Badme and Tukaraq: Who started this time?

[Old_Observer]

Somaliland forces fight with Puntland soldiers in Tukaraq

15th May 2018 John Snow

 

TUKARAQ, Somalia – Fierce gun fighting has broken out between Puntland and the break-away of Somaliland forces on Tuesday in disputed town of Tukaraq in Sool region, north of Somalia.

Tuesday’s clash flared up when heavily armed forces from Somaliland launched an ambush attack on bases manned by Puntland troops, a witness, Nune Mose Mohamed said.

Mohamed says heavy weaponries could be heard through the town.

“The clash has started earlier today. We heard heavy weaponries as both sides from Somaliland and Puntland are using heavy and slight weapons”, he said.

It is too early to say the exact figure of casualty resulted in the fighting.

In press conference, Puntland’s Minister of Information, Abdi Hersi Ali “Qarjab” said its troops had repulsed the attack, and warded off the surprise attack by the Somaliland armed forces.

Hersi claimed victory over the skirmish, accusing Somaliland administration of starting Tuesday’s fighting in north of Somalia.

Somaliland army chief, Nouh Osma’il said that its soldiers had pushed back of the Puntland forces, claiming victory over the clash.

He says the breakaway of Somaliland forces had captured several Puntland soldiers alive, adding that battle-wagons had also been taken away.

The latest clashes came days after UN’s envoy for Somalia, Michael Keating visited Hargeisa and Garowe towns and met with Somaliland and Puntland leaders to de-escalate the tension and avert bloodshed in Tukaraq town.

Mr. Keating urged Somaliland president Muse Bihi to withdraw its troops from Tukaraq, in a bid to return calmness in the town.

However, Puntland and Somaliland fought sporadic battles since 2002 over the control of disputed regions in northern Somalia.

With reporting by Abdirisak Mohamud Tuuryare from Mogadishu, Somalia

[Samafal]

Ducale way idin gaadeen miyaa? Bal waxaas day waxay ahayd inay idiin soo sheegaan maalinta, taariikhda iyo tiknikada ay idinku soo weerari doonaan. 

Bal hada wixii dhacay waa dhaceene reer Puntlandnoow gaadmada joojiya oo soo sheega markaad dagaal tagaysaan.

[galbeedi]

According a Puntland source , here is the chronology of how things happened.

Yesterday, a reconnaissance team from Puntland has clashed with a Somaliland garrison. Three soldiers from Puntland were killed, but no one knows the casualties from the Somaliland side. 

Then,  early this morning,  with drizzle of rain,  Puntland attacked the Somaliland positions. That clash with heavy weapons from both sides  took almost four hours while it was raining heavily. The Puntland offensive was repulsed and no territory changed hands. Everyone is in his original position. In the offensive Puntland lost 16 soldiers and the Somaliland casualty is unknown.

While the offensive from Puntland was winding down due to heavy rain, a Somaliland battalion led by a man by the name of colonel Ina Cambalash from the Sool region tried to go behind the Puntland line of defensive and attack from behind (Dhabar jabin sida Soomaalidu u taqaano). Unfortunately , he was spotted and both the Puntland offensive soldiers who went back to their original position and their bach up defense " gurmad" had  attacked Colonel Cambalaash.

That is were most of the heavy casualties from Somaliland took place. Latest news say that up to 60 soldiers from that group had died in that offensive. Almost half or 30 men who died are from Sool community. 

The front line is quite as of now.

Allah ha u Naxariisto intii dhimatay.

 

Most analysts say that this useless war may continue for the next few months for many political reasons.

First, C/weli Gaas is in re-election mood and everyone agrees that he might not win if doesn't take back Tukaraq. It was the Sool community who tipped the balance for him  last time which allowed him to defeat C/raxman Faroole.

Last time when our friend Mooge introduced the possible winning campaign of General Moragan, most of us were quick to dismiss about his chances. Yet, the Morgan campaiegn is growing big due to few reasons. Morgans is getting support from Sool and Sanaag region who like Morgan are pro-federal government. If he gets even half of Reer Bari , his chances are getting better.

Second , Morgan always had good relationship with Gedo community and Reer Diini. If Farmaajo endorses Morgan, the game could be over for Gaas. Do not buy the smear campaign of Morgan being warlord or former commander. If Ahmed Madoobe, xaaf, Shariif Hassan and Warlord Biixi can claim to be presidents, certainly Morgan has more credibility than all of them since he served a functioning government system.

 So, in order for Gaas to win the next Puntland election  he must take back Tukaraq. If he doesn't take back Tukaraq, get ready for president Morgan of Puntland.

Now let us see why war will continue from the Biixi side.

The United Nations envoy to Somalia Mikael Keating did talk to Biixi few months ago and asked him  not to escalate the war with Puntland. Two days ago, Mr.Keating asked again Biixi to come back to his original position, but due to pressure at home he could not agree. Withdrawal will be a defeat for Biixi at this stage.

Furthermore,  Internal tribal fracture of Somaliland among the Habro is getting worse. Institutions built by Cigaal and Rayaale for 15 years are crumbling. The Guurti who were the most important organ for tribal and conflict resolution had disappeared.There are tribal wars in Ceel Afweyn, yet not one single Guurti went there to resolve. Saleebaan Gaa, thel chairman of the Guurti, the man who supposed to lead for peace is spending his time at the microphone to lash out to the opposition party.

For Biixi, war is the only thing that might bring the Habro together again. Today Biixi sad that Puntland attacked us 23 times for the last few months.. Whether it is 15 May or 8 March --women's day--he keeps talking about war. Government employees and high school students are forced to march for 15 May which replaced 18 May for fear of nobody showing up during the Ramadan. For Those of us who are old enough , Somaliland resembles the  1989 of Somalia where trust for rulers went down to the toilet.

For these and many other reasons, this war between Puntland and Somaliland might continue for the next eight months of 2018.

If I were the leader of the Federal government, my army would be marching all the way south  to Kismaayo and west to Lowyacade to bring peace and national government.

Ah, Biciidkaan dili Doono.

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

25 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

According a Puntland source , here is the chronology of how things happened.

Yesterday, a reconnaissance team from Puntland has clashed with a Somaliland garrison. Three soldiers from Puntland were killed, but no one knows the casualties from the Somaliland side. 

Then,  early this morning,  with drizzle of rain,  Puntland attacked the Somaliland positions. That clash with heavy weapons from both sides  took almost four hours while it was raining heavily. The Puntland offensive was repulsed and no territory changed hands. Everyone is in his original position. In the offensive Puntland lost 16 soldiers and the Somaliland casualty is unknown.

While the offensive from Puntland was winding down due to heavy rain, a Somaliland battalion led by a man by the name of colonel Ina Cambalash from the Sool region tried to go behind the Puntland line of defensive and attack from behind (Dhabar jabin sida Soomaalidu u taqaano). Unfortunately , he was spotted and both the Puntland offensive soldiers who went back to their original position and their bach up defense " gurmad" had  attacked Colonel Cambalaash.

I think this is much better information. Maybe some middle level commander from Puntland knew how to start this war. Election or not Puntland has already moved its check points and is functioning, the threat of terrorism is also getting bigger not smaller from the likes of Qatar.

No benefit to Puntland to start war now.

 

BTW Morgan is not the blue flower you are trying to make anywhere even with all the change of person he has become. Why not Madoobe put him in his government if he so blue flower in Gedo. There is nothing more Madoobe needs more than complete peace and trust with Gedo.

[Ifiye]

I highly doubt these two clan enclaves  will go to a full scale war.  The IC and the Ethipians will not let their clan federalism posterboys misbehave badly.  At least not before the complete balkanisation of Somalia.  The Habro clans in the north and the pirates cannot even run primitive hospitals  in their respective  capitals let alone maintain and equip  clan militias to take part a long wars.

 

I think Mr Gaas is playing hardball with the  IC and their Ethiopian donkey.  He is showing them without the pirates loyal cooperation their Somalia project will not be successful.  He wants more money and more projects for his clan enclave.  He also wants the IC to support him politically when dealing with the rest of Somalia. Lets see the response of the IC and the Ethiopians. 

[Old_Observer]

20 hours ago, Ifiye said:

I highly doubt these two clan enclaves  will go to a full scale war.  The IC and the Ethipians will not let their clan federalism posterboys misbehave badly.  At least not before the complete balkanisation of Somalia.  The Habro clans in the north and the pirates cannot even run primitive hospitals  in their respective  capitals let alone maintain and equip  clan militias to take part a long wars.

 

I think Mr Gaas is playing hardball with the  IC and their Ethiopian donkey.  He is showing them without the pirates loyal cooperation their Somalia project will not be successful.  He wants more money and more projects for his clan enclave.  He also wants the IC to support him politically when dealing with the rest of Somalia. Lets see the response of the IC and the Ethiopians. 

My friend. This is a bit worn out record. Blaming or making Ethiopia a reason for everything Somalia faces. Has no currency even in Mogadishu let alone in the rest of Somalia.

Should you as a Somali want these Somali areas to fight, simply because Ethiopia does not want them to fight? That is not healthy.

6-7 million Somali do not want both these Somali territories to go to war. Period. Ethiopia cannot implement anything among Somalis that is not in accordance with Kililka. If nothing else, the Somali in Ethiopia can gurantee that.

And yes no war between them two and no war between Mogadishu and Hargeisa as well. That is the choice of kililka and that is the choice of Ethiopia and Djibouti.

 

[Samafal]

I was listening to Farawayne today and he was saying that the war has only just began. Galbeedi could be on something. I don't see an end to this war anytime soon. Biihi is very hard headed to withdraw his troops and Puntland will not allow an enemy to be stationed within 60 km of its capital. So I don't think the issue is Gaas extending his term or not. That is too simplistic.

[Old_Observer]

2 minutes ago, Samafal said:

I was listening to Farawayne today and he was saying that the war has only just began. Galbeedi could be on something. I don't see an end to this war anytime soon. Biihi is very hard headed to withdraw his troops and Puntland will not allow an enemy to be stationed within 60 km of its capital. So I don't think the issue is Gaas extending his term or not. That is too simplistic.

They will stop it as soon as they both realize are being used by others outside these regions.

Somaliland should realize that undermining Puntland in Somalia will work against Somaliland in the end. There is activities a foot to undermine Puntland's place and position in Somalia.