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Abtigiis

The Tragedy Of the “Uncommons”: DECONSTRUCTING XINNFANIN’S INSIDIOUS ‘PACIFISM’

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Abtigiis   

The Tragedy Of the “Uncommons”: DECONSTRUCTING XINNFANIN’S INSIDIOUS ‘PACIFISM’

 

Garett Hardin’s path-breaking article the tragedy of the commons, that has since been adopted as the ABC of Natural Resource Economics for so long started off with this quotation published in Science Journal.

 

“At the end of a thoughtful article on the future of nuclear war, Wiesner and York concluded that: ‘Both sides in the arms race are…confronted by the dilemma of steadily increasing military powers and steadily decreasing national security’. It is our considered professional judgement that this dilemma has no technical solution. If the great powers continue to look for solutions in the area of science and technology only, the result will be to worsen the situation”.

 

Before I fetter my craving for divulging into the details of a subject I am passionate about and is so vivid in my mind from the days of my graduate studies so and so years back, allow me to make one more reference to my notes.

 

An instructor once classified the role of economists into “fixers (who make a living solving problems), Bean-Counters (making a living doing calculating costs, comparing them with prices and the values offered to buyers) and Philosophers (who like to play with ideas and only occasionally enter the fray with a suggested answers to a problem.”

 

To me, fixers are those who took to the heart that it is mathematically impossible to maximize for two (or more) variables at the same time. Something that was clearly stated by Von Neumann and Morgenstern, but also implicit in the theory of partial differential equations, dating back at least to D’Alembert (1717-83).

 

That I dug deep into the books of the “dismal” science in search of an answer to Xinnfanin’s mysterious belief in ‘peace-activism’ in the current state of Somalia, is neither to sicken the appetite of the unusually impatient Somali readership nor to display grasp of a subject matter of a not-so-amusing field of study. It is because Xinnfanin’s seemingly innocuous ‘misconstructions’ and explanations, and my heated arguments with him over a gnawingly subjective and speculative matter have reached to a point where virtually all of the references I made here are being justified, I hope, of being rightfully been extracted out of retirement.

 

One, there is no technical solution that can return peace to Somalia, if Xinnfanin continues to beseech for ‘peace’ from the very hands of the people who believe its very birth will herald their demise. The very fatalistic Tigre’s who in primitive reverence to biblical prophesies believe the ‘ultimate conqueror of their empire will rise from the East’. So, if Xinn believes peace will be made by an arrangement between Somali’s warring factions (assuming it is so for the sake of argument), when the big factor of instability is either not satisfied with the residue of the form and soul of its ‘eggs’ in the subjugated peninsula, or when it hasn’t faced an internal compelling situation that warranted its withdrawal; then his call for ‘peace’ will be imparting from either a bamboozling lapse in judgement or a conscious conning and classic thuggery with the highest acne of sophistication. Much important is that peace cannot come by the grace of the aggressor, or by putting on blinders. On such issues, it is akin to the game of noughts and crosses. It can only be achieved if a radical meaning is given to the word ‘peace’, which herein might be reconstructed to mean ‘peace under occupation’, and ‘peace in indignity’.

 

It is clear, in keeping with the universally accepted conflict resolution principles of ‘give-and-take’, the chief protagonist to this conflict is not ready to give something in-return for something it says has triggered its blitzkrieg. For leaving Somalia is not a ‘give’, as Somalia wasn’t Ethiopian’s colony that it now decided to reward its ‘primitive’ subjects by granting them their ‘freedom’!! At will!!!

 

Two, going back to the quotations, it is quite evident that the man in discussion here is a Bean-counter (busy on the itineraries of reconciliation meetings and diplomatic correspondences) and a philosopher (who enters into the fray –right here at SOL with suggested answers to solutions). At least, in his role as the latter, Xinn would have already done pretty well in masking treason as ‘statesmanship’ and pacifism –historically much in vogue with those who actually make the most out of its absence- as ‘the only viable solution to come out of the ashes’. Selective referencing and citations of incongruent precedents fill with rapture the appetite of the appeasers, at it always was the case. Xinnfanin is not a fixer!

 

Third is the mathematical maximization duality problem. You cannot maximize for two variables at the same time. Xinn might still come back and argue maths has little to do with the intricacies of socio-political dynamic variables, and he might have a point there; but who said I should forgo the rigour of figures for the feeble hunch of a delusional demagogue with all the wrong concept of ‘peace and pacifism’.

 

Particularly, when the two variables to be maximized simultaneously in one equation are war and peace! The less intelligent pro-Yey parrots in SOL make more sense to me because they at least seem to have concurred with the fact that trying to solve that function is unattainable even with the added provisions of a Lagrangian multiplier. And hence has taken the safe route of promoting ‘dawlad-xuni (DX) dawlad la’aan (DL) bay dhaantaa’ disgusting myth to quench their clan vendettas against fellow Somali’s and the inherent ‘conscious acceptance of guilt in the necessary murder’ to borrow a line from Auden’s poem Spain.

 

Xinn is ever more becoming indistinguishable from the honorary alumni’s of the elastic category of Yey apologists.

 

I can confidently say that the antiquated aphorism about ‘DX being on a higher social welfare curve than DL’ is a disguise for disorder and looting; and presupposes that an ‘assumed anarchy’ of ‘dawlad-la’aan’ -in the spirit of the proponents of that slogan- is worse than an institutionalised tribalism and vengeance in the shirt of ‘nadaam and dawladnimo’ is something my conscience has refused to accept. I can elaborate, but not now.

 

In the interest of brevity, let me stop here for now. But with a parting shot: it is my modest judgement (not the modesty Chinua Achebe talked about when he said ‘what is modesty but an inverted pride’) that if Xinn continues to look solutions in a flaccid continuum of peace, peace and peace (and for vanity and morality alone peace looked the better option to him), and if he thinks craven submissiveness will yield good harvests of that noble ideal, then our debate has no TECHNICAL SOLUTION TOO. NOT even at academic level!

 

It is the latest entry into the class of ‘no technical solution problems’, and it emanates from the uncommon co-existence in the mind of Xinn of obsession with ‘peace’ at all cost, unwillingness to unequivocally tell ‘the war-lovers’ in their entirety [if that is what is in the heart] to go hang, pulling the wool over own eyes in the face of atrocities on the one hand; and declared nationalism, dedication to diin & dalka, and determination to hold the sanctity of a unified Somali nation on the other hand.

 

But, that won’t diminish my love for the man. He is truly erudite and on top of issues when it doesn’t involve YEY’s grand plan! And he, at no point, seemed like a sick soul nursing impalpable grudge against any people or group- quite unlike General Duke and few other trumpeters of ‘clan pride and hegemony’. If only that fleeting infatuation with a certain ‘incognito’ masquerading as a leader evaporates overnight! If only the misconstructions of the concept of peace gives us a sound break!

 

Tu! Tu! Bismillahi raxmaani raxiin! Ka baxa Xinn! Wakaa aan kugu tufay awoow e ilaahay ha kaa saaro shayaadiinta ku dhexqaaday!!!

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Fabregas   

The personalized debates( a new trend) we've had on SOL have been boring and counter productive, thus far. I highly doubt this one will be any different, as Abtigis and Xiin will compromise or give little on their held stances. A bit like bashings heads!

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Fabregas   

The personalized debates( a new trend) we've had on SOL have been boring and counter productive, thus far. I highly doubt this one will be any different, as Abtigis and Xiin will compromise or give little on their held stances. A bit like bashings heads!

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^It's more anout debunking the other person's line of reasoning than it's actually to find common ground for reasonable palatable agreement. waa teeda hadee san socon midkale ma soconayso.

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^It's more anout debunking the other person's line of reasoning than it's actually to find common ground for reasonable palatable agreement. waa teeda hadee san socon midkale ma soconayso.

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A & T, thanks for the effort adeer. It has been a good read! But, and with all seriousness, I am not interested in defending an online persona called xiinfaniin!

 

What I am interested in are good ideas! Do you have any yaa A & T? What do you reckon Somalis should do to resolve their 18-year old civil war? What is the heart of Somali civil war (quite elementary I know)? What do you propose to tackle it? Somalis cannot choose their neighbors, and Ethiopia is one of the neighbors Somalis has to deal with. Today that neighbor of ours has the upper hand. Most Somali affairs fall within the sphere of her influence. Somalia is right where Ethiopia wanted it to be! How do you want to address that reality? Anger and emotions aside, what else do you have to offer yaa A & T?

 

Commit Jabbuuti Agreement to the flames! Don’t maximize the peace variable, to use your analogy, but give a decent attempt to construct a plan that could maximize the other variable, the war variable! I am all ears adeer…

 

If you only excel in how to deconstruct (or give the impression of it) what other men constructed to better their situation, and have no ability to come up with better alternatives or lack the sagacity to acknowledge your own failure, however, so waxaagu tororog maahaa?

 

Ama talo keen ahow, ama talo raac ahow!

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A & T, thanks for the effort adeer. It has been a good read! But, and with all seriousness, I am not interested in defending an online persona called xiinfaniin!

 

What I am interested in are good ideas! Do you have any yaa A & T? What do you reckon Somalis should do to resolve their 18-year old civil war? What is the heart of Somali civil war (quite elementary I know)? What do you propose to tackle it? Somalis cannot choose their neighbors, and Ethiopia is one of the neighbors Somalis has to deal with. Today that neighbor of ours has the upper hand. Most Somali affairs fall within the sphere of her influence. Somalia is right where Ethiopia wanted it to be! How do you want to address that reality? Anger and emotions aside, what else do you have to offer yaa A & T?

 

Commit Jabbuuti Agreement to the flames! Don’t maximize the peace variable, to use your analogy, but give a decent attempt to construct a plan that could maximize the other variable, the war variable! I am all ears adeer…

 

If you only excel in how to deconstruct (or give the impression of it) what other men constructed to better their situation, and have no ability to come up with better alternatives or lack the sagacity to acknowledge your own failure, however, so waxaagu tororog maahaa?

 

Ama talo keen ahow, ama talo raac ahow!

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Abtigiis   

I disagree with Che in that this is, if you don't take my line, then it is over. It isn't also about a DEBATE for the sake of it, as Brofossor Geljire concluded. Anyway, to answer adeer Xinn on two fundamental issues:

 

Let me start with where I think Xinn's biggest mistake lies. Not that I am intersted in fault-finding, but that it is so fundamental for the way we look at things.

 

XINN's myth of an Ethiopia with upperhand and strong is just that- a MYTH. That it occupies Somalia today is not a good enough demonstartion of its strength. Who can't occupy Somalia today? Zanzibar surely can. Ethiopia is WEAK. Mind how a small group of 'Alshabab's' are holding against it, and in only two years have moved from defensive to being offensive. Mind how ONLF is faring in that region with its ALL faliures. It has now started taking districts. This is just the tip of the iceberg. LAST WEEK, MELES Zenawi called all pseudo-regional 'presidents' at Addis Ababa Stadium for the sole purpose of handing them the ethiiopian National FLAG and ordering the Amharic national anthem to be played in all regions. What we see is a gradual centralisation of power and a reinvigoration of the "Ethiopian UNITY" slogans of the previous regimes. This is coming from a man who started as anti-Amhara and all their regalia. WHY? XINN? miyaad garan sababta!

 

It is because of the failures in Somalia, and the unpopular war which no one supported in Ethiopia. He is trying to realign himself to the "ultra-nationalists" who happen to be mostly Amhara's. It is a strategic retreat from the false pretence of empowering nationalities that were subjugated by "Amhara Chauvinism"- to borrow his own word. The man is confused! and is trying to clutch to all straws around.

 

Will the Amhara's accept him in his new role? a BIG NO! but not becuase they care about Somalia. He has done too much damage to their intersts and 'dignity'. So, he will fail here too.

 

Is this significant? absoultely. It shows the man is facing that maximisation dilemma. Will he go for Amhara's? or for the rest? None will support him whichever choice he makes. And opposition in Ethiopia is feeling the TPLF is vulnerable and 'defeatable' by military power. That is why EPPF (Ethiopian People's Patriotic Front) is raiding towns in the North. The OROMO's are the disappointemnt so far.

 

 

I am calling for the maximisation of WAR, and spending all intellectual, capital, labour and other resources to augment the struggle. For a short term goal and a longer vision:

 

Short Term:

 

- Kicking the occupying forces out of Somalia and saving us the ignominy of being "under occupation" by the poorest country in the face of the Earth. [ Timeline: 6 months, intensify the attacks, and widen the coverage of the areas hostile to the EThiopian army. good progress has been made last week]

 

- Once Ethiopa is out of Somalia, it is obvious Islamic groups will fill the gap. However, here is where your man Sheikh shariif and all the somali intellectuals can play their role to reign in the top 'gaas-dhagoolayaal' in the courts [who no more threatened by capture] should see the benefit of agreeing to a broad-based national Transitional governmnet that will organise elections within 6 months]

 

Long-term

 

Beat the Ethiopians by their own game: divide. no work is needed here, it is only to clandestinely work for the topplingof the Meles' regime by working with the Oromos, Amharas, ONLF and all opposition. Meles, if he sees he can't rule Ethiopia, will do the rest. I believe what Abdullahi Yusuf did to Somalia will pale into insignificiance to what MELES will do to Somalia.

Contrary to the notion, we Somali's are divided, there is no people as divided and angry on one another as Ethiopians.

 

A disintegrated Ethiopia [like Yugoslavia] will herald the birth of a UNITED SOMALIA, including NFD.

 

It is a risky scheme, it demands a lot of work, but very much achieveable within a DECADE. Haday raggeeedii hesho.

 

Xinn, Ethiopia is our neighbour, but 'you don't live like your neighbour wishes you to live'. If pecae is of interst to us, it has to be for them as well. This is when I take your "homogenous Ethiopia" assumption as valid.

 

Bulwer Lyton's famous line, " the pen is mightier than the Sword ", cheats lots of people. What they fail to quote is his qualifying line, "... ONLY UNDER PEOPLE ENTIRELY GREAT" . Are the Xabash's great? Assuming they aren't, the reverse should be true. " The SWORD IS MIGHTIER THAN THE PEN!!!!!!!!"

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Abtigiis   

I disagree with Che in that this is, if you don't take my line, then it is over. It isn't also about a DEBATE for the sake of it, as Brofossor Geljire concluded. Anyway, to answer adeer Xinn on two fundamental issues:

 

Let me start with where I think Xinn's biggest mistake lies. Not that I am intersted in fault-finding, but that it is so fundamental for the way we look at things.

 

XINN's myth of an Ethiopia with upperhand and strong is just that- a MYTH. That it occupies Somalia today is not a good enough demonstartion of its strength. Who can't occupy Somalia today? Zanzibar surely can. Ethiopia is WEAK. Mind how a small group of 'Alshabab's' are holding against it, and in only two years have moved from defensive to being offensive. Mind how ONLF is faring in that region with its ALL faliures. It has now started taking districts. This is just the tip of the iceberg. LAST WEEK, MELES Zenawi called all pseudo-regional 'presidents' at Addis Ababa Stadium for the sole purpose of handing them the ethiiopian National FLAG and ordering the Amharic national anthem to be played in all regions. What we see is a gradual centralisation of power and a reinvigoration of the "Ethiopian UNITY" slogans of the previous regimes. This is coming from a man who started as anti-Amhara and all their regalia. WHY? XINN? miyaad garan sababta!

 

It is because of the failures in Somalia, and the unpopular war which no one supported in Ethiopia. He is trying to realign himself to the "ultra-nationalists" who happen to be mostly Amhara's. It is a strategic retreat from the false pretence of empowering nationalities that were subjugated by "Amhara Chauvinism"- to borrow his own word. The man is confused! and is trying to clutch to all straws around.

 

Will the Amhara's accept him in his new role? a BIG NO! but not becuase they care about Somalia. He has done too much damage to their intersts and 'dignity'. So, he will fail here too.

 

Is this significant? absoultely. It shows the man is facing that maximisation dilemma. Will he go for Amhara's? or for the rest? None will support him whichever choice he makes. And opposition in Ethiopia is feeling the TPLF is vulnerable and 'defeatable' by military power. That is why EPPF (Ethiopian People's Patriotic Front) is raiding towns in the North. The OROMO's are the disappointemnt so far.

 

 

I am calling for the maximisation of WAR, and spending all intellectual, capital, labour and other resources to augment the struggle. For a short term goal and a longer vision:

 

Short Term:

 

- Kicking the occupying forces out of Somalia and saving us the ignominy of being "under occupation" by the poorest country in the face of the Earth. [ Timeline: 6 months, intensify the attacks, and widen the coverage of the areas hostile to the EThiopian army. good progress has been made last week]

 

- Once Ethiopa is out of Somalia, it is obvious Islamic groups will fill the gap. However, here is where your man Sheikh shariif and all the somali intellectuals can play their role to reign in the top 'gaas-dhagoolayaal' in the courts [who no more threatened by capture] should see the benefit of agreeing to a broad-based national Transitional governmnet that will organise elections within 6 months]

 

Long-term

 

Beat the Ethiopians by their own game: divide. no work is needed here, it is only to clandestinely work for the topplingof the Meles' regime by working with the Oromos, Amharas, ONLF and all opposition. Meles, if he sees he can't rule Ethiopia, will do the rest. I believe what Abdullahi Yusuf did to Somalia will pale into insignificiance to what MELES will do to Somalia.

Contrary to the notion, we Somali's are divided, there is no people as divided and angry on one another as Ethiopians.

 

A disintegrated Ethiopia [like Yugoslavia] will herald the birth of a UNITED SOMALIA, including NFD.

 

It is a risky scheme, it demands a lot of work, but very much achieveable within a DECADE. Haday raggeeedii hesho.

 

Xinn, Ethiopia is our neighbour, but 'you don't live like your neighbour wishes you to live'. If pecae is of interst to us, it has to be for them as well. This is when I take your "homogenous Ethiopia" assumption as valid.

 

Bulwer Lyton's famous line, " the pen is mightier than the Sword ", cheats lots of people. What they fail to quote is his qualifying line, "... ONLY UNDER PEOPLE ENTIRELY GREAT" . Are the Xabash's great? Assuming they aren't, the reverse should be true. " The SWORD IS MIGHTIER THAN THE PEN!!!!!!!!"

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A disintegrated Ethiopia [like Yugoslavia] will herald the birth of a UNITED SOMALIA, including NFD.

Stars might line up to ensure Ethiopia's Balkanization but bigger question here is, would the Somalis seize this opportunity considering how divided and suspicious we are of each other? We just can't wish our problems away. Even if the insurgency were to succeeded (Looks like they are winning), who's to ensure we won't revert back clan warfare or new military adventurism by the Al-Shabaab?

 

We need to realize among Somalis, they are things that can't settle through the barrel of the gun.

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A disintegrated Ethiopia [like Yugoslavia] will herald the birth of a UNITED SOMALIA, including NFD.

Stars might line up to ensure Ethiopia's Balkanization but bigger question here is, would the Somalis seize this opportunity considering how divided and suspicious we are of each other? We just can't wish our problems away. Even if the insurgency were to succeeded (Looks like they are winning), who's to ensure we won't revert back clan warfare or new military adventurism by the Al-Shabaab?

 

We need to realize among Somalis, they are things that can't settle through the barrel of the gun.

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Originally posted by Abtigiis & Tusbax:

 

Let me start with where I think Xinn's biggest mistake lies. Not that I am intersted in fault-finding, but that it is so fundamental for the way we look at things.

 

XINN's myth of an Ethiopia with upperhand and strong is just that- a MYTH. That it occupies Somalia today is not a good enough demonstartion of its strength. Who can't occupy Somalia today? Zanzibar surely can. Ethiopia is WEAK.

 

Yes Ethiopia is weak. Yes it sits on a avalanche of ethnic tensions. Yes it’s character as a state is fundamentally shaky. But Ethiopia, yaa hasty A & T, is a lot stronger than Somalia today. Unlike many nomads here in SOL, I don not speak of Ethiopia in imperial terms! She’s not an empire. She can’t occupy Somalia and subjugate Somalis. What it has done and continues to do however is to destabilize Somalia! On that score Ethiopia has done a superb job, and the divisions between Somalis only helps her to further that goal. Only stable Somalia can leverage inherent weaknesses of the Ethiopian state you listed there. Warring clans as we are today can hardly take advantages of Ethiopia’s weakness.

 

So lets not day dream adeer!

 

 

Originally posted by Abtigiis & Tusbax:

 

I am calling for the maximisation of WAR, and spending all intellectual, capital, labour and other resources to augment the struggle. For a short term goal and a longer vision:

 

Short Term:

 

- Kicking the occupying forces out of Somalia and saving us the ignominy of being "under occupation" by the poorest country in the face of the Earth. [ Timeline: 6 months, intensify the attacks, and widen the coverage of the areas hostile to the EThiopian army. good progress has been made last week]

 

- Once Ethiopa is out of Somalia, it is obvious Islamic groups will fill the gap. However, here is where your man Sheikh shariif and all the somali intellectuals can play their role to reign in the top 'gaas-dhagoolayaal' in the courts [who no more threatened by capture] should see the benefit of agreeing to a broad-based national Transitional governmnet that will organise elections within 6 months]

How do you kick the occupiers out? By continuing what we are doing today? Is that what you propose to kick the Ethiopians out? And do you think Ethiopia is the sole external factor that’s causing this mayhem in our land?

 

I expect more from you! I want you to come up a plan and strategy that takes all the factors into consideration. Suggesting the continuation of today’s violence only shows how scanty your merchandise is! I dropped the peace variable in the equation mind you. I did not argue that it’s a lot easier to maximize peace than war given our position today! At least maximize the opportunity I am giving you and be reasonable with your propositions saaxiib!

 

Give us a plan of war by which we can defeat Ethiopia, and revive our downed republic. If you don’t have that plan as it’s difficulty to imagine one given prevailing divisions within the Somali house, then grow some balls and embrace the peace plan!

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Originally posted by Abtigiis & Tusbax:

 

Let me start with where I think Xinn's biggest mistake lies. Not that I am intersted in fault-finding, but that it is so fundamental for the way we look at things.

 

XINN's myth of an Ethiopia with upperhand and strong is just that- a MYTH. That it occupies Somalia today is not a good enough demonstartion of its strength. Who can't occupy Somalia today? Zanzibar surely can. Ethiopia is WEAK.

 

Yes Ethiopia is weak. Yes it sits on a avalanche of ethnic tensions. Yes it’s character as a state is fundamentally shaky. But Ethiopia, yaa hasty A & T, is a lot stronger than Somalia today. Unlike many nomads here in SOL, I don not speak of Ethiopia in imperial terms! She’s not an empire. She can’t occupy Somalia and subjugate Somalis. What it has done and continues to do however is to destabilize Somalia! On that score Ethiopia has done a superb job, and the divisions between Somalis only helps her to further that goal. Only stable Somalia can leverage inherent weaknesses of the Ethiopian state you listed there. Warring clans as we are today can hardly take advantages of Ethiopia’s weakness.

 

So lets not day dream adeer!

 

 

Originally posted by Abtigiis & Tusbax:

 

I am calling for the maximisation of WAR, and spending all intellectual, capital, labour and other resources to augment the struggle. For a short term goal and a longer vision:

 

Short Term:

 

- Kicking the occupying forces out of Somalia and saving us the ignominy of being "under occupation" by the poorest country in the face of the Earth. [ Timeline: 6 months, intensify the attacks, and widen the coverage of the areas hostile to the EThiopian army. good progress has been made last week]

 

- Once Ethiopa is out of Somalia, it is obvious Islamic groups will fill the gap. However, here is where your man Sheikh shariif and all the somali intellectuals can play their role to reign in the top 'gaas-dhagoolayaal' in the courts [who no more threatened by capture] should see the benefit of agreeing to a broad-based national Transitional governmnet that will organise elections within 6 months]

How do you kick the occupiers out? By continuing what we are doing today? Is that what you propose to kick the Ethiopians out? And do you think Ethiopia is the sole external factor that’s causing this mayhem in our land?

 

I expect more from you! I want you to come up a plan and strategy that takes all the factors into consideration. Suggesting the continuation of today’s violence only shows how scanty your merchandise is! I dropped the peace variable in the equation mind you. I did not argue that it’s a lot easier to maximize peace than war given our position today! At least maximize the opportunity I am giving you and be reasonable with your propositions saaxiib!

 

Give us a plan of war by which we can defeat Ethiopia, and revive our downed republic. If you don’t have that plan as it’s difficulty to imagine one given prevailing divisions within the Somali house, then grow some balls and embrace the peace plan!

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