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Posts posted by xiinfaniin

  1. Oodweyne,


    Unless you have been afflicted with Macno Yare's cuqdad for all things Puntland or the clans inhabiting Puntland, my post is clear in its presentation as to what the scope of my rethinking is.


    As to the fate and future of Somali patriotism, it is fair to say Xiinfaniin's ilk have better Somali vision than your secessionist ilk and those you wrongly termed the Pashtun's of Somalia. But be that as it may, today's Somalia is headed towards federalism, which I think is a more realistic political framework than the stuff you and your USC friends are entertaining aka North-South confederation :D.


    Unlike Macno Yare's insinuation, as far as that argument is concern, federalism is becoming a political reality in Somalia. The Jubbaland scenario materialized exactly the way we predicted. The opposition in Mogadishu is losing its thrill, Hassan Sheekh despite his resistance has come to the conclusion that the cost of resisting outweighs the benefit.


    The Caravan got derailed not because Puntland or Jubbaland lost the political game (obviously they are winning it in way that is clear to all however selfish and regionally centered). Rather it got derailed because it had underestimated the depth of the political mistrust among Somali stakeholders.

  2. looool@Pashtun of Somalia


    Lammaanihii reer-waqooyi have arrived :D


    Oodweyne awoowe soo dhawow, it has been awhile. It has been a well established fact that you and Mintid (Macno Yare of SOL) have a deep rooted problem with Puntland :D. Your two posts are clear testimony for that.


    You both missed the point of my post.

  3. Odey;982951 wrote:
    This is very premature. They should have held this meeting in MOG and or Galkacyo or Beledweyne or any other Region in SOMALIA!. Besides there was no consultations with people on the ground and the result was this:




    One other thing and this is a question for Malistar- I recall you dismissing the Jubba initiative as Kenyan. That initiative was started and finished in a conference in Kismaayo. How would you class this one that :


    A- did take place in Kenya

    B- Never consulted the Locals except for a few select

    C- Doesn't have representation from the people of these regions except for - Galgadud and South Mudug

    In Malistar2012 mind:


    Jubbaland or Kismayo conference was wrong and is still wrong as long the 'enemy clan' is leading it or is perceived to be the beneficiary of it.


    The so called central regions conference in Nairobi is good because all the invitees are Malistar2012 cousins (Qaybdiid, Cadaado guy, and the Fart City's guy)


    An airtight clannish logic :D

  4. Yes Libax, the gulf between Somalis has indeed widened even further.


    Apo, perhaps I was akin to Nizam's (the famous Persian poet) fictional character (Majnun), the young man who hopelessly fell in love with unavailable woman :D . If you read Malistar's rebuttal above, you could see a Somalia shared with the likes of Malistar2012 is a Somalia that cannot be indeed.

  5. This week I have forced my self to contribute to this beloved forum of Somalia Online. For months it was clear to me that I was coming down with a peculiar cynicism regarding the prospect of secure, peaceful, and united Somalia. I have greatly struggled to reject the feeling. But the pretense of hopefulness only exacerbated my internal conflict. My thrill and excitement for a permanent break from the depressing Somali situation has finally gone. I suspect my age played a role in reaching such a conclusion. After all, I just turned 40 ---an age that is indicative of maturity. Even God spoke men only when they reach this age.


    What this means is my passionate argument in these boards that Somalis are ripe for reconciliation, the there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that we reached a tipping point, that we can indeed resolve our conflict by ourselves, or we actually turned a page in our long civil war to a better tomorrow is no longer valid given the stubborn reality and the resultant tragedy that's refused to go away. Though I still stand by my original diagnosis of Somali ills, namely that they are political in nature and are worsened by clannish animosity and poor leadership at the national level, I do indeed realize that I was wrong in my estimate of how long it would take to overcome the conflict.


    What broke the camel's back for me is the current government which showed unacceptable level of incompetence in managing our twenty plus year conflict. Current leadership in Mogadishu has sadly turned the knife quite deep. And by doing so, they handed the South Central of the country (perhaps with the exception of Jubbaland) to AMISOM.


    The country will be fragmented along regional states. SL, PL and JL are already realities (with minor teaks) that cannot be reversed. With the presence of AMISOM, and Alshabaan the rest of the country will take time to develop solid political entities. And that in turn will mean Somalia as many of us had hopped will not be. It will be very difficulty to envision a federated Somalia when significant portion of Somali population oppose the federalism framework (even though the constitution mandates it). Equally hard to imagine is how a central authority could ever develop the political legitimacy and legal mandate needed to govern when plurality of the country is quite resolved to implement federalism. Had it not been current SFG's intransigence and arrogance, this stalemate would have been mitigated. President Hassan and Prime Minister Shirdon have indeed underestimated the effect of civil war on the country and how the significant demographic change in Mogadishu affects any future political framework in the country. The situation is so bad, trust so lost, that even if the leadership genuinely attempts now to right the situation, success will be limited at best, if not unachievable.


    Kenya and Ethiopia will continue to play an important role in Somali affairs. The odds are Somalis (especially those in Mogadishu and its vicinity) will continue to cry wolf about foreign intervention and what not when indeed they ignore the real elephant in the room which is the mistrust among Somalis themselves. Alshabaab or variations of it will continue to benefit from this same mistrust and will have a significant presence in important regions and areas in the South/Central.


    International Community will sadly continue to view Somalia in the lenses of fighting terrorism. With Western donor money and AMISOM boots on the ground, the current thinking of containing the Somali problem seems to be gaining momentum. The Turks proved to be ill equipped in understanding the Somali conflict : on the political side, their engagement with Alshabaab resulted in Alshabaab (ironically) greatly consolidating its rank-n-file while the talks between Hargeysa and Mogadishu show no signs of progress. On the development side, their concentration on Mogadishu resulted in Puntland (a major stakeholder) resentment toward what it perceives to be a one sided Turkish aid.


    The Diaspora is divided as ever. A week or so ago I participated a day long AMISOM organized Diaspora conference in Minneapolis. Although there were many of us with impressive education and experience, in my assessment, our differences in understanding what the conflict is all about, and the ways to resolve it were so different that we were nothing but an illustrative manifestation of the very conflict we were supposed to help mitigate. At the end the net result of the conference was a watered down recommendation that was so shallow in substance it was not worth the paper it was written on. But we were civil and agreeable. The Diaspora is not in a position to help in a unified way.


    All that indicates we are indeed far from resolving our political conflict. The peace caravan has died in Mogadishu. It is official: Hassan Sheekh read its last rites.


    Still though I believe the Somali people will continue to excel and succeed wherever there are laws: in Kenya, in Ethiopia, in Middle East, in Europe, and in America. Even in the parts of Somalia where there is a resemblance of law and order.


    From xiinfaniin, a keyboard waranle turned into online xerow

  6. Hawdian;981622 wrote:
    The talks are only between the former british Somaliland and the former italian colony of somalia . present day they r republic of Somaliland and the state of fed. Somaliya so the argument about clans is not valid. Who the talks are between is already a concluded agreement and signed a bit late to make objections now .

    You would have a point there had it not been the glaring political realities that contradict, dare I say impede the talks. The two parties to the talks are well defined: SFG and Somaliland administration. However, we all know the political mandate and the reach of SFG authority in the country. We also know the political mandate and reach of SL administration in the North. Which means, settling the question of secession is not a realistic deliverable from these talks.


    Hope was in the air when these talks were constituted in London. However,today the political contours of the country have taken a sharp turn, leaving the country more polarized as ever. One understands the talks unto itself are perceived as a source of legitimacy by both parties as they present opportunity for SL to hone their bargaining skills in international arenas, and for SFG, it is the only credible political exercise that has a traction (a positive one at that) in many circles i.e. region & IC.


    But beyond that, both entities have no mandate to reach a deal. If you've been following the talks, you can attest to what I am saying.

  7. Referendum within the borders of old British Somaliland is not feasible in current political climate.


    The conflict in Somalia is political in nature. Politics in Somalia is organized around clans. That is to say clan allegiance drive political discourse in the country. There are two major clans in the North and East: The Mothers and D block. Though they are two distinct clans, the lands they graze and political jurisdictions they claim are not. Case in point: when clans in the north declared independence from Somalia, clans in the East rejected the declaration. When Clans in Puntland declared an autonomous state, clans in the North rejected the declaration.


    That is why referendum in the North will not resolve what is essentially a clan driven political disagreement.

    ...and that is just one reason why referendum is not feasible. A more powerful argument against a refferundum in which only pro secessionist clans vote is the fact the union was sanctioned by all Somalis in 1960. All Somalis, the arguments goes, shall therefore vote to either nullify the union or reaffirm it.

  8. The talks are not dead. However, just like Oodweyne predicted, current leadership in Somaliland has failed to appreciate the whole reason for which these talks have been sanctioned in the first place. That the talks are entering in discussion of final status (union and how), Somaliland leadership is now starting to realize the magnitude of what they signed up for. It is not that the talks are difficulty. It is rather that this leadership is not prepared to face the reality of a failed recognition bid and discuss alternative solutions to the prolonged political isolation.


    Fortunately for Somaliland, the leadership in Mogadishu are nursing self inflicted wounds of their own, and have neither the mandate nor the political will to engage in serious talks. The Turks are left to hold the bag. We shall see how they proceed.

  9. Nuradin's artistry in employing rather oblique essay to indict President Hassan's year plus performance in office is quite interesting. For an accomplished author like Nuradin, one understands the approach. The suggested take-away from this article are equally slanted: either president Hassan is so incompetent to rise up to the challenges Somalia presents to his leadership, or he is knee deep in small minded politicking (driven by clan or ideology) that he is blinded to the consequences of his actions (or in actions in some cases).


    I consider myself an avid follower of Somali politics. In my observations of the president's style, it is his utter indecisiveness that pronounces his folly the most.


    A word of advise to brother OdeySomali: indicting Nuradin's essay on emotional grounds (his lack of sympathy or lack of appreciation of the situation the president is in) does indeed belittle your otherwise rationale objections to this New York piece. Nuradin may not share your assessment of the situation. If one reads his piece, one sees an eloquent disappointment in the president's performance---A disappointment many of us share.

  10. The only measure we have to gauge whether Somaliland is closer to recognition is Oodweyne, Jacalybaro, and NGONGE. The fact they have been AWOL from these boards tells us for our brothers in the North recognition is no longer a feasible goal to pursue.


    But the Turkish leaders are up for something, and Siilaanyo and the entire SL leadership are wise to secure Turks involvement in the negotiation.

  11. A Cumar Cabdirashid run in Puntland presidential election will greatly benefit Faroole. It will finish off the already diminishing prospect of Abdiweli win, and strengthen Faroole's hand. Those who are in the know would agree


    This rumor may not come to pass.


    As for Saacid Shirdon, I think he will survive for two reasons. 1) President Hassan Mohamud is a poor decision maker, not a decisive man. Given the political difficulties surrounding sucking Saacid, the president will eventually settle in keeping him for convenience. 2) President Hassan has a very narrow group as a base. The same base also supports Saacid. To go against the advice of his already limited circle would require a foresight and bravery, two qualities that the president has not exhibited in the year he was on the helm.


    As much as the political circumstances the country is in demand a change at the PM level, this president is not ready to make such a decision.

  12. ^^Alle-ubaahane will urge the government to sabotage this development simply because it benefits the enemy clan. I am sure Hassan Sheekh's offices will consider favorably Alle-ubaahane's request.


    Very soon Dayniile will report that the Ministry or Foreign Affairs filed a complaint with Kuwait regarding this matter :D

  13. DFS oo shaacisay inuu waxba kama jiraan yahay dhaman heshiisyadii shidaal baadhista ee maamul goboleedyadu la galeen shirkadaha shisheeye



    Dowlada Federaalka Somalia ayaa waxba kama jiraan ku tilmaantay dhamaan heshiisyadii shidaal baadhista ee maamul goboleedyada Somalia la galeen shirkadaha shidaalka baadha.


    DFS waxay shaacisay in heshiisyadii ay somaliland iyo Puntaland la galeen shirkada shidaalka uusan waxba kajirin.


    ‘‘Heshiis kasta iyo qandaraas kasta oo ay bixiyeen maamul goboleedyada xubnaha ka ah dowlada dhexe waa waxba kama jiraan, shirkadaha haysta shatiyada maamul goboleedyada aa inay heshiis cusub la galaan DFS.’’ ayuu yidhi wasiirka khayraadka ee DFS Cabdirisaaq Cumar Maxamed.