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Xaaji Xunjuf

Axmed Madoobe accuses the government of hypocrisy

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Dowladda federaalka Soomaaliya oo laba-wejiilanimo lagu eedeeyay (Dhegayso)

on January 22, 2013

 

Maalintii shalay shir ay isugu yimaadeen golaha wasiirada dowladda federaalka ah ee Soomaaliya ayaa lagu sheegay in wasaaradda arrimaha guduhu u samayneyso maamulo gobolada laga saarey al-Shabab, qorshahaas oo loo xil saaey Wasaaradda Arrimaha Gudaha.

 

Haddaba waxaa maanta shir-saxaafadeed ku qabtey magaalada Kismaayo Guddoomiyaha Guddiga kumeelgarka ah ee maamulka Jubbooyinka Shiikh Axmed Madoobe. Guddoomiyaha Guddiga Kumeelgaarka ah ayaa ugu horreyn shirkii saxaafadeed uga hadley xaaladda amni ee jubbooyinku halka ay marayso.

 

Axmed Madoobe oo ka hadlaya hadalka dhawaan ka soo yeeray dowladda ee ah in ay maamulo kumeelgaar ah u samaynayaan Gobolada ayaa sheegay in loo baahan yahay in aan dib loogu laaban 21 sano ee hore wixii lagu soo baaba’ay, waxaa la doonayaa wax ka beddalan wixii hore, yaan dadka dib loogu celin taariikhdii xumeyd, dadka rabitaankooda in la ixtiraamo weeyaan, waxaana dowladda ka codsanaynaa in ay shirka hoggaamkiyaan isla markaana dadka rabitaakoodu meel maro, “Qabanqaabadii maamul loogu samayn lahaa Jubbooyinku waa soo dhamaatey, dowladdana waxaa la gudboon in ay shirguddoomiso oo dadku qofkey rabaan ay doortaan” ayuu yiri Madoobe

 

Dhegayso waraysi Axmed Madoobe siiyey BBC

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If you read carefully above, you'll find the jist of the secret agreement just mid-wived by the international community between Ras Kamboni and Mogadishu.

 

Ahmed Madobe will be allowed to administer Kismayo for some months(the current agreement predicts 6 months) after which local elections will take place (administered by Hassan Sheikh's gov't). How smoothly this process occurs is anyone's guess, given the turbulent/contentious history of the region.

 

P.S. The larger event delaying immediate resolution for all involved (including the international community) is the far more significant results of the Kenyan elections...

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Ahmed madobe is a warlord and should be treated as a spoiler.he and his tol can not speak for other clans in the region,he can form a maamul goboleed for afmadow or dhoobleey for all i care,but insisting on imposing his will on the clans in the region will be not in the best interest of his beel in the long future.

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Mintid Farayar;911035 wrote:
If you read carefully above, you'll find the jist of the secret agreement just mid-wived by the international community between Ras Kamboni and Mogadishu.

 

Ahmed Madobe will be allowed to administer Kismayo for some months(the current agreement predicts 6 months) after which local elections will take place (administered by Hassan Sheikh's gov't). How smoothly this process occurs is anyone's guess, given the turbulent/contentious history of the region.

 

P.S. The larger event delaying immediate resolution for all involved (including the international community) is the far more significant results of the Kenyan elections...

 

I think thats close to the truth Axmed was about to visit Mogadisho i think though something changed and the admin in Mogadishu wanted to change the initial plan. like when he finished his term six months the interior ministery will establish a state in kismayo.

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Eng.Cadde;911036 wrote:
Ahmed madobe is a warlord and should be treated as a spoiler.he and his tol can not speak for other clans in the region,he can form a maamul goboleed for afmadow or dhoobleey for all i care,but insisting on imposing his will on the clans in the region will be not in the best interest of his beel in the long future.

I understand your point but he does hold some significant cards when negotiating with the Mogadishu gov't, i.e. the full support of the Kenyan gov't! Hence, why he is allowed to export and collect taxes from charcoal (since the capture of Kismayo).

 

Have patience, those cards will be less valuable after the Kenyan election passes...

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Mintid Farayar;911041 wrote:
I understand your point but he does hold some significant cards when negotiating with the Mogadishu gov't, i.e. the full support of the Kenyan gov't! Hence, why he is allowed to export and collect taxes from charcoal (since the capture of Kismayo).

 

Have patience, those cards will be less valuable after the Kenyan election passes...

The Kenyan elections aren't going to change much because if Raila Odinga wins, he is part of the current coalition government as the Prime Minister and will continue the same way.

 

If Uhuru Kenyatta wins, he will follow in Kibaki's footsteps since he is largely seen as a Kibaki project anyway and was crucial in Kibaki's win in 2007 by stepping down in Kibaki;s favour.

 

So don't count on a Kenya policy change.

 

The only time that something will happen - a wild card - is if Uhuru wins and reer galbeedka turn off the money taps that is sustaining KDF becuase reer galbeed have made it clear they don;t want to work with the man because of the charges facing him and Willian Ruto, his running mate, at the ICC.

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Xaaji Xunjuf;911071 wrote:
Uhuru kenyatta will win and Odinga will lose again

I doubt that. a more likely scenario is no clear winner in Round 1 and Kenya goes to Round 2. No doubt in anyone's mind that Raila will win clean in a a Round 2.

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QansaxMeygaag;911068 wrote:
The Kenyan elections aren't going to change much because if Raila Odinga wins, he is part of the current coalition government as the Prime Minister and will continue the same way.

 

If Uhuru Kenyatta wins, he will follow in Kibaki's footsteps since he is largely seen as a Kibaki project anyway and was crucial in Kibaki's win in 2007 by stepping down in Kibaki;s favour.

 

So don't count on a Kenya policy change.

 

The only time that will happen is if Uhuru wins and reer galbeedka turn off the money taps that is sustaining KDF becuase reer galbeed have made it clear they don;t want to work with the main because of the charges facing him and Willian Ruto, his running mate, at the ICC.

My reference was not to any expected changes in Kenyan philosophies after the elections, but rather in reference to Western reluctance to pressure the Kenyan gov't to abandon Madobe at this delicate time for Kenya. For you see, the Jubba operation was the first external power projection by the Kenyan military and state since independence. This policy has both its supporters and detractors within the Kenyan power elite. Post-election is when pressure will be applied on the Kenyans regarding their Jubba initiative.

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Oodweyne   

Mintid,

 

Agree, the Jubba issue is a passing fad. Which means, once the election in Kenya is over, the EU/US (who work in tandem in this issue) will gently gently applied pressure to Kenya in-order allow Mugadishu to "swallow" the region with the consent of the people. This means, the likes of Mr Madobe has a shelf-life that is exceedingly running towards it's expiry date.

 

But, still. the clans in that part of Somalia will call the "political shots" in that region. They will just have to call the shots from Mugadishu, instead of doing it from Nairobi as they are currently disposed of to do so.

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somalee   

I don't know what's so difficult in this. If Somalia is divided along clan lines and it is, then there's no doubt as to whom Kismayo belongs to. An individual's say counts for nothing much here as long as Kismayo's fate ultimately falls in the hands of her rightful owners. My two cents.

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Oodweyne,

 

The issue of Kismayo goes far beyond Madoobe or any one individual. President Hassan has come to appreciate the sensitivity surrounding this issue. The constitution will serve the final arbiter to settle the relationship between Kismayo and Mogadishu.

 

Think of it this way: Kismayo will for sometime serve the political center for those whom you term as 'the defeated lot' . Hassan knows that reality and will in the end accept it as such. This talk of Mogadishu administering Kismayo is nonsense and will not advance any Somali agenda.

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xiinow the interior ministry has been given the legitimicy to establish federal states what is your opinion on this? ma sheeko HAG baa sida ay sheegayaan wararka kala duwan ee naga so gaarayo daafaha aduunka? ( I should be a journalist ma is tiri LOOL)

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Oba,

 

The interior ministry has constitutional responsibility to coordinate the formation of federal states, clarify the relationship between the federal government and federal states and recomend administrative structures for Somali regions unable to form federal states.

 

There is nothing new there. It is something to be welcomed.

 

If one thinks this announcement will change anything in the political equation that cleverly set up in Kismayo one is clearly in a day dream.

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