Somalia's Thorny Problems on the Horn of Africa

[Duufaan]

Somalia's Thorny Problems on the Horn of Africa

WORLDVIEW.STRATFOR.COM

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Militancy and internal divisions could keep Mogadishu from participating in the new era of cooperation envisioned by Ethiopia's prime minister.

 

[Duufaan]

Although I agree on many parts of their analyses, the message is to stay away from Somalia and cooperation for eastern African is no good. Nothing on Ethiopian army deployment here as our  Sol friends indicated. They mentioned the weak Somali army but that is not everything. It is all about the internal political situation. The parliament is functioning after they got rid of Jawaahari. Now Farmaajo government needs friendly governors to work with, not multi presidents that controlled by foreigners. The  faith of Somali nationhood depends on that when middle east wars and insecurity is transferred to East Africa

[Old_Observer]

4 hours ago, Duufaan said:

Although I agree on many parts of their analyses, the message is to stay away from Somalia and cooperation for eastern African is no good. Nothing on Ethiopian army deployment here as our  Sol friends indicated. They mentioned the weak Somali army but that is not everything. It is all about the internal political situation. The parliament is functioning after they got rid of Jawaahari. Now Farmaajo government needs friendly governors to work with, not multi presidents that controlled by foreigners. The  faith of Somali nationhood depends on that when middle east wars and insecurity is transferred to East Africa

 

The most important issue for Somalia is bad or good, has to have constitution.

Farmaajo is now convinced by Isayas and Abiy to go for unitary system and keep constitution on hold. Abiy is finding out that even weak federalism in Ethiopia is so powerful that some regions are like countries.

For Somalia this is dead end. Another generation wasted on unitary and federal. Yes Federal is hard to maintain, but people in general are more happy than unitary ones. All politics is local if you don't control our local affairs you are no body in politics.

 

Mr. Jawaharri was removed for the constitution work, but now people have forgotten already and and after few face book posts SFG has filed it away.

[galbeedi]

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After a long history of rivalry, Ethiopia will struggle to secure its interests and promote security in Somalia without restoring Mogadishu's previous position as Addis Ababa's rival. To make matters more complicated, other regional players such as Kenya will insert themselves into the relationship to further their own interests.

 

Overall it is a good article . This quote sums up the intensions of Ethiopia. A restored Somali will be a giant that will dominate the region in many ways. Nations are by nature rivals until many things change for decades.

After the second world war France had maintained it's military presence in Germany until nineteen seventies. It took 50 years before the single currency and unbroken trade relationship. We can't even cross their border or sell any thing to them, yet people are talking about economic union.

The Arab League is older than the EU, yet since 1945 up today, it remains a tribal counsel that disagrees on everything. There are no trade, cultural, or security arrangements among them. Restore your sovereignty then talk to others to trade first on basic cross border issues.

"AMISOM has been the bedrock of Somali stability for over a decade, playing a crucial role in fighting militants, providing executive protection and training local forces. The Somali National Army, on the other hand, has not proven itself up to the task of defending, let alone capturing, territory from al Shabaab, which remains resilient. Consequently, AMISOM will remain crucial to maintaining stability as long as international powers such as the United States stand to gain, although the mission could evolve and other states could emerge to make a contribution in time".

Since the Somali army is ineffective according to everyone involved, Amisom will remain for a long time. he mentions that the role of Amisom is "to fight Al-Shabaab, protecting the executive (the president and his cabinet) and train Somali army.

At the moment, they are hiding in their barracks let alone fight militants, and are not training no one. So, their main job is controlling  the green zone, protect the leaders  and draw their salary.Who is protecting the Somali people.

He also concludes that if America doesn't pay Amisom others could emerge and contribute.

In the Somali issue no one is discussing what the nations leaders and its citizens are supposed to do to rebuild and restore their nation. It is all about others: Amisom, Ethiopia, donors and the world.

[galbeedi]

Do we have to finish our days months, years and decades hiding in hotels making few dollars while others are manage our country?  Worse of all , if you are a businessman with a lot money, yet you can't enjoy it in your own country .

Some times, things should be broken in order to be fixed for good.

I ask my self, Are we better than Farmajo, Hassan Sheikh and many other Somalis who are educated , with hundreds of counselors and advising them and helping them to succeed,? No. If you think you are better them these guys, you must be dreaming.

The main issue is the system is designed to fail. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Boris Yelsin changed prime ministers almost every year, sometimes every few months with no avail.  Finally, a man called Vladimir Putin showed up and changed the system.

When a despot from Burundi decided to help Somalis and prolong his term in office, I knew we were doomed. Dadkii Afrikada uGu liitay ayaa amaankeeni gacanta loo geliyey. 

 

[Duufaan]

The issue is not unitory or federalism. At this point the most people support the current system as planned but not as  it is functioning. You have five presidents, each region has 25 ministers including foreign ministers for some of them. Each one has it is election season. In MN, we have  a governor, state secretary and state attorney general which all are elected. The rest of state government are local branches of federal governments. You talking about a country call itself United States with it’s historic  tradition of independence. I am optimistic , starting south west, we will see new leaders, different the old Tigray group.

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

 

In the Somali issue no one is discussing what the nations leaders and its citizens are supposed to do to rebuild and restore their nation. It is all about others: Amisom, Ethiopia, donors and the world.

This is how it designed but Somalia can change that.

 

[Duufaan]

7 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Do we have to finish our days months, years and decades hiding in hotels making few dollars while others are manage our country?  Worse of all , if you are a businessman with a lot money, yet you can't enjoy it in your own country .

Some times, things should be broken in order to be fixed for good.

I ask my self, Are we better than Farmajo, Hassan Sheikh and many other Somalis who are educated , with hundreds of counselors and advising them and helping them to succeed,? No. If you think you are better them these guys, you must be dreaming.

The main issue is the system is designed to fail. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Boris Yelsin changed prime ministers almost every year, sometimes every few months with no avail.  Finally, a man called Vladimir Putin showed up and changed the system.

When a despot from Burundi decided to help Somalis and prolong his term in office, I knew we were doomed. Dadkii Afrikada uGu liitay ayaa amaankeeni gacanta loo geliyey. 

 

Galbeedi

I am optimistic, the time is with Somali people. Maybe that leader will show up. Somalia is a better position than ever.

[galbeedi]

I totally agree with you  that the time is with Somalis if we get good captains to lead us. 

Even here is the diaspora the bleeding of the young people might stop for the next few years. The Somali youth of future  building blocks is taking shape.

Last week I went to the local university for the graduation of my son as a chemical engineer. As I sit with my family in the gallery while people were cheering when the names of the students were called, I was on assignment as usual to observe and look any anomalies.

In almost every category there was a young Somali boy or girl. The engineering class started with hundreds of students , and as  years go by at the end only six had graduated this fall while the rest might finish in the spring or later. Among those six there were two Somalis. 

My son who was Somali student association president for a couple of years told me that he  had the emails and contacts of about 400 Somali student from the freshmen to the seniors. Folks, that is huge. Among the nursing classes a quarter of the students are Somali girls.

As I said, I was looking uncharacteristic  anomalies and found them at this graduation ceremony. 

First, among the graduates , there were probably zero Eritreans and one or two Ethiopians. There is a large Ethiopian and Eritrean community in this town and the province , yet very small number , one or two  are graduating. Folks, it is all about ambition and drive of the Somali parent to some extent and self confidence of our youth.

 Since we Somalis represent many labels such as Africans, east Africans, Arabs and Muslims, it seems that,  other than few Nigerians , we dominated each of these categories. 

Second, there is this group who are overrated by the media and powers that be who are  constantly telling  people how smart and studious these people are yet, despite their large population which is ten times bigger than the Somalis in this area,  very small number of them were graduating mostly from liberal art schools.

Can anyone guess who these people are?

They are the East Indians who are depicted as smart and educated. They are promoted in board rooms and other places, yet I do not see them excelling in these education halls in Alberta. Maybe they are educated back home in Indian and bring those degrees here and start from the top. Anyway, it was strange compared with the Chinese.

The largest number of  the graduates, by far,  were Chinese or Chinese origin. In fact, I could say among the graduates of technologies and other sciences they could haven been  four or five out of very  ten students called to receive. 

Finally, the old  stock Canadians of French and English Origin, were concentrating on sectors like environmental studies, forestry management, food and agriculture management, phycology, social studies and other liberal art studies that might give them government jobs and other service industry management positions. Less than 10% were in geology, chemical. electrical, and engineering sectors. The technical sectors were dominated by the Chinese , Hispanic, Arab and other ethnic groups. In fact these ceremonies show how this country is becoming a multicultural place with diverse population that is mostly immigrant and children of immigrant.

Any way, to make the story short, the Somali youth are rising and people will notice their strength soon. We already lost a large number of adult young men from 28-38 age bracket who came this country as a small boys with large family that struggled to adapt and succeed in the new environment. In any big community like ours, there will be small loses and collateral damages, but the picture and the future id bright.

The poet laurates of this town is a Somali man and others are following. We are not a nation of static and dormant people. We are nomads who want to make history for good or bad, yet we have been led by inward looking cowards who count pennies and afraid of making the big changes needed to reach the next level.

We need someone to crush  the entrenched business community of Mogadishu and Hargeisa who pay taxes to militants and get rich of the misery of the people. 

We should not accept mediocre leaders who want to be praised before they dug a well for the people. We want people who want to work for their people and make the tough decisions needed for our problems. 

 

 

[maakhiri1]

I have diff take, every time there is an election, worse character MPs are selected, thru corruption, the corrupted  MPs, then select the worse leader. it is a cycle. The nabadoons and Chief Caqils are on it, the public are on it

It is cycle, and I don't see any improvement for at least many years to come.

It will be diff once it becomes one man one vote

[galbeedi]

I see the same cycle at the election level.

Next time it might even take $100 million or more to win. It is out of the for most.

By the way, I am getting messages people saying that I am becoming the bearer of bad news these days.

I will take a break any see what Farmaajo does for the next few months.

See you guys in the new year.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

13 hours ago, galbeedi said:

I totally agree with you  that the time is with Somalis if we get good captains to lead us. 

Even here is the diaspora the bleeding of the young people might stop for the next few years. The Somali youth of future  building blocks is taking shape.

Last week I went to the local university for the graduation of my son as a chemical engineer. As I sit with my family in the gallery while people were cheering when the names of the students were called, I was on assignment as usual to observe and look any anomalies.

In almost every category there was a young Somali boy or girl. The engineering class started with hundreds of students , and as  years go by at the end only six had graduated this fall while the rest might finish in the spring or later. Among those six there were two Somalis. 

My son who was Somali student association president for a couple of years told me that he  had the emails and contacts of about 400 Somali student from the freshmen to the seniors. Folks, that is huge. Among the nursing classes a quarter of the students are Somali girls.

As I said, I was looking uncharacteristic  anomalies and found them at this graduation ceremony. 

First, among the graduates , there were probably zero Eritreans and one or two Ethiopians. There is a large Ethiopian and Eritrean community in this town and the province , yet very small number , one or two  are graduating. Folks, it is all about ambition and drive of the Somali parent to some extent and self confidence of our youth.

 Since we Somalis represent many labels such as Africans, east Africans, Arabs and Muslims, it seems that,  other than few Nigerians , we dominated each of these categories. 

Second, there is this group who are overrated by the media and powers that be who are  constantly telling  people how smart and studious these people are yet, despite their large population which is ten times bigger than the Somalis in this area,  very small number of them were graduating mostly from liberal art schools.

Can anyone guess who these people are?

They are the East Indians who are depicted as smart and educated. They are promoted in board rooms and other places, yet I do not see them excelling in these education halls in Alberta. Maybe they are educated back home in Indian and bring those degrees here and start from the top. Anyway, it was strange compared with the Chinese.

The largest number of  the graduates, by far,  were Chinese or Chinese origin. In fact, I could say among the graduates of technologies and other sciences they could haven been  four or five out of very  ten students called to receive. 

Finally, the old  stock Canadians of French and English Origin, were concentrating on sectors like environmental studies, forestry management, food and agriculture management, phycology, social studies and other liberal art studies that might give them government jobs and other service industry management positions. Less than 10% were in geology, chemical. electrical, and engineering sectors. The technical sectors were dominated by the Chinese , Hispanic, Arab and other ethnic groups. In fact these ceremonies show how this country is becoming a multicultural place with diverse population that is mostly immigrant and children of immigrant.

Any way, to make the story short, the Somali youth are rising and people will notice their strength soon. We already lost a large number of adult young men from 28-38 age bracket who came this country as a small boys with large family that struggled to adapt and succeed in the new environment. In any big community like ours, there will be small loses and collateral damages, but the picture and the future id bright.

The poet laurates of this town is a Somali man and others are following. We are not a nation of static and dormant people. We are nomads who want to make history for good or bad, yet we have been led by inward looking cowards who count pennies and afraid of making the big changes needed to reach the next level.

We need someone to crush  the entrenched business community of Mogadishu and Hargeisa who pay taxes to militants and get rich of the misery of the people. 

We should not accept mediocre leaders who want to be praised before they dug a well for the people. We want people who want to work for their people and make the tough decisions needed for our problems. 

 

 

Hambalyo ayaa leeyahay wiilkaaga, mustaqbal wacana waa u rajeynaa hadduu Rabi idmo.

Dhalinta qalinjabineysay Soomaaliyeed yaa ogaado the ratio was 65-35 - 65% girls, 35% boys. Qurbahaan jaamacadaha iyo kuliyadaha waxaa aad ugu badan gabdhahaa than wiilasha.