Super Tuesday may underline Trump’s transformation of the GOP Analysis by Ronald Brownstein, CNN Updated 1:06 PM EST, Tue March 5, 2024 'Couldn't be more wrong': Mayorkas reacts to Gov. Abbott's criticism of Biden 02:43 Van Jones was 'prepared to have a big conflict' with conservative politician. Then he was surprised 02:45 SE Cupp explains what she says is a 'huge warning sign for Donald Trump' 01:38 Brownstein says this makes Trump a different candidate than he was in 2016 01:41 How Sinema's announcement could impact Kari Lake's campaign 02:18 George Conway: The key thing SCOTUS didn't say in their opinion 01:41 New selfie shows Chesebro posing with conspiracy theorist at January 6th Capitol riot 01:53 Hear from Haley supporters dreading a Biden-Trump rematch 03:09 Retired judge predicted SCOTUS wouldn't allow Trump on the ballot. Hear his reaction to their ruling 02:26 Ex-Trump lawyer is most concerned about this Trump case 01:41 Correspondent on why SCOTUS decision is 'enormous' win for Trump 01:04 Nikki Haley says she'll continue to fight as long as race is 'competitive' 01:19 See the ways Trump's campaign is trying to save money for the general election 02:02 Cheers erupt when Harris calls for 'immediate ceasefire' in Gaza 01:57 Trump says GOP candidate is MLK Jr. 'on steroids'. Hear National Urban League president's reaction 01:22 'Couldn't be more wrong': Mayorkas reacts to Gov. Abbott's criticism of Biden 02:43 Van Jones was 'prepared to have a big conflict' with conservative politician. Then he was surprised 02:45 SE Cupp explains what she says is a 'huge warning sign for Donald Trump' 01:38 Brownstein says this makes Trump a different candidate than he was in 2016 01:41 How Sinema's announcement could impact Kari Lake's campaign 02:18 George Conway: The key thing SCOTUS didn't say in their opinion 01:41 CNN — Heading into Super Tuesday, former President Donald Trump remains on track to potentially win more primaries and caucuses than any previous Republican presidential candidate other than an incumbent. His performance so far reflects his success at transforming the Republican Party in his image. He’s reshaped the GOP into a more blue-collar, populist and pugnacious party, focused more on his volatile blend of resentments against elites and cultural and racial change than the Ronald Reagan-era priorities of smaller government and active global leadership that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has stressed. The refusal of almost any GOP elected officials to endorse his last remaining rival – despite the qualms some of them hold about the direction Trump is imposing on the party –testifies to their recognition that the former president now commands nearly unquestioned loyalty from a majority of the GOP coalition. RELATED ARTICLEWhat to know about Super Tuesday But while the primaries have underscored Trump’s grip on the GOP, they have also demonstrated continued vulnerability for him in the areas where he has labored since he first announced his candidacy in 2015 – particularly among the white-collar suburban voters who mostly leaned toward the GOP before his emergence. The early 2024 nominating contests have shown that a substantial minority of Republican-leaning voters remain resistant to Trump’s vision. Even while posting such convincing victories, he has struggled with college-educated voters and moderates. Trump has carried only about 40% of independent voters who participated in the three contests where exit or entrance polls of voters have been conducted. Capturing both strength and weakness, the presidential primaries, as always, have offered important clues about the direction of the party holding them. As Trump nears what could be a crushing performance Tuesday, here’s a look at some of the key lessons about the GOP suggested by the results, and patterns of support, from this year’s primaries. The most important message from the primaries is the most straightforward: Trump’s coalition is the dominant faction in the GOP. Haley’s victory in Sunday’s low-turnout Washington, DC, primary will prevent Trump from winning every primary and caucus (as the past four incumbent GOP presidents have done.) But Trump is still faring better than any other Republican who was not an incumbent. (Reagan in 1980, Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000 and Mitt Romney in 2012 all won about 45 contests.) Veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres said the primaries have shown that Republican voters are viewing Trump, in effect, as an incumbent president to a greater extent than the other candidates expected. Trump is trying to become the first defeated incumbent to win a rematch four years later against the man who ousted him from the White House since Democrat Grover Cleveland beat Republican Benjamin Harrison in 1892. Trump “is running as a quasi-incumbent,” Ayres said. To understand his dominance, Ayres continued, “What we really need are entrance polls and exit polls from the 1892 Democratic coalition for Grover Cleveland. That’s the analogy: a former president running again to defeat the guy who beat him.” Chris Wilson, who polled for the super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during the primary, likewise said, “Trump’s lead in the GOP race at this point” is rooted in “the perception among a large number of GOP primary voters that Trump is effectively our incumbent candidate.” None of the other candidates, he said, “found the message that makes them think they should dump their de facto incumbent.” Yet in important ways, Trump is a different candidate than he was in 2016. This time he’s much stronger among – and more reliant on – the party’s most conservative elements. In his first run, Trump attracted almost exactly the same level of support among voters who described themselves as very conservative, somewhat conservative and moderate, according to a cumulative analysis by Gary Langer of ABC News of all the exit polls conducted that year. This time – in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the three states where exit or entrance polls have been conducted – voters who describe themselves as very conservative have given him a much higher share of their votes than the other two groups; he’s lost moderates badly in all three states, never exceeding 28% of the vote among them. Likewise, Trump is posting huge advantages this year among Republican voters who identify as White evangelical Christians, while facing a much closer split among voters who don’t. The gap in his support between evangelicals and everyone else is much wider than it was in 2016. Education was already the most important dividing line in the 2016 race, with Trump running 12 percentage points better among voters without a degree than those with at least a four-year college education, in the cumulative analysis. That gap, too, is much wider this time: Trump has run at least 25 points better among voters without a degree than those with one in each of the three states that have been polled on Election Day. (There’s some preliminary evidence as well that those non-college voters are comprising a larger share of the total vote than they did in 2016.) “Trump’s strength has kind of changed,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the political newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which is published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It’s made him a more durable Republican candidate. But it remains to be seen what that means for the general election.” For all Trump’s strength, he has faced stubborn resistance from a significant minority of primary voters. Despite his sweep of the early nominating contests, his share of the vote hasn’t quite reached the heights of some other primary candidates in both parties. Counting Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan, Trump has won a little over three-fifths of the total combined vote so far. That slightly exceeds the share that Reagan won in 1980 and equals the percentage George W. Bush won in 2000, according to results compiled by Northeastern University political scientist William Mayer. But Trump still lags behind the last two candidates who most closely matched his advantages as a quasi-incumbent: vice-presidents George H.W. Bush in 1988 (who hit 68%) and Democrat Al Gore in 2000 (who reached 75%), according to Mayer’s tabulation. ADVERTENTIE Trump’s total vote share may approach those heights after Super Tuesday, when six deeply conservative Southern states are among the 15 contests. But the size and consistency of the hold-out coalition behind Haley has surprised many in the GOP. Even with all his advantages, Trump in Iowa only won a little over one-third of voters with at least a four-year college degree. Haley beat him soundly among that group in New Hampshire and South Carolina. No exit poll was conducted in Michigan, but Trump’s totals lagged his statewide percentage there too in white-collar places like Oakland, Washtenaw and Kent counties. These trends are likely to continue on Super Tuesday. Haley’s consistent advantage among independents participating in the GOP primaries partly explains that trend, but even a substantial share of college-educated Republicans voted against Trump in the three states where voters were polled on Election Day. Moderates have flocked to Haley in large numbers in the early contests as well. Yet the clear message of the primaries is that those traditional center-right, often suburban, Republicans now constitute the subordinate minority in a party dominated by Trump’s more populist and volatile coalition. This power shift has changed both the party’s agenda and its priorities. The most significant shift is evident on foreign policy. When internationalist Dwight Eisenhower beat isolationist Sen. Robert Taft for the 1952 GOP presidential nomination, it marked a lasting turning point in the GOP’s internal balance of power. In every Republican presidency over the next six decades, the internationalist forces that supported a robust American role in the world set the course. Trump rejected that consensus when he was elected in 2016, but even during his tenure, Republican internationalists in Congress and his own administration resisted many of his efforts to downplay or abandon traditional alliances. Now that resistance is crumbling, both in the party’s elite and grassroots. A majority of House Republicans last fall voted against providing further aid to Ukraine; so did a majority of Senate Republicans this year. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs found last year that, for the first time in a half century of polling on American attitudes about foreign policy, a majority of Republicans now say the US would be better off to mostly stay out of global affairs; that view was strongest among the Republicans most sympathetic to Trump. More than any other prominent Republican, Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who was first elected the year Reagan won his 49-state landslide reelection in 1984, has defended the Reaganite vision of America as the stalwart leader of the free world – the “shining city on a hill.” McConnell’s announcement last week that he would step aside as Republican leader in November marked an implicit acknowledgement that in Trump’s GOP, that Reaganite torch is flickering. Like McConnell’s announcement, the choices by GOP elected officials in the primary contest signal their acknowledgement of the party’s direction. The share of GOP elected officials who have endorsed Haley isn’t anywhere near as large as her share of the total vote. (Her list of prominent endorsers doesn’t extend much beyond New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and two moderate senators who backed her in the past few days, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.) Meanwhile, Republicans are scrambling over each other to bend their knee to Trump. The long line of GOP elected officials endorsing Trump reflects many factors. He’s demolished the standing of his critics – from former Rep. Liz Cheney to DeSantis – among Republican voters, and most in the GOP have grown deeply reluctant to challenge him. Trump’s early primary victories, and huge lead in the national primary polls, convinced other Republican officials that opposing him was a suicide mission. But a deeper factor also explains the imbalance in support among GOP elected officials. Trump has changed the electoral incentives for virtually everyone in the GOP. In the Trump era, hardly anyone in the party running in a competitive state can now rely on as much support from the college-educated voters who once anchored their coalition. That means virtually all Republicans need big turnout and margins among the same blue-collar, non-urban and culturally conservative voters most passionate about Trump. That gives other Republicans a powerful electoral incentive to move in Trump’s direction, in tone and substance. “There is no doubt the composition of our base is changing,” said Wilson. The reluctance of other elected GOP officials to cross Trump in the primaries suggests he would face even less internal resistance in a second term than he did in his first. At times in that first term, GOP congressional leaders resisted him, particularly on foreign policy. That seems much less likely now, with staunch Trump loyalist Mike Johnson installed as House speaker and McConnell stepping aside as Senate GOP leader. “No one could make the argument that McConnell or Kevin McCarthy gave Trump any significant pushback,” said Jennifer Horn, a former Republican Party chair in New Hampshire who has become a staunch Trump critic. “And they weren’t enough. Neither one of them could be loyal enough for him.” As Trump nears a possible knock-out blow on Tuesday, the most important unanswered question is what Haley and her voters do in November. The primaries have shown her coalition is not nearly big enough to deny Trump the nomination. But it is more than big enough to deny him a general election victory. Through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a consistent four-fifths of Haley voters have said they don’t think Trump would be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime, according to the entrance and exit polls. In the AP/NORC VoteCast polls, two-thirds of Haley voters in Iowa, three-fourths in New Hampshire and about three-fifths in South Carolina said they would not vote for Trump in a general election. In practice, it’s unlikely that so many Haley voters would actually reject Trump. In the days before the South Carolina primary, almost everyone I spoke with at Haley events disparaged Trump but said they would still vote for him over Biden, whom they viewed as both a failure and too old for the job. Distaste for Biden’s record and capacity may severely limit Democrats’ ability to convert Republican voters skeptical of Trump into crossover voters for Biden, predicted William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who has sparred with the GOP as an adviser to prominent Democrats since the 1980s. “Yes, there is a division” among Republicans, Galston said. “But is it going to manifest itself where it counts, in votes cast [for Biden]? I don’t see a lot of evidence for that so far.” Yet Republicans skeptical of Trump have noted that Trump might not be able to survive if even a meaningful fraction of Haley’s voters ultimately reject him. With Biden facing plenty of cracks in his own coalition, the independent, center-right, college-educated Republican-leaning voters who flocked to Haley present probably Democrats’ best opportunity to find new voters. “I expect most of those [Haley] voters to ‘come home’ by November, but the big caveat is that if Donald Trump keeps picking at the scab rather than letting the party heal, he could absolutely hurt himself,” said GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, a CNN political commentator. “You need your party unified behind you to win a general in an era of deep polarization. You can’t afford to lose 10%+ to the other side.” One final point is clear as Trump nears his third consecutive GOP nomination: He isn’t relinquishing his grip on the party any time soon. Galston noted that since World War II, the GOP has undergone two previous fundamental shifts – when Eisenhower installed internationalism and greater acceptance of the New Deal as the party consensus in 1952, and when Reagan cemented a more aggressive economic, national security and social conservatism in 1980. “Trump is the third great transformer of the Republican Party since the end of the Second World War,” Galston said. “And like the previous two, the consequences will be with us for a long time.” Trump is consolidating his hold on the party infrastructure with the likely installation of his loyalists (including his daughter-in-law) in the top positions at the Republican National Committee. Ambitious younger Republicans are mostly defining themselves in his image. After the latest Ukraine vote, first-term Missouri GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt noted on social media that almost all of the 17 Republican senators elected since 2018 opposed the aid. Given the level of dominance Trump has displayed in this year’s primaries among both voters and elected officials, there’s no reason to assume that even if he loses a general election he wouldn’t try for the GOP nomination again in 2028, when he’d be about the same age Biden is now. But whether or not Trump regains the White House this year, and whatever he does next if he doesn’t, it seems certain that his shadow will envelop the GOP for years. “I think he will continue to be a significant influence over the party, its elected officials, its platform, its position on all of these important issues, for as long as he’s alive frankly,” said Horn. “I said back in 2016 that if the party embraced him and took him on, it would be 25 years before they were able to truly cleanse themselves of him. Now I don’t know if I gave it enough time,” she added.

What to expect from Colorado The mountain state - which is traditionally Democratic - has been in headlines as of late for its court’s decision to kick Donald Trump off its ballots, citing 14th amendment laws which bar insurrectionists from running for office. Earlier this week, the US Supreme Court unanimously ruled in favour of Trump, effectively reversing the decision and allowing him to run. How many delegates? 37 for Republicans and 72 for Democrats. Who will do best? Haley tends to perform better than Trump in Democratic states, but even with efforts to kick Trump off the ballot, his supporters in Colorado remained undeterred. The former president remained on the ballot as his case before the US Supreme Court played out, and those who wanted to cast a vote for him can do so. One piece of context: In Colorado’s primary elections, everyone can vote - meaning those unaffiliated with the Republican Party could cast their vote in the Republican presidential primary. How well Haley performs in this state could provide clues on Colorado’s overall support for Trump come November.

about 75 percent comes from tax, custums and 25 percent is inland revenue

He is very dedicated to his job he owns the haatuf news paper he was veery outspoken and anti Daahir rayaale and had been a loyal man to Kulmiye for over a decade

or do u mean the casayr who is Muse ismaciil or Muse arre one of those two that guy is qurbajoog soo kan ma sheegeysiid

the casayr i know is not even grx but he is habar love manu ahayn sarkaali Ina bixii xidhay two 3 years ago

Yusu gaboobe is a well known SNM veteran from hargeisa he joined the SNM as a young teenage boy i met him a few times in Jigjiga , his family was also established in jigjiga.. he is a good lad.. i think about 40 grand not much

Who is this colonel Cassayr i never heard of him yuu ka yahay reerka ada ba war haya cawa igu hooreysa what is his first name.. Do u mean odaygi anu wax isku ahayn eeh buurta korey kaas soooti la so celiye he is now chilling in addis ababa his living dream there is no Grx forces being led by any one

Well who says that is going to stop we will still use our ports , even today only less then 15 percent is used by Ethiopia . Ethiopia still doesnt fully use it , Berbera will still be used domestically by us we will just lose a potential client. But we neet to get the revenue from some place else most income comes from tax via berbera and that still will happen and the customs In kala baydh and wajaale and that is not gonne stop either. We will only make a killing if Ethiopia uses our ports 40 percent then we will make allot of money. As of today most of our income comes from our domestic use the tax we put on our imports and the live stock export.

These are captured people or dead people.. Somaliland army is in oog which is sool it controls the entire caynabo district and the bohol sub district of the district of xudun.. Its lost laascanood district and taleex district i can concede that. but thats not 60 percent xisaabta ku noqo

Yes if the fertile land they gave us as a lease gives us enough revenue to cover for the port revenue we made we just need anoter pillar of our economy we have livestock we have the port trade , if we are willing to lose the port trade then we need to get something in return something that fill that Gap. So far Ethiopia exchanged Ethiopian ariline share and recognition for a lease on the coast for their navy this is the facts we have. Nothing yet about a comerical port

Sixty percent SL lost only two districts in Sool pretty much nothing has changed it has still 85 percent of the Territory British Somaliland . So u dont have to overeact at all . if Somaliland lost 60 percent of its territory that means it would have lost all of sanaag all of sool and half of Togdheer and even parts of saaxil. When in fact it last only two districts of Sool. Which it will fight for to get it back . SL controls 5 out of the six capitals of all its regions , it only lost laascanood wiich it ruled for over 16 years

ofcourse not that would make Berbera useless that is economically suicide . How ever if they insist on having a port we need a new agreement where as they give us more concession such as fertile land in Ethiopia one of the coffee farms and where we can produce vegies and fruits and even export it . only then we can agree to something like that. a lease for a lease.. So far its just a naval base though and their share in berbera port and a possible joint Miliitary alliance These 3 principles we know . Comercial port has not been discussed so far

not everything is about elections and demcoracy we are talking about the nations interests. and u wanne take us back to party politics i never saw u as a person who is interested in the SL party politics who have no ideology differences Ciiro and Bixi are the same the same guys in bixiis team are also on ciiros team and u expect change Xilhibaan wabeeye a top chief of wadani was a minister in Siilaanyo xamarji top chief of wadani is an ex kulmiye governor For Hargeisa , Xirsi was the hidden prime minister of kulmiye chairperson of wadani . I mean what are u expecting . the reason why the SL goverment didint adress it was because farmaajo was the leader there is no point he hates Somaliland he isnt going to abide by the rule of law what can the SL goverment possibly do what would u have done farmaajo president of the bunker he says hawada aniga iska leh aabahay baan ka dhexlay iyo ayeeday doonbiro aniga iska leh hawada gaalkuna wa ii seexeey oke what would u have done ur mr bixii ur in hargeisa just elected u start ur fist year in 2018 bal maxaad samaayn lahayd. But good that u agree tha tthe walanweyn didnt keep their word

First of all ur blaming the Somaliland government because the koonfurians couldnt keep their word ., they signed something they backtrackted from it.. the Somaliland government is only to blame why it didnt confront it or didnt had a plan b , the fact that u dont even condemn the bunker for such theft and dishonesty is really astonishing. You can blame the Somaliland government for mishandling the laascanood conflict even for arresting journalist and what not. But u cant really blame them for being honest and went to these talks with an honest mindset to come to an agreeement the only tangible agreement the two agreed on was the airspace and they didnt even honer that. Yes the Somaliland government has no real Foreign policy or written foreign policy not cigaal had this not rayaale siilanayo biixi all the same. Rayaale albbaada AU bu yara qar qaraacay but after the fact finding mission dhag dembe looma taagin. Siilaanyo nothing much shefield and cardif ba Somaliland aqoonsaday and Birmingham and Bristiol but these things are Symbolic really.. Biixi made some good steps established formal ties with Taiwan. And now the whole sea for recognition if he pulls it off history will remember him as the greatest president of Somaliland ever . if he manages to Bring one country to recognise Somaliland its done just one he then wuxu jabiiye deyr aad u adag oo 33 sannoh loo haraadsana lets see if he can pull it off , i am not sure 50 50 haday itoobiya ku dhiirato aqoonsiga Somaliland allot of other African states ba ku xiga we will eventually be like polariso and kosovo the bunker claiming Somaliland but with allot of other countries recognising Somaliland .. Lets see if that happens the next ten years

The Brits are getting bolder this is the 7h MP in the house of commons that adressed the Somaliland recognition

What u been by Honest are u saying SL leaders lied to its people apart from Abdurahaam tuur alayaraxma raximin who never believed in the SL ideology the rest of the SL leaders that came after him whole heartly were behind it , ina cigaal ba yara ma ma leeyahay in between 1994 ila 2001 , but after 2001 he to gave up after the arta conference xamaasada dadka ka badan. Somaliland aqoonsi wa arin political ah its not legal its not something else .. EGYPT and the Arabs have been anti Somaliland more then then the bunker can ever be . If Somaliland fell in their geopolitical interest it was recognised in 1991, but that isnt the case. Hada imika meel laga noqda ma leh

Somali Prime Minister accuses Ethiopia of sabotaging Somalia-Somaliland talks Tuesday March 5, 2024 Mogadishu (HOL) - Somali Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre has accused Ethiopia of being determined to undermine the Somali government's efforts to continue talks with the breakaway region of Somaliland. Speaking in Mogadishu on Tuesday, Barre stated that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in Addis Ababa on January 1 betrayed Somaliland and emphasized that the Somali government has shown great patience with Ethiopia. advertisements "We have endeavoured to be patient as much as possible. Ethiopian troops are in our country, yet we haven't asked them to leave. Their ambassador remains here, and we haven't expelled him. Their planes continue to arrive, and we haven't barred them. We seek to maintain the interests of our people in harmony and good neighbourliness. We still hold hope that they will withdraw from the so-called MoU agreement," said the Prime Minister. Barre has called on Somaliland leaders to return to the negotiating table. In the last week of December last year, Somalia and the breakaway region of Somaliland agreed to resume dialogue to address outstanding issues after enduring political tensions and years of deadlock. The agreement, reached after two days of talks mediated by Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh, marked the first of its kind since 2020 when similar negotiations stalled. Following the Djibouti talks, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed invited Somaliland President Muse Bihi to Addis Ababa to sign a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on January 1, granting Ethiopia access to the sea. Somalia has stated that there is no room for mediation in the dispute with Ethiopia unless Addis Ababa cancels its controversial deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

Yes but how can u blame Kulmiye if the walanweyns didnt honer the deal i mean are u crazy what could siilaanyo possibly do start dacwo, they made a mistake they should have never had any sort of talks with walanweyn. you cant blame everything to Somaliland that is unfair .. heshiis ba la galay walanweynta diidnt honer u should call them out

your right there should be national interest how ever the Somaliland government doesnt want to upset clan region or other sort of constitencies . in my honest opinion i wouldnt lease any part of Somaliland to Ethiopia if it was up to me. How ever the Somaliland leaders and i understand where they coming from Ethiopia today is desperate to have a sea out let , and Somaliland is desperate to have recognition i understand where the SL governemt is coming from the only issue i have this is they shouldnt allow Ethiopia to have a sea out let, for that will allow Somaliland to have a set back economically , unless Ethiopia is willing to give something in return like farm land in Ethiopia to be leased to Somaliland in order for Somaliland to export fruit vegies coffie and even qat who knows that could work

its only good to choose for ceel sheikh thats a reason to stop the borama clan to stop crying thats onlysmart and not antagonise the borama clan Somaliland only lost 2 and a half districts and those 2 and a half districts are in sool and are laascanood district taleex district and half of the xudun district.. it still nothing to wory about prior to ina rayaale conquered laascanood we also had this issue , but we will recover SL will re take those two and a half districts in the sool region

Somaliland is a democracy the presidennt was elected and he will only leave through elections the parliament is elected every one is elected there is nothing there for u to dislike

its naval base and the president made it clear they will use berbera they have a stake in there they want to build a future port on the territory they want to lease how ever that is not feasble because ethiopia doesnt have the money to build a new port