Arafaat
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Posts posted by Arafaat
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16 hours ago, gooni said:Galbeedi
Habka boqortooyada yaa sidaa ku dhisan una shaqeeya, waa dhaxal ilaa madaxweynaha puntland.Beelaha kale ee puntland waa shacab xataa waxaa laysku haystaa hal xildhibaan oo ay isku raaceen in odaygoodu usoo xulaan.
Khaliijka guutada taangigiyada waxaa xukuma qof aan reer boqor ahayn, lakiin rasaasta waxaa haya nin reer boqor ah.
Reer diyaano waa niman asal ah oo abtirkooda ay yaqaanaan, meeshaad wax ka fiiranayso iyo dhaqanka meesha yaal waa kala laba.
Then change the name to Kingdom and institutionalise the royal principalities and chiefdoms, and stop the pretentious pretext of federalism and democracy.
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I wouldn’t disregard the Boqor’s comments to soon, the man has showed time again to be quite intuitive.
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On 11/28/2021 at 10:22 PM, galbeedi said:The Business community are doing great. Somalis had shown it could be done. You don't need DP world or Chinese to build things.
I would give those who built Garacad other contracts to build infrastructure.
Which company build it?
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On 11/25/2021 at 2:49 PM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:State broadcaster TRT Haber said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusogu will visit Abu Dhabi in mid-December.
Ankara, at odds with several regional countries as well as its Western allies over various issues, has launched similar normalisation efforts with its rivals Egypt and Saudi Arabia, though those channels have yielded little public improvement.
It’s not only UAE, but also Turkey, seems to want de-escalation of tensions with other countries. Both are economic strategic competitors and are also dependent on another. Only Somali’s seem to think foreign relations are a 0 sum game, where one is either an enemy or a friends.
Let’s hope we will become able to develop healthy and balanced foreign relations based on mutual interest and diplomacy, rather then throwing ourselves partisanly on sides of great power competitors.
How is the new era for Turkey and UAE? | Daily Sabah
WWW.DAILYSABAH.COM
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) visited Turkey on Wednesday, concluding 10 agreements on energy... -
Analysis: From Zalambessa To Senafe
by Abebe Gemetchu, May 30, 2000
Zalambessa Town is the symbol of Eritrean aggression of May-June 1998. It was invaded early June and was under the control of the invading forces, since 10th June of that year, until it was liberated by the Ethiopian defense forces on the night of May 24, 2000, ironically coinciding with the independence day of Eritrea.
There was no battle at Zalambessa town as such. The real fighting took place along the concrete-fortified trenches to the left and right of Zalambessa across hundreds of kilometers. As a result of their ignominious defeat at the trenches, the Eritrean forces manning Zalambessa tried to retreat to Forto, but they were cut by the Ethiopian mechanized unit that had cut the road between Senafe and Forto. The forces retreating from Zalambessa were being encircled and decimated at Forto the next day, and Senafe was captured at the same time.
The War Theater
Most people, when they herd that the war had shifted to the central front in the early morning of May 23, 2000, thought that the battle was going on around Zalambessa Town. That reflected the laymen's defeniton of the Zalambessa Front, for the additional reason that their scope of the war of theater is narrow and their experience of big wars is very limited.
On May 23, active fighting was taking place from the Western Front, at Mai Dema and Mai Mine south of Adi Quala town at Bet Giorgis and Kisad Ika, along the Mereb River from Rama up to the Tsorona central front trenches and on the east of the central front, at the Aiga-Alitena trenches. Fierce battle was raging across approximately one hundred and fifty kilometers from southwest to southeast Eritrea. Several divisions, on both sides, were involved.
Brilliant Military Operation on the Aiga Trenches
On May 23, the brilliant military operation at the Mereb-Setite front eleven days earlier repeated itself. Ethiopian commando units had moved swiftly on the right flank of the Zalambessa front, through Alitena traveling for hours under the cover of darkness, climbing an altitude of 3000 meters above sea level to reach the trenches in Aiga. Despite the grueling mountain climbing, they were successful in dislodging the Eritrean units which were defending themselves in the concrete trenches that had been reinforced for the last two years. Aiga is to the northeast of Zalambessa and is a high point commanding the Zalambessa - Senafe plateau.
Another commando contingent went straight through Aiga, while the other commando contingent was fighting there, to Dalgeda and overran the trenches at Mai-Chea, a village to the north of Aiga and nearer to Senafe than Zalambessa. Whenever and wherever a gap opportunity is created the contingent moves to a designated target. This is one of the military arts Ethiopian forces utilized to move swiftly.
A third pincer movement involving several contingents including a mechanized unit, moved from Soboya clearing a road for tanks and artillery by bulldozers, linking it to Alitena, and attacked the Eritrean units at Menekuseto, an Eritrean village northeast of Zalambessa.
While the mechanized, infantry, and command units were climbing the escarpments of Aiga, Dalgeda and Monekuseto, the Ethiopian airforce dropped about 200 dummy paratroopers from an Antonov plane on the plateau near Forto to divert attention and create havoc behind enemy lines at the Zalambessa Front, so that those Ethiopian units attacking under difficult conditions would not be observed and, at the same time, to keep the enemy forces on the plateau busy without a chance to reinforce the trenches at Aiga.
These lightning successes in breaching and controlling the trenches in these most difficult terrains made PM Meles Zenawi buoyant enough to tell members of the diplomatic community in Addis Ababa the same morning, May 23, "We have controlled the commanding heights." And he predicted the crumbling of the Egela-Zalambessa Front totally within 24 hrs, because he was confident after controlling these heights and breaching the Tsorona trenches stretching from Rama up to Zalambessa, on the western flank. As one journalist said, "The Ethiopians have also surprised themselves, not only the world".
Fall of Egela (Tsorona) Trenches
It is to be remembered that, on March 1999, the Eritreans claimed to have inflicted casualties, though the number was not that much. The figure given was very much exaggerated by the Eritreans, which is by now their trade mark. The Eritrean leadership exaggerates casualties in order to attract supporters in this "senseless war" and create a de facto cease-fire, so that it could be rewarded with its aggression. At that moment, they played a gimmick exercise with the Ethiopian casualties at Tsorona, to be specific at the Igri -Mekel trenches by gathering the bodies of the Ethiopian fallen soldiers from the width and breadth of several kilometers to a narrow strip of one-third of a kilometer. Alex Last, the unofficial spokesperson of the Eritrean government, ostensibly a free-lance journalist working for the BBC and Reuters, counted the bodies in this narrow strip and multiplied it by assuming it would replicate across ten kilometers. He said bodies were strewn one over the other. Therefore he concluded that thousands were killed in the his fiction of "human wave" theory that the Eritrean spin-doctors concocted. Modern wars are not fought like in the Medieval times with swords and knifes. The Eritreans can fool only the layman, including journalists but not military personnel.
Let me comeback to the present unbelievable military genius of the Ethiopian Commanders, that startled and got off-balance the so called Western military experts. The result of these twelve days of Ethiopian blitzkrieg defied the conventional military sages and their logic.
First off all, the Eritrean commanders were cheated by their advisors, their "experts" or the mass media. They expected this time that the main thrust would come from the West, assaulting Mendefera in order to cut the big force deployed at the Egela- Zalambessa Front from its rear in Asmara. On the other hand, because of last year's experience and the further consolidation of the trenches with concrete bankers this year, they thought it would be a suicide and a futile exercise if the Ethiopians were to attack the Zalambessa Front. Therefore, the EPLF based, their analysis and calculations on the above theory and they moved a considerable amount of forces towards Mendefera (Adi - Ugri) and Areza to the newly established front, because of Ethiopian forces' move from Badme towards the east, controlling Mai-Dema and threatening the Mendefera-Asmara road.
The surprise element is essential in all kinds of wars. The Ethiopian commanders weighed the pros and cons, meticulously planned their move and unleashed their deadly assault on the central front.
First, they crushed the Mereb trenches on the left (east of Tsorona), that was then at the cost of Mendefera, and then controlled the trenches at Mai Alba. These trenches were very strong with fortified bankers running for tens of kilometers. Two, on the right side, another Ethiopian contingent controlled commanding heights southwest of River Tsorona and at the same time another contingent moved swiftly and controlled the trenches to the east of Tsorona. That is why, in the afternoon of May 23, 2000, when Foreign Minister Seyoum was asked in a press conference about what was happening on the ground and that the PM had predicted the crumbling of the central front in 24 hours, he said, "They (Ethiopian Forces) have already shattered the defense lines of the enemy, they have over-run many of their (Eritrean) trenches by flanking from right to left, finding gaps, penetrated deep in." (Reuters May 23).
As usual, the Eritrean spokesperson, advisor to the president of Eritrea, had dismissed the prediction by the Ethiopian officials, saying "was it a preliminary assessment. I can't understand how he (PM of Ethiopia) could say that," and further lied to the Washington Post reporter, Karl Vick, by saying, "We have repulsed every Ethiopian attack – and our people are telling us (that) Ethiopian losses were extremely high." Pure fabrication and lie! He never thought that he would be exposed the next day.
The Ethiopian forces, with lightning speed, overrun and took the trenches, the Eritrean forces were dislodged from the trenches and were on the run. And in the afternoon, they regrouped and, getting some reinforcement from the Mendefera front, tried several times to counterattack, but it was futile and costly, because the Ethiopians were already in the trenches, while the Eritrean were attacking from the open plain. I believe that logic dictates that the Eritrean causalities to be far more than the Ethiopians because: one, they were surprised when they were in their trenches, two once they were out of their trenches, they became sitting ducks to the merciless helicopter gun-ships; third they were forced to attack to recapture their trenches, which was unfamiliar type of fighting style to the Eritreans who were accustomed and trained to fight from inside the trenches.
Talking about lies, the Eritreans claimed that as many as seven Ethiopian MIGS were shot down during the two weeks' fighting. On May 23, Yemane, the spin-doctor, said to the Washington Post, "Three Ethiopian MIG 23 fighter jets were shot and two crashed in Eritrean territory." The Eritrean leadership have never shied away from showing off "their prize", whether of dead bodies or burned out machines. Therefore if the planes crashed in Eritrea, they would have shown them. They have no integrity and qualms to lie. So far, the Ethiopian air-force has lost one helicopter gun-ship, nothing else.
In addition to the assault on the Aiga-Alitena area and the Mereb-Tsorona on the central front, Ethiopian forces from Kuhaien area, i.e. Mai Mine, moved on the east side attacking south of Adi -Quala and controlled the strategic mountain pass of Kesad -Ika and the small town of Enda Giorgis on the road between Rama and Adi Quala.
All the activities I narrated happened on the first day of the assault, May 23, that surprised and put off balance the Eritrean forces on the central front, as a result of which Ethiopian leaders predicted "victory is at hand " within 24 hrs.
The Second Day: May 24
The mechanized forces which launched their offensive from Saboya penetrating Menekuseto split into two, one contingent turned left to Enda Gaber Kokobai, and the other went behind Forto near Senafe, cutting the rear of the Eritrean army stationed at Zalambessa Town. The commando units totally cleaned the trenches of Dalgeda, Aiga, Wankobo., Indabakuma and liberated Irob district completely. In the evening, the Ethiopian Government spokesperson declared, "The enemy force in Zalambessa has also started to collapse and lose ground".
West of Zalmbessa, forces which controlled Seb'o , Una-shehak, Enda-Hawarya, Adi-Qutu and Kudewba on the Tsorona Front and confronted the newly rushed forces the whole day. The Eritrean waves of counter offensive failed miserably. A similar situation was prevailing at Mai Alba too. That was the time when one of the poor Yemanes told the Washington Post, that " the capacity of the Ethiopian armed forces, including its air force, has been severely degraded…"
After bleeding the Eritreans in their counter offensive endeavor, the Ethiopian forces unleashed their own counter offensive and captured the famous Tsorona and Igri Mekel strategically important positions, which allowed them move to the Hazemo plains with full mechanized strength.
"Withdrawing" from Zalambessa
When the Eritrean army was getting a heavy thrashing from left and right of Zalambessa Town, the first class PR guys brought journalists to Zalambessa Town to show and prove that, Meles' prediction did not hold water.
" .. It is quite clear, the Ethiopians haven't advanced very far at all; it seems that the Eritreans have held their positions all along the central front," said BBC correspondence (part-time Eritrean Spokesman) Alex Last in the evening of May 24. And BBC reported on 24 May, 21:49 hrs. (GMT) which means at mid-night local time "Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has confidently predicted the war could be over within days. But our correspondent reports that trucks of Eritrean troops are heading along the mountain roads towards the Zalambessa Front -- an indication that for Eritrea the battle is very much still on."
The Eritrean con-men said that they had repulsed the offensive and kicked out the Ethiopians from where they came. All the reporters were taken, as in the American saying, "for a ride", believing that the Eritreans were bracing themselves for a long drawn fight or they might even reverse the situation and would show them the usual magic trick of enticing the Ethiopians deep into their territory and crush them at last.
This kind of pretentious propaganda did not work this time. As a matter of fact, instead of admitting defeat at the Egela-Zalambessa Front, they came with a funny trick and said, "for the sake of peace" they were complying with a request of redeployment by OAU the and withdrew from Zalambessa at mid-night. To make it authentic, they made their announcement from New York, which has a time count that is seven (7) hours behind the Ethiopian time zone.
When the Ethiopian people woke up the morning of 25 May, it was to the sounds of victory. "The valiant Ethiopian forces raised the Ethiopian flag over Zalambesssa town at midnight," declared the spokesperson. And when the Eritrean people woke up the same morning, they were exposed to rough shock, because they had never thought that they would lose the concrete-fortified trenches which were a kind of tourist attraction-shown to all visiting Eritreans from within the country and from abroad.
Still the next day, May 26, the poor Yemanes were saying "things are not what they appear on the ground; Ethiopia is gaining territory but losing the war". I don't understand from where this kind of logic emanates, because in the first place Ethiopia is not claiming territories; it is trying to crush the army and secondly, because the Eritrean army is being defeated, it is on the run leaving all the depots and war materials intact, dead bodies unburied. In Addis Ababa these days there is a joke which goes like this, "The UN is going to penalize the state of Eritrea for handing over war materials to Ethiopia in breach of the arms embargo."
On 25 May 2000, the Eritrean forces that had tried to flee from the area of Zalmbessa Front were encircled at Forto by the mechanized unit that had cut the road near Senafe. Another contingent that came from Menekuseto to Gaber Kokobai east of Forto and the tank regiment that remained at Zalambessa directed their fire power and annihilated them. The forces that tried to defend Senafe were incapable of doing it because the victorious advancing Ethiopian forces moved fast without wasting-time as a result, denying the enemy forces any respite.
Who are the Yemanes trying to Cheat?
The Ethiopian blitzkrieg has defied the logic understood by all military experts. The "Koreta" tactic which literally means "to cut", was developed by the EPRDF during the armed struggle which brought the Derg to its knees. The Eritrean commanders were in the trenches of Sahel at that time except about 300 artillery and tank personnel among them who came all the way to Addis with the EPRDF (Medhanie Tadesse: The Eritean Ethiopian war). They knew very well how "Koreta" or cutting worked. Maybe the arrogant leadership of the EPLF did not listen to them for their own detriment.
Anyway, as the saying goes, "You can fool some people sometime, but you can not fool all the people all the time."
The international community?
The Yemanes cannot cheat the international community by pretending that they are withdrawing to comply with the OAU appeal, because this appeal was there for the last two years. Furthermore, they know by now that Issayas accepts the peace overture when he is pressed with the a stick from the Ethiopian Armed Forces. On top on that, the big powers follow the whole drama from the sky, using their several satellites and Issayas begs them to save him by writing letters, phoning, etc., persistently.
The Eritrean people? Absolutely not!
The Yemanes cannot cheat the Eritrean people, because they witness the war in front of their very eyes. They hear and see, the artillery barrages, the planes and helicopters hunting the fleeing army and moreover they see the injured soldiers being transported to the rear. Those extreme chauvinist elements who reside abroad, know very well from the media and the situation unfolding. It is diametrically opposed to what they were told by Issayas and his gangs now and then, about how invincible they were and if the "Wayanes" (i.e. Ethiopians) tried to fight them, they would be buried and mowed to pieces before they reach the formidable trenches. When the trenches were evacuated by the Eritrean forces they know it is because of tremendous pressure. Who can accept their lame excuse? No one is a fool! No army builds trenches for two years and abandons it within one day. The army is expected to stay there for years if necessary.
Then, who are they trying to cheat?
Themselves and only themselves! The pro-Italia psyche, inflated ego and unbelievable illusion is the main reason for cheating themselves. Whether they believe it or not, the Ethiopian forces captured Senafe and Barentu, and inflicted a humiliating defeat, by liberating occupied territories and breaking the back bone of the Eritrean army as predicted by P.M Meles almost two years back. The Ethiopian Defense Forces have delivered!
May, 2000
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Ethiopian planes bomb three targets in Eritrea
News and Press Release
Source: PANAPress
Originally published
16 Apr 1999
Ghion Hagos, PANA Correspondent
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (PANA) - Ethiopia said its air force bombed three military targets in Eritrea in two towns near the capital Asmara and a military training camp at Sawa on Thursday.The mid-day air attack on the Eritrean military training camp at Sawa caused heavy damage ''to this strategic military institution and to conscripts awaiting training there,'' an official statement issued Thursday said.
''At the same time, the Ethiopian air force carried out attacks on carefully selected and strategic military targets around the towns of Medefera and Adki-Keyihu, which are situated north of the Zalambessa Egela front,'' the statement said.
It added that the Ethiopian air force successfully completed its missions and all planes returned safely to base.
State television for the first time showed Thursday night images of the air attacks against the three targets in Eritrea.
Eritreaw, however, claimed the Ethiopian fighters had bombed civilian areas in Eritrea, leaving eight children wounded, with some on the critical list.
''Ethiopian fighter planes today (Thursday) bombed the town of Adi Kaieh, the environs of Mendefera and the village of Forto in western Eritrea,'' the foreign ministry said in a statement from Asmara sent to PANA.
It said the bombings were ''high altitude bombings and indiscriminate,'' the statement said.
The attacks were the first sign of fighting reported in two weeks in the ongoing 11-month old border conflict between the two neighbours.
There had been a lull in the conflict since the end of March between ground forces of the two sides on the Badme front in the north-west and on Zalambessa-Igela front in the central area of the common border.
Copyright =A9 1999 Panafrican News Agency. All Rights Reserved.
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History doesn’t necessary repeat itself, however it flow tends to have cyclical nature and actions lead to reactions, if one doesn’t break the cycle and learn from the past.
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The Somali region of Ethiopia seems to be currently the most stable region in Ethiopia, and the perpetual fear people constantly faced for violations, abuses, tortures seems to have ended, with people enjoying more freedoms t then before. Freedom is hard-won and hard-kept, and undoubtedly there is still a long road ahead for the region and it’s people.
But if they let others threaten their hard-won gains and freedom loses its foothold, then the region might return to become the repressive, unstable and miserable place that it was, I hope it won’t.
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7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Talk about undermining Abiy and by extension Cagjar. US might might trying to avoid a blood bath in case Abiy Government falls.
Looks more like one is filling up the fake recently formed coalition with real opposition groups, so that government has a proper counterpart to negotiate with rather then the TPLF and it’s fake alliance alone.
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5 hours ago, Good News said:OR maybe fighting is the only way to get things your way as history of the world shows us. IF the H family didnt fight back then I dont think it'd hve been resolved.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Well I don’t think it was the fighting back that helped rather the leaders that were willing to accommodate. If fighting back was the key solution, Somalia would have been peaceful since the fighting back began in 90’s. And things would have been peaceful from Guriceel, to Beletweyn and Barawe.
Apparently any idiot can fire AK47’s from rooftops, but clearly not every leader is willing to accommodate grievances from various communities and come to acceptable terms of concensus consensus. Coming back to my earlier point, one could learn one or two things from this.
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6 hours ago, Khadafi said:Galbeedi, your new found love for Cabeey Amxaaro just for the sake of fear of the TPLF is infounded. TPLF is to weak,
As a Somali, and a firm beliver in a in non racist pan-somalism I do believe that correcting the horrible injustice that Meneliq and his neftegna Amxaaro commited against the low landers is reflection on whats happening on the ground.
Dont read me wrong. I am not happy for the death and wars in neighboring states but the the french scholar and orientalist of ethiopian studies said in a recent interview "ethiopia is an empire that threw out the skeleton of the caste system that held it together". Everyone who are in line with Ethiopias history knows which ethnic group he and caste group he he is referring to.
Asxaaavey, bal fikiraa, Odaygii boqorki bakhtiyay and who was buried in the table of Mengistu, Xayle said in a BBC-interview "we are a christian nation, he then made claims to all of somalia, eritrea". That was 50 years ago. Things might be diffirent but Galbeedi the peacefull dissolution of Ethiopia and it returning to pre-meneliq borders might be the best for peace and stabity for Somalis. Let them dissolve. Freedom for Oromiya and Cafarta.
Professor Merere Gudina, the oromo who has strong ties to the gaalada and whose ntelecctual non-violent activism turned the oromo cause into a secular one. 50 years ago Merera Gudina had to to take an amhara name and indeed he did so and was named dawit tekele untill 1991 when he changed his name back to the un-official one.
My point is, if the whole nomenklatura dead, just as it died in the soviets let then it die. We Somalis also regressed and failed to become ethno-nation state fashioned on Europe. We regressed back to a tribal lands that the colonialists found us 1888. P-land for m*ijerxxxteniya Somali land for "hargeysa berbera burci" triangle", Southern Somalia with its mixed groups. Somalis have forgotten how the church Roma cathedral was built by forced labour that italians captured and chained. They have forgotten how Xaafun used to the one of the most profitable salt producers in the world and how the italians forced with chains the in the ankle the building that port.
If we as one ethnic group with our multi-culturalism , regressed think about Ethiopia.! Americans can do the talk but belive me once a nation is armed to the teeth no one can stop its state collapse.
2 days dago all of the ministers in Somalia had a briefing and they were discussing the events unfoldning in Somalia and the national Somali intelligence had a report (99,9 coming from the CIA). The ministers were all in shock.
The TPLF despite engaging in a war with cafarta armed to the teeth by flodding the whole nation with 10 tons of ak-47 and 20 tons of bullets. The report spoke about the collapse of the front and how armed militias and now basically running the regions. In Oromiya it is the OLF-soldiers who are now the police . AFL- and the former Read sea front, are now the police and the region army.
The report also mentioned how the TPLF strategy had destablised Somalia. Bullets for ak47 costed 1 dollar per bullet, for one dollar one can now purchase 100 bullets. The hidden arms dealers of of Suuqaha Bakaara are now going to Assawarta and the cost of a Kalashnikov have droped by 50%.
The report strongly recommended the somali army to stop the arms flooding from Ethiopia to Somalia. A certain popular minister with taste for classic somali ironic jokes cracked a joke and said "these americans have these details and know we cant even pass afgooye yet they want to close borders, are thet sane"?.
In summary, the best option for Ethiopia for us Somalis is that they sit and negotiate, the ones who wants to get out from the meneliq of Ethiopia should be allowed to follow article 39 and achieve freedom just as Eritrea did. Jigjiga should prepare fpr this. Hope fully they will join Somalia and become a part of the politics of Mogadishu instead of Addis.
Galbeeda, dantaada meesha ka fiiirso.
Really, is that the solution for Somali galbeed and the chronicle issues facing the region, prepare to join Mogadishu federal politics as a State?
have you learned nothing from history?
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Well at least it was solved quite swiftly, maybe GM could learn something from SW regional leaders in diffusing unnecessary tension and keeping the peace?)
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6 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:Ethiopia’s Civil War Is a Problem U.S. Troops Can Help Solve
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
WWW.BLOOMBERG.COMNot sure what to think of it? And what it would mean for the region.
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I think we are saying the same, that you need the sell right kind of political narrative, and in this current state even a Somali could be propelled to the highest office in Ethiopia and gain support from both domestic elites and international powers.
the question however is, what would that narrative be, e.g. something like?
-We (Somali’s) have for decades put up an armed struggle against the Ethiopian state, but this has lead to the demise of our people, economic and social underdevelopment and to communal disintegration, and rather then advocating for full independence we have adopted an agenda that is better for our people and for Ethiopia, which is to have greater regional autonomy and greater decentralisation of Key government tasks, with the regions having a greater say in the centre and federal government only performing minimum key tasks that can’t be done on regional level such as external policies like foreign, international trade and mobility, inter-regional infrastructure.
-We(Somali’s) have experienced decades of marginalisation, discrimination and ethnic profiling by the federal government, and our aim is not to strive for an Ethiopia that respects the dignity, diversity, equality, and where no tribe dominates the others and where social justice is adhered.
-We (Somali’s) have little to no stakes at federal level and will strive towards economic equality and won’t favour Amhara’s, Oromo’s or Tigrays above the others.
-We(Somali’s) are traditional traders and have an entrepreneurial spirits and want Ethiopia to become a real free market that is conducive for trade, entrepreneurial initiative that will create massive employment and income opportunities for the masses, rather then the current socialistic, planned and government dominated economy that promotes competition between tribes and political corruption with a winner takes all mentality.
-We (Somali’s) want Ethiopia to trade with everyone, not just China. And we don’t want government dominated monopolies but free enterprise, open markets and trade with many countries.
something like that might work, but it’s not only the message, one would need to have a collective campaign targeting both the international community and the various elites across the tribes and regions of Ethiopia. I am not sure if Somali’s are capable of that nor if they can put a internal differences aside for a common goal, or at least come together for a common goal despite having some political and clan related differences/disputes.
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On 11/9/2021 at 8:39 AM, Che -Guevara said:And I am under no illusion as to what an outright civil war means for the region. It will be a catastrophe of monumental proportion. Somalis will not be spared and we can end up worse than what we are now. All of this does not mean we should ignore the possibility of implosion and brutal ethnic wars.
The possibility of Ethiopia imploding are indeed real and I have no pretentious of knowing a solution that satisfies all groups, but I think for Somali’s the best course of action is neither to await for Ethiopia’s demise, for a central autocratic state to gain momentum nor hope for a glorious return of the TPLF. But rather pro-actively take a number of steps, irrespective of the civil wars outcome, and to:
-engage in a regional inter-Somali dialogue with all political factions and parties, and to seek consensus on shared agenda for the Somali region in terms of an advocacy agenda forwards the centre(e.g.bigger share of civil servants in federal institutions, greater budget allocation from key institutions, and other issue’s that Somali need greater autonomy from the centre on(e.g. cross border trade, movement, developing direct diplomatic relations and liaison offices with countries neighbouring the region like Djibouti, Somalia, Somaliland, etc), and for this dialogue to identify pathways to address inter-Somali land disputes and other internal grievances, etc. this dialogue won’t create immediate solutions but rather prepares Somali region for a common agenda whatever the outcome is in Addis, and also reduces the potential vacuum that could lead to devastating inter-clan wars in the Somali region, and also have a common strategy towards neighbouring regions/tribes as the Oromo and Afar.
-For Somali elders to enter in to talks with Afar and Oromo elders and traditional leaders to diffuse ethnic tensions, land disputes and violance, this won’t neither lead to immediate agreements but might help to freeze the emerging conflicts along the border and again diffuse any tensions, and prevent bloody violence and attacks.
-Diplomatically lobby and address with the the Abiy government for greater political, civic space and participation in the Somali region. The local Somali PP branch could try to address grievances by opposition political parties (e.g.ONLF, etc), and make commitments for a greater political participation at local level, and for these parties to participate in municipal and mayoral elections, etc.
-And lastly, the Somali region seems to be at the moment the most stable region with the least active conflicts, and this gives them leverage to advocate for greater decentralisation and opportunity to push forward a political agenda that would most serve the Somali’s during this period of uncertainty and fragility in Addis. They could try to seek a political middle ground between TPLF/OLA’s agenda for ‘independence’ from the centre and the PP’s centralised vision. Even if this is not feasible, Somali’s need to keep a cool ahead and try to think few steps ahead and see what is in their interest. We have been in civil wars and instability for so long, surely we should have learned by now one or two things on conflicts as you have rightly stated, as to what war entails and what could be crucial and civil ways to prevent more bloodshed, and a come to a greater political discourse on narrowing the vacuum and preventing vicious cycle of never ending clan and tribal based instability and polarisation.
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Possible outcomes that could be save facing for all parties and politically be a win-win for both ends of the political sides;
-dialogue and talks with broader spectrum of political actors (beyond the TPLF only), including OLA, and other opposition groups (save facing for Ethiopian government as they designated TPLF and OLA as terrorist);
-Goverbment of national unity, opposition forces joining government with PP vacating 40% of seats in cabinet for opposition and agreeing on potentially opening up political space for others(win for international or western interest);
-Re-run of elections in 2 years with more opportunities for political opposition to participate (big win for OLA/TPLF, and other regional opposition forces);
-withdrawal of all troops to their original regional borders, including western Tigray (win for Tigray, win for Abiy);
-Withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray, except Badme area which is internationally recognised as part of Eritrea which Tigray troops refused to leave, despite the peace deal Abiy made(win for Eritrea);
-Discussion on regional borders subject in agenda for dialogue or/and possibly tbd in a potential future referendum; m
-Immediate transfer of (international) funds, food and resources from central government to rebuild Tigray region (win TPLF), and possibly some funds to other regions;
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Let’s stay with the facts
1. The west doesn’t care about which ethnicity the next PM will be from, they supported Abiy who is an Oromo with a Muslim father. Only Somali’s and some Herreri man Galbeedi had coffee with, seem to care about such nonsense, not understanding Ethiopian political dynamics and what is actually at stake here.
2. The issue that the West does care about is for Ethiopia not to become a ‘China’ like centralised, autocratic and nationalistic state with a planned economy dominated by state run and dominated companies and private sector, and that Ethiopia neither facilitates or enables the real China to gain greater access and inroad in to the wider region of Africa.
3.The TPLF have successfully managed to re-brand and sell themselves, to both the West and some opposition forces, as champions of a different vision of Ethiopia, with a ethno-centric decentralised form of governance in which much of the decision making would be on regional level, which logically would find appeal across the country, ethnic states and with opposition forces.
3. Everyone, including the west, knows that 30 years of brutal centralised and autocratic TPLF rule were quite the opposite of what they are selling us here.
4. But nevertheless do they find appeal and support in the west, and with other states like Egypt, and even support from some opposition forces like the OLA, as the TPLF have the political, military and financial leverage to put a horse in the game and it’s in their interest to challenge the very unappealing political direction of Abiy(see point nr.2), which coincides with the interest of those external and internal actors.
5. Despite the opportunities for wider political affinity and popular support to a decentralised Ethiopian state with much autonomy for the regions and various ethnic groups, no political forces from the Afar’s, Somali’s, Herrari’s and even Oromo’ have been able to form a force and influence the political discourse and present an alternative to Abiy’s model.
6. Most of the politicians and political parties from the Afar’s, Somali’s, Herrari’s and Oromo have been marked by a lack of a unified political vision or even discussion that could form the basis for a political strategy, or forming political alliances across clans and tribes in order to appeal to the masses. Example, look at Jig Jiga where neither ONLF, Mustafe Cagjar and other opposition can’t seem to change the political narrative beyond the usual and futile Reer Abdulle vs. Reer Abdalle nonsense.
7. This lack of an alternative political voice and force, made it quite easy for the current regime, to dominate the political landscape through arresting, intimidating, banning and incorporating the few relevant politicians, and selling uncontested its centralised and nationalistic vision that actually only a small minority of Ethiopians seem to support.
8. Coming back to the subject of the thread, unlike in Somali politics this war and conflict isn’t about the ethnicity of the PM and neither is the solution, it’s about the political direction of Ethiopia. And I am not sure if Somali’s have anything meaningful to contribute to that discussion and direction, as we can’t seem to be able to transcend our usual basic instincts of seeing everything (Ethiopia/Addis) burn (Che), cheerleading a tribe/clan to loot PM/Presidential seats as if they were camels (Galbeedi), ascribing every outcome to alien or western conspiracies (Duufaan), enjoy the Schadenfreude as the misfortunes of others gives us a sense of normality in our own failures (MMA), seeing lights and signs of recognition everywhere when there is not even a glimpse in the dark (Xaaji Xunjuf) or be so emotionally scarred to completely lose sight of the current reality and what is actually going today in the here and now (Khadafi).
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Thousands and thousands of Oromo youth have already flooded Finfinne over the last years, being told Finfinne is Oromo and theirs to capture.
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Nonsense, there are multitude of possible outcomes then independence alone. Tigray, Amhara and Oromo’s are all land locked African tribes and besides independence of a land locked nation is no guarantee for stability and peace, there are already different factions and in fighting between the armed groups. the international community and neither do other African counties want to see new 3x new land locked South-Sudans engaged in never ending civil wars, as that will be the result of independence having no external enemy, one will turn against eachother.
Nevertheless, Something good can come out of end of the all powerful Ethiopian empire, it could also mean a greater greater autonomy and democracy at local level, and devolution of mandates from the central government to the regions and districts. Eventually the PP of Abiy will have to make place both at regional and federal level for the many regional ethnic political factions that he tied to silence, and this is what this war is about, Abiy tried to impose his romantic empire upon the masses.
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Is this political?
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On 10/26/2021 at 4:37 PM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:
Boqolkiiba 12 waa xumaadeen kulahaa. Sheekooy sheeko.
Excellent move by Puntland, this is will give people to experiment and learn governing by the peoples votes. And surprisingly 1/3 of elected Council members are women.
I think only the number of local Councillers is quite excessive, 27 council members for a town of 5000 people, might lead to overkill as all these councillers might expect benefits, influence and status.
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On 10/11/2021 at 10:08 AM, Dalmar1 said:AU/Amisom having a meeting on same day of verdict, looks AU/AMISOM is trying to meddle into Somalia's affair siding by with Kenya
Hahaha, AMISOM is not siding with Kenya, but they are preparing for a silent coupe d’estate while Somali government distracted and intoxicated with celebrating the maritime verdict.
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Maybe it’s modesty, as one didn’t want to steal away spotlight of those people who have put much effort over the years, think of the Deputy PM and President.
Somaliland, time for some people’s diplomacy
in Politics
Posted
Back in the days when Xaaji Xunjuf wasn’t a reactionary but used to respond intellectually to ideas.