President Hassan should read the writing in the wall, Dani will not be the next premier and the winner is ...Ahmed Nadoobe.

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president elect Hassan Sheikh will be the first ever president elected to office twice since the birth of the Somali republic in 1960. During the last 22 years starting from Carta  Djibouti,  a new name tops the list, and since 2012, unexpected dark horse comes from no where and wins the election. in 2012, Hassan Sheikh was unknow.  He wasn't among the the top contenders. In 2017, Farmaajo was trailing as number four behind Hassan Sheikh, Shariif Ahmed and Cumar Sharmaarke. A friend of mine told me  in 2016, despite the efforts of the incumbent president a new man with dark horse will take it, and it did happen.


Now, not only Hassan Sheikh made a history, but also, he got a huge opportunity to do the right thing and a mountain of experience to guide him. President Hassan is known to be an able man (nin karti leh) who is among the few Somali politicians who never left the country. The main disadvantage of the " Qolqol Joog" is they are mesmerized when they see a foreigner with suitcase and they usually give away the whole shop.


Hassan created Galmudug, Southwest and accepted Jubbaland despite early clashes with Ahmed Madoobe. He liberated Marka, Baraawe, Qoryooley and other districts in Lower Shabeelle with mixture of national army and clan militia. He signed a security agreement with Turkey to train Somali soldiers and both the airport and the port opened during his regime.


Despite those achievements president Hassan was dodged by corruption allegations and grafts that reached international level. When of the biggest that made the headlines was the threat faced by the governor of the central bank Yusur Abraar after she refused to sanction the set up of a foreign (Dubai) account to deposit the oversees Somali asset recovered by international lawyers. Since the account will not be controlled by the central bank, but through one of the corrupt  deputy finances ministers, she claimed it might lead to misappropriation or worse a theft. The lady was threatened and she flew from Mogadishu in the middle of the night.

There are many other allegations including giving contracts to family members and others. Finally, those corruptions reached some western countries like USA which added Hassan Sheikh to the list of visa bans to enter America. These things are not disputed.


Now, with full mandate and a second term ahead of him , does Hassan Sheikh try to clean his name or stay away any shady businesses that might damage his administration and weaken his resolve to move the country ahead? We don't have all the answers , but the indications are not good.


Here is what happened before he even took the oath of the office.


Technically, Farmaajo is still the president until Hassan Sheikh is sworn in which might happen within a week or so. That is why we call him president elect. He can have meetings with stake holders, regional leaders and even security chiefs,  but he can not reverse any decisions taken by Farmaajo unless he assumes office. Yet, yesterday, Rooble, the man seeking to enrich himself before the end the of the clock, is using every trick in the book to take advantage with the blessing of Hassan Sheikh. Yesterday they got the approval of the court and the attorney general and without a delay they went straight  to the central bank and took ownership of the $ 9.6 million confiscated from UAE at the Aden Cadde airport.. The president who refused the withdrawal of the money, Farmaajo, is still in charge, but the crooks went ahead before a new premier is appointed. The UAE said, they will leave the money for the current government to use for the drought relieve.  So the money is taken from the bank and it is in the pillow of Rooble and the 30 years old 30 million man. I do not have a proof, but common sense tells me that this money is stolen and will be divided among the hungry hyenas who took the government since May 2021. 


If this money is given back, a simple cheque would have been written to the foreign government, and if they intended to give back, all they have to do is give back the cheque to the bank, case closed. But no,  The boys want the cash withdrawn from the bank and deal with it. Here the finace ministry is not even involved. It is a day light robbery.


Folks, this is corruption number two  under the new regime of Hassan Sheikh within a week of his election.


You might ask, if that was number two where is number one? 


Well, three days after he was elected , exactly May 18, where secessionists usually fill airwaves, Rooble and again the 30 years old millionaire who happen to be the security minister gave the contract to import Kenya Mira Khat to the country without no one noticing except those who chew. Muqdisho waa laga qayilayaa.


The idea of allowing the import of Ethiopian Khat while blocking the Kenyan Mira was by itself one of the ugly policies of Farmaajo, but if these things should be reversed, then the elected president should have waited until he takes office. It is an ugly to walk on the top the departing president. Tradition teaches us winner should be gracious while those who lost must show class and congratulate the winner. To be fair, so far all the statements that came from the mouth of Hassan Sheikh seem to be intelligent, reassuring and honorable. Yet, the day light robbery of Rooble and company might damage Haassan Sheikh and that talk of corruption might weaken his future governing.


If Hassan Sheikh want to have clean start, he must stop these people using his name to enrich themselves for the last minute. We already know that Rooble want to depose Qoor Qoor within a year and take over Galmudug. To achieve that goal he is trying to collect as much gold and silver as possible. He told some people that his clan is the majority in Galmudug and they need a seat at the table. The only way for Rooble to be player for the future is to takeover Galmudug and become one of the heavy weights. Yet, only God knows if he could succeed. C/weli Gaas went from premier to Puntland president, yet Puntlanders will tell you that he was one of the worst presidents in Puntalnd history.


Deni will not be the prime minister.


We all agree that the next 12 months are crucial for the political future of C/laahi deni.


We also know that he is a formidable leader who doesn't take any prisoners. It is either  his way or the highway politics had polarized Puntland, but the election of Hassan Sheikh might have sealed his faith in a negative way. Out of the gate when he announced his candidacy, he never mentioned his future goals or his platform for the country he was running to lead. All he said was : My intension is to defeat Farmaajo. It is the same empty, ugly and stupid slogan Somali rebels used against Siyaad Barre with no program or plans. Emotional people always make mistakes that will cost them dearly and difficult to rectify.  Certainly Somalia needed a change because of the quagmire that started when that able premier Khayre left the post. Some might say that the goal of Dani and his supporters were to save the federal system from Farmaajo and the selection of Hassan would guarantee that goal. I do not buy that claim, because Somali leaders usually don't look to future that much, but concentrate for the current obstacle that is blocking them.


Here are the main reasons why C/laahi Dani will not be the next premier.


First, Dani has one of the negative approval rates among Somalis from deferent regions including from his home town of Boosaaso. Certain leader including Muuse Biixi, Sanblooshe and the Galmudug students of Hassaan Sheikh like Fiqi and Mahad Salaad who seek the limelight everyday come to mind. If you have to point fingers for those who insult others by using tribal language, Dani Ina Biixi, and Sanblooshe comes to mind.  So, why would Hassan Sheikh bring someone hated by the super majority of Somalis including those from Sanaag, Sool and Bari? This week I  have seen a small sampling of the people of Mogadishu being asked  about the next prime minister and the overwhelming majority has said, " They don't want a premier pushed by a group, clan or special interest group". When you listen those voices, you will realize who they really mean without saying the name. Besides, with the history of Dani openly sharing state secrets with the public when he becomes emotional, it is a risk to be given to that kind of positions. Puntlanders used to better than this, but if the quagmire continues the later will be always worse than the former. From departure of late C/laahi Yusuf, all we saw from Puntland was fat and ugly men and Faroole.


Second, Dani is an alpha male who might not accept subordination to a higher president who is seeking a plaint premier.  Hassan had seen first hand the clashes with premiers including Cumar Sharmaarke challenging his to the seat wile he was the premier. He will probably change some of the rules before he appoints the prime minister.


I would even ague that C/laahi Dani might not even allow a premier from Puntland who could take the limelight and the political power of Puntland  from him.  Furthermore, early next year the Puntland election is up and the chances of Dani coming back is almost zero. Dani, as he promised before, had defeated Farmaajo, but he will also go down with Farmaajo and we might not even see him this time next years.


If C/laahi Dani isn't going to be the premier and will not allow one from the neck of his woods, who will be the next one.?


Well, let me say that despite Hassan Sheikh, the other winner of this selection is Ahmed Madoobe.


Those of us who were ridding the N&N bandwagon loved to hate Madoobe. Some of us who were looking for a foreign adversary to shift the quarrel among Somalis to other desired enemies,  even wanted  a war with Kenya, especially during the dispute of the maritime border skirmishes. Furthermore, we always hated those who try to weaken the Somali leaders through foreign proxies.


Yet, despite all the noise Ahmed Madoobe stood his ground. Unlike C/laahi Dani, he doesn't pollute the airwaves with ugly talk or boasting to get rid of Farmaajo. Last week I asked a friend of mine from Jubbaland that for all this years, " do you have any statement attributed to Madoobe regarding Farmaajo?. He told me that he heard that after meeting Farmaajo in Garoowe and Mogadishu, he said, " The man I saw doesn't run the country, but who is running the country" Waar ninkaan arkay dalka ma maamuule yaa meeshan ka taliya?.


THere is no doubt Ahmed Madoobe has friends in high places, yet, he has shown to be a man that can fight and reconcile when needed. When Xiddig and others challenged his election, he never threatened or allowed things to go out of hand. He eventually reconciled with his opponents. When a former minister oomaar went to Nairobi and proclaimed to chalenge him, those who knew him said, " This Oomaar guy, during the height of N&N with full  resources and army, could not convince Farmaajo to target Bu'ale instead of Gedo, now with collapse of the government and the reign Rooble he will be a kid trying to play with adults".


During the debate of Gedo delegates, Madoobe decided to block Garbahaareey and instead chose Ceel Waaq. Farmaajo barked, other spoke of injustice, but Madoobe stood his ground. We haven't seen even once to gauge his intensions or his plans.  About ten days ago, he claimed that the Gedo issue had nothing to do with him , but the decision is rested with the divided Gedo community. That is the typical divide and rule.  Yet, in hand sight some people argue that Jubbaland and Ahmed Madoobe could have the political base of Farmaajo. Since his communities faith is interconnected with Ahmed Madoobe, he could have brought them together and that would have empowered Madoobe and Gedo both.  Unlike many leaders before him Farmaajo didn't had a base of for political support. He became hostage to Galmudug leaders who were not interested in government or rule of law. Most of his chiefs of staff, including those who encouraged the firing of Khayre were from Galmudug. It was too late by the time he realized.


Forget Farmaajo, we are talking about Madoobe. Ahmed madoobe not only survived the war, but might even appoint the next premier from Jubbaland. There are indications that the next premier could be coming from Jubbaland.  There are few names including Xalane who was a finance minister twice and others. The problem is how would the mother of federalism react with a premier from Jubbland?. Some might say that since Dani and Madoobe are allies there won't be any problems, but the disappointment of Puntland people in general is apparent. I don't blame them, because any one who sees Sanblooshe, Khadija Diiriye and Mahad Salaad government should feel really bad and proclaim: is this why we deposed Farmaajo?


The best option for the country is to welcome the next Jubbaland premier as a legitimate man who has a huge base of support. But, if others belittle him and claim to be a HAG hostage, both him and the country will not succeed. Furthermore, in terms of resource, the Jubbland region is one of the richest provinces in the country. You got livestock, fisheries, agriculture and light industries. During the eighties, the military government had even created a ministry called " Jubba Valley" to build dams, water reservoirs and heavy industries like meat processing and sugar plants. Faanoole and Mogaabo were the biggest, but since we didn't have local engineers, the foreign technicians milked the projects without any end in sight.

One things these elections and local leaders taught me and others is that those of us from the diaspora can't play with locals. It might take minimum of at least five years to for most of us to even grasp how the corrupt locals make deals.

 Ahmed Madoobe gave us a lesson how to conduct business without barking. He sits at the election table as quite guest , and if you are people like me , you will think this guy just an outsiders observing the Mogadishu market of selling and buying members of market.

I conclude by saying if Hassan Sheikh doesn't clean the house and act differently, me might soon go back to Halene tent (Teendhadii ayaa dib loogu noqon).




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37 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

I conclude by saying if Hassan Sheikh doesn't clean the house and act differently, me might soon go back to Halene tent (Teendhadii ayaa dib loogu noqon).

That is the prognosis in 3.5 years time. 

This time, going to back to Xalane will be like up sugar creek without a paddles. Very ugly.


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Madaxweynaha dowladda Puntland Siciid Cabdullaahi Deni ayaa maanta ku wajahan magaalada Nairobi ee xarunta waddanka Kenya. Madaxweyne Deni oo hadda… Sii akhri

Deni is not happy. Instead of going to Garoowe, he is going to Nairobi. Abdulaahe yusuf said if they knew Somalia was going to be failed state he would not fight Siyaad Bare. As usual, we may see the Putland government use its resources to continue fighting Mogadishu government rather use to build the bad roads.

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To be honest only madoobe person can work with Hasan and his friends. I do not see  Hasan hiring the governor of west gaalkacayo  or any stronger person. 

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Why does he have to appoint some one from the dblock clan why not beesha shanaad is there a four point five rule u didiaya jagada raisal wasaaraha

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