Why Is Puntland And Somaliland Stable Yet The South Is A Chaos?

[Cowke]

Ok People, I know alot of people can see this issue that the south is warzone yet the north-east and north-west is peaceful.

 

Ok firstly when I look at the south I don't lump it all together because most of the south is peaceful when you hit the ground the only place where there is constant warfare is mogadishu. It's not happening in kismayo/baidoa/beletweyn etc. Sure their may be the odd skermish here and there but that's not what I deem a crisis.

 

So why is hamar the magnet field for warfare? some say it's the capital and therefore everyone wants to take over it an establish themselves as the ruler of somalia, whilst others say it's because of the local clan in hamar not reaching a consensus and sorting out some sort of power-sharing formula between the usc bloc. Other's say it's historical problem and goes back to the colonial days when italy ruled the south and used to isolate clan-elders from influence and thats why today the south the clan elders have near to zero power or influence and can not be used for conflict resolution.

 

Some say it's foreign interference that is causing the problems in somalia which is definitely true but as far as im concerned those foreigners didn't just happen to take advantage of somalis but it is somalis who called them so they can use them in their advantage over other clans/resources/politics in somalia.

 

Some say that their is huge internal division within the usc bloc where other clans in somalia are taking advantage of this and putting the usc head to head destruction. Some say the ssdf bloc is using the ali mahdi vehicle to destroy other usc clans most notably (dahir aways/qanyare). Some say the rra folks are trying to get their revenge for the 1992 starvation that occured in baidoa and want to avenge the same back on the usc bloc and using the qanyare bloc to destroy the usc within themselves.

 

Then you have the mix of godane and fuad shangole. Now these guys dont necessarily have power but have been appointed into important positions for political reasons as far as im concerned. I think the shabab block after securing hamar want to use fuad shangole card in order to get supporters inside puntland whilst using godane to get the snm folks on-board.

 

So what you guys think is causing the mess in hamar? Plz don't say it's foreigners because the question will be who invited those foreigns and we all know who did. Please don't say Historical reasons because italy colonized all the way from ras-casayr till jubbayoinka and puntland manages to use clan elders very effectively in securing the peace in our region. But their was less influence of italy in the north-east which can probably explain that. But the odeyo are used strongly in jubba and gedo and remain big reason why their is peace in that regions.

 

So I find the historical and colonial idea a bit hard to swallow why hamar is so stuffed up.

 

What we do know their is alot of clan hatred and alot of power hungury ppl who want to secure positions of power and the power struggle is happening in hamar and there are alot of players all with different political positions.

 

There is the business community/ulama/intellectuals who are also supporting whoever they view as in their interest.

 

But since 1991 till today puntland has been relatively stable and peaceful and growing. This can be seen from the simple fact that ppl come there to seek refuge and work from other parts of somalia and even africa. So we must be doing something right because honestly dont see puntlanders going to dhusomareeb

 

As for Somaliland they have also been relatively peaceful but that can be attributed to alot of things. They are surrounded by peaceful neighbours. Djibouti on 1 side and Puntland on the other side plus ethiopia on another side.

 

Puntland doesn't have any expansion plans of taking hargeisa whilst hargeisa has no expansion plans to bosaso. Plus jabuti is not on expansion plus somaliland doesnt to expand there either. Same applies with ethiopia.

 

Somaliland peace is not just something I can attribute to their people even though their people did do a great part in building the peace but lets be honest they dont have much of threat on any side to their existence nothing like puntland with maniacs in baraxley and dhusomareeb just a stone throw away who are always thinking about expansionism.

 

Plus somaliland staying out of hamar affairs has also reduced usc seeking revenge against them where-as puntland is very much involved in hamar as prime minister and also shabab side fuad shangole.

 

I think that 2008 bombing of hargeisa has alot to do with the more fara-gelin they started doing at an (un-official) level with godane and such.

 

So what you guys think has made hamar such a hellhole? what can be done to seriously reach a long lasting peace? We cant just leave hamar to their own devices we tried that from 1995 after UN left and hamar was in their hands but they sat there since 2000 till abdiqasim came along and that guy was just president on paper and couldnt even enter the country lol.

 

Anyways Lets be realistic. What can solve hamar? leaving them on their own has been tried since 1995-2004 and what has it produced? nothing. Abdullahi yusuf came and ruled for 5 years and controlled pretty much the whole country and their was hope but they rejected him solely based on clan reasons yet they say "they are wadani" ?

 

Now we got this Sharif guy and he is just as pathetic as abdiqasim except at least he is in the capital city but in very small precinct

 

So what can we do if sharif can even pull his own sub sub clan? because i doubt we will be able to unless through sheer force.

 

What you all think of the usc numbers today? I am suspicious. I don't think there is many of them today or else why would they use kids and derbi jiif kids as soldier base? why not use their own manpower? ma dadki ba yaraday after 20 year war? wa sucale kale taa.

 

Please contribute your opinions in scholary way because what can solve hamar. Anigu waxan tagan ahay weli "guriga taliya anigu gurigeyga baan u talineya iyo wixi qaranka naga dhexayso waan ka wada hadleyna at federal level" lakin kow waxaa muhim ah inad haysatid mamul iyo nabad at your regions before we talk about qaran stuff. Taas baan tagan ahay anigu.

 

Shabab solution is using islam which is good in a way and can help bring peace to the south by using FEAR but lets be honest will the international community accept such a system to be established in Somalia? you think they will just sit by while seeing another taliban state form when they just destroyed one in afghanistan?

 

They wil take strong measures against somalis if shabab establish themselves.

 

Hawala sanactions

Port Black Listing

Diplomatic ties cut

Foreign Invasion

 

Those above are all possible options for the international community to use against a shabab led somalia if it becomes true and none of that is in the interest of the average abdi in somalia is it?

 

Not to mention the fact that somalis deep down don't even like shabab but only live under them through fear.

 

So I possibly can't see shabab as solution to somalia it may bring peace to us but no progress and will infact put us in harms way against the world since they have expansionist plans and all sort of madness.

 

Separatism is another solution posed by the snm clan which is works excellent for 1 clan but ignores totally everybody else in somalia and unfortunately xalka somalia hal qabil dean hargeisa iyo burco ma ahan. It's not viable option to solve somalia infact if you look at history using colonial policies in africa was disaster to begin with to re-implement such a mistake is just something a crazy pipesmoking qowdhan will come to the table with.

 

Seccessionism solves 1 clan issues but not all the stakeholders if you get what I mean. Plus their is also foreign players who also don't want to see two somalia's for their own reasons.

 

So zero external acceptance and 1 clan internal support just doesn't seem like it will ever cut the mustard.

 

Just look at the 18 regions of somalia and only two states want seccession. waqoyi galbeed and awdal. I say awdal hesistantly because I believe they are simply coerced into expecting this for their mere survival sakes.

 

2 out 18 states? 80% majority want unity. 20% doesnt? coupled with zero internatioanal support for two somalia means the pipe smoking qowdhan needs to re-assess his politics.

 

This is why I am such verment supporter of federalism not because of tribal reasons but because run ahanti we have crazy brother in hamar and pipesmoking brother in hargeisa with two wild political positions that is so far away from reality that I hold onto federalism with my dear hand and say "XALKA SOMALIA WA FEDERAL"

 

Federal is supported by lets check? it has internal support from puntland/galmudug/tfg. More new mamuls are being created as we speak such as banadirland/hiiranland/jubbaland.

 

It is also internationally accepted by the world and recognized as the solution to solve somalia. It's building block method.

 

So international acceptance. plus lets check how many regions want it.

 

bari

mudug

sool

sanaag

mudug

tfg

 

The other regions expected to be onboard are

hiiran

banadir

jubba

bay

 

The regions vehemently against it

galgudud

waqoyi galbeed

 

 

That's why I support it, we are nearly there guys why ruin it? and it's fair system hadi dhabta laysku sheego.

[Chief_Aaqil]

Originally posted by Cowke:

So what you guys think is causing the mess in hamar? Plz don't say it's foreigners because the question will be who invited those foreigns and we all know who did. Please don't say Historical reasons because italy colonized all the way from ras-casayr till jubbayoinka and puntland manages to use clan elders very effectively in securing the peace in our region. But their was less influence of italy in the north-east which can probably explain that. But the odeyo are used strongly in jubba and gedo and remain big reason why their is peace in that regions.

 

So I find the historical and colonial idea a bit hard to swallow why hamar is so stuffed up.

 

What we do know their is alot of clan hatred and alot of power hungury ppl who want to secure positions of power and the power struggle is happening in hamar and there are alot of players all with different political positions.

Cowke, I think Hamar needs more people like you and more civilised people from Puntland and Somaliland. Therefore Xamar should be divided according to 4.5. And each tribe gets it own part of the City to secure and govern, much like Berlin was divided in 4 sections by the allied forces. People dont need to move, but they have to accept the law of the new rulers.

[Chief_Aaqil]

Originally posted by Cowke:

Puntland doesn't have any expansion plans of taking hargeisa whilst hargeisa has no expansion plans to bosaso. Plus jabuti is not on expansion plus somaliland doesnt to expand there either. Same applies with ethiopia.

Why do u assume Somaliland has no expansion plans? Havent they taken over Sool including Las Anod? Havent they surounded Buhoodle?

Havent they penetrated themselves to the east border of Sanaag? Their businessmen dominate a great portion of the Bosasso Economy. And who says they havent funded Atam, so they can get control of Bosasso. Their military is only 80km from Bosasso and like 20 km from Garowe. It doesnt take a genius to calculate where they are heading to.

[Jacaylbaro]

Originally posted by Chief_Aaqil:

quote:Originally posted by Cowke:

Puntland doesn't have any expansion plans of taking hargeisa whilst hargeisa has no expansion plans to bosaso. Plus jabuti is not on expansion plus somaliland doesnt to expand there either. Same applies with ethiopia.

Why do u assume Somaliland has no expansion plans? Havent they taken over Sool including Las Anod? Havent they surounded Buhoodle?

Havent they penetrated themselves to the east border of Sanaag? Their businessmen dominate a great portion of the Bosasso Economy. And who says they havent funded Atam, so they can get control of Bosasso. Their military is only 80km from Bosasso and like 20 km from Garowe. It doesnt take a genius to calculate where they are heading to.

Again ................ this is the infamous caaqil caught red-handed ,,

[Chief_Aaqil]

Originally posted by Cowke:

Abdullahi yusuf came and ruled for 5 years and controlled pretty much the whole country and their was hope but they rejected him solely based on clan reasons yet they say "they are wadani" ?

 

Now we got this Sharif guy and he is just as pathetic as abdiqasim except at least he is in the capital city but in very small precinct

 

So what can we do if sharif can even pull his own sub sub clan? because i doubt we will be able to unless through sheer force.

 

What you all think of the usc numbers today? I am suspicious. I don't think there is many of them today or else why would they use kids and derbi jiif kids as soldier base? why not use their own manpower? ma dadki ba yaraday after 20 year war? wa sucale kale taa.

 

Please contribute your opinions in scholary way because what can solve hamar. Anigu waxan tagan ahay weli "guriga taliya anigu gurigeyga baan u talineya iyo wixi qaranka naga dhexayso waan ka wada hadleyna at federal level" lakin kow waxaa muhim ah inad haysatid mamul iyo nabad at your regions before we talk about qaran stuff. Taas baan tagan ahay anigu.

 

Cowke, let me ask you something. Do you think Somalia is one house and all the regions are rooms in that house? Or does Somalia consist of diffrent houses who are neighbours?

[Chief_Aaqil]

Originally posted by Jacaylbaro:

quote:Originally posted by Chief_Aaqil:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Cowke:

Puntland doesn't have any expansion plans of taking hargeisa whilst hargeisa has no expansion plans to bosaso. Plus jabuti is not on expansion plus somaliland doesnt to expand there either. Same applies with ethiopia.

Why do u assume Somaliland has no expansion plans? Havent they taken over Sool including Las Anod? Havent they surounded Buhoodle?

Havent they penetrated themselves to the east border of Sanaag? Their businessmen dominate a great portion of the Bosasso Economy. And who says they havent funded Atam, so they can get control of Bosasso. Their military is only 80km from Bosasso and like 20 km from Garowe. It doesnt take a genius to calculate where they are heading to.

Again ................ this is the infamous caaqil caught red-handed ,,

I only stated facts. Cowke says Somaliland has no expansion plans, yet they have taken over 3 Puntland regions and who says it will stay with 3 regions? those are facts.

[Chief_Aaqil]

Originally posted by Cowke:

Just look at the 18 regions of somalia and only two states want seccession. waqoyi galbeed and awdal. I say awdal hesistantly because I believe they are simply coerced into expecting this for their mere survival sakes.

 

2 out 18 states? 80% majority want unity. 20% doesnt? coupled with zero internatioanal support for two somalia means the pipe smoking qowdhan needs to re-assess his politics.

 

This is why I am such verment supporter of federalism not because of tribal reasons but because run ahanti we have crazy brother in hamar and pipesmoking brother in hargeisa with two wild political positions that is so far away from reality that I hold onto federalism with my dear hand and say "XALKA SOMALIA WA FEDERAL"

 

Federal is supported by lets check? it has internal support from puntland/galmudug/tfg. More new mamuls are being created as we speak such as banadirland/hiiranland/jubbaland.

 

It is also internationally accepted by the world and recognized as the solution to solve somalia. It's building block method.

 

So international acceptance. plus lets check how many regions want it.

 

bari

mudug

sool

sanaag

mudug

tfg

 

The other regions expected to be onboard are

hiiran

banadir

jubba

bay

 

The regions vehemently against it

galgudud

waqoyi galbeed

 

 

That's why I support it, we are nearly there guys why ruin it? and it's fair system hadi dhabta laysku sheego.

First of all you forget Awdal, Toghdeer, Bakool, Gedo and the 2 Shabelle regions. And even your own region of Nugaal? Then you counted mudug twice and tfg is not a region.

 

Cowke, I wonder if you are from Somalia? I think you could be a confused sijui, who really doesnt know anything and has learned the map of Somalia from a old and torn apart schoolbook. Or you father hasnt teached you well. Cause if you were 10 and this was an exam for the Intermediate, then you would have failed.

[Cowke]

Chief 18 years of war and no answer in sight is very disturbing. 1 clan can't solve somalia I can tell you that much. My clan can help out when it comes to clans that we don't have any beef or historical issues with.

 

Clans like rra/ali mahdi folks/hiiran folks etc. But we just can't seem to get across to people that we do have historical beef with such as the dahir aways folks and that is where other neutral clans or even allied clans such as the snm can step in and talk to these people and calm them down.

 

If every clan did their bit in somalia we wouldn't be stuck in such a pothole. The huge problem I see is that when another clan becomes president in somalia most clans stop cooperating with that president and the cycle never ends. It's kind of like "if you dont respect my presidential term why will i respect your presidential term when it's your time to rule"

 

This endless cycle just continues and continues and never ends. My solution would be to hold huge meeting again but a big meeting. Allocate a quota of how many politicians/waxgarads/ulama/ganacsato each clan can send. Make sure their is criteria on assessing the candidates that are brought to the conference. They need to be educated/well respected among their clan/well respected by wider somali community/ and other criterias befor even sitting down at the negiotation table.

 

This will guarantee that each clan brings decent candidates to talk rather then filth.

 

Once that is done. Talk about how future government is to be shared between the people. I suggest sharing it 4.5 untill we get rid off the enemy(shabab) and once regional administration are established across each region allocate a quota to each region based on fairness. Don't give a region anything less then they warrant nor give them more then anythng they merit.

 

Once that is done. Share posts based on regional allocations. Stay in this system for at least 5 years untill the people have some of their sanity back before transitionining into federal democratic somalia. Once transferring to democratic nation we can have federal parties at federal level and regional parties at the regional level.

 

Regional parties will strictly play within their own region. Deal with mainly social/education/health/job/security creation and other developmental/security concerns of their region.

 

Federal parties will play within their own sphere inside the capital.

 

Their needs to be pact signing between all the regional administrations that if "one region" commits treason or is not looking for the national peace of the nation we must all attack them as nation no excuses for anyone.

 

Shabab can be easily defeated if all somalis united and form national liberation movement to expell al-qaeda from somalia. Puntland Somaliland Hamar Kismayo all combing their forces to chase away the little dirt bag shabab.

 

Once shabab is gone the implementation phase will start and reconstruction of our political and national systems.

 

I also suggest alot of thing be carefully decided. Never allow govt to manage land because this will cause great conflict in the near future. Leave land-management to elders. This will keep the reer miyis from killing each other because say "if my clan becomes president of somalia" and gives me nice bloc land in baidoa just cause im his cousin this will lead to injustice and we all know what injustice creates= civil chaos.

 

To keep corruption out. Take note of all bank balances and asset ownership of every politician that steps into office. When they get paid make sure its archived under their name so towards the end of the term you will know how much money they made and if they have something ridiculously above the estimated bank balance or assets they acquired whilst in office take him before court for prosecution.

 

I guarantee that sort of system will lessen corruption in office and make majority of politicians be dacad for the nation.

 

Power-sharing will always be one of the tenious issues however I am certain everyone will not mind so much if their not president in hamar everytime because they can be leader. in their own region when hamar refuses them to lead the nation.

 

This will also guarantee better competition between the states and competition guarantees excellence. I like having competition with somaliland over hospitals and and investments and stuff why? because the winners at the end of the day are the locals.

 

I wish to enjoy that same sort of competition with all other region in somalia but their isnt other regions in somalia to enjoy that with now.

 

Thats just a few of my suggestions but somalia problems are not that complicated it just doesnt have the right stakeholders in place.

[NASSIR]

Lool@pipesmoking Qawdhan. Cawke appears to be honest in his questions but he is so tendentious and hillarious.

 

 

Xamar needs a big AU force and an inclusive and transparent government. I think this time with IGAD and AU's serious stance, the radical al-Shabaab will be in the trashpin of Somalia's history.

[Oz]

oh no, hold on, i gotta take a crap.

[ANTARA]

^^

 

If Abdillahi yusuf who is from Puntland hadn't invaded Moqadishu with help from Ethiopia it could have been peaceful now.

 

And if Godane who is from S/land didn't start his aimless war, Moqadishu could have been peaceful today.

[Chief_Aaqil]

Originally posted by ANTARA:

^^

 

If Abdillahi yusuf who is from Puntland hadn't invaded Moqadishu with help from Ethiopia it could have been peaceful now.

 

And if Godane who is from S/land didn't start his aimless war, Moqadishu could have been peaceful today.

If Khat wasnt made illegal in 1980's Somalia would be a diffrent country today and Moqadishu would be like an Italian Riviera city at the indian ocean.

[Captain_Mike20]

Somalia.....saxib Way ku Daysay...iska ilow ...

 

inalu rajicun ....Somalia saxib way dimatay..its like debating a dead man cause of death 20 years ago.

 

The only question you should be examining is were can we go from here?

 

In business..when someone has something you need desperately you negotiate, many thinkers argue that Somalilands institutions, Caqils and intellectuals have the ability and the location to create a long lasting credible peace in Somalia along with the military capability of inforcing. Ok..we identified something you need as Somalia..so negotiate?

 

For this what are you willing to offer..???

 

- forget federalism ...bull

- Forget confederation ... bull

- Forget 4.5 ....bull

 

What are you willing to give, that would make me sign an agreement with you?