Armchair Politician

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  1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Exploration_in_Puntland Key Players * Africa Oil Corp. formerly Canmex Minerals, an oil and mineral mining company based out of Vancouver, British Columbia Canada. * Range Resources an oil and mineral exploration company based in Perth, Western Australia and Melbourne, New South Wales, Australia * Puntland State government of Somalia, where the Nogal and Dharoor blocks are located. * Transitional Government of Somalia [edit] Consort Private Gets Rights in Puntland Dharoor and Nogal Blocks Dharoor and Nogal Blocks Consort Private Ltd., a holding company operated by two Australian dealbrokers Terry Donnelly and Anthony Black, travelled to Puntland in April of 2005 to tour the country and meet with Puntland leaders. On June 10th, 2005 Puntland president Mohamud Muse Hersi, planning and international cooperation minister Dr. Abdirahman Farole and Terry Donelly travel to Dubai, UAE to begin negotiations on a deal. Later during the trip, the Puntland delegation lands in Nairobi, Kenya to take part of Somali transitional federal government’s (TFG) relocation to Somalia. In Nairobi, it was reported that TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf (the previous and founding President of Puntland) and Puntland President Hersi became "angry" at each other because the TFG leadership refused to honor any agreement signed between a regional government (i.e. Puntland) and a foreign company.[1] The Puntland delegation went ahead anyways, returned to Dubai and signed an agreement on August 30th, 2005 at the Hilton Dubai with Consort Private for exclusive rights to explore and drill for oil in the Nogal and Dharoor blocks. Two days prior to this, the Somali Prime Minister sent a warning to non-Somali companies that any oil deals would have to go through the federal government, not any state government (this despite the fact that Puntland was and is independent of the federal government in all but name).[2] While the details of the deal are known only to the four men who signed it, what is known is that following the deal, a number of Puntland ministers were added to the board of directors, and the government of Puntland by extension must have a sizeable (perhaps even controlling) share in Consort Private. Not to be put off so easily, Somali TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf, in an interview with the BBC on September 9, 2005, says that legally "natural resources belonging to the nation is the responsibility of the federal government". A few weeks later on September 29, 2005 a delegation from Puntland composed of ministers and businessmen travelled to the TFG's interim capital at Jowhar to led by finance minister Mohamed Yusuf "Gaagaab" to unsuccessfully negotiate again for Yusuf's signature on the deal. [edit] Range Resources Purchases Exploration Rights Range Resources purchased 50.1% of Consort Private's exclusive rights to the Dharoor and Nogal blocks on October 5th, 2005 in exchange for $2,500,000 AUD in cash, 17 monthly payments of $200,000, 85,000,000 shares of Range Resources stock and a further 85,000,000 stock options.[3] In June 2006 the remaining 49.9% was purchased from Consort Private with the key assistance of Sir Sam Jonah, who became the Non-executive chairman of Range[4] The deal had several terms, which hinged on certain conditions: 1. 6 month exclusive option to acquire Consort’s interest on the terms set out below with an option fee of 100m listed Range shares (RRS) and 50 m options (RRSO) payable subject to any necessary shareholder approvals; 2. 750m Range ordinary fully paid shares, 375m options (unlisted, 5 cents, 1 October 2010) and US$10m conditional on shareholder approval and the completion of a minimum US$25m capital raising; 3. A further payment of 750m Range ordinary fully paid shares, 375m (unlisted, 5 cents, 1 October 2010) and US$20m conditional on shareholder approval and upon completion of the first hydrocarbon well drilled in Puntland; 4. 2.5% net royalty on the Puntland Projects; Range Resources issued a press release the same day stating that the TFG had signed off on the deal. The Prime Minister of the TFG, Ali Mohamed Gedi, fired back less than a week later on October 16th 2005 refuting this claim in a letter to the Australian Stock Exchange, where Range Resources is traded. On November 2nd, 2005, Ali Mohamed Gedi finally accepted an "amendment of contract" between Puntland and Range, removing the last legal hurdle in between Range and exploration. [edit] Exploration Problems and Political Instability On February 26, 2006 the Puntland Parliament faced a confidence vote on President Hersi's Council of Ministers. Heated argument and disputes in the parliament turn ugly, and by the next day at least three people are reported dead near Garowe's Parliament House. The Puntland minister of planning and international cooperation, key player in the negotiations with Consort Private and chief opponent of Range Resources/Africa Oil Corp. deal, Dr. Abdirahman Farole, is "relieved" of his duty by Puntland president Mohamud "Adde" Muse Hersi. The very same day, Range deployed two exploration teams in Somalia. An initial report on results is published a week and a half later on March 9th 2006. The [East Sanaag] clan, one of the [constituent] clans that make up the Puntland state, decided to take exception to the fact that Puntland was going to explore for oil in their territory without their permission, and began preventing Range exploration in Sanaag and western Bari. Puntland was determined that Range teams have access to Sanaag and western Bari (over half of the Dharoor block is in [East Sanaag] territory.), and attempted to muscle their way into Sanaag and western Bari on March 19th 2006. The [East Sanaag] fought them off, and [East Sanaag] parliamentarians in Baidoa, then the capital of the TFG, complained in the parliament two days later about President Hersi's aggressive tactics. At the same time Puntland consistently denied that anything had occurred. A week later Puntland tried again on March 29th 2006, and again was prevented from entering Sanaag and western Bari by [East Sanaag] militia. And again on April 3rd, 9th and 13th. As the fighting began to creep into western media, Range Resources insisted noone had been killed, despite evidence to the contrary. Range chose not to explore in Sanaag. These events led to the seperation of the [East Sanaag] from Puntland and the creation of their own state, Maakhir. [edit] Canmex/Africa Oil Corp. Gets Involved A Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) signed on October 10th 2006 between Canmex Minerals, Range and Puntland granted Canmex an 80% interest in the "licenses and operatorship" of the Dharoor and Nogal blocks, contingent upon: 1. Canmex to pay to Range a signing bonus in the aggregate amount of $5 million within 10 days of signing the agreement[5] 2. The financial commitment over an initial four year period of US$50 million in exploration expenditures; and 3. The payment to Range of an additional US$3.5 million upon commencement of commercial production With the signing bonus paid, and with approval of the Puntland parliament, Range, Puntland and Canmex hammered out a Production Sharing Agreement on January 23, 2007, that confirmed the terms of the MOU signed in October. [6] In order to meet their financial obligations, Canmex sold 4,000,000 common shares in a non-brokered private placement in order to raise $20,000,000[7]. [edit] PM Gedi and the TFP battle President Yusuf In November 2006, while the TFG was besieged by Islamist armies in Baidoa and Ethiopia was preparing to invade the Union of Islamic Courts, President Yusuf traveled to the headquarters of the PRC's state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) as well as the smaller China International Oil and Gas (CIOG) Group to ratify a deal with the oil group's chairman and chief executive officer, Fu Chengyu. Seven months later, in Nairobi, TFG Energy Minister Abdullahi Yusuf Mohamad met with Chen Zhuobiao, head of CNOOC operations in Africa, and Judah Jay, managing director of CIOG, to create the final agreement, which was signed by President Abdullahi Yusuf on July 18th 2007. The agreement gave CNOOC exclusive rights to the large offshore blocks off the coast of Mudug, for an undisclosed sum of money and unknown terms.[8] At the same time Canmex official renamed itself Africa Oil Corp. (AOI.V) on August 20th, 2007, due to heightened optimism about their Puntland operations. Prime Minister Gedi decided to get in on all this action himself, and backtracked on his previous, lukewarm endorsement of Puntland's oil exploration agreement and instead proposed a draft law in the Transitional Federal Parliament in August 2007 that would nullify all agreements made after 1991 (when the last functional national government collapsed and the oil companies with existing concessions declared Force Majeure) thus giving the TFG free reign to resell all the exploration rights in the country. The exploration rights for all of Somalia would be sold to Indonesia’s PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk and the Kuwait Energy Company, and a National Oil Company of Somalia would be created, controlled by Gedi and parliament. This directly confronted President Yusuf's deal with CNOOC, and so the two went to political war with each other, leading to Gedi's forced resignation after more than two months of backroom warfare, on October 29th 2007. Uneasy about all these events, on December 28th, 2007 Africa Oil Corp (formerly Canmex). demanded that President Yusuf formally sign off on the deal before a payment of $20,000,000 to be split between Range and the TFG, or Africa Oil Corp. threatened to pull out of the deal entirely. [9]
  2. Yeey is desperate to grab on to any nationalist credibility he can find, and Las Anod has become something of a symbolic issue for anti-secessionists. This is futile however while Ethiopian tanks idle in Mogadishu lobbing the occasional shell onto some random neighborhood. That said Somaliland is being somewhat foolish in aggravating tensions in Sool. Somaliland should create a buffer state that is on the one hand a puppet state of Somaliland but also technically part of federal Somalia. Long-term it is not viable for Somaliland to close their border militarily, and should instead work with Maakhir and create a "Darwiishland" in Sool and Sanaag. Somaliland spends an absurd amount of money on their military, and those funds would be much better spent on infrastructure. They wouldn't need such a huge army if the border wasn't such an issue.
  3. There are over a million and a half refugees in Somalia today, their crime being that they lived in the same city as those who opposed Yeey, or belonged to the same tribe. This is an act that Mao would have done, and did, many times. He never cared how many people died for his whims or fancies. China was and is an immensely rich country, and yet 30 years later they are still bandaging the wounds to their society, culture, heritage, environment, economy and people. Somalia simply cannot afford a Mao. What Somalia needs are bridge-builders, willing to meet people halfway. Yeey is not up to this task. He would rather kill nearly everyone and destroy everything as long as the survivors and the rubble acknowledged him as the emperor of Somalia.
  4. Kenya's a powderkeg waiting to explode. It's got everything: * Rich tribes and poor tribes (Kikuyus own everything worth anything, everyone else has nothing) * Rich religions and poor religions (Christians have more influence and power than Muslims and Pagans) * Colonial era grudges (for instance Swahilis were pro-British, Kikuyus were rebellious) * Political dominance by one tribe (Kikuyus have a lockdown on the presidency) * Overflow of tribal borders to neighbor states (Only the Kikuyu are limited to Kenya)
  5. It's interesting that you use the term "Great Leap Forward" coined by Mao Zedong, as there are interesting parallels. Mao's "Great Leap Forward" was in fact two things, a massive purge of leadership leaving him with godlike power in China with noone able to stop him, and a massive sale of food and resources to the Soviet Union in exchange for military hardware. The ensuing mass-killings and famine killed 100 million Chinese, and did not speed up industrialization or modernization by a considerable degree. It did however solidify Mao's rule as the god-emperor of China. Things were so bad that in the countryside, peasants ate tree bark and leaves and went about naked because they couldn't afford clothes. The fear of Mao was so great however, that even with literally millions starving to death and even eating each other to survive, noone even tried to stop Mao. Yeey is well on his way. Like Mao he purged the leadership of anyone opposed to him, even when that opposition is for the good of the country or even for human decency. Like Mao he has exchanged the resources of his country in order to solidify his rule and guarantee personal and absolute power, and like Mao he doesn't care if a fifth of his citizens pay the ultimate price for his greed and arrogance.
  6. Noone questions this though. It is not disloyal to your government or tribe to speak out against corruption or abuse. Quite the opposite in fact. So why is it so rare?
  7. It's like a commentator was saying a few months ago, you can tell what tribe or region someone is from nowadays by what they claim and deny, what view they push or suppress, and whom they praise or condemn. This sort of collective "hive mind" does not bode well for the future.
  8. Why is every Somali an amateur propagandist? Why is portraying your tribe or government in a positive light more important than exposing corruption or abuses of power? Why does noone involved in or related to the governments involved speak out against the imprisonment of journalists brave enough to do their jobs properly and impartially? This is a serious problem to any political future for Somalia. If serious issues cannot be discussed within communities, there is no check to corruption or abuse of power.
  9. First Gedo, and the Jubbas, then Lower Shabelle, then Bula Barde and now Dusamareb. Looks as though Bakool will be next what with the fighting between rival factions. Puntland is now too occupied with its own problems to involve itself further in the south as well. That leaves Dabaged's fiefdom of Beletweyne, Shatigadud's fiefdom of Baidoa and Mohamed Dheere's shaky police state in Jowhar and Mogadishu. No tribal or grassroots support left really.
  10. http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Governor_flees_region_after_insurgent _death_threats.shtml GALKAYO, Somalia Dec 22 (Garowe Online) - The governor of Somalia's Galgadud region in the central part of the country fled the provincial capital Dhusamareb on Saturday following death threats he received from armed groups opposed to the country's transitional government. Governor Abdulkadir "Sufi" Elmi Salaad and the region's police commander, Col. Omar Hassan, arrived in the city of Galkayo later today where they were welcomed by Puntland regional government officials. The Galgadud governor and police commander told reporters in Galkayo that they left Dhusamareb after receiving threatening phone calls and letters from groups associated with the Islamic Courts. Clan elders advised Galgadud officials to leave the region for their own personal safety, local sources said. Galgadud is the home region of Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the Islamists' supreme leader. Several senior Islamic Courts officials also hail from Galgadud region. A small contingent Ethiopian troops are based in Guri El town, southeast of Dhusamareb. Sources said other Galgadud officials have secretly left Dhusamareb to undisclosed locations. Islamist guerrillas waging war on the government and its Ethiopian backers have attacked government forces in several regions in recent weeks, including Galgadud, Hiran and Bay. Source: Garowe Online
  11. Isn't the whole idea of federalism that states decide things like this for themselves? In the USA, a federal system of states, states can negotiate agreements with nations and manage their own resources, and pass their own laws. The federal government has authority over things that leave the state's jurisdiction, or considered to be resources or concerns of the nation as a whole (national parks, criminals who cross state lines, war with foreign countries, etc) but American states have their own armies (national guard units) police, administrations, laws, etc. It seems that even though the TFG has "Federal" in its name, it would prefer to be the "TCG" the Transitional Central Government. Federalism is all about devolving power to the states, not centralizing it all for the federal government.
  12. I try to make my political maps as accurate as I can, but they are only as good as my information. I do use a variety of source maps and coordinates to make sure the towns are in the right place at least. To be honest I don't know what it is exactly that fascinates me so. Somali politics is sort of like a drama program. People watching an episode for the first time have no idea what is going on, but eventually you learn the "characters" and their history, and you find yourself wondering what happens next. Perhaps it doesn't seem so from within the unfolding story of Somalia, to Somalis it's just sort of depressing, but Somali history, especially recent history, is epic. It's like the ancient chinese curse of "may you live in interesting times".
  13. The first thing that has to happen is for a Somali Archaeological Society to be founded, and for all the clans and governments to agree to preserve and respect Somalia's heritage. If archaeological digs happen, the artifacts should not be whisked off to some western museum or worse, antiquities dealers warehouses. It will likely be a temptation for many, as ancient Somalia was likely very rich, and the artifacts very valuable.
  14. Hmm hard to say really. Tajura was the seat of the ruler of Djibouti at the time, who was a vassal of the King of the Afars at Aussa. The Kingdom of Aussa was the direct successor to Adal, when Adal split into the Emirate of Harar and Imamate of Aussa, and later became a kingdom. After the Afar imamate collapsed in the later 17th century, Italy bought Aseb and France bought Obock from Afar chiefs. The Afar are a bit of an enigma really. They have a strong association with Adal, and most of their recorded history is as either Adal or a succesor state.
  15. Adulis is 40km south of Massawa, so it's 40 km closer, not further away, from Djibouti So your math should be 176km = 780km - 40km = 740km That means Zeila is 70 Km further away than the Periplus states it to be if it is Avalites, and 100 Km too far if it is Aseb. HOWEVER, if it is Tadjoura that is Avalites, it is exactly right.
  16. I agree, I believe Somalia has been inhabited by Somalis and their ancestors for the last 50,000 years. The key difference I believe is that the east coast towns including Mogadishu were ruled by or vassals of larger Persian or Arab powers, such as the Shirazis who ruled the Swahili people. The Shirazis ruled Somalis and Swahili both, forming the Zeng empire based in Maqda Shah (the Seat of the Shah) modern Mogadishu. The Somalis eventually threw out the Shirazis when their empire collapsed, and Shingani, Brava and Hamarweyne became independent Islamic merchant republics. The Shirazi monarchy moved to Kilwa Kisiwani and their empire had a bit of a comeback, but the Portugese arrived in the early 1500s and destroyed it. When the "Berbers" converted to Islam and became the "Somali" they began to build strong states.
  17. Ok. Ptolmais Theron corresponds roughly with the city of Suakin, which is 448km away from Massawa. Adulis lies roughly 40 kilometers away from Massawa, so 500 Kilometers. So 3000 of the narrator's Stadia equal 500 km. 6 Stadia = 1km. From Adulis to Avalites is 4000 Stadia, or 667 km. The distance from Massawa to Zeila is 642 km. The distance from Massawa to Aseb is 442 km. The distance from Aseb to Zeila is 200 km. This is how the crow flies though, however Massawa is 40 km further away from Zeila than Adulis, so even accounting for 70km of extra trip time, Zeila matches almost perfectly, while Aseb is 200km too close to be Avalites.
  18. That's interesting that he used the term "Afrik". Afar is derived from this root word. The book you linked me also uses the term "Zang", which in Arab and Farsi means "black". The so called "Zenj Empire" of coastal cities down east Africa was similarly named. Mogadishu has long been stated to be the first "Zenj" or "Zang" state founded.
  19. The Periplus states that it is 3,000 Stadia from Ptolmais Theron to Adulis, and a further 4,000 Stadia to Avalites. The distance between Ptolmais Theron (near modern day Suakin) and Adulis (some ways south of Massawa actually) is about the same as the distance between Adulis and modern Aseb. There is another 1,000 Stadia to travel, which is just about the distance between Aseb and Zeila. I believe that the statement that it is the closest to Yemen is in comparison to the other market towns, not that it is the closest PLACE physically, which it is, it is closer to Yemen than Adulis or Malao.
  20. That's a kingdom I've never heard of, can you tell me more about the kingdom of Zand?
  21. There will be no peace likely in the near future as long as the country is occupied by Ethiopian soldiers and Yeey is president. These are simply the facts.
  22. These market towns declined after Christianity became the majority religion in the Roman Empire, because the biggest market for incense (used in Pagan religious ceremonies) no longer had a use for it. There was still the market with China, India and southeast Asia, but there Somalia went from being the closest and therefore most desirable destination for traders to the most remote and inaccessible, and Arab traders acting as middlemen took over the trade.
  23. 4000 Stadia is roughly 600-800 kilometers, which would actually put Aseb too close to Adulis, and is about right for Zeila. Also, being the closest port to Yemen does not neccisarily mean it is at the closest POINT to Yemen. That would be modern Obock anyways, not Aseb.