Somalia: Meles Zenawi’s Iraq?
By Alem Mamo
April 19, 2007
There is an Ethiopian adage which goes literally as: "She stirs someone else’s pot while her own is burning." This saying rightly sums up the behaviour of the current regime in Addis Ababa. The belligerent and dismissive nature of the government led by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has plunged the country into a political crisis and economic difficulties. that cannot be resolved by the government's desperate decision to ration 25 kilos of wheat a month to poor urbanites. Currently, there are thousands of political prisoners including elected members of parliament languishing in jail on trumped up charges of ‘genocide’ and ‘treason.’
The general political atmosphere in the country is primarily of a plain cloth dictatorship, which desires to sustain its hold on power not through popular support but through the barrel of the gun, empty rhetoric and ‘contribution’ to the so-called ‘war on terror,’ a bandwagon which reserves seats to ruthless dictators such as Meles Zenawi, Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan just to name a few.
While the country is in a deplorable circumstance of political instability, economic stagnation and social unrest, Zenawi gives a marching order to his troops to invade Somalia and terrorize the people of Mogadishu claiming an ‘invitation’ by the ‘internationally recognized’ Transitional Government of Somalia, which is a consortium of once defeated warlords. In reality no legitimate government in its right mind will authorize foreign invasion and subsequent occupation of its own country. After all, the so-called Transitional Federal Government of Somalia wields little or no legitimacy as far as the people of Somalia are concerned.
While the EPRDF regime flexes its mussles on Somalia, the people of Ethiopia are going through the second collective trauma in their history. I say the second trauma because the first one ended when the military regime was overthrown in 1991. During the military regime torture, extrajudicial killings and disappearances were commonplace across the country. As a result, the general public was subjected to collective anguish and trauma. When the military regime was toppled, there was a sigh of relief hoping that Ethiopia would never go through such dark experience again. Unfortunately, it was misplaced optimism and false hope. Soon after consolidating power the Meles regime began to repeat exactly the same kind of mapractises of the military junta.
I travelled to Ethiopia very recently and had the opportunity to meet people from various sections of the society. Most of the people I spoke to told me that they felt as if they reached a dead-end. The level of hopelessness and desperation is apparent in every conversation and discussions I had. I remember growing up in Ethiopia the way we use to whisper about the regime. In my recent visit to Ethiopia, one of the individuals I talked to reminded me to keep my voice down and he said: "This is dictatorship part two." I felt as if I was transported back in time to the dark days where we were told: ‘ With us or against us.’ It obviously gave me the chill.
So given all these circumstances Ethiopia is facing, why did Prime Minister Meles Zenawi decided to invade Somalia? In my opinion, there are two major reasons, Firstly, to demonstrate his loyalty to Washington’s so called ‘war on terror’ and secondly, to portray his regime as stable and capable of taking on regional issues beyond its own borders.
Ethiopia’s involvement in Somali affair has both internal and external factors. Firstly, the internal political circumstances, which contributed to Prime Minister Zenawi’s involvement, goes back to the May 2005 highly contested general election. After losing most of the urban and rural constituencies the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) controlled government began to crackdown on opposition parties, closing their offices and arresting leaders and members of the opposition. When protesters began to voice their anger on the streets the government responded with brutal force killing more than 193 unarmed civilians and wounding many. The standoff between the majority of the Ethiopian people and the EPRDF is still ongoing. The internal political situation in Ethiopia therefore remains unresolved and even more explosive.
In the post 9/11 world any political entity that calls itself Islamic will not only raise eyebrows in Washington it will also face overt as well as covert confrontation from the Pentagon and the CIA. When the Union Of Islamic Courts (UIC) swiftly extended it’s control over most of Somalia last summer it brought law and order to a country which only knew anarchy and lawlessness for the past 15 years. It provided Somalia with desperately needed security and stability. As a result, Somalis were able to carry on their daily business and family activities without fear. Unfortunately, this tranquility was short lived. The involvement of Ethiopian military in Somalia is proven to be a major factor in destabilizing Somalia and perhaps even plunging the entire Horn of Africa into a very dangerous and disastrous conflict.
The current regime in Addis Ababa, has suffered from lack of popular support since it came to power in 1991. After the May 2005 election the popular discontent is visible in all parts of the country. Diverting attention from the internal problem by creating external ‘threat’ is the oldest trick in the book. Precisely, this is what the EPRDF regime seems to be trying to accomplish internally by sending it’s military to Somalia. Whether such diversion will pay off in prolonging the regimes hold on power remains to be seen.
Similar to the Cold War political game, in the post 9/11 world some governments in the developing world once again are evaluated based on their performance on the ‘war on terror’ not on their record of good governance and respect to human rights. They are not accountable to the people they were supposed to serve and protect. To the contrary, they terrorize their own people and swear allegiance to the ‘leader of the free world’ as members of the ‘coalition of the willing’
Authoritarian regimes are quick to ally themselves with superpowers. During the cold war dictators such us Mobutu Sese Seko were frequent visitors of the White House and other European cities enjoying lavish official welcomes. In return they brutalized their people, ruined their countries and economy.
It is déjà vu all over again that after 911, authoritarian regimes such as Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia pledged their allegiance to the so-called ‘war on terror’ seeking approval and friendship from the only superpower, the United States and its main ally the United Kingdom. In order to override the internal problem and the suffering of the Ethiopian people, Prime Minister Zenawi accepted the outsourcing of the ‘war on terror’ for the US. Obviously, it is a very ‘efficient’ way of doing business given the impending quagmire the US is facing in Iraq and the surge of the Taliban in Afghanistan. In return, Prime Minister Zenawi will continue to rule with an iron fist. The United States will pay back the favour by looking the other way to such blatant violation of human rights and the of rule of law. In the final analysis, who are the victims of the so-called ‘war on terror’? In the case of the Horn of Africa, the people of Ethiopia and Somalia are the direct victims of the ‘war on terror.’
The so-called swift victory in Somalia by the Ethiopian army and the fragile Somali Transitional Federal Government forces will be short lived and it is delusional. Somalia is governed by a very complex indigenous clan system. Any superimposed form of government is primarily a reflection of a political arrogance based on one-size fits all approach. It appears that the Union of Islamic Courts had made serious political errors by branding themselves as and Islamic, even though, they have every right to do so and refusing to negotiate with the weak Transitional Federal Government of President Abdullahi Yusuf. However, the so-called ‘defeat’ of the ICU doesn’t mean the ICU is out of the game. Their loyalty to Islam and their allegiance to Somali nationalism is their major asset. The people of Somalia have viewed the Courts as the only home grown entity that will bring the Somalis together regardless of clan divisions. Given the respect and popularity the ICU had won amongst the Somali people, it is a matter of time before ICU and other Somali nationalist groups openly begin challenging the so called Transitional Federal Government parachuted to power by Meles and the tacit approval of the United Sates.
What will happen in Somalia next is everyone’s guess. However one thing is certain; the instability and volatility in Somalia and the Horn of Africa at large has been exacerbated. Zenawi's invasion of Somalia and the tacit approval of the United States has provided an opportunity to the global radical movement to effectively assert themselves in the Horn Africa to ‘protect the Muslim lands from crusaders and their slaves’ as described by Al Qaeda’s number two Ayman Al-Zewahiri.
As the world watches in agony the sinking of Iraq into bloodbath, the alliance between the US and Ethiopia has created a third front. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi repeatedly over inflated the threat by ICU to justify his illegal invasion of Somalia. It sounds all familiar doesn’t it? We have seen the same pack of lies supported by charts and graphs claiming the existence of WMD in Iraq. In the end, the so-called WMD seems to vanish in thin air. The question we need to ask this time is that, is ICU a threat to Ethiopia and the rest of the world? The answer is absolutely not; if they did have any military capability to pause a threat they could have stood their ground and resisted the invading forces. What happen in Somalia in recent months only asserts the views of those who believe that the United States and its allies are against Islam. As for the people of Ethiopia and Somalia, it seems they will both continue to suffer at the hands of their own leaders supported by the heads of the ‘free world.’
Is this the creation of Iraq in the Horn of Africa? The answer is may be not in terms of scale and magnitude at this time. However, given the tragic past of Somalia and the willingness of Somalis to fight, there is no guarantee that a much worse situation will not emerge as a result of Zenawi’s invasion to install defeated warlords as governors. Whatever the outcomes, war, occupation and the consequences of any conflict are all the same. Unarmed civilian women, children and the elderly are the primary victims. As we have witnessed both in Somalia and Iraq the death toll of the civilian population is the most tragic consequence of any occupation. Politically the resentment of Muslims against Meles Zenawi’s regime and even perhaps Ethiopians could be unavoidable. In terms of causalities and bloodshed we have already begun to see mutilated bodies of civilians lying on the streets of Mogadishu. Mothers are wailing, children are crying for help and the elderly are locked up with no means to escape.
By over inflating the threat and sending the army in to Somalia through the ‘approval’ of the sleepy Ethiopian parliament Prime Minister of Ethiopia has obtained unrestricted access to a messy neighbour. The EPRDF regime must learn from the history of Ethiopia itself. Remember? In 1896 the traditional army of Ethiopia defeated one of the most sophisticated and advanced Italian colonial army. Therefore, if the perceived military might is intoxicating their rational thinking the Meles regime needs to stop, reflect and learn from history. Military might doesn’t necessarily bring enduring victory. It may also bring defeat and humiliation. Looking across the Red Sea to Iraq is quite sufficient.
The people of Ethiopia and Somalia are neighbours and they will always be. Governments come and go! Neighbours will always remain neighbours.
Finally, here is what I think is the right thing to do for the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. He should withdraw his troops from Somalia immediately. Release all political prisoners. Call genuine and all-inclusive national reconciliations in Ethiopia accept the outcome of the last national election. Please do not meddle in the affairs of neighbouring countries while the socio-political problems in our country are deteriorating every day. Ethiopia cannot afford to sustain another Iraq, created by a home-grown tyrant, while her poverty-stricken people continue to suffer under dictatorship.
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