Arafaat

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Posts posted by Arafaat

  1. Posted

    This is an interesting portrait of Abiy Ahmed, from a month ago before this latest saga on the Red Sea deal with Somaliland started.

    What is quite contradictory about Abiy is that while he seemed quite genuine at first about Horn of Africa integration, and building a political and economic Union in the region that moves towards gradual integration and harmonisation, he does the opposite by this latest move bringing the region on the brick of a potential war. 

    Furthermore, what is even more antithetical is that through an integrated Horn of Africa Union, Ethiopia would have gotten access to the lands, markets and sea of its neighbouring countries and would have been the centre and powerhouse of the region, instead its risking now to become the pariah shunned by the whole region and further dividing the region with all erecting measures against eachother. 

    Che, was right all along Abiy is not the man we all thought to belief he was, perhaps its even worser that he seems to be a maniac driven by hubris and day dreams of chasing grandiosity. 

    • Like 1

  2. Posted

    17 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    Every Southerner is wondering why the ambassador was kicked out, airspace closed, and contingency plans made for replacing Ethiopian troops. That's why people are suspicious of HSM, and why some think he knew about this deal.

    Ciyaari wa galin dambe.

    It’s not sensible to throw everything you have at it, incl the kitchen, as this is issue requires much political manoeuvring and will be a long game. And Somalia has quite tools political, legal and diplomatic options they should utilise at the right time. 

    • Like 1

  3. Posted

    Xaaji, I understand your mistrust of Somalia in the talks. But the issue isn’t just about having international observers, it’s more important that the Somali government needs to see Somaliland as its own predicament, and one needs this sense of responsibility, urgency and prioritisation in order for one to take responsibility and ownership to resolve the political dispute through talks.

    And so far this has been lacking, further exacerbated by Somalilands mephahone diplomacy as mode for communication. 

    • Like 2

  4. Posted

    3 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

    I went to Jiggiga last year and I was shocked at how far the city's demographic makeup has shifted in favour of the non-Somalis. Jigging will soon face ethic riots and will be declared as a federal territory just like Diridhabe before it. Then the capital of the Somali state will move again to another small town like Goday closer to our borders. This process of displacing the Somali people from their land will continue unopposed until Ethiopia's ambitions are realised. 

    Personally I have not issue with movement people beyond tribal lines and national borders. But fact remains that as long as the Somali State is weak,  Somali people divided and fractured, and the Somali culture fragile that high levels of Oromo migration lead to cultural assimilation of natives, as per example of Dire Dawa and now Jigjiga. 

    • Like 1

  5. Posted

    Perhaps the biggest hindrance of all, not mentioned in the piece, are Abiy and Muse’s impediment leadership, the political trajectory and sense of desperation over internal state and anxiety over own position. Which will not be turned by this deal, on the contrary it will further destabilise both countries and at larger the region. Remember how Ethiopia and Somaliland got to the current precarious internal political state in the first place. 

    Will this deal be the healing cure for the political disarray, or perhaps on the contrary become the tipping point? 

  6. Posted

    Reasons to Object to the proposed Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU

    10 January 2024

    Absent the MoU, we have relied on the initial brief provided by President Bihi and the subsequent public statements from Ethiopian officials to piece together key elements of the deal. Bottom line is that this MoU is not good for Somaliland in a myriad of ways.

    Below are some of the key concerns related to MoU:

    1. The MoU has yet to be shared and there have been mixed signals from both Somaliland and Ethiopian officials on the scope and location of the Ethiopian investments – Is it a port deal? Naval base? Is it providing 20kms on the coast? Where exactly – Loyado/Lugaya/Bulahar? Or is it a land bridge connecting Ethiopia to the sea? What are the payment terms and how much?

    2. Ethiopia’s historic claims and recent public statements from Abiy and Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicate an intent to obtain “permanent and reliable” access to the sea for the landlocked country. Therefore, the plans for a naval base, commercial port, and land bridge all should elicit concern that the endgame for Ethiopia may be to redraw the map of Somaliland. One such possible outcome is the map below in which Ethiopia is able to obtain a 20km wide land bridge to the Gulf of Aden:

     

    There is a high risk of annexation of land by Ethiopia, as a powerful and much larger neighboring country would never give up military strategic assets and land, and if relations deteriorate would likely choose for annexation, as per example of the Ukrainian region of Crimea annexed by Russia.

    3. There should be serious doubts about Ethiopia’s ability to honor any potential payment terms given the fact that the country only just last month (Dec 2023) failed to make a $31 million bond payment. The debt default underscores the Ethiopia's severe financial challenges and explains why the initial payments terms include shares in Ethiopia’s airline and telecom sector or provision of electricity in lieu of cash.

    4. The practice of leasing coastal areas to foreign military has not proven to boost overall economic activity in the host country. Djibouti has one of the highest extreme poverty and income inequality rates in the world despite earning hundreds of millions in annual rents from foreign bases on its territory. https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/poverty/33EF03BB-9722-4AE2-ABC7-AA2972D68AFE/Global_POVEQ_DJI.pdf  

    5. Even if there is no formal annexation of land by Ethiopia, the influx of Ethiopians into the 20 kms of territory will change the demographics of Somaliland and provide Ethiopia with de facto control of the land. Somalilanders have already seen a dramatic increase of mostly Oromo people in the country, most as laborers. There are now several generations of Oromos in Somaliland with children who speak fluent Somali. Social media posts from prominent Ethiopians are clear on their goal to rewrite what they consider an historic wrong.

    6. Ethiopia has no ability to ensure that Somaliland becomes an internationally recognized country with acceptance into African Union, IGAD, UN, or the new bloc of BRICS. Northern Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey and Transnistria is only recognized by Russia. Both countries are largely isolated and economically and militarily dependent of the larger neighboring country. Somaliland would require financing to largely be acquired from Ethiopia as it would have no access to international financial institutions such as the World Bank and IMF.

    7. The construction of a port for Ethiopian commercial port in Lugaya, Loyado or Bulahar would have disastrous effects on the port of Berbera. In addition, the 20 kms area of the coast that will be controlled by Ethiopia will impact Somaliland’s own commercial activities such as fishing.

    8. Ethiopian access to the Red Sea jeopardizes regional stability as Djibouti, Somalia and Eritrea would feel existential threats by Ethiopia surrounding them both on coast and hinterland. In addition, the current high stakes conflict in the Red Sea, where multiple foreign navies are jockeying for relevance, could also draw Somaliland into conflict unwillingly.

    9. The debate over the MoU has resulted in several Somaliland communities expressing their opposition to the presence of Ethiopian military in the country. Should the MoU move forward without broad-based support, there is a high chance that internal violent conflict may breakout. After the loss at Gojacadde, a return to war would be devastating for a Somaliland.

    10. The presence of Ethiopian military in Somaliland will be draw for Al Shabaab to the region, as the extremist group has already made a public statement vowing to fight “foreign invaders”. Ethiopia’s presence in Mogadishu was also what ignited and gave birth to AS and created a breeding ground for extremism.

    11. Somaliland will be affected by the complex internal political and economic turmoil in Ethiopia. Somaliland is already economic dependent on trade with Ethiopia, and adding political and security dependency would leave it at the mercy of the whim of whichever Ethiopian regimes comes to power.

    Somaliland Ethiopia withdraw of map.jpeg

    • Like 2

  7. Posted

    4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    Simple and clear explanation. 

     

    This is exactly the point, Ethiopia’d ambition are not investment and access, but control and ownership.  Somaliland balaayo isku furtay, Oromadii wexe wada aamineen iney badu yagu iska leeyihiin. 

    • Like 2

  8. Posted

    12 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    Abiy has mastered the art of betraying:

    Here are the groups he betrayed:

    1. Oromo youth who forced out the TPLF

    2. Lemma Megersa, the preferred candidate who stepped aside and allowed to become him the PM

    3. Eritrea who saved many soldiers from the Northern Command and assisted him in ousting TPLF

    4. Amhara and Afar who paid a heavy price in men and material

    5. And finally OLF and other rebel groups who laid down and chose peace.

    The Tigray and TPLF who got him in to power at the first place. 

    • Like 1

  14. Posted

    For those interested to learn from another example, of a major and more powerful neighbour leasing  military ports and coastal lands, should read about the Kharkiv agreement between Ukrainian and Russia on Crimea Ports and what happened eventually to all of Crimea. 

    Powerful countries do not just give up coastal areas and military ports, even if they initially agreed to a lease, and if needed they even annex the whole region, as happened with Crimea. 

    640px-Dmitry_Medvedev_in_Kharkov_-_21_Ap

    spacer.png Kharkiv Pact - Wikipedia

    EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

  16. Posted

    On 1/3/2024 at 10:41 PM, Che -Guevara said:

    Deni somewhat benefited from Abiy and Muse's dalliance

     

    I am noticing that media and politicians are self-censoring with regards to Deni and showcasing political divisiveness? Why is that?  

    And, who are the elected speaker and deputy, and are they part of Deni's supporters or is the field still open for elections to go any directions? 

     

     

     

     

  17. Posted

    The best way forward is for Somalia and Somaliland to resolve their issues through these talks, incl any coastal areas to be leased. This would be in the interest of all parties, but that one needs to keep a cool head, think rational, being modest, while showcasing empathy to each other. And as agreed staying away from incitement, public statements and emotional outcries.

    its not that difficult to do, but perhaps they need a third party mediator to keep everyone in check, as clearly Somali's are unable to discuss and put the difficult issues on the table in discussion and meetings. 

  18. Posted

    15 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    As long as Xasan is appeasing the secessionists and by extension IOG and Emirates, he will not take advantage of the situation. He can't even bring himself to settle SSC issue and get in touch reer Awadal elites. What matters the most is the support of the people in the North and South. A foreign power and adversaries won't trust a man who can't unite his people.

    The majority of the Northerners outside Heego and some diaspora know this is a land grab and eventual annexation.

    I don’t think IOG on this deal either. But he is fearing an antagonised Ethiopia and has been sidelined earlier by Abiy and Farmaajo. 

  19. Posted

    On 1/3/2024 at 4:02 AM, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    this some nonsense how can Menelik  sell Somalis to the colonialist as if he was our overlord the thing is Menelik  conquered the gallas but he never conquered Somalis , except when he conquered Somali galbeed, but he never comnquered Jabuuti Somaliland or Somalia proper

    the gallas are crazy bunch

    I detest nationalism of any sorts and I want all the brotherly and neighbourly nations in the Horn of Africa to live in peace side by side and have free movements of people and flow of trade, goods. 

    But what I find concerning is the hegemonic ambitions of any state to dominate others, change historic narratives and annexations of lands, as that only will lead to tensions, animosities and eventually perpetual conflict. 

    The ambitions and narratives for a greater Ethiopia (Abysissinia) are well known and documented, and concern is that once the door is openend to entertain thus greater Ethiopian that it will open the door for hegemonic ambitions in the regions that will have social, cultural and political ramifications for the wider region and above all for the people in Somaliland, to become the sheep in the midst of wolves.

    We are living in a time of a changing world order, and are witnessing that historic agreements, borders and national sovereignty are being threatened upon by regional powers without consequences. 

    Look at Russia’s unilateral annexation of the Krim where it initially had leased the Black Sea port from Ukraine. Look at India and how it has thrown away the historic agreements and rights of Jammu and Kashmir regions. China and its unilateral annexation of the whole South China Sea and threading upon coastal zones of half a dozen countries. Venezuela recently announcing its plan to annex a third of Guyana. Turkey that has been occupying swathes of Syrian lands. 

    So what makes you think that Ethiopia will adhere to any agreement and not continue its hegemonistic ambitions by in cooperating parts of Somali territories in to its own? 


     

     

    IMG_3063.png

  20. Posted

    56 minutes ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

    Ma aaminsani inay Xabashada yihiin 120 milyan oo qof. Haddee u badato waa 95 milyan.

    I have travelled the northern parts of Ethiopia by road (Bahar Dar, Gondar, Adigrat, Aksum, Mekele, Wollo, Awash) mainly inhabited by Amhara and Tigray, and I have to say the country is quite fertile and populated specially population density in rural areas is high. And I understand that Oromo parts and Southern Nation are even more populated and fertile than the mountainous northern regions. 

    Even when you fly low altitude over those lands you can see the population density, their villages are as as big our towns all in close proximity and then when you fly over Somali regions that’s when the land becomes like a desert with very little visible population settlements. 

    So I do belief that the Ethiopian populations numbers  are correct and it wouldn’t be in the interest of the federal government to inflate them, on the contrary that could complete their internal governance and administration and lead to major internal problems. 

     

  21. Posted

    You know what’s so strange with Somali’s, they never discuss real issues when they meet. HSM and Muse Biixi met only a day before this deal and have could have discussed real issues as mature man. But Somali meetings are always cover of niceties and protocols and never lead to meaningful discussions of real issues, and they rather air their objections, opinions and concerns through public airways. 

    Very childish and waste of our time, resources. How this could have continued for decades, is a question to me. 

  24. Posted

     

    12 hours ago, Khadafi said:

    For the low conscious who scream in their intoxication under the influence of qayillaada "ICTIRAAF" forget about "countries" like Transistria, Abkhazia, countries recognized by Russia and only Russia. These areas have one thing in common. They have Russian military bases and a large influx of Russians. Ictiraafka xabashida waa deedi. Ilaahy Soomal ha ilaaharo.

    The ‘ictiraaf’ thing has really confused some, Ethiopia already enters agreements with Somaliland, has a diplomatic mission that reports directly to Addis, has direct flights to Hargeisa. What more ictiraaf than that will Ethiopia bring you, changing the sign board of its Consular Mission to Embassy is that worth selling your land for it.

     

     

    • Like 3