xiinfaniin

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Posts posted by xiinfaniin


  1. After Barre Hiiraale and other Jubbaland 'Presidents' have been roundly defeated and expelled from the city, the Jubbaland federal state trajectory become clearly inevitable. There is a single political leadership in the region, that of Ahmed Madoobe and his deputy General Fartaag. IC and neighboring countries are in agreement. AMISOM and UNISOM has accepted what Hassan Sheekh long opposed.

     

    Under pressure, and with no political capital to spend, Hassan Sheekh will do what Saacid was invited to do but failed to carry on. Come to Kismayo and speak to the five hundred delegates that midwifed the Jubbaland agreement.

     

    It will be great day for the Jubbaland , and its future. For Hassan, this is not a a trip he would have liked to take had the decision was left to him.


  2. Baashi;983349 wrote:

     

    Just as Oodweyne and other biased secessionists out there, the clan activists in Benadir who paid precious blood and treasure for the singular reason that they want to alter Somalia’s political power scale, are at loss in how things are shaping up.

     

    If the current course is left unchecked or unimpeded all the blood spilled and properties destroyed in order to defeat a large segment of the population would be in vain. To them, Somali civil war and all the destruction it had brought was necessary price to get rid of the clan dictatorship that dominated the political discourse of the nation before and after independence.

     

    There is a reason why Oodweyne is living in parallel universe where the conflict has already been settled and one party has emerged victorious and is now calling the shots in the South. Oodweyne’s
    hallucination
    is a text book e
    xample of folks who exhibit schizophrenia over a desired outcome
    .

     

    ...

    Well said Baashi.

     

    Our brothers in the north are giving the game away by coming out so strongly against Faroole, Puntland, and Jubbaland. Even Xiinfaniin posts frustrates them.

     

    I will come back to the Lander's, and Macno Yare's 'cantrabaqash' insha Allaah when the time permits.


  3. Oodweyne,

     

    I didn't think it would require me to break it down to you, but obviously we must do so in order to keep the discussion in its original context.

     

    A quick recap of the current Somali situation is in order:

     

    1. A failing government in Mogadishu. Failing because since it came into being it failed to make any significant political and security progress on the ground. And based on the Brussels road map, all indications are that it will fail to meet most of the important mile stones.

     

    2. An strengthened Alshabaab in the South. Strengthened because the only forces keeping them at bay are foreign forces. Since 2012 after they lost Kismayo, Baydhabo, and Marka Alshabaab managed to not only survive but to also continue to be on the offense, succeeding to pull off impressive attacks on important targets, mainly in Mogadishu. If anything this shows that this organization is far from defeat. And according to the AMISOM leadership, defeating Alshabaab through military means is not a practical objective that can be achieved in their current capacity.

     

    3. A deepening loss of trust among important stakeholders in the country. Puntland (I know you would lough it off) is dangerously serious in its position on the question of federalism. Mogadishu leadership are absolutely ill-equipped to move a needle on this important question partly because they themselves are deeply divided on how to move forward, and partly because they perceive a potential political backlash from President's own base. It is fair to say another reason they are sluggish on this front is the fact they are still entertaining to bring Hargeysa on-board with some sort of South-North confederation.

     

    4. On the deepening mistrust, Jubbaland is slowly moving to attain a full federal state. The President and his team threw everything at it to no avail. In few months time, there will be a decisive move on this front. Though many of us welcome the emergence of another federal state especially in the South-Central Somalia, the political environment in which this will materialize signifies that this will not be a wholesome development the same way SL and PL are not. This is an important miss in our Caravan's promise.

     

    5. Somaliland is still busy butting its poor head against Somalia's territorial integrity if we take what the leadership are saying on face value. In other words, there is no movement on that front.

     

     

    In summary, a poor leadership in Mogadishu coupled with undefeated Alshabaab, and a predatory , opportunistic African forces that sees Somalia as a project spells a deadly combination. If this continues (signs are it will continue), our negative appraisal of the situation is sadly accurate.

     

    This does not mean we are hopeless. It just means our Caravan's destination has been blocked. In Oodweyne village tradition, this means "ha dhakhlayso" for we have Puntland and Jubbaland ...:D


  4. Oodweyne,

     

    Unless you have been afflicted with Macno Yare's cuqdad for all things Puntland or the clans inhabiting Puntland, my post is clear in its presentation as to what the scope of my rethinking is.

     

    As to the fate and future of Somali patriotism, it is fair to say Xiinfaniin's ilk have better Somali vision than your secessionist ilk and those you wrongly termed the Pashtun's of Somalia. But be that as it may, today's Somalia is headed towards federalism, which I think is a more realistic political framework than the stuff you and your USC friends are entertaining aka North-South confederation :D.

     

    Unlike Macno Yare's insinuation, as far as that argument is concern, federalism is becoming a political reality in Somalia. The Jubbaland scenario materialized exactly the way we predicted. The opposition in Mogadishu is losing its thrill, Hassan Sheekh despite his resistance has come to the conclusion that the cost of resisting outweighs the benefit.

     

    The Caravan got derailed not because Puntland or Jubbaland lost the political game (obviously they are winning it in way that is clear to all however selfish and regionally centered). Rather it got derailed because it had underestimated the depth of the political mistrust among Somali stakeholders.


  5. looool@Pashtun of Somalia

     

    Lammaanihii reer-waqooyi have arrived :D

     

    Oodweyne awoowe soo dhawow, it has been awhile. It has been a well established fact that you and Mintid (Macno Yare of SOL) have a deep rooted problem with Puntland :D. Your two posts are clear testimony for that.

     

    You both missed the point of my post.


  6. Odey;982951 wrote:
    This is very premature. They should have held this meeting in MOG and or Galkacyo or Beledweyne or any other Region in SOMALIA!. Besides there was no consultations with people on the ground and the result was this:

     

     

     

    One other thing and this is a question for Malistar- I recall you dismissing the Jubba initiative as Kenyan. That initiative was started and finished in a conference in Kismaayo. How would you class this one that :

     

    A- did take place in Kenya

    B- Never consulted the Locals except for a few select

    C- Doesn't have representation from the people of these regions except for - Galgadud and South Mudug

    In Malistar2012 mind:

     

    Jubbaland or Kismayo conference was wrong and is still wrong as long the 'enemy clan' is leading it or is perceived to be the beneficiary of it.

     

    The so called central regions conference in Nairobi is good because all the invitees are Malistar2012 cousins (Qaybdiid, Cadaado guy, and the Fart City's guy)

     

    An airtight clannish logic :D


  7. Yes Libax, the gulf between Somalis has indeed widened even further.

     

    Apo, perhaps I was akin to Nizam's (the famous Persian poet) fictional character (Majnun), the young man who hopelessly fell in love with unavailable woman :D . If you read Malistar's rebuttal above, you could see a Somalia shared with the likes of Malistar2012 is a Somalia that cannot be indeed.


  8. This week I have forced my self to contribute to this beloved forum of Somalia Online. For months it was clear to me that I was coming down with a peculiar cynicism regarding the prospect of secure, peaceful, and united Somalia. I have greatly struggled to reject the feeling. But the pretense of hopefulness only exacerbated my internal conflict. My thrill and excitement for a permanent break from the depressing Somali situation has finally gone. I suspect my age played a role in reaching such a conclusion. After all, I just turned 40 ---an age that is indicative of maturity. Even God spoke men only when they reach this age.

     

    What this means is my passionate argument in these boards that Somalis are ripe for reconciliation, the there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that we reached a tipping point, that we can indeed resolve our conflict by ourselves, or we actually turned a page in our long civil war to a better tomorrow is no longer valid given the stubborn reality and the resultant tragedy that's refused to go away. Though I still stand by my original diagnosis of Somali ills, namely that they are political in nature and are worsened by clannish animosity and poor leadership at the national level, I do indeed realize that I was wrong in my estimate of how long it would take to overcome the conflict.

     

    What broke the camel's back for me is the current government which showed unacceptable level of incompetence in managing our twenty plus year conflict. Current leadership in Mogadishu has sadly turned the knife quite deep. And by doing so, they handed the South Central of the country (perhaps with the exception of Jubbaland) to AMISOM.

     

    The country will be fragmented along regional states. SL, PL and JL are already realities (with minor teaks) that cannot be reversed. With the presence of AMISOM, and Alshabaan the rest of the country will take time to develop solid political entities. And that in turn will mean Somalia as many of us had hopped will not be. It will be very difficulty to envision a federated Somalia when significant portion of Somali population oppose the federalism framework (even though the constitution mandates it). Equally hard to imagine is how a central authority could ever develop the political legitimacy and legal mandate needed to govern when plurality of the country is quite resolved to implement federalism. Had it not been current SFG's intransigence and arrogance, this stalemate would have been mitigated. President Hassan and Prime Minister Shirdon have indeed underestimated the effect of civil war on the country and how the significant demographic change in Mogadishu affects any future political framework in the country. The situation is so bad, trust so lost, that even if the leadership genuinely attempts now to right the situation, success will be limited at best, if not unachievable.

     

    Kenya and Ethiopia will continue to play an important role in Somali affairs. The odds are Somalis (especially those in Mogadishu and its vicinity) will continue to cry wolf about foreign intervention and what not when indeed they ignore the real elephant in the room which is the mistrust among Somalis themselves. Alshabaab or variations of it will continue to benefit from this same mistrust and will have a significant presence in important regions and areas in the South/Central.

     

    International Community will sadly continue to view Somalia in the lenses of fighting terrorism. With Western donor money and AMISOM boots on the ground, the current thinking of containing the Somali problem seems to be gaining momentum. The Turks proved to be ill equipped in understanding the Somali conflict : on the political side, their engagement with Alshabaab resulted in Alshabaab (ironically) greatly consolidating its rank-n-file while the talks between Hargeysa and Mogadishu show no signs of progress. On the development side, their concentration on Mogadishu resulted in Puntland (a major stakeholder) resentment toward what it perceives to be a one sided Turkish aid.

     

    The Diaspora is divided as ever. A week or so ago I participated a day long AMISOM organized Diaspora conference in Minneapolis. Although there were many of us with impressive education and experience, in my assessment, our differences in understanding what the conflict is all about, and the ways to resolve it were so different that we were nothing but an illustrative manifestation of the very conflict we were supposed to help mitigate. At the end the net result of the conference was a watered down recommendation that was so shallow in substance it was not worth the paper it was written on. But we were civil and agreeable. The Diaspora is not in a position to help in a unified way.

     

    All that indicates we are indeed far from resolving our political conflict. The peace caravan has died in Mogadishu. It is official: Hassan Sheekh read its last rites.

     

    Still though I believe the Somali people will continue to excel and succeed wherever there are laws: in Kenya, in Ethiopia, in Middle East, in Europe, and in America. Even in the parts of Somalia where there is a resemblance of law and order.

     

    From xiinfaniin, a keyboard waranle turned into online xerow


  9. Hawdian;981622 wrote:
    The talks are only between the former british Somaliland and the former italian colony of somalia . present day they r republic of Somaliland and the state of fed. Somaliya so the argument about clans is not valid. Who the talks are between is already a concluded agreement and signed a bit late to make objections now .

    You would have a point there had it not been the glaring political realities that contradict, dare I say impede the talks. The two parties to the talks are well defined: SFG and Somaliland administration. However, we all know the political mandate and the reach of SFG authority in the country. We also know the political mandate and reach of SL administration in the North. Which means, settling the question of secession is not a realistic deliverable from these talks.

     

    Hope was in the air when these talks were constituted in London. However,today the political contours of the country have taken a sharp turn, leaving the country more polarized as ever. One understands the talks unto itself are perceived as a source of legitimacy by both parties as they present opportunity for SL to hone their bargaining skills in international arenas, and for SFG, it is the only credible political exercise that has a traction (a positive one at that) in many circles i.e. region & IC.

     

    But beyond that, both entities have no mandate to reach a deal. If you've been following the talks, you can attest to what I am saying.


  10. Referendum within the borders of old British Somaliland is not feasible in current political climate.

     

    The conflict in Somalia is political in nature. Politics in Somalia is organized around clans. That is to say clan allegiance drive political discourse in the country. There are two major clans in the North and East: The Mothers and D block. Though they are two distinct clans, the lands they graze and political jurisdictions they claim are not. Case in point: when clans in the north declared independence from Somalia, clans in the East rejected the declaration. When Clans in Puntland declared an autonomous state, clans in the North rejected the declaration.

     

    That is why referendum in the North will not resolve what is essentially a clan driven political disagreement.

    ...and that is just one reason why referendum is not feasible. A more powerful argument against a refferundum in which only pro secessionist clans vote is the fact the union was sanctioned by all Somalis in 1960. All Somalis, the arguments goes, shall therefore vote to either nullify the union or reaffirm it.


  11. The talks are not dead. However, just like Oodweyne predicted, current leadership in Somaliland has failed to appreciate the whole reason for which these talks have been sanctioned in the first place. That the talks are entering in discussion of final status (union and how), Somaliland leadership is now starting to realize the magnitude of what they signed up for. It is not that the talks are difficulty. It is rather that this leadership is not prepared to face the reality of a failed recognition bid and discuss alternative solutions to the prolonged political isolation.

     

    Fortunately for Somaliland, the leadership in Mogadishu are nursing self inflicted wounds of their own, and have neither the mandate nor the political will to engage in serious talks. The Turks are left to hold the bag. We shall see how they proceed.


  12. Nuradin's artistry in employing rather oblique essay to indict President Hassan's year plus performance in office is quite interesting. For an accomplished author like Nuradin, one understands the approach. The suggested take-away from this article are equally slanted: either president Hassan is so incompetent to rise up to the challenges Somalia presents to his leadership, or he is knee deep in small minded politicking (driven by clan or ideology) that he is blinded to the consequences of his actions (or in actions in some cases).

     

    I consider myself an avid follower of Somali politics. In my observations of the president's style, it is his utter indecisiveness that pronounces his folly the most.

     

    A word of advise to brother OdeySomali: indicting Nuradin's essay on emotional grounds (his lack of sympathy or lack of appreciation of the situation the president is in) does indeed belittle your otherwise rationale objections to this New York piece. Nuradin may not share your assessment of the situation. If one reads his piece, one sees an eloquent disappointment in the president's performance---A disappointment many of us share.