Farmaajo should reduce the Ethiopian influence and prepare for the future.

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Ethiopia and its current leader Abiy Ahmed are buying time and acting as benevolent neighbor of Somalia. We have been watching Mr. Abiy for a year and half, and it seems he isn't what he claims to be. As a former intelligence operator, Abiy had probably mastered the art of misinformation and misleading the public. His real face will probably appear as he tries to copy his former allies,  the TPLF , and create a new dictatorship while proclaiming false democracy.

While the TPLF had done many bad things,  it also dismantled the Menelik and Haile Selassie empire and destroyed the evil Derg. It was unfortunate that the Meles led Ethiopia were trapped by America and others to intervene and invade Somalia when the Islamic Courts Union showed up and threatened war. Since Meles feared a resurgent Somali led by people he perceived to be threatening, he decided to keep Somali fragmented until acceptable leaders show up. Yet , the TPLF naturally needed Somalis and the Oromo to dismantle the Amhara system. 


The big difference between the TPLF and Abiy is that the later want to reconstruct the old Ethiopia of yesterday. He spent 170 million dollars to renovate and resurrect the old colonial images and history of Menelik which the Amhara worship. Just like the old Amhara Derg, he assassinates and kills people quietly while covering his steps. By hasty creating a new party called Prosperity party , he is building the next dictatorship of Ethiopia under one single party that will have branches in the regional governments.

Farmaajo,  like most Somali leaders before him , is trying very hard  to give the Somali shop to Abiy  without thinking the future consequences. Eritrea which got more than they bargained including the disputed border and other major concessions is not  even jumping up to these Abiy overtures. In fact, Eritrea did not even open its border with Ethiopia yet. People might cross from Eritrea to Ethiopia, but the Tigray section of the border is closed for fear of mischief and coup plots that could arise from their neighbor. Yet, we Somalis,  with more danger than Eritrea are willing to jump in without caution.

With the history of Ethiopia meddling Somali issues in recent history, you would expect every Somali to be vigilant and cautious with their dealings of Ethiopia. As we speak, Farmajo is asking Ethiopian forces to cross the border and intervene in Dhuusamareeb. With thousands of Somalis in MOgadishu including the recent Somali commandos who graduated from the Turkish academy, why you need to increase the  influence of regional competitor in your internal affairs? , why a Somali president want to contract national security projects to foreign powers? 


All current parameters indicate that this abiy guy is buying time while Ethiopia is in a big mess. Since he has Amhara colonial mentality , expect danger and security threat in the future. He might even use war or other misadventures to consolidate power like his predecessors. Also current geopolitical moves from the Evil Emirates and the French government might indicate a future threat to both Somalia and Eritrea. Why would a landlocked country will enter a contract with a European country and build a navy?. THe UAE which doesn't have any borders with Ethiopia has just signed a security pact with Abiy. Who is the target of this military pact? Since Eritrea is wounded and any calamity against president Asias might lead to Ethiopia annexing eritrea or entering some kind of arrangements.  

The Late Prof. Omar Raabe said that any future Somali government should build close relations with the colonized people of Ethiopia whether they were Somalis, Oromo, Gambella oe Afar and use them against Ethiopia if they ever think  again of unleashing rebels against Somalia. If I were Farmaajo I would keep cordial and neighborly relationship and avoid using Ethiopia to intervene internal Somali issue. THe Oromo will no longer accept leaders to be appointed by Addis and Somalis want to have that right . If Farmaajo, Cagjar and company want to join Amhara that is their choice but the Somali people must distance themselves from these moves.

I supported Farmaajo when he used EThiopian troops to dislodge Kismaayo from Madoobe in order to weaken Kenyan future plans including the border dispute, but no sane Somali will accept Ethiopian troops in Galmudug to save guard the election while Somali troops could maintain security. 

In conclusion, Farmaajo must understand that Somalis want the reduction and the eventual departure of foreign troops from the country including Ethiopian troops. It seems a proxy war between Kenya and Ethiopia inside somalia had started in earnest with deadly consequences. Why we keep circling the wagon? In 2020, we thought Ethiopian troops won't be criss crossing the borders us usual.

Rather than beg Ethiopia, get ready for the future disintegration of Ethiopia and connect with the Somalis and the Oromo. Stop acting weak and in need of help. 

Iama doorin Gaalkaan diray iyo Daarta kii galay.




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You want a leader who is protected by Ethiopia to go against Ethiopia regional interest  how strange is this. Farmaajo can't do anything against abiye politically. 

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The mistake was that most people justified the Ethiopian action in SWS by saying that the attested was Al Shabab.

That was wrong. Now its too late.

If you supported Abiy in SWS, if you supported Abiy in his attempt on Jubaland, if you applauded Abiy in Kililka, then  its too late and imposible now to oppose Abiy anywhere.



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