HSM and security team in Egypt

[baala xoofto]

By now we can all agree that HSM and Abiy Ahmed are no friends. Quiet a turn around from Farmaajo's days just few months ago. 

It is interesting that, while HSM was in Djibouti, the news came out that HSM wanted to visit Addis Abeba impromptu. News reports said that Abiy Ahmed declined. 

It is possible that Abiy already had information about the upcoming Egyptian tour. And possibly more. After all, Ethiopia and Farmaajo were very close and it is possible that Ethiopians may have bugged Villa Somalia's computers/networks and have access to a lot more information.

HSM's visit to Egypt is possibly a signal that he is pivoting Mogadishu towards Cairo's sphere of influence. It is a huge geopolitical shift. There are rumours that the Israelis may also be in Egypt meeting with HSM. 

In any case, It will very interesting to see what Turkey thinks of this new *Security* relationship between Egypt and Mogadishu and possibly with Israel. Edogan and El-sisi are regional rivals. 

[Qurac&qansax]

wa dowlad wada unuka ah....cadaalad iyo mahad salaad maxay ka qabanayaan, every trip

[baala xoofto]

50 minutes ago, Qurac&qansax said:

wa dowlad wada unuka ah....cadaalad iyo mahad salaad maxay ka qabanayaan, every trip

There is possibly HAG-politicians deal which was agreed while they were hauled up inside Jazeera Hotel. 

So, blame it on Farmaajo. 

Farmaajo posed an existential threat to HAG politicians. He even went so far as to refuse them to board on Air planes. They were excluded from the political roadmap and felt powerless in the face of the "existential" threat. 

In my opinion, a D-Block President is something that is not going to happen in a long time. The D-Block clans need to come to terms with that reality. 

Ahmed Madoobe is more or less check-mated. Kenya is no longer dependent on him and will get what it wants from Mogadishu instead. That means, Ahmed is exposed to many threats, the Gedo Boys/JVA Alliance and Alshabab among others. 

The safest place for him is to align himself with Villa Somalia. 

Addis Abeba will try to protect Lafta-Gareen in Baydhabo. But I think, he has lost faith with the locals. He was never their choice to start with. 

Galmudug is a wildcard. You never know what these want or against. They are the mad dogs of South Somalia. Probably will remain as that. 

Puntland is economically on its knees and politically is much more polarised than ever. The days when they projected a much larger political shadow over the South Somalia than they physically capable of, is long gone. Yes, they will play second-fiddle to Addis Abeba but not as much. After all, Addis Abeba itself is shaky and not standing on strong legs. 

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, baala xoofto said:

 

In my opinion, a D-Block President is something that is not going to happen in a long time. The D-Block clans need to come to terms with that reality. 

 

You sound very much like OOdweyne, who used say, samething, and used to even say, that his enemy D-block is finished. The day Farmaajo was chosen, he run away from this site.

You miss your analysis SL, you painted dark picture everywhere?  what you think is going to happen to SL? Things are very rosy?

[baala xoofto]

7 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

You sound very much like OOdweyne, who used say, samething, and used to even say, that his enemy D-block is finished. The day Farmaajo was chosen, he run away from this site.

You miss your analysis SL, you painted dark picture everywhere?  what you think is going to happen to SL? Things are very rosy?

This is my opinion.  Obviously I could be wrong, but from how things are going, I don't see HAG transferring power.

I mean, Farmaajo killed the idea of "State Building" process. That idea is dead, in my opinion. 

I am certain the HAG politicians discussed many things including how to make sure they are not in the same position again as during Farmaajo's days. 

[maakhiri1]

bro, there mayo not be a country after HSM, I am honest in my assessment, I am with dhagax TUUR.

so HSM can be HAG present , who cares!

[baala xoofto]

16 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

You miss your analysis SL, you painted dark picture everywhere?  what you think is going to happen to SL? Things are very rosy?

Somaliland decoupled itself from Somalia. We are not under any threat militarily, politically, diplomatically or economically. 

Farmaajo tried it, he even bend over for Abiy to try to hurt Somaliland, going to extent of becoming Abiy's luggage - in an attempt to come to Hargeisa. We know how that ended up. 

If anything, the "powers that be" will try to bring Mogadishu and Hargeisa in a talk. But Hargeisa is not going to entertain any more B.S.. We have history of broken agreements that will help Hargeisa's arguments. 

[baala xoofto]

19 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

bro, there mayo not be a country after HSM, I am honest in my assessment, I am with dhagax TUUR.

so HSM can be HAG present , who cares!

 

There was no country anyway, it was Qooto-Qooto "Fake it, till you make it" kind. But HSM/HAG will milk what is left of Somalia for as long as they can. Eventually, they may try to force militarily other regions. Basically Farmaajo's plan just now HAG on driving seat. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, maakhiri1 said:

bro, there mayo not be a country after HSM, I am honest in my assessment, I am with dhagax TUUR.

so HSM can be HAG present , who cares!

Somalia will be fine. Its progress is slow and painful.Let's not get into doomsday cycle.

[galbeedi]

He is definitely Oodweyne trolling us. The D block thing blew his cover.

[baala xoofto]

Galbeedi

Lets assume I was Oodweyne, now what does that change from my opinion? 

In this discussion forum, everyone is entitled to his/her opinion. You don't have to hold back what you honestly think of anything. With time, your assessment and opinions either are proven true or false.

I am being out there putting my assessment to the gallery so I can be judged against what I wrote. And that goes to everyone.

Just look back in your previous posts about Somaliland, non of it came true. Which means, your opinion is not based on reality but a pre-existing misconceptions. 

For instance, this outlandish claim of yours comes to mind.

 

[galbeedi]

OOdweyne, 

Welcome back.

[baala xoofto]

On 7/26/2022 at 8:29 AM, baala xoofto said:

It is possible that Abiy already had information about the upcoming Egyptian tour. And possibly more. After all, Ethiopia and Farmaajo were very close and it is possible that Ethiopians may have bugged Villa Somalia's computers/networks and have access to a lot more information.

When I said that comment, it was from my assessment.

This is what Yuusuf Garaad, Ex-Somalia Foreign Minister.

 

Imagine, when what is happening in Villa Somalia is known in Addis Abeba before the occupier of Villa Somalia himself knows about it? 

 

 

------------

Xog Hoose ma ku siiyaa?

Waa haddii Sadarrada qoran keligood aanad akhrin ee dhexdooda aad kala bixi karto inta ku hoos qarsoonaan karta.

Akhris wacan.

Waa habeenkii la dilay Saaxiibkeey, Wasiir Cabbaas Siraaji iyo hadal habeenkaa dhex maray Hoggaamiyayaashii Soomaaliya iyo Ethiopia oo labaduba markaa ka dib laba xilli oo kala duwan uu midba mar waayay xilalkiisii.

Waa horraantii bishii Meey 2017. Waa Addis Ababa. Waxaan fadhiyaa casho sharaf si qurxoon loo soo agaasimay oo uu Ra’iisal Wasaarihii Ethiopia, Xayle Mariam, uu ku casuumay Madaxweynihii Soomaaliya, Maxamed Farmaajo iyo wafdigiisa oo isugu jiray Wasiirro aan ka mid ahay, Xildhibaanno iyo mas’uuliyiin kale oo sare.

Miisas uu mid kastaa qaab goobo ah u sameysan yahay oo teel teel u yaalla ayaa mid kasta waxaa fadhiya mas’uuliyiin isku dhaf ah oo inta badan isu dhigma ugu yaraan derejo ahaan oo Soomaali iyo Ethiopian ah.

Miiska ugu mudan oo ka durugsan inta kale waxaa fadhiya Madaxweyne Farmaajo iyo Marwadiisa, oo uu dhexeeyo Ra’iisal Wasaaraha Ethiopia oo ay marwadiisu wehliso, Wasiirkii Arrimaha Dibadda ee Ethiopia iyo aniga oo dhiggiisa ahaa. Waa inta aanuu nagu soo biirin Madaxweynihii Ismaamulka Soomaalida, Cabdi Cumar.

Jawi qurxoon oo kaftan taxaddar leh iyo sheekooyin noo socday ayaa mar qura hakad galay, ka dib markii miisaskii naga fogaa mid ka mid ah uu ka soo kacay howlwadeen ka mid ah Habmaamuuska Madaxweynaha. Telefoon khadka ku jira oo uu gacanta ku siday ayuu u dhiibay Madaxweynaha.

Waxaa isaguna soo kacay Sanbaloolshe, oo markaa ahaa Taliyaha Nabad Sugidda, wuxuuna dhegta iigu sheegay in la dilay Wasiir Cabbaas Siraaji.

Waxaan weydiiyay cidda dishay? Wuxuu ii sheegay in Ciidanka Dowladda gacantooda uu ku baxay Wasiirku.

Markii uu Sanbaloolshe iga tegey ka dib ayuu Madaxweynuhu dhammaystay telefoonkii uu ku hadlayay, Isaga oo aammusan ayuu i soo eegay.

Aniga oo af Soomaali kula hadlaya ayaan weydiiyay su’aal: Madaxweyne, Wasiirka la dilay miyaa laguu sheegay?

Markii uu ii jawaabay ayaan u jeediyay in uu mas’uulka la fadhiya la wadaago, maaddaama uu warku dibadda u soo bixi doono. Markii uu mar labaad iga hubsaday in ay sidaasi ila habboon tahay ayuu u sheegay Haile Mariam.

Aniguna waxaan u sheegay Wasiirkii Arrimaha Dibadda Ethiopia oo i garab fadhiyay.

Madaxweynaha iyo aniguba waxaan helnay isku jawaab. “Waan ogahay” ayay ahayd jawaabtii Madaxweynaha dhegta loogu dhibciyay, oo la mid ahayd tii aniga la i siiyay.

Laba ruux ayaa soo kacay si Madaxweynaha iyo aniga naloo wargeliyo in Wasiirkeennii la dilay.

Cid soo kacday oo Ethiopian ahi ma jirin, Ra’iisal Wasaaraha iyo Wasiirkana horteen ayaa lagu wargeliyay dilka Wasiirka Soomaaliya.

Safarkayagii waan soo gaabinnay, waagu markii uu beryayna waxaan u soo duulnay Muqdisho, waxaana ii suurta gashay in aan ka qeybgalo shirkii Golaha Wasiirrada ee dilka Wasiirka looga warbixiyay loogana arrinsaday.

Dilka habeenkaa ka dhacay Muqdisho iyo hadalladii miiska Sare ee Addis Ababa la isku weydaarsaday ee aan kula wadaagay, akhristow ka feker oo u qaado shaqo guri.

Waxa kuu soo baxa ee ay kula noqotana fadlan halkan igula wadaag.

Faahfaahin intaa ka badan hadda diyaar uma ahi.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/yusuf.garaad/posts/pfbid09g7s5W2fchYDff433iphZ5ZimuRGfD2YkhwAgGANkFamxtdJ91jfati3sGXNER2dl

[Qurac&qansax]

Yusuf Garaad Qormadiisu waa fariin ka timid Itoobiya oo la rabo in lagu bajiyo Madaxweyne Xasan.

“Dilkii Wasiir Siraaji Madaxweynaha Somaliya,waxaa ka hor ogaaday ra’isalwasaaraha Itoobiya”.

Xogtaas muxuu horay ugu sheegi waayay Yuusuf haduu hayay oo hada kusoo beegay?

Ujeedku waa Xasanow Itoobiya siday doonto ayay kaa yeeli kartaaye ee saas la soco.

[maakhiri1]

Cajiib , Yusuf garaad Waa u iljibiyey,  wink, to HSM.

Laakin dhoohane damiin weeye Culusow,  ma fahmi doono