people who used to be UIC militia. Were these guys clan militia? Maybe one of the soldiers recruited in November-December? One of Indha'adde's soldiers? Then of course there is the possibility that Mohamed Dhere is lying through his teeth. I mean Mr. Mohamed Omar Habeb doesn't have the greatest historical record with the truth.
  12. Shabbab aren't terrorists though. They're an opposition paramilitary group. Shabbab's methods and goals are to defeat the Ethiopian military and the TFG, whom they view as a puppet regime, and establish a new administration. They are a textbook rebel movement.
  13. The things holding back Somalia from really booming economically are poor infrastructure and war in the south. Though the war has been trumpeted as the biggest reason, I personally feel that the poor infrastructure is a bigger one. Initiatives like new highway construction and new ports in Las Qoray and Hobyo are a good start to improving the infrastructure situation.
  14. Abdullahi Yusuf is not nearly as senile as he seems, he's still got some fight left in him. Still, things do not look good for the TFG right now.
  15. Well of course he's laboring hard to make it look like a lie. There's not much else out there today that could be spun in the government's favor. What's a propagandist to do? Afgoi battle? Bad. Beletweyne? No way. Sharif Sheikh Ahmad looks foolish? Perfect. The irony being that this tunnel vision on political crap, there actually IS some good news today. http://allafrica.com/stories/200801290712.html
  16. ^^^Adeer thus if we lied, it means its ok so he can lie? But the Shiekh always lied, and his whole clan movement is based on lies. Which lies in particular are you referring to?
  17. http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Ethiopian_generals_complain_about_Somalia_s_n ew_PM.shtml MOGADISHU, Somalia Jan 29 (Garowe Online) - Ethiopia’s top military commanders serving in Somalia have dispatched a letter to the country’s interim president, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, expressing their dissatisfaction with the policies of new Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein, confidential sources tell Garowe Online. The exact contents of the letter have not been independently verified yet, but government sources in Mogadishu and Baidoa privately confirmed the existence of the letter. The Ethiopian generals expressed their displeasure with the way Prime Minister Nur Adde is running his new government, said reliable sources with first-hand knowledge of the letter. The letter was also sent to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, President Yusuf’s main backer. The generals’ central argument in the letter is that the Prime Minister makes decisions without consulting Ethiopian army commanders based in the capital Mogadishu, the sources said. Prime Minister Nur Adde is “not as expected” and that the army commanders "cannot work with him," the Ethiopian commanders complained. Sources close to the Prime Minister confirmed to Garowe Online that he is aware of the letter, but declined further comment concerning its exact contents. Since his arrival in Mogadishu last week, Prime Minister Nur Adde has refused to meet with top Ethiopian commander Gen. Gabre, according to a Cabinet source who did not wish to be named in print. Ethiopian Prime Minister Zenawi is largely believed to have personally hand-picked former Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, who resigned last October under Ethiopian pressure following a serious rift with President Yusuf.
  18. Duke, you don't have a leg to stand on for this one, Sharif Sheikh Ahmad was just repeating what Diriye's own family had been told; that he was dead. This is an opportune moment however to raise the issue of why a respected representative of one of Mogadishu's major clans had been extradited to Ethiopia by his own government for months and months. He was never charged with any crime.
  19. It's a pretty nasty thing to do, I'm certain Muslim leaders in Christian countries wouldn't want this sort of thing happening to them.
  20. This is textbook guerrilla warfare, deprive your enemies of supplies and weapons while stockpiling your own, confront your enemies in asymmetrical warfare where any numerical or technological advantage is either nullified or turned against them, and never offer your enemies a conventional combat opportunity (such as trying to defend a town) where the enemy's technological and numerical advantage can be used. The Shabbab had a rough start in adapting to such tactics, but after a year and a half of practice, and with lots of training in Hassan Turki's camps in Lower Juba, they're really hitting their stride now. I'm especially impressed by their ability to hit "high value" targets in Baidoa assasinations. The TFG and Ethiopian military on the other hand have not adequately adapted to counter any of this, and are being bled dry. The move from Baidoa was nothing less than a retreat from the Bay region, which is being rapidly overrun. By the way, there is video evidence that Mukhtar Robow actually did take his 10 year old son with him to the front lines. A British journo went with him and filmed the whole thing. The kid looked really scared, and you could hear the artillery fire in the background.
  21. It's official: Mukhtar Robow "Abu Mansoor" and his forces have taken over a vast swathe of territory stretching from the outskirts of Baidoa and Bur Hakaba all the way to the outskirts of Beletweyne and the town of Baledogle just outside of Wanla Weyn, and the much-trumpeted move to Mogadishu is looking increasingly like a retreat from Baidoa. This combined with the endless simmering battle-that-never-ended in Mogadishu, and the equally vast swathe of territory adjacent to the Kenyan border that was effectively ceded to Hassan Turki earlier this year, makes it increasingly unlikely that the government will succeed in unifying the country. The TFG got soft support at the end of 2006 for ending the UIC's increasingly broad grip on the country from a variety of tribal groups, but this support is double-edged as the same reasons they had for opposing the UIC is also fueling their opposition to TFG control. The TFG is in danger of essentially repeating the situation of 1991, where the government controlled only the capital, and the entire rest of the country was in rebel hands.
  22. So the TFG is holding peace talks with its own parliamentarians in territory they already supposedly control. Fabulous work there guys.
  23. Please inform us then, Baashi, how these few thousand peacekeepers are going to, as you so aptly put it "get rid of the war itself"? If they could do such a thing, they would be called peacemakers, not peacekeepers.
  24. Nations do not have friends, they have allies and enemies, and one can turn into the other in the blink of an eye. The fact that Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed flew off to Nairobi to sell rights to the offshore oil resources off the coast of Hobyo without consulting anyone, and that he did so even as UIC troops marched on Baidoa and his supporters needed him, shows what kind of person he is.